Home Field Advantage? - Page 4

gmo · 04-22-2004, 02:52 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Le Grande Orange
You need to run A LOT of seasons to get the overall values correct. Even different 10 year spans can have quite different values. Consider the following:

1901-1910 = NL .5341, AL .5694
1911-1920 = NL .5365, AL .5375
1921-1930 = NL .5481, AL .5454
1931-1940 = NL .5485, AL .5488
1941-1950 = NL .5404, AL .5512
1951-1960 = NL .5437, AL .5348

But my 6-team 50 seasons are comparable to 30-team 10 seasons, and my .510 is nothing like that. I've got to bail for the night, but hopefully there will be more talk on this tomorrow.

kq76 · 04-22-2004, 03:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Le Grande Orange
It's a measure of how many more wins, on a percentage basis, a team is getting at home than it would be expected to have based on its overall winning percentage.

Consider a team which finishes 98-56 .636 overall. At home it goes 52-25 .675 and 46-31 .597 on the road. If you take the overall winning percentage and applied it to just the home games, that would yield 49 wins (.636 x 77). The team actually won 52 games at home, however. So, 52 / 49 = 1.0612, which is 6.12%. Therefore, the team won 6.12% more games at home than its overall winning percentage suggested it would.

Hope that makes it a bit clearer.

Yes, much clearer, thank you.

So column E = C - D and F = C / B.

Looking at column F, it looks like the better teams have less variance than worse teams. Any idea why? Better teams are always playing hard to hopefully win their division and worse teams play harder in front of their fans than on the road?

satchel · 04-22-2004, 04:54 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Hoiles
It’s hard to determine why teams perform better at home (could be the crowd, could be knowledge of the ballpark, could be just the comfort of staying at home). Bottom line—there is one in real life, so there should be one in the game.

amen.

JPWagner · 04-22-2004, 09:59 AM

I'll repeat a question I raised earlier in this thread...For those who support this Home Field Advantage modifier, do you expect your away loses would be affected as well, as the AI teams will have the HFA modifier?...... if the modifier creates an artificial advantage for your home games ,are you also at a disadvantage when playing away? If not, then I do not believe it will offer balanced and realistic results....

Henry · 04-22-2004, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by JPWagner
I'll repeat a question I raised earlier in this thread...For those who support this Home Field Advantage modifier, do you expect your away loses would be affected as well, as the AI teams will have the HFA modifier?...... if the modifier creates an artificial advantage for your home games ,are you also at a disadvantage when playing away? If not, then I do not believe it will offer balanced and realistic results....

Yes

SkyDog · 04-22-2004, 10:20 AM

The most important thing for everyone to understand is that the method of implementation is based on research and uses cold, hard numbers--not conjecture. Unless you want the unrealistic home/away splits to continue, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever not to turn this feature on--it mirrors the way things really work.

ctorg · 04-22-2004, 10:23 AM

I haven't played with this feature yet, but I'm glad it was added.

Chappy · 04-22-2004, 10:59 AM

Now the All-Star game means something! Oh wait, home field advantage in the World Series still just alternates in the OOTP universe, right?

ctorg · 04-22-2004, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Chappy
Now the All-Star game means something! Oh wait, home field advantage in the World Series still just alternates in the OOTP universe, right?

Ugh. I hate All Star games. I just turn it off.

Whitey · 04-22-2004, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ctorg
Ugh. I hate All Star games. I just turn it off.

"To each his own" is a great strength in OOTP. I wouldn't even dream of a league without an All Star game.

sporr · 04-22-2004, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SkyDog
The most important thing for everyone to understand is that the method of implementation is based on research and uses cold, hard numbers--not conjecture. Unless you want the unrealistic home/away splits to continue, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever not to turn this feature on--it mirrors the way things really work.

That's exactly right. I didn't even think that it should be an option for people to turn off.

JPWagner · 04-22-2004, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Henry
Yes

Thanks Henry, I'll turn it on now....

