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Old 08-23-2011, 04:28 PM   #1
Biggio509
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Suggestions for the pitching system

First let me start by saying I realize what I am going to suggest is a complete overhual of pitching and there are a lot of other priorites out there. Now, I have been thinking about after discussions of pitchers learning new pitches and I think there is a lot of room for improvement.

Current system
***edit***
This part is incorrect there are at least 10 pitches in the editor. I was going from memory and got it wrong.
4 broad pitch categories
1. Fastball includes sliders, 4 seam, 2 seam etc.
2. Curveball includes sinkers, splitters, normal curves
3. Changeup all non-breaking ball offspeed pitches.
4. Knuckleball
***** End of edit ****

For starters a pitcher needs 3 quality pitches. Stuff is determined by the best 3 pitches. So currently whether you are a SP or MR is judged solely by stuff. Stamina no longer seems to matter and control or movement have nothing to do with whether the AI places a pitcher as SP or MR. *** edit*** After testing I have found stamina matters but the cut off is low looks like 5 out of 20. So stamina matters but a pretty low stamina guy is still considered a starter. You don't have to have average stamina. IMO, it probably should be a little higher not a huge deal though. I also found to be suggested a starter the quality of your 3 pitches depends on your velocity.***

For Bullpen guys stuff is determined by your top 2 pitches. So a 2 pitch pitcher will not have the stuff to be a SP.

Problem
Stuff is the ability to get Ks. Therefore whether or not you can start depends solely on the ability to get strikeouts. The system ignores movement and control. Therefore a guy more like Greg Maddux may never become a SP. *** Maddux may not the best example because he was only slightly below league average Ks, in 1996 single season replay gives a 11 Ks. Maybe Phil Neikro is a better example." The AI will never choose a high movement, high control guy, with low stuff as a SP ***edit*** over a high control low stuff guy *** in the majors. So you don't get ***edit*** many*** classic no walks, few Ks, lots of contact for outs type pitcher. So guys who could thrive at place let Petco park and get shelled in the juice box just don't make it ***edit*** very often***.

Proposed system
SP's stuff is based only on 2 pitches. Really a starter just needs types of fastballs and and types of offspeed pitches those can be a curve or a changeup he really does not need both. What makes a SP a SP is weighted combination of stamina, stuff, movement, and control. Perhaps stamina must be above X to even be considered. That way you can have the lots of contact low hits low K guys who look good in front of a top notch defense and fall apart in front of a bad one thrive.

Reliever stuff is based on best pitch. Considering these are broad categories and not really individual pitches but a representation of a range of pitches, this makes sense. Brad Lidge has survived on a fastball and slider as his offspeed which are both in the fastball category. A reliever who pitches one or 2 innings can get by with one pitch category. A starter really needs an decidated offspeed pitch to keep hitters off balance after the first round through the lineup.

What this would do I believe is create a lot more borderline SP and long releif guys to fill the MR roles. It would also make what makes a SP more realistic.

***edit*** The proposed system in system is a little off later I came to a better idea of just weighting control and movement more and maybe have velocity affect stuff less. ***

Last edited by Biggio509; 08-26-2011 at 02:29 PM.
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Old 08-23-2011, 10:12 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Biggio509 View Post
First let me start by saying I realize what I am going to suggest is a complete overhual of pitching and there are a lot of other priorites out there. Now, I have been thinking about after discussions of pitchers learning new pitches and I think there is a lot of room for improvement.

Current system
4 broad pitch categories
1. Fastball includes sliders, 4 seam, 2 seam etc.
2. Curveball includes sinkers, splitters, normal curves
3. Changeup all non-breaking ball offspeed pitches.
4. Knuckleball

For starters a pitcher needs 3 quality pitches. Stuff is determined by the best 3 pitches. So currently whether you are a SP or MR is judged solely by stuff. Stamina no longer seems to matter and control or movement have nothing to do with whether the AI places a pitcher as SP or MR.

