Historical questions

[thehef]

In my historical league where I'm pretty much hands-off, running straight thru from 1920 until the early 70's, I am wondering about the following:

Willie Davis spent most of the 65, 66, and 72 seasons on the reserve roster. This is despite only small dips in ratings in 65 & 66, no real dip for 72; and not having superior options - as far as I can tell - in centerfield on those Dodger teams... ('65 featured Crawford & L. Johnson starting in CF; in '66 it was Crawford, and 72's OF was Paciorek LF, Crawford CF, F. Robinson RF).

Claude Osteen, after some solid seasons as a starter including nice, realistic stats in 1966, was relegated to the bullpen from 67 on. Starting Dodger staffs were then:

67: Koufax, Drysdale, Singer, Alan Foster
68: Koufax, Drysdale, Singer, Sutton (ok maybe a tough rotation to crack)
69: Singer, Sutton, Koufax, Foster/Bunning
70: Sutton, Koufax, Foster, Singer/Drysdale
71: Sutton, Singer, Downing, Koufax
72: Sutton, Singer, John, Joe Moeller

The 1972 Red Sox predominantly started Tommy Harper at 2B, Yaz at 3B, and Petrocelli at SS, when - in real life - their infield was nothing like that. Luis Aparicio's sim-retirement surely had something to do with that, but Harper at 2B and the left-handed Yaz starting over 150 games at 3B?

Bobby Murcer, 1970
real life = CF 155 games
Sim = Yankees' regular 3B

Who was in CF instead of Murcer?
Ron Woods:
real life = CF 9 games, LF 2, with .227 avg
Sim = Yankees' regular CF, 130 games, .271, 20 HR

Other than Aparicio's retirement and Koufax' non-retirement, I couldn't find injuries or anything else to explain these, and they are just examples. I have seen similar... And if I did find ratings to explain these, then at least that would make some sense...

My settings are as follows:

player & picture options
batter/pitcher aging & development speeds = 1.000
talent change randomness = 1
disable player development = checked (yes)

AI options
lineup selection = traditional
AI player eval options = defaults

Roster Rules = defaults, 25/40, etc.

Historical Rules
using real txns
not using historical lineups
auto-expand league is on
base roles/positions on RL stats - yes
auto-adjust league strategy - was No until early 60's (by accident), but is now Yes
retire acccgd to history - no
players miss seasons accdg to history - no

player ratings
recalc based upon real status after each year - yes
ratings recalc base = 3 yrs
double weight of curr yr stats = no
base ratings on neutralized stats
base potential ratings on remaining yrs of career
base rookie fielding ratings on 3-yr period
base pitcher stamina on 3-yr period
auto-adjust modifiers after each season = Y

nothing tinkered with in Strategy settings... player database is the one in the game...

Although I don't mind some variation - especially when it's explainable due to injury, retirements, or whatever, I'm looking for players to play their positions & assume roles closer to history. Any ideas if any settings might be wrong, etc.?

[pstrickert]

Your problems might be related to:

a) ratings based on neutralized stats (instead of real stats)
b) ratings recalc base = 3 yrs (instead of 1 yr)

I'll cut-and-paste an explanation about using neutralized stats. (See below.) It was written by Garlon, OOTP's Historical DB-meister. Please review it at your convenience. In the meantime, I'll use one of your examples: Claude Osteen being bumped from the Dodger rotation in 1967 in favor of Alan Foster.

Foster's stats IRL:

1967: 4 G, 2 GS, 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA
1968: 3 G, 3 GS, 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA

The neutralized DB prorates his real-life stats. So, when OOTP uses the neutralized DB to rate Foster, it bases the ratings on these stats:

1967: 9 G, 6 GS, 40 IP, 3.60 ERA
1968: 9 G, 7 GS, 40 IP, 3.60 ERA

He is a completely viable option for the AI in the Dodger rotation. Thus, someone -- in this case, Osteen -- is demoted to the bullpen.

EDIT: Osteen's stats in the neutralized DB:

1967: 39 G, 39 GS, 271.2 IP, 4.44 ERA

The other factor is 3-yr recalc. OOTP will use the previous season (1966), current season (1967), and next season (1968) in calculating ratings for Foster. Since he didn't pitch at the major league level in 1966, he is given the value of a replacement player (I think). But the next two seasons, Foster compiled very good stats (according to the neutralized DB). Thus, using 3-yr recalc, he will receive good ratings for the 1967 season. Better, apparently, than Osteen.

That's the quick-and-dirty explanation. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

And this is what Garlon posted on the beta boards. (I doubt that he would mind me sharing this information.)

Base Player Ratings and abilities on Neutralized Stats or Real Life Stats

The Real Life Stats option is pretty much self explanatory. However, I think there may be a great deal of confusion about our Neutralized Stats database. The Neutralized Stats option provides the most realistic outcomes and ratings for players since these stats are park- and run- neutralized. So players like Willie Davis (1960-1979) who played much of his career for the Dodgers in the toughest hitter’s ballpark in the league are not at a disadvantage in the simulation. Neutralizing his stats allow such hitters to perform to their ability had they been in a different hitter’s environment. If you want more information on how this neutralization process woks check out the section on Willie Davis in The New Bill James Historical Abstract pgs 740-743. The same neutralization process can be explored on baseball-reference.com also.

