Realistic Player Development

sebastian0622 · 10-03-2005, 12:28 AM

Player development should be based on TangoTiger's findings.

Some particular notes of interest going off the second chart which is every player season of players aged 21-37 from 1919-1999:

-BB/9 (or "eye" in OOTP) continually improves as a player ages. It never peaks and declines.

-SB is a developable attribute and should be treated like one in OOTP. It peaks at age 24 and is at 66% value by age 31. So it should be rare for a player to be as good a base thief at 31 as he was at 24. It's pretty common in OOTP.

-The typical player at age 35 has maintained 80% of his peak power and 88% of his ability to get extra base hits (which leads one to believe that very little "gap power" is lost). I have a suspicion that this percentage is lower in OOTP.

Those are a few points that are extracted from the chart. Player development should be based on regression generated from the chart. I bet if Markus asked TangoTiger nicely (or with a check in hand) for standard deviations, he would oblige. Implemented correctly, this would be a huge step towards a "perfect" player development model.

What would truly make me happy would be for Markus to get era-specific development stats (regressions) from TangoTiger. Then, they could be embedded into era settings. Maybe players peaked at 26 in 1943 but peak at 28 now? Only TangoTiger knows...but man that would be an awesome addition to OOTP to set the era in the league settings and have the proper development curves come with it. Barring that, to just implement the 1919-1999 findings and not do era settings would still be a big step in the right direction.

rogmax11 · 10-03-2005, 03:03 PM

I totally concur; the development curves still need considerable refinement to achieve a "realistic" feel, especially at the latter stages of players' careers.

Deft · 10-03-2005, 03:39 PM

I think pitching is where it really needs work. Too many players come into the league with low Stuff ratings but high control ratings. Its usually reversed as the pitchers improve their ability to command their pitches as they age.

sfgiants88 · 10-03-2005, 09:24 PM

That is a fantastic link. I really hope Markus uses those as the current settings are awful.

DougWyatt · 10-04-2005, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sfgiants88

That is a fantastic link. I really hope Markus uses those as the current settings are awful.

Wow - not sure I'd say that .. but I definately think this would enhance my OOTPing

andymac · 10-04-2005, 11:52 AM

I would actually agree that (at least the pitching) development curves need a ton of work. Young guys should always be nearly fully developed in stuff. The main goal for stuff is keeping it...it is extremely rare for a pitcher to "become" a strikeout pitcher or become better at striking people out. Control is a rating that should be "developing" over the pitcher's entire career, it isn't something that peaks around 27, like it does in OOTP. I'm not sure exactly how to approach movement, as I'm not sure we have ever been told exactly how it used by the game, except that it seems to be a major factor in home run's.

QuestGAV · 10-04-2005, 03:33 PM

I'd strongly agree with this whole thread. These algorithms need alot of attention and if there's good research out there that supports specific curves it would be alot better than the eyeball method that seems to be in place now.

sebastian0622 · 10-07-2005, 04:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

I'd strongly agree with this whole thread. These algorithms need alot of attention and if there's good research out there that supports specific curves it would be alot better than the eyeball method that seems to be in place now.

Yeah, I see no good reason to NOT use these results. Anything that models real life is our friend!

10-03-2005, 12:28 AM	#1 (permalink)
sebastian0622 Banned Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 3,461	Realistic Player Development Player development should be based on TangoTiger's findings. Some particular notes of interest going off the second chart which is every player season of players aged 21-37 from 1919-1999: -BB/9 (or "eye" in OOTP) continually improves as a player ages. It never peaks and declines. -SB is a developable attribute and should be treated like one in OOTP. It peaks at age 24 and is at 66% value by age 31. So it should be rare for a player to be as good a base thief at 31 as he was at 24. It's pretty common in OOTP. -The typical player at age 35 has maintained 80% of his peak power and 88% of his ability to get extra base hits (which leads one to believe that very little "gap power" is lost). I have a suspicion that this percentage is lower in OOTP. Those are a few points that are extracted from the chart. Player development should be based on regression generated from the chart. I bet if Markus asked TangoTiger nicely (or with a check in hand) for standard deviations, he would oblige. Implemented correctly, this would be a huge step towards a "perfect" player development model. What would truly make me happy would be for Markus to get era-specific development stats (regressions) from TangoTiger. Then, they could be embedded into era settings. Maybe players peaked at 26 in 1943 but peak at 28 now? Only TangoTiger knows...but man that would be an awesome addition to OOTP to set the era in the league settings and have the proper development curves come with it. Barring that, to just implement the 1919-1999 findings and not do era settings would still be a big step in the right direction. Last edited by sebastian0622 : 10-03-2005 at 12:30 AM.

10-03-2005, 03:39 PM	#3 (permalink)
Deft All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 775	I think pitching is where it really needs work. Too many players come into the league with low Stuff ratings but high control ratings. Its usually reversed as the pitchers improve their ability to command their pitches as they age. __________________ ATHL Louisville Jockeys (2001-present) 2002, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015 World Champions Consolidated Jersey Styles Jersey and Cap GIMP/Photoshop Templates

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10-03-2005, 03:03 PM	#2 (permalink)
rogmax11 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,202	I totally concur; the development curves still need considerable refinement to achieve a "realistic" feel, especially at the latter stages of players' careers.

10-03-2005, 09:24 PM	#4 (permalink)
sfgiants88 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 885	That is a fantastic link. I really hope Markus uses those as the current settings are awful.

10-04-2005, 11:52 AM	#6 (permalink)
andymac Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Effingham, IL Posts: 5,357	I would actually agree that (at least the pitching) development curves need a ton of work. Young guys should always be nearly fully developed in stuff. The main goal for stuff is keeping it...it is extremely rare for a pitcher to "become" a strikeout pitcher or become better at striking people out. Control is a rating that should be "developing" over the pitcher's entire career, it isn't something that peaks around 27, like it does in OOTP. I'm not sure exactly how to approach movement, as I'm not sure we have ever been told exactly how it used by the game, except that it seems to be a major factor in home run's.

10-04-2005, 03:33 PM	#7 (permalink)
QuestGAV Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Connecticut Posts: 2,008	I'd strongly agree with this whole thread. These algorithms need alot of attention and if there's good research out there that supports specific curves it would be alot better than the eyeball method that seems to be in place now.