For Bullpen guys stuff is determined by your top 2 pitches. So a 2 pitch pitcher will not have the stuff to be a SP.

Problem
Stuff is the ability to get Ks. Therefore whether or not you can start depends solely on the ability to get strikeouts. The system ignores movement and control. Therefore a guy more like Greg Maddux may never become a SP. The AI will never choose a high movement, high control guy, with low stuff as a SP in the majors. So you don't get the classic no walks, few Ks, lots of contact for outs type pitcher. So guys who could thrive at place let Petco park and get shelled in the juice box just don't make it.

Proposed system
SP's stuff is based only on 2 pitches. Really a starter just needs types of fastballs and and types of offspeed pitches those can be a curve or a changeup he really does not need both. What makes a SP a SP is weighted combination of stamina, stuff, movement, and control. Perhaps stamina must be above X to even be considered. That way you can have the lots of contact low hits low K guys who look good in front of a top notch defense and fall apart in front of a bad one thrive.

Reliever stuff is based on best pitch. Considering these are broad categories and not really individual pitches but a representation of a range of pitches, this makes sense. Brad Lidge has survived on a fastball and slider as his offspeed which are both in the fastball category. A reliever who pitches one or 2 innings can get by with one pitch category. A starter really needs an decidated offspeed pitch to keep hitters off balance after the first round through the lineup.

What this would do I believe is create a lot more borderline SP and long releif guys to fill the MR roles. It would also make what makes a SP more realistic.
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Old 08-23-2011, 11:00 PM   #3
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Is his analysis of the current system wrong?

I'm not a fan of how the current system determines starters or allows you to develop pitchers.

Do scouts really know at 18 whether a guy has what it takes to be a starter or not?

It seems to me that all pitchers should be lumped together. Whether you're seen as a starter or reliver is based on your past outings, not your potential.
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Old 08-23-2011, 11:48 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Biggio509 View Post
Current system
4 broad pitch categories
1. Fastball includes sliders, 4 seam, 2 seam etc.
2. Curveball includes sinkers, splitters, normal curves
3. Changeup all non-breaking ball offspeed pitches.
4. Knuckleball
1. Sinkers should be in the "Fastball" category: 4-seam fastballs (standard fastball), 2-seams fastball (sinker), and cutters.
2. Sliders shoud be in the second "breaking ball" category with curves and knuckle-curves.
3. Splitters should be in the "Other offspeed" category with changeups, circle changes, forkballs, and screwballs.
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Old 08-24-2011, 12:22 AM   #5
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To piggyback off of the OP, I think each pitch should be rated in both "Stuff" and "Command." The aggregate of individual pitch "Command" should correlate with the pitcher's overall Control. These two components together determine the effectiveness of a pitch. An effective starter then needs 2+ pitches as in the current system (third can doesn't need to be great, but a least "show me" quality).

This isn't fully fleshed out, but it's always bugged me that pitches were rated only on Stuff, which is basically swing-and-miss, and not command. A bunch of pitchers might get a lot of tilt on their breaking pitches but simply can't throw it for strikes consistently. Breaking Control down into pitch Command makes sense to me.

The above could be a Stage One in re-working the pitching system. I'd also like Movement (basically HR rate) to be broken down into two components:

1) GB/FB rate
2) Pitching sense/"Pitchability".

This is because when evaluators talk about the "movement" that a pitcher gets on his pitches, this speaks directly to his ability to miss bats and not to HR rate, which is more closely tied to groundball rate. IMO, what works to limiting HRs and generate weak contact (effect on BABiP, possibly) is more the result of knowing how to change speeds, keeping the hitter off balance as to location and pitch type, and avoiding mistake pitches in the hitting zone. This key mental attribute of the pitcher works with GB/FB rate (also ideally in part with Stuff and Control/Command) to determine number of HRs given up.

