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Old 12-28-2012, 11:29 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Recalc stats based on wrong year?

Hello all.

I'm playing a replay league style setup, from the 1930 season onwards. I'm not managing any teams and have historical lineups/transactions switched on, and recalculating player ratings based on real stats at the end of every year.

I have the 'rating recalculation base' set to 1 year with player development switched off, with the idea that players would hopefully perform quite closely to their actual performance each season.

I don't know where it happened, but I've started noticing that player ratings seem to be based on their performance from the following year in real life. So in 1955, Roy Campanella of the Dodgers hit 318/395/583 but his in-game ratings for the 55 season seem to be based on his following year's numbers which were much worse. It's the same for all the other players. I see guys who only had a few at-bats in real life getting great ratings because they had a breakout year the following season in real life.

Have I messed up the settings somehow? Anyone else ever notice this problem?
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:54 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I've never heard of this. I would have to think that something went wrong in your setup. Did you change the starting year for the league? Are you using the default database? Are you sure your recalc and other settings are correct?
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Old 12-31-2012, 08:52 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I am having this problem too, and I don't know what is wrong. The ratings are being based on a year ahead of the current year and I do not know how to change it.
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Old 12-31-2012, 03:39 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I think you two may have found a problem. I'm doing some testing right now and the initial results don't look good. I started a historical game in 1950 with 1-year recalc, and there are definitely players who seem like their ratings are inflated when they shouldn't be. However, some of these players were not in MLB in 1951 or didn't have good seasons in that year either. So the problem may not be that the game is using the next season as a basis.

I'm doing more testing and simming into the future. If I can confirm that something is really wrong, we'll need to get this reported as a bug ASAP.
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Old 12-31-2012, 08:23 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I did multiple simulations to test and something is definitely wrong. Looking at Lou Gehrig's simulated stats showed me that they are basing the recalc on the next season instead of the current season. Because in my simulation, in 1938 he had like 500 at bats but only hit around .200 with 10 home runs but in in 1938 in real life he hit .295 with 29 home runs. 1939 was the year where he only hit .147 in 33 at bats due to being diagnosed with the disease. So they are basing the 1938 ratings on the 1939 season. This is a bug in the game
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Old 12-31-2012, 09:03 PM   #6 (permalink)
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This is all very strange. In my testing, I just checked Lew Burdette, who pitched only 1.1 innings in 1950 and 4.1 innings in 1951. He had a breakout season in 1952 with a 3.61 ERA in 137 innings. But in OOTP, his 1951 ratings are very poor. He's been adjusted as he should be.

If the game was consistently calculating all players based on the next year, then Burdette's ratings should have been based on his 1952 performance. But clearly they're not. He has 1 stuff, 7 movement, and 1 control on a 10-point scale. So it seems like the ratings are correctly based on his 1951 real life numbers.

But then look at Clint Courtney. He had just 2 AB in 1951, so, if anything, he should have been weakened when he was created as part of the 1951 rookie class. But in my test game he has 6 contact, 7 gap, 3 power, 6 eye, and 10 avoid K's. This would seem to reflect his 1952 season, not his 1951 season. In 1952, he hit .286 in 413 AB.

So it appears that there is a serious problem, but it's not consistent. I've contacted OOTP Developments to report this as a bug, and hopefully we can figure out what's causing this and then get a patch fix.
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Old 12-31-2012, 09:13 PM   #7 (permalink)
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By the way, are others using real stats or neutralized stats? I started my test game using neutralized stats, but I don't normally play the game that way.
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Old 12-31-2012, 10:52 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Yes this is weird. I do not use neutralized stats. I hope this problem will eventually get resolved, and doesn't carry over into OOTP 14.
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:44 PM   #9 (permalink)
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If we're all reporting this, it won't carry over into OOTP14. Markus is always great about squashing bugs. The hope is that we might get a quick fix to patch this in OOTP13.

A couple of other folks are testing this and have further confirmed some of the problem. The tricky part is the lack of consistency in what the game is doing. I'm hoping we can pinpoint exactly what is going on so a patch can be done more easily.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:21 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Thanks for the replies, all.

I'm using the default database and normal (non-neutralized) stats.

I should have said that, as CH mentions, this doesn't appear to affect every player's stats. It is a shame though, because if you start a new historical game based solely on say the 1945 season, the ratings are exactly how you'd imagine they should be. But if you start in 1930 and sim forward, the 1945 ratings are quite different even if you're using 1 year recalc periods.

Last edited by RT-; 01-02-2013 at 08:23 AM.
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Old 01-02-2013, 11:25 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Since the AI can now look ahead to some extent, I just assumed the ratings were then anticipating upcoming player performance, particularly if you're not playing stats only.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:47 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canaveral View Post
Since the AI can now look ahead to some extent, I just assumed the ratings were then anticipating upcoming player performance, particularly if you're not playing stats only.
The AI can't look ahead except for potential.
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Old 01-03-2013, 05:52 AM   #13 (permalink)
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There can be a problem if the amateur draft takes place prior to the offseason. If left on default, things are calculated properly here in my tests. However, there may also be a problem when rookies are placed on the real teams. I'll tweak this in OOTP 14.
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Last edited by Markus Heinsohn; 01-03-2013 at 06:19 AM.
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Old 03-14-2013, 06:47 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Not sure if this has been addressed, but I've noticed in historical replay leagues in which real players are imported that they get imported beginning with their second year rankings and not their first. I've had to delete players and re-import them so they stay aligned with the correct years.

This also affects players who miss seasons in real life. The system doesn't seem to bring them back with the correct year's rankings. When they come back, they are rated based on the previous year in which they played.

Thanks!
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