Le Grande Orange · 04-22-2004, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by gmo
But my 6-team 50 seasons are comparable to 30-team 10 seasons, and my .510 is nothing like that. I've got to bail for the night, but hopefully there will be more talk on this tomorrow.

It may be the low number of teams in your league; perhaps 6 teams just doesn't provide enough of a team "sample size" so to speak. Or, it could be that the values in the equations that the game uses to generate home field results need to be tweaked somewhat.

If you could, try a 50 year sim of an 8 team league playing 154 games and see if it comes out any different from your 6 team league.

Dagrims · 04-22-2004, 02:32 PM

I thought a component of home-field advantage was that the home team always got a final chance to keep the game going or win it. If the visiting team scores first in the 10th, the home team can still win, but not vice versa.

gmo · 04-22-2004, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Le Grande Orange
It may be the low number of teams in your league; perhaps 6 teams just doesn't provide enough of a team "sample size" so to speak. Or, it could be that the values in the equations that the game uses to generate home field results need to be tweaked somewhat.

If you could, try a 50 year sim of an 8 team league playing 154 games and see if it comes out any different from your 6 team league.

I'm kind of burned out on simming for the moment, that's why I was hoping others might post some relatively long-term results from other leagues. My little (small) league with the teams playing either only all home or all away games is certainly not realistic, but I would be surprised if that mattered.

I would figure the .540 overall would be the option goal, but that is just a guess. I figure the 83% better in a season at home than away would fall out naturally from the overall home win pct, though I haven't done that math. To reiterate my initial point in this thread, when I got ~.510 with 6.00 and then with 6.01 with the HFA option enabled too, it raised many questions in my mind. Did I just pull two odd samples out of the game? Was HFA in 6.00? Is overall home win pct with HFA in the game not designed to be .540? I would need to see more data to even speculatively answer those questions, and I'm tired of making it myself for the moment.

Hmm, I've got some stuff written up that I think might go well in a new thread...

04-22-2004, 09:59 AM	#64 (permalink)
JPWagner Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 200	I'll repeat a question I raised earlier in this thread...For those who support this Home Field Advantage modifier, do you expect your away loses would be affected as well, as the AI teams will have the HFA modifier?...... if the modifier creates an artificial advantage for your home games ,are you also at a disadvantage when playing away? If not, then I do not believe it will offer balanced and realistic results.... __________________ Formerly J P Falcon....changing screen names is what happens when you do not write down your password, forget it, and then change your email address!

04-22-2004, 10:20 AM	#66 (permalink)
SkyDog Front Office Football Central Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Souf Cackilacky Posts: 1,515 Thanked 15x in 6 posts	The most important thing for everyone to understand is that the method of implementation is based on research and uses cold, hard numbers--not conjecture. Unless you want the unrealistic home/away splits to continue, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever not to turn this feature on--it mirrors the way things really work. __________________ "I suspect Markus is more like Yoda, without the wisdom"---An unnamed member of the FOBL.

04-22-2004, 10:23 AM	#67 (permalink)
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Brooklyn, NY Posts: 9,701 Thanked 91x in 51 posts	I haven't played with this feature yet, but I'm glad it was added. __________________ THE VERY US ARTISTS - A project for musicians and visual artists My music Currently reading: Thirteen by Richard Morgan "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

04-22-2004, 10:59 AM	#68 (permalink)
Chappy Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Raleigh, NC Posts: 2,642 Thanked 4x in 4 posts	Now the All-Star game means something! Oh wait, home field advantage in the World Series still just alternates in the OOTP universe, right? __________________ NPBL - Commissioner - Pennsylvania Freedom

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04-22-2004, 02:32 PM	#74 (permalink)
Dagrims Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Orlando, FL Posts: 3,828 Thanked 6x in 1 post	I thought a component of home-field advantage was that the home team always got a final chance to keep the game going or win it. If the visiting team scores first in the 10th, the home team can still win, but not vice versa.