In incorporating a mental attribute such as PS/Pitchability, an overhaul of Movement may be going beyond what the neat statistical correlations which are the basis of the current ratings in the game. However, studies have shown that y-t-y correlation in the Three True Outcomes (K, BB, HR) for pitchers is weakest in HR rate, and the strongest determinant of HR rate is GB rate. Movement as currently constituted is misleading both in name and statistical validity as an independent pitching attribute.

In light of the re-evaluation of DIPS, the PS/Pitchability rating would be a way to build into the game the limited control that pitchers do have in how hard a ball is hit. It could also be tied to the current or expanded system personality ratings; intuitively, one would link intelligence (baseball-wise) with pitching sense. I'm still wondering which rating, in the game's current setup, if any (Stuff or Movement?), has an effect in lowering BABiP, but I'm not sure if there's any statistical basis for tying this effect onto either K rate or HR rate.
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Old 08-24-2011, 01:41 AM   #6
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I like the idea there. I am not sure pitchability is a sexy term or one that most people would understand right away. I think I understand you point behind it. To me movement is more about keeping down in the zone and jamming hitters. To an extent that sounds like control but control in the game is about balls and strikes not where strikes go or how many near strikes a pitcher can throw at the right time. Maybe accuracy and control. Where control measures his ability to throw a strike and accuracy determines the ability to throw a strike where he wants in the zone and how much he misses high in the zone or across the middle of the plate. That way it could still be tied to HRs given up since there needs to be a stat in the DB to translate to the rating. I don't know movement may not be the most accurate term but it is not the worst.

My main concern is that SPs are tied really only to stuff and you see guys with less than 10 out of stamina and no control starting all the time. Honestly, in the majors control is the most important issue. You have give up a lot of HRs if you are strikeout guy and don't walk guys too much because they are solo home runs. If you can strike out 8 guys in a game but allow 10 walks you are not going to be a starter.

Honestly, I think my main "complaint" is that stuff is over rated for SPs and control and movement is underrated. Rob Dibble would be a star in the NL if control did not matter. Can't remember his name but that no control Cardinals pitcher they moved to the OF would still be a starter if it was all about stuff.
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Old 08-24-2011, 02:20 AM   #7
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My main concern is that SPs are tied really only to stuff and you see guys with less than 10 out of stamina and no control starting all the time. Honestly, in the majors control is the most important issue. You have give up a lot of HRs if you are strikeout guy and don't walk guys too much because they are solo home runs. If you can strike out 8 guys in a game but allow 10 walks you are not going to be a starter.
So that just killed the top 5 strikeout leaders of all time. Ryan sucked his 1st few yrs, Johnson didn't figure things out til what 5-6 yrs in the league. Koufax would never had made it. Carlton, Seaver, Schilling..Now granted their Stamina is great but they have no control their 1st 5 sns. No Fernandomania. And Maddux was better as far as pitches and mph before 1992 then after. and he wasn't the control guy back then though. avg 75 BB 144 k his 1st 5 yrs (not counting 1st yr in majors in 6 games).
Your system from my POV is just as flawed as the current 1, if not slightly more so. Sorry.

Rick Ankiel, The Cardinals gave up on him too early. His 1st full season was great 194 k 90 BB thats better then Wood, Zambrano and many more.

What would happen to a guy like Mark Buehrle who barely strikes out a 100 hitters a yr 121 k 49 bb avg minus 1st yr.
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:54 AM   #8
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You may disagree with my badly written typo laden sentences there. However, the point is control is important too. Pedro Martinez was nicknamed headhunter but he was not so bad that the walks were giving up a ton of runs. Thanks for reminding of Ankiel like Dibble his control got really bad not just walks but horrible wild pitches. I am not saying the system should just be based on control but stamina, control, and stuff all play a role in consideration of starting not just one factor.