So since the neutralization process is also run-neutralized (750-run per year environment) will players overperform? No, absolutely not. Remember, we model the league environment from season to season. So even though the player stats are neutralized to a 750-run environment, they will not necessarily be playing in a 750-run environment when you simulate. In the end, the players perform exactly as they should over the course of their career. With the Neutralized Stats no hitters in OOTP will have boosted abilities because they racked up their real life stats in great hitter’s parks, nor will any pitchers have increased abilities because they played in great pitcher’s parks. Likewise, no hitters or pitchers will end up under-rated because they played in poor hitter’s or poor pitcher’s parks respectively.

In addition to the Hitter and Pitcher Stats being neutralized in OOTP, we also went to the extra extent of Neutralizing all of the historical defensive stats as well. Defenders on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs do not get as many opportunities in the field to make outs and that distorts their raw real-life Put Out and Assist totals and therefore their Range Factors. Our neutralized stats take into account pitching staff strikeout rates, excess left-handed or right-handed pitching, team defensive efficiency, groundball rates, team expected double plays and other variables that would otherwise not allow for direct comparison of defenders based on their real-life stats. Now we can do this. We even went to the extent o determining things like Unassisted Put Outs by 1Bmen so that we can accurately rate them too.

So now you are saying “sure even if you can neutralize their defensive stats you still don’t know how many defensive innings each player in history had because the real life data only goes back about 50 years and therefore you still can’t know their true Range Factor”. Well guess what, we actually do have player defensive inning outs going all the way back to 1871 in our database. For more information check out the section titled Estimated Defensive Innings in Bill James Win Shares pgs 155-160. We even went the extra step of determining Outfielder Innings played each season at each of the 3 outfield positions for each player, not just their total outfield defensive innings.

So if you ever wondered “how good would player X be if he didn’t play half of his games at Coors Field?” now you can find out in the simulation with our neutralized stats.

In addition to this we also filled in the gaps in player career when In real life they did not play because they were in the minor leagues or because they were injured. In situations in which a player only had a handful of AB’s in a season we pro-rated that season of his neutralized stats up to 250 AB basing the missing AB’s on his career averages. This eliminates problems with trying to accurately rate players if they only had a small sample size of AB in a season

[Spritze]

The default Game Engine Settings put Offense well above Defense so you'll get outcomes like these from time to time. Change the Engine.cfg file to make defensive ratings way more powerful for roster construction and many/most of these sorts of situations go away. Yaz, Murcer, Harper all started as infielders for instance so without defensive skills mattering very much the AI tries to put the best offensive lineup it can on the field. That is usually mostly why you get what you see. If you don't like it change it. The option is available.

[Spritze]

Originally Posted by pstrickert

Foster's stats IRL:

1967: 4 G, 2 GS, 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA
1968: 3 G, 3 GS, 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA

The neutralized DB prorates his real-life stats. So, when OOTP uses the neutralized DB to rate Foster, it bases the ratings on these stats:

1967: 44G, 29 GS, 205.2 IP, 2.16 ERA
1968: 43G, 30 GS, 204.2 IP, 1.72 ERA

Well, this is not at all how the neutralized db would rate Mr. Foster. 40 ip is the min so only about 25 innings of replacement Foster would be added to his RL stats. Then OOTP would rate him based on those totals. Replacement Fosters 25 innings would either consist of stats based on his career or if they were to few then stats based on a replacement level pitcher in 1967 and 1968 would be used.

[pstrickert]

Then I stand corrected. And I've edited my earlier post.

[Spritze]

Is OK, you can sit if you want to.

[pstrickert]

Thanks.

[pstrickert]

I imported the '67 season using neutralized stats. Osteen is in the LA rotation; Foster is not. In fact, Foster is relegated to the reserve roster.

[thehef]

Thanks pstrickert & Spritze...

I think I can understand - from Spritze's explanation about the Game Engine Settings - how Murcer ended up playing 3b and how Yaz & Harper ended up on the BoSox' infield.

Spritze - Regarding changing the engine.cfg file so "many/most of these sorts of situations go away," what amount of increase would you recommend? 20% increase to GAME_DEFENSE_INFLUENCE?

As for Osteen, I can see how - given Koufax' extended career in the sim, and Osteen's neutralized '67 stats (4.44 ERA at a time when pitching ruled) - he ended up in the 'pen...

(pstrickert - I'm guessing part of the reason Osteen was part of the rotation in your '67 import was because if you import in '67, Koufax is not active.)

Still not sure about Willie Davis (& Ron Woods). If I'm using three-year recalc to "smooth things out" (as per Spritze or someone in another thread), I don't see how that would hurt Davis. In fact, as I mentioned, Davis' ratings looked good enough - compared to others on the team - to where he should've at least been on the big-league roster, and likely as a starter...

