The would be poise rating- deconstructing an example

[Craig Scarborough]

I haven't scouted Armando personally, but growing up an O's fan, I always felt his problems were twofold: 1) he throws the ball with very little movement and 2) his command is "iffy". So, there will be guys he can throw the ball past when he's ripping it at 100 mph, but then there's the guy who's gonna be able to catch up to the fat pitch thrown right down the middle. His stats will look awesome, but he'll have the penchant to either give up the homerun or the rally to "professional" hitters.

That's just what I've seen, anyway.

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by Henry
I guess that's the issue - there's just as many here that feel it should be included as those that don't. In addition, these are in line with Markus' original ideas for the game.

I think the best way to handle these issues (clutch, poise, etc.) is to maybe have these asked as questions when you create the league. That way we could all have the configuration we want concerning attributes that can't be qualified through stats.

Henry

Henry, this is not as simple of a fix as you suggest. You cannot simply turn off the clutch rating in OOTP5, and I assume you won't be able to to so with poise in OOTP6.

As it currently stands, the only way to get rid of the clutch rating is to edit every single player in the entire league. Having the league agree on a configuration does you little good when the game is not configurable to that particular variable.

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by Swan
The one player I keep thinking of who has had great Velocity and "stuff", but seems to have terrible "poise" is Armando Benitez.

He has had a career of fantastic k/9 rates and k/bb rates, and and cosistently being stingy with avg against. Yet, he is legendary for being a choker and not having much composer in pressure situations (Just ask any Mets fan when they needed him to come through against the Yankees or Braves).

I am a big time subscriber to sabermetrics, Bill James and the like However, I am inclined to think that as much as the analysis of stats has been neglected for far too long by GM's in building teams, it would be wise to still take a look at how a player handles pressure situations still.

Dola

I see a big contradiction in your two statements here. You say you're a fan of sabremetrics, yet you're willing to stake Benitez's reputation on a handful of appearances that he blew up in.

If you check out Benitez's splits for 2001-2003, you can see that he has pitched very well, no matter what the situation (Runners on = 0.607 OPS, Scoring Position = 0.678 OPS, Bases Loaded = 0.653 OPS, Scoring Position/2 out = 0.638 OPS). In fact, he has pitched better with runners on base than with nobody on (Nobody on = 0.674 OPS) . Over that period, he has converted 87% of his save opportunities, which is a solid number.

Has he struggled against the Braves? Definitely, and the numbers back up that claim. But the question is did he struggle against them because he lacks poise or composure, or did he struggle against them because they had one of the best offenses in the National League over that period? I would tend to migrate toward the latter opinion, rather than the former.

[Henry]

Originally posted by Hammer755
Henry, this is not as simple of a fix as you suggest. You cannot simply turn off the clutch rating in OOTP5, and I assume you won't be able to to so with poise in OOTP6.

As it currently stands, the only way to get rid of the clutch rating is to edit every single player in the entire league. Having the league agree on a configuration does you little good when the game is not configurable to that particular variable.

But I think it could be simple. If the question to include or not include these things can't be asked at the time the league is created, then a smple "button" somewhere could set all these ratings to "zero" or "average", whichever was needed to effectively render it "null".

Henry

[clarnzz]

I hate the poise rating, I'm not even sure what it will do yet, but sounds like a big croc.

[Swan]

Originally posted by Hammer755
Dola

I see a big contradiction in your two statements here. You say you're a fan of sabremetrics, yet you're willing to stake Benitez's reputation on a handful of appearances that he blew up in.

My point is that can it be that stat heads lean too far to the right sometimes and compltely miss a legitimate meltdown because a player got his brain in a knot?

Benitez has fantastic career stats, esp peripherally speaking, which is where it counts most... but yet... yet... he just cannot handle the Braves or Yankees.... what are the stats *not* telling us?

[clarnzz]

Originally posted by Swan
My point is that can it be that stat heads lean too far to the right sometimes and compltely miss a legitimate meltdown because a player got his brain in a knot?

Benitez has fantastic career stats, esp peripherally speaking, which is where it counts most... but yet... yet... he just cannot handle the Braves or Yankees.... what are the stats *not* telling us?

That the Braves and Yankees mash fastballs?

[Swan]

Originally posted by clarnzz
That the Braves and Yankees mash fastballs?

You got it!! No other MLB team can mash fastballs! Only thE Braves and Yankees! Woohoo!

[Carlton]

freakin statheadz.