The point is not to make control the only issue for SPs but to have a weighted system. You can trade off stuff with keeping it in the park and not walking many. Just as you trade off control and keeping it in the park with stuff. I guess what I am saying is system where you can deal with a starter with 5 to 6 walks per 9 innings if he can average 10 K per 9 and you deal with a guy with 4 Ks per 9 if he can manage 1 BBs per 9 (Greg Maddux). Both of these guys were star pitchers but in fictional leagues if Nolan Ryan has 20 Stuff with 3 good pitches and Greg Maddux has 7 or 8 stuff (less than half the K per 9 innings) Ryan starts and Maddux is likely long relief maybe borderline because you can't have 3 pitches and at least 2 of quality and get that low of stuff. The game ignores that although Maddux has low stuff he had incredible control and movement, few HRs too. That made him not only a starter but a star. The game probably never starts Maddux in the majors due to low stuff. That is if you had Maddux type ratings on a fictional player.

Right now the game ignores a player like Maddux's stamina, ability to pitch 200+ innings, very good movement (low HRs) and his incredible control. The game says he is borderline or long relief because his stuff is not good and he does not have 3 pitches that could cause a K.

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Old 08-24-2011, 11:30 AM   #9
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It definitely needs a slight revamp.

The other thing I'm not a big fan of is simply the number of 2-pitch relievers, what it means to have a "pitch". Take Soria in real life - he pitches 4 pitches regularly: fastball (75%), and then a mix of slider, curveballs, and changeups for the other 25%. Those are all distinct pitches - in OOTP, I would expect he would be rated for all 4. His pitch profile is practically the same as David Price. You really can't just use that to determine starter/reliever.


Really, what I'd like to see is probably some sort of points system overall. So to be a starter, you need some sort of combination of:
-high stamina
-good primary pitch
-good "out" pitch
-good extra pitches (or have a great top or out pitch instead)
-good control
-good movement

Assign basic ratings to each, and if you're good enough, you should be able to start. We see tons of guys in MLB who play as swingmen type roles, starting 4-10 games each year or so. I'd definitely like to see more guys like that develop, instead of having all these "RP-only" type players come up.
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Old 08-24-2011, 11:47 AM   #10
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there should be no such thing as only a RP type pitcher, there should only be a pitcher who is a RP because he's not good enough to be a SP, be it for control or "stuff" whatever that is. Otherwise i think every pitcher can start it's just that some you would never wnat to so you put them as a RP.

Is that not the reason why they do it in RL? am sure there are more factors but they all add up to being good enough to be a SP.
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Old 08-24-2011, 11:48 AM   #11
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Old 08-24-2011, 12:02 PM   #12
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there should be no such thing as only a RP type pitcher, there should only be a pitcher who is a RP because he's not good enough to be a SP, be it for control or "stuff" whatever that is. Otherwise i think every pitcher can start it's just that some you would never wnat to so you put them as a RP.

Is that not the reason why they do it in RL? am sure there are more factors but they all add up to being good enough to be a SP.
I agree. Theres only 1 reliever in the HOF to have never started a game..Bruce Sutter.
Even Mo was starter before becoming the best closer ever. I forgot who did this on 11, but they deleted all MR & CL so the game would be forced to move SP with lower STA to MR & CL. I have debated whether or not to try this.
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Old 08-24-2011, 01:50 PM   #13
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I agree. Theres only 1 reliever in the HOF to have never started a game..Bruce Sutter.
Even Mo was starter before becoming the best closer ever. I forgot who did this on 11, but they deleted all MR & CL so the game would be forced to move SP with lower STA to MR & CL. I have debated whether or not to try this.
I'd like to hear how they did this as i can see a potential problem already by the teams just changing the positions all on their own. They do it already by stamina and number of pitches so i don't know how to stop that without controlling all teams and that's to much work.

Should just show a player as a pitcher and base his role off his skills. Stamina should be the pitch count, either have it where he loses or gains based on if they start or not, or have some kind of training tied to how much they pitch.
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Old 08-24-2011, 03:27 PM   #14
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I'd like to hear how they did this as i can see a potential problem already by the teams just changing the positions all on their own. They do it already by stamina and number of pitches so i don't know how to stop that without controlling all teams and that's to much work.

