Runs Scored - Arod/Garlon Database

halos17 · 02-01-2007, 12:26 AM

Looking for some suggestions out there, or maybe someone already has a solution. I've got my 1901 league to sim accurately in all the statisical areas except for runs scored and stolen bases. I'm using Arod/Garlon's latest database.

I cannot for the life of me get the run scoring to increase and I consistently get about 75% of the actual 1901 totals. I thought that the 55% stolen base rate set in A/G database was causing the low run totals with the low SB success rate possibly wiping out many run-scoring chances. However, I increased the success rate thru the engine file and it did affect SB % but unfortunately this did not increase the runs scored.

Is there a way to tweak this to increase runs scored? Even getting the totals in the 90% range would be acceptable to me. Not a killer, but I'd still like to get it as close as possible.

No Pepper · 02-01-2007, 11:52 AM

Perhaps by adjusting fielding percentage (ie errors) via the engine file? I know I've done this in the past but I did not measure its effect on runs scored.

halos17 · 02-01-2007, 12:12 PM

Ahh, great idea. I didn't even think of that. I wonder if I can compare the sim errors to actual errors?

Bluenoser · 02-01-2007, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by halos17

I thought that the 55% stolen base rate set in A/G database was causing the low run totals with the low SB success rate possibly wiping out many run-scoring chances.

I don't understand this. Ratings are not set in a DB. The game imports players and bases ratings on criteria you set to base them on during import. ie: remainder of career, whole career.

Have you adjusted your league totals?

halos17 · 02-01-2007, 01:22 PM

Hey Bruce,

Arod/Garlon added CS data from those years in which it was missing. Since data wasn't available they estimated it and it turns out that the rate was around 55%. So every player steals at about that rate.

I only mentioned that as a possible effect of my real problem, which is run-scoring. It is just not accurate.

I have the league totals adjusted to where I want them, but it is just not producing accurate run totals. I think that low error totals may be the culprit. I'm at work now and can't compare my sim to actual.

If I remember correctly, you do alot of historical simming. Have you ever run into this?

halos17 · 02-02-2007, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by No Pepper

Perhaps by adjusting fielding percentage (ie errors) via the engine file? I know I've done this in the past but I did not measure its effect on runs scored.

Feilding % was indeed the culprit. I adjusted the error frequency upward and I'm getting near perfect run scoring results now. Everything is just how I want it. Thanks for the suggestion Pepper!

02-01-2007, 12:26 AM	#1 (permalink)
halos17 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 58	Runs Scored - Arod/Garlon Database Looking for some suggestions out there, or maybe someone already has a solution. I've got my 1901 league to sim accurately in all the statisical areas except for runs scored and stolen bases. I'm using Arod/Garlon's latest database. I cannot for the life of me get the run scoring to increase and I consistently get about 75% of the actual 1901 totals. I thought that the 55% stolen base rate set in A/G database was causing the low run totals with the low SB success rate possibly wiping out many run-scoring chances. However, I increased the success rate thru the engine file and it did affect SB % but unfortunately this did not increase the runs scored. Is there a way to tweak this to increase runs scored? Even getting the totals in the 90% range would be acceptable to me. Not a killer, but I'd still like to get it as close as possible. __________________ "The man who was the spearhead of the Dodger offense throughout the year, who saved them in the LCS, will not see any action tonight, for sure." -- Vin Scully on Kirk Gibson, 1988 WS Game 1

02-01-2007, 11:52 AM	#2 (permalink)
No Pepper All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Milwaukee, WI Posts: 1,002 Thanked 126x in 56 posts	Perhaps by adjusting fielding percentage (ie errors) via the engine file? I know I've done this in the past but I did not measure its effect on runs scored. __________________ Current Dynasty: The Slippery Elm Boys Historical Uniforms: Major, Minor, Latin and Negro Leagues 19th century uniforms and templates. Logo Collection

02-01-2007, 12:12 PM	#3 (permalink)
halos17 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 58	Ahh, great idea. I didn't even think of that. I wonder if I can compare the sim errors to actual errors? __________________ "The man who was the spearhead of the Dodger offense throughout the year, who saved them in the LCS, will not see any action tonight, for sure." -- Vin Scully on Kirk Gibson, 1988 WS Game 1

02-01-2007, 01:22 PM	#5 (permalink)
halos17 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 58	Hey Bruce, Arod/Garlon added CS data from those years in which it was missing. Since data wasn't available they estimated it and it turns out that the rate was around 55%. So every player steals at about that rate. I only mentioned that as a possible effect of my real problem, which is run-scoring. It is just not accurate. I have the league totals adjusted to where I want them, but it is just not producing accurate run totals. I think that low error totals may be the culprit. I'm at work now and can't compare my sim to actual. If I remember correctly, you do alot of historical simming. Have you ever run into this? __________________ "The man who was the spearhead of the Dodger offense throughout the year, who saved them in the LCS, will not see any action tonight, for sure." -- Vin Scully on Kirk Gibson, 1988 WS Game 1

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