Everything can be thrown into a formula...
Personally I think Moyer is a great example, but let's reach back in the past and pluck out Cy Young. Basically if we just use a stat driven game...that might be fine for a fictional league where a 12 year career is exceptional....but we need something to keep these older junkballers alive. In theory if the stat guys get there way...every pitcher that has a 4 velocity and fair in Strikeouts will never be heard from...all pitchers will be cookie cutter high velocity high K/BB pitchers. What the hell is the diversity there?
Isn't it bad enough that in a fictional league after 10 years you have nothing but Good HR talent guys on every team? While the Good AVG, poor HR guys spend 6 years in the minors then disappear?

I HOPE the whole point of this Poise rating is to keep guys like Cy the #1 guy even if a 5 star Blue is in the rotation...something to keep an older guy from hitting retirement too early. How many people got Cy Young to 450 wins w/o editing his MASSIVE drops after 37?

However in historical league, I am getting quite po'd at a talented pitcher plummeting at 36...unless I play God and make sure no young pitcher is there to replace them...a 20 year career out of junkballers like Cy...Babe Adams, Phil Niekro etc. is damn near impossible. I won't talk about the hitters here because it is irrelevant...but let's just say OOTP has a "softball" engine, where a guy who has good talent in HRS and Fair in Average will be the starter over a guy with Brillant in average poor in HRS every freaking time.


I wish Markus would make an historic OOTP engine...and throw an Excel Macro program for the guys who love looking at numbers...but then again there is one...it's called Diamond Mind

[clarnzz]

All apologies, I guess it is that those teams and their veteran presence is the reason, as those factors exploit his lack of poise.

[danwaechter]

I think people are jumping to conclusions here. It sounds as if everybody thats complaining about the poise rating, is worried that it will make it less of a DIPS system. Fair argument, whether you agree or not, nothing wrong with stating your opinion. BUT, from what Markus said, people may be completely wrong about what it will do. Most seem to think that it will be like a clutch rating(which does absolutely nothing anyways), or a type of 'Hits' rating, which makes one pitcher have 80% of the groundballs be outs compared to another who gets 50% of the groundballs be outs, which is the complete opposite of DIPS. Obviously, that would kind of suck, atleast in my opinion, but from what Markus said, I understand it to just be another rating like 'control' or 'movement', only instead of effecting one or two particular results such as walks/homeruns, it affects everything, so that the pitcher would still have the appropriate number of K/IP etc.. But maybe i'm way off and everyone else is right, or maybe im just not understanding what ppl are saying, who knows. Maybe Henry or Steve can clear up exactly what the poise rating is.

[Crapshoot]

Clarnzz- ignore Carlton- this is a man who thinks any era of baseball after the deadball is useless anyway.. I don't recall a name of the top of the head, but someone here did a study on the percentage of old players falling of the wagon so to speak, and found it fairly well in line with MLB averages. Cy Young was a freaking exception- you can't expect an outlier in one universe to be replicated in another.

"use a stat driven game...that might be fine for a fictional league where a 12 year career is exceptional....but we need something to keep these older junkballers alive. In theory if the stat guys get there way...every pitcher that has a 4 velocity and fair in Strikeouts will never be heard from...all pitchers will be cookie cutter high velocity high K/BB pitchers. What the hell is the diversity there?"

- pick a pitcher genius - a high K/BB ratio has nothing to do with velocity, as that Moyer example proved, or as CY Yonug (him of the career 2.3 ratio, higher in his good years, lower in his bad years) would prove. Greg Maddux is a sabrematric darling who couldn't break 93 with a gale wind behind him- but he had a high K/BB ratio - hell, he never average so much as 9 K/9, but did well by limiting walks. Do some research before making ridiculous generalizations about sabremetrics and what sabrematicians like that have little basis in truth.



and this shows my problem-
"I HOPE the whole point of this Poise rating is to keep guys like Cy the #1 guy even if a 5 star Blue is in the rotation...something to keep an older guy from hitting retirement too early. How many people got Cy Young to 450 wins w/o editing his MASSIVE drops after 37? "

its massively idiotic to tell a game to disregard fact and logic - and that's what he's advocating here. Reprogramming the stupidity of real life (as in taking a 40 year old gassed veteran over a young pitcher just because the former drinks with the manager) should not be Markus' goal.

[Crapshoot]

Originally posted by Swan
You got it!! No other MLB team can mash fastballs! Only thE Braves and Yankees! Woohoo!

Benitez in the playoffs, career:
57.7 innings, 53 games, 3.58 ERA, 1.94 K/BB ratio.

Benitez in regular season:
584.3 innings, 564 games, 3.03 ERA, 2.43 K/BB ratio.

Yes, I can see how's he been an abject failure in the playoffs - that record probably has nothing to do with the fact that the teams he's facing in the playoffs are of a far better quality than those he faced in the regular season.