Should just show a player as a pitcher and base his role off his skills. Stamina should be the pitch count, either have it where he loses or gains based on if they start or not, or have some kind of training tied to how much they pitch.
I checked all the SP vs MR posts going back to February for 11, I can't find it anymore.
Also I believe I said what I said wrong. He did this for each yrs draft so the draft would not have any MR or CL.
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Old 08-24-2011, 04:38 PM   #15
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there should be no such thing as only a RP type pitcher, there should only be a pitcher who is a RP because he's not good enough to be a SP, be it for control or "stuff" whatever that is. Otherwise i think every pitcher can start it's just that some you would never wnat to so you put them as a RP.

Is that not the reason why they do it in RL? am sure there are more factors but they all add up to being good enough to be a SP.
I guess you could say that but many times guys are slotted as closers early because they can bring heat but just don't have the stamina to start. Everything else is there but that can't pitch enough innings. I suppose you can call that not good enough to start but still there are guys slated for closer duties early on in the minors because they have the closer mentality and the ability. Then there are closers who were failed SPs like Gagne, Dotel, and Wagner.
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Old 08-24-2011, 05:25 PM   #16
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It sounds to me that half the problem is related to the AI selection process, rather than the pitching model itself. Medium K pitchers can do well in online leagues, for example, so it's not like they are incapable...and in those environments stamina is important becuase a 3-4 stamina SP will go only 70-80 pitches on average, no matter who good or bad their Stuff.

If the AI is not selecting the best starters, the problem is not necessarily the model, but the selection process.

Of course, the best solution to this is to join an online league. Personally, keeping the AI workable over the years is always going to be a pain. Markus's development team is just too small to expect it to stay stable. Oddly.
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Old 08-24-2011, 05:25 PM   #17
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That said, the pitching model could use some tweaking, of course.
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Old 08-24-2011, 05:30 PM   #18
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I guess you could say that but many times guys are slotted as closers early because they can bring heat but just don't have the stamina to start. Everything else is there but that can't pitch enough innings. I suppose you can call that not good enough to start but still there are guys slated for closer duties early on in the minors because they have the closer mentality and the ability. Then there are closers who were failed SPs like Gagne, Dotel, and Wagner.
Not sure "many times" is quite right. I think the mentality thing is bigger, but that's (1) very subjective, and (2) only really a very recent historical thing. Only in the last 5-10 years has a closer role actually emerged as a path that's really being developed early in a kid's career (even to being in college). Prior to that, guys got to the closer role for many, many reasons and in many, many ways.

Bottom line: I think the basic ideas you're discussing are in the right ballpark, but they need a huge amout of additional thinking and design work applied.
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Old 08-24-2011, 05:41 PM   #19
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Is his analysis of the current system wrong?
Yes, it is pretty much wrong in every single detail. Even the problem he claims exists in OOTP - that there aren't Maddux type pitchers - isn't a problem at all. There are tons of SPs like that in OOTP.
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Old 08-24-2011, 05:52 PM   #20
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To wit:

* it's not the ability to get Ks that makes an OOTP pitcher capable of starting. He needs minimum ratings in three pitches, so he needs a balanced repertoire. Those minimums are low, though, so you can easily have a very low K rate SP in the game;

* Stamina is certainly important. If a guy has a Stamina below 50/200, he won't be a good starter. If his Stamina is close to (but above) 50, he can start, but you'll only get 80 pitches from him;

* you're claims about how SP Stuff is determined are simply wrong;

* I have no idea where you're getting those pitch groupings from, or why sliders are mixed in with fastballs. OOTP doesn't use any classification like that.

I could go on.

____

In any case, I spent parts of two years on beta discussing the ideal pitching model, and if I learned anything from that, it's that absolutely no one agrees on how an ideal pitching model should work. This discussion could go on for a thousand posts (as it did in the OOTP design forum) and I guarantee you won't get close to any kind of consensus.
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