caught stealing

Mr. Capo · 04-26-2007, 10:52 AM

I'm having much too high a proportion of runners caught stealing. More CS than SB, league-wide, season after season. Historically, SB should outnumber CS by nearly 2 to 1.

There is a preponderance of good catcher arms in the league; more than half are 20 (scale of 1-20), and very few under 15, so obviously I suspect this to be either a cause or a symptom of the problem. I am using Arod-Garlon's random debut DB.

Turning up basestealing in league settings only makes it worse; the more aggressively they run, the more likely they are to get gunned down by those 20 arms.

I have now manually edited most of the catchers' arm ratings, reducing them so that the league-wide balance appears more even, and have not had a chance to test this yet. But my questions are:

• Is this a know issue, either of the game or of this particular DB?
• Is there a fix or workaround, or some way of influencing the CS%?

24Rocks · 04-26-2007, 11:37 AM

ya i see that to in a 5 game series a C with a1 arm caught 75% of my runners and most of them are very fast.

StyxNCa · 04-29-2007, 06:55 AM

Right now my league has a 50.8% SB/CS ratio. This really hurts my team since I built it as a base stealing team. I have had to cut way down on even attempting since my team % is hovering at 45%. There is one team at 60.1%, but the rest of the league is in a range from 40% - 51%.

billethius · 05-03-2007, 03:41 PM

Before I log this as a bug, could someone test it using a) a fictional league and b) a lahman import.

magnet · 05-04-2007, 06:01 AM

I can verify it on the lahman import

This is a catcher with an arm of 2/20; watching him gun down my 20 speed/20 steal guy made me check his lifetime stats.

StyxNCa · 05-08-2007, 09:41 PM

No response to this yet?

billethius · 05-09-2007, 11:37 AM

I'll go ahead and log it, asking Markus to take a look ... but looking quickly at baseball reference, it looks like the ratio is much less than 2 to 1 for much of baseball history. It's not until the late 60's that you start to see anything even approaching 2-1.

TT#: 3544

StyxNCa · 05-09-2007, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by billethius

I'll go ahead and log it, asking Markus to take a look ... but looking quickly at baseball reference, it looks like the ratio is much less than 2 to 1 for much of baseball history. It's not until the late 60's that you start to see anything even approaching 2-1.

TT#: 3544

How can you say that since caught stealing stats weren't kept consistantly until the 50's? The ones that were kept show league success around 60% or more. There are a few that I see that were around 57%, but I have not found one instance where SB% was 50% or less. I once did figure out that historically the success rate was 63% for all years I could find records for.

billethius · 05-09-2007, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

How can you say that since caught stealing stats weren't kept consistantly until the 50's? The ones that were kept show league success around 60% or more. There are a few that I see that were around 57%, but I have not found one instance where SB% was 50% or less. I once did figure out that historically the success rate was 63% for all years I could find records for.

I'm only going on the data that's on baseball reference. Taking some random years that they have stats for, I'm seeing:

1954: ~57% success
1968: ~61%
1983: ~67%

1947 and 1941 also had success percentages less than 60 in the NL (54% and 59% respectively) but had no AL data for CS. I guess > 54% would be defined as close to 60% or more, but it's not until recently that the numbers started to climb above the 2-1 ratio. My larger point was that depending on what year of a database you were using, you could definitely expect to see ratios lower than that.

sporr · 05-20-2007, 02:47 PM

Yep, I just noticed this in our online league. There is a setting in the engine file that allows you to adjust steal success frequency. For now, I've bumped that up to make things more realistic.

FNC · 06-18-2007, 02:40 PM

Where is the setting in the engine to increase stolen base success?

sporr · 06-20-2007, 07:54 PM

You can get to it in:

Game / OOTP Preferences

Then select the button for Open config folder.

The file in question is in that folder and is called "engine"

04-26-2007, 10:52 AM	#1 (permalink)
Mr. Capo Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 240 Thanked 9x in 8 posts	caught stealing I'm having much too high a proportion of runners caught stealing. More CS than SB, league-wide, season after season. Historically, SB should outnumber CS by nearly 2 to 1. There is a preponderance of good catcher arms in the league; more than half are 20 (scale of 1-20), and very few under 15, so obviously I suspect this to be either a cause or a symptom of the problem. I am using Arod-Garlon's random debut DB. Turning up basestealing in league settings only makes it worse; the more aggressively they run, the more likely they are to get gunned down by those 20 arms. I have now manually edited most of the catchers' arm ratings, reducing them so that the league-wide balance appears more even, and have not had a chance to test this yet. But my questions are: • Is this a know issue, either of the game or of this particular DB? • Is there a fix or workaround, or some way of influencing the CS%?

05-09-2007, 11:37 AM	#7 (permalink)
billethius All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 806 Thanked 1x in 1 post	I'll go ahead and log it, asking Markus to take a look ... but looking quickly at baseball reference, it looks like the ratio is much less than 2 to 1 for much of baseball history. It's not until the late 60's that you start to see anything even approaching 2-1. TT#: 3544 Last edited by billethius; 05-09-2007 at 11:41 AM.

05-20-2007, 02:47 PM	#10 (permalink)
sporr Global Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Muscatine, IA Posts: 8,275 Thanked 34x in 2 posts	Yep, I just noticed this in our online league. There is a setting in the engine file that allows you to adjust steal success frequency. For now, I've bumped that up to make things more realistic. __________________ Baseball Maelstrom - Commish/ St Louis Cardinals USBA - Las Vegas Scorpions

06-20-2007, 07:54 PM	#12 (permalink)
sporr Global Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Muscatine, IA Posts: 8,275 Thanked 34x in 2 posts	You can get to it in: Game / OOTP Preferences Then select the button for Open config folder. The file in question is in that folder and is called "engine" __________________ Baseball Maelstrom - Commish/ St Louis Cardinals USBA - Las Vegas Scorpions

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04-29-2007, 06:55 AM	#3 (permalink)
StyxNCa Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Victoria, Texas Posts: 2,997 Thanked 177x in 105 posts	Right now my league has a 50.8% SB/CS ratio. This really hurts my team since I built it as a base stealing team. I have had to cut way down on even attempting since my team % is hovering at 45%. There is one team at 60.1%, but the rest of the league is in a range from 40% - 51%.

05-03-2007, 03:41 PM	#4 (permalink)
billethius All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 806 Thanked 1x in 1 post	Before I log this as a bug, could someone test it using a) a fictional league and b) a lahman import.

05-04-2007, 06:01 AM	#5 (permalink)
magnet Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: OTher message Board Land Posts: 4,925 Thanked 6x in 6 posts	I can verify it on the lahman import This is a catcher with an arm of 2/20; watching him gun down my 20 speed/20 steal guy made me check his lifetime stats.

05-08-2007, 09:41 PM	#6 (permalink)
StyxNCa Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Victoria, Texas Posts: 2,997 Thanked 177x in 105 posts	No response to this yet?

06-18-2007, 02:40 PM	#11 (permalink)
FNC Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 62 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Where is the setting in the engine to increase stolen base success?