[matskralc]

Seriously, though, are we gonna get a "how often the rookies get taken out to dinner" rating?

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by Swan
My point is that can it be that stat heads lean too far to the right sometimes and compltely miss a legitimate meltdown because a player got his brain in a knot?

Benitez has fantastic career stats, esp peripherally speaking, which is where it counts most... but yet... yet... he just cannot handle the Braves or Yankees.... what are the stats *not* telling us?

So you're advocating adding a rating to a stat-driven game to represent that thing that the stats *aren't* telling us, even though you can't identify it, can't explain it, and most definitely can't quantify it?

[Swan]

Originally posted by Hammer755
So you're advocating adding a rating to a stat-driven game to represent that thing that the stats *aren't* telling us, even though you can't identify it, can't explain it, and most definitely can't quantify it?

Oh man.. not at all! I guess I am just trying to figure out why Markus is doing the whole "Poise" thing anyways.... the first time I heard about "poise', I posted in my IOSBL league, "Pitchers are not freakin' ballerinas!"


I just enjoy exploring all possible situations before I conclude decisively if something is inherently benificial or not.

That being said, I absolutely do not condone the use of poise in OOTP. The name itself is remarkably ridiculous.

I am still a card carrying stathead, and recognize that objectivity has to remain prevelant. I was simply coloring outside the lines for a bit.

[Carlton]

Listen

The whole point of recreating a baseball universe also delves into players such as Cy Young, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro and Koufax...whom when plugged in via Lahman's don't have the ratings that might make them succeed. Go ahead start a career in 1954 wait until Koufax comes in the next year...run the sim 10 times...tell if he gets out of the bullpen...maybe...if poise gives him a 50% shot of being succesful then I am for it. As for Cy...he is OUT of the rotation by 36...no 511 wins...not even 400...AND he still has good ratings! if poise let's him hold onto that starting spot...then I am all for it.

I am talking about the way OOTP utilizes what player is good or bad based on the CPU AI, and if they start or not based on what OOTP 'deems' to be a better rating. That's what poise will mainly be utilized for...it isn't a BIG rating...just like defensive in OOTP6 is NOT a big thing...but something that the CPU AI will look at more...so an A range .230 8 HR hitting SS won't be bucked out of his starting spot by a .240 E range SS that hits 20 HRS

You, however, are just dwelling on the fictional aspects of the game...which is fine and dandy for you...but for historical simmers like myself...if Poise is a small talent that may throw an older EFFECTIVE pitcher in the rotation, instead of having what I see in a solo fictional league of pitchers in and out of the door and a 12 year career is a milestone...then I am all for it.

As for the Velocity and K/BB statement that is what OOTP looks for now in regards to who starts (just like AVG and HRS for batters)...a slight bump over an effective pitcher in control and velocity will push him ahead of the other...even if it's a 7 over a 6 in walks...velocity DOES have an effect on if said pitcher will develop in K's...there was a thread on this...and without something like poise to keep pitchers in the game AND the rotation a little longer...it would empasize that ten fold. Do you even play the game or just play in an online league??
If just online...a little thing in regards to poise and how it affects the CPU AI shouldn't even bother you!

Have you ever done a study by playing 50 years of fictional players and seeing how players shuffle in and out even if they have a great year? That's idiotic in itself...but hey...whatever floats your boat. I am slightly satisfied that Markus did put in a talent like poise to satisfy historical and solo simmers...because like I said if you want no variables and just a very sound sabermatrics system...there IS a game like that called DiamondMind. It would be easier for you to ask them to throw ficitional players in the mix. You are not the only consumer here Aadik, just realize that. I may be a minority but I will speak up for my right to have some things be beneficial for historical careers!

As for Cy Young, historically speaking he was not a big exception, players such as Eddie Plank, Babe Adams, Rube Marquand, Big Six, Pete Alexander...all had long careers. Many hitters as well, w/o help from Balco

[matskralc]

Hey Carlton.

There's already a game made for historical replays.

It's called DiamondMind.

[Hammer755]

Carlton,

The foundation of the sim model should be based on a generic database of players. This is not an MLB sim, it's a baseball sim. Once the overall baseball model is refined, then it should be applied to a real-player universe. Sounds like you want it to work the opposite. If you want a real historical MLB sim, I would recommend you try DMB or SOM.

[clarnzz]

Originally posted by matskralc
Hey Carlton.

There's already a game made for historical replays.

It's called DiamondMind.

I was thinking the same things Matts. It is weird for someone to say they want OOTP to more mirror what happened in real life in historical replays, and telling the people who don't want such a thing to go play diamond mind.