As for neutralized stats, the long quote from Garlon not only includes "... Neutralized Stats option provides the most realistic outcomes and ratings for players," but also specifically references Willie Davis in saying he is "... not at a disadvantage in the simulation." And I found this elsewhere, from Garlon:

You can choose to base player ratings on their real life stats or their 750-run environment neutralized stats. The neutralized stats is the way to go every time. I would also suggest using 3-yr recalc. 3-yr recalc will base a players ratings on 3-yr spans instead of just the year in question. So if you are playing the 1950 season, it will look at a players stats from 1949-1951 to generate his ratings and therefore abilities. The larger sample size makes the outcomes more stable and realistic.

So I guess I'm still not sure what's going on...

[Spritze]

Originally Posted by thehef

Spritze - Regarding changing the engine.cfg file so "many/most of these sorts of situations go away," what amount of increase would you recommend? 20% increase to GAME_DEFENSE_INFLUENCE?

I personally use an extra 80% or more but you need to find your own sweet spot.

Originally Posted by thehef

Still not sure about Willie Davis (& Ron Woods). If I'm using three-year recalc to "smooth things out" (as per Spritze or someone in another thread), I don't see how that would hurt Davis. In fact, as I mentioned, Davis' ratings looked good enough - compared to others on the team - to where he should've at least been on the big-league roster, and likely as a starter...

In my current game W. Davis plays every year and is a surefire H-O-F'er. I don't use the same game settings you do though so I semi-suspect that is the cause for you. Mr. Davis has been on the Houston Colt 45's for the majority of his career for instance. The Dodgers traded him away after his (very good) rookie season for infield garbages . Its most likely all in the differences, so just play the game the way you like it. Don't worry, be happy.

[David Watts]

How do you change this engine.cfg file?

[pstrickert]

Main Menu

-->

Preferences

-->

Troubleshooting

-->

Open folder containing file app.cfg

-->

Open engine.cfg

[Spritze]

Choose Setup Menu, Preferences, Troubleshooting, open folder.

What he said ..........

[plannine]

Originally Posted by Spritze

I personally use 80% or more but you need to find your own sweet spot.

So are you increasing the default number from 100 it to 180 or changing it down to 80?

[Spritze]

180

[thehef]

I am not finding that the GAME_DEFENSIVE_INFLUENCE change to 180 is making a significant difference. As an example, without injuries having played a role, the 1968 Orioles starting infield includes Brooks Robinson at second base, Davey Johnson at short, and Don Buford at third (at least Boog is still at firstbase), with Mark Belanger as a backup... And in another sim where I tried 180, Steve Garvey spent a year or two in the mid-70's as the Dodgers' starting SS...

[Spritze]

Probably just means offense is so much more important than defense not even adding 80 points of influence adjusts it to where you'd like it to be.

Is it any better at all?

Perhaps this adjustment is no longer used by the game?

[thehef]

Is it any better at all?

Without extensive analysis it's hard to say it's not any better, but I'd have to say no. I even tried tweaking AI options where I bump up Current Year Stats Weight to 65 (and all others are 15 or less) and, so far - no matter what - I can't seem to keep the game from putting Yaz at 3B and Garvey at SS (not every year, but eventually, for a few years).

And - from another post (http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...-too-high.html) - I keep getting too many SP's with wins in the high 25's & low 30's, and the best teams are routinely winning over 110 games (a few have even cracked 120).

The only common link between all of my test runs seems to be using neutralized stats. But I have a hard time believing that could be the problem because the noots have always seemed to be the way to go in the past...

For my next test I think I will try throwing a boat-load of paint at the wall by tweaking HISTORICAL_SP_STAMINA_CALCULATION_IPGS_WEIGHT down, further increasing the weight of Current Year Stats, further increasing GAME_DEFENSE_INFLUENCE, and maybe even doubling weight of current year stats on the 3-yr recalc.

One thing I do not want to try tweaking is Pitcher Stamina on the Strategy panel. This is because I do not want to end up having to tweak a setting on an as-I-go basis... (Recalling - without fondness - the days of having to tweak league totals and modifiers before each season...)

I don't recall seeing stuff this whacky on v9... Anyone experiencing similar results? Anyone w any ideas?

Thanks

[Spritze]

All I can venture is that you must be using an unusual setting somewhere.

What you describe just does not happen in my leagues. Ever.

Basically I newt, 3 year recalc w/dbl weight, no real transactions nor lineups, everything else pretty much default near as I can disremember.

[thehef]

I just did another test - this one w Double Weight - and, sure enough, by mid-70's Garvey is LA's starting SS. Only difference from your (Spritze's) settings above is that I have real txns on.

Spritze, what are you using AI Player Eval Options, Aging/Devel, Talent Chg Randomness, and Rookie Fielding? You said "defaults" so that's probably them, but just wanted to verify.

Thanks