Rebuilding in Buffalo

[TEHLUDDITE]

Buffalo Sabres rebuild
This game was started using the March 5, 2014 rosters, so much of the work of disassembling the roster has been done at league startup. Of course that also means that I have a head start in the draft, owning two firsts in both 2014 and 2015 drafts as well as a pair of seconds in 2014 thanks to the moves made by the real Sabres. I thought that a logical place to begin would be to assess the roster position by position.

Goaltending:
Neither Jonas Enroth nor Michal Neuvirth are terrible, but they aren't going to lead the club to glory either. They're both 25, relatively inexpensive and under contract for a couple of seasons, so expect the club to go forward with them while we suffer through the early stages of this rebuild. The tandem in the AHL affiliate (Rochester) appear to be career minor-leaguers, so help won't be arriving from there. The best goalie in the system is 20 yr-old Linus Ullmark who is MoDo's starter in the Swedish Hockey League, although he is probably a couple of years away from signability. Ullmark projects as a starter, but not as an elite starter, so finding such a goaltender will be one focus of the rebuild.

Defence:
The Sabres defence is led by Christian Erhoff (31) and Tyler Myers (23). The remaining NHL cast is comprised of journeymen and marginal NHLers. Jason McBain, Mark Pysyk and Mike Weber are serviceable enough but don't project as better than 3rd pairing defenders on a playoff team. Erhoff certainly won't be as effective by the time the Sabres are ready to compete and Myers seems to be regresssing, which calls his long-term value into question. The cast playing at Rochester is limited to fringe NHLers with the exception of top prospect Rasmus Ruotsalainen (19) who projects as a top 4 NHL defenceman and potential PP quarterback. The only defence prospect of note in the system after Ruotsalainen is 2012 2nd rounder Jake McCabe, playing US College hockey, who our scouts think will develop into a legitimate NHL top pair defenceman. Even if Myers can be recapture his early career form and Ruotsalainen and McCabe develop as projected, the Sabres need to find at least one more prospect capable of playing in the top two pairings. Beyond that there will also be a need to develop greater depth at the position, so another focus of the rebuild will be to re-stock the talent pool on defence.

Forwards:
The picture up front is fairly bleak as well. The Sabres top forwards entering the season are Tyler Ennis (24), Cody Hodgson (23), Drew Stafford (28) and Chris Stewart (26). Don't get me wrong - none of these guys are bad, but none of them are legitimate first liners either and yet at least two of them will find themselves in that position until we can dig up something better. The rest of the incumbent Sabres forwards are suspects like Ville Leino or fringe NHLers, with the possible exception of 22 yr-old aspiring power forward Marcus Foligno. On the farm in Rochester, the top forwards are wingers Zemgus Girgensons (19) and Joel Armia (20) who both project as top 6 forwards, if not first liners, at the NHL level. Also on the Americans roster are centers Daniel Catenacci (20) and Johan Larsson (21) who could fill 3rd or 4th line spots with the Sabres eventually. Among the unsigned prospects, center Logan Nelson (19), with Victoria of the WHL , left winger J.T.Compher (18) with the US National Development Team and winger Gustav Possler (19) with MoDo in the Swedish Hockey League all project as potential NHL second line players. Beyond that it would be a surprise if a legitimate NHL player emerged from the remaining forward prospects. So, to recap, the cupboard up front is far from bare but still lacks the top players you'd need to have to compete at the highest level. High picks and a little luck will be likely required to come up with the impact forwards that the Sabres lack, so let's call that focus number three in the rebuild.

2013-2014 Season outlook:
Knowing that it will be extremely hard to be competitive right away, I have decided to stand pat with the current roster and take my lumps, except where Girgensons was concerned. To shield him from being overwhelmed on a bad team, I decided to play him in Rochester where I hope he will dominate before becoming an integral member of the Sabres roster beginning in '14-15.

Goalies:
Neuvirth and Enroth in rotation, splitting the starts.
Defence:
Myers with Mike Weber
McBain with Erhoff
Andreas Sulzer with Henrik Tallinder.
Mark Pysyk will fill in as needed.
Forward Lines:
1st line: Leino-Hodgson-Stafford
2nd line: Corey Conacher-Ennis-Stewart
3rd line: Foligno-Brian Flynn-Matt D'Agostini
4th line: Torrey Mitchell-Zenon Konopka-John Scott
Matt Ellis is the thirteenth forward.

Pre-season:
With Marcus Foligno opening the season on Injured Reserve, the Sabres are down to 12 forwards. Scouring the trade lists we identified Daniel Carcillo, a spare part with the Rangers as a trade target. Carcillo (28) can play either wing and plays the truculent style I prefer from my bottom two lines. Additionally, Carcillo is an unrestricted free agent after the season earning an affordable $850k. The Rangers apparently need help on D and I have Rusty Klesla languishing on the Rochester roster due to his near $3 million cap hit which I figure the Rangers, being the Rangers, can afford. Unfortunately the Rangers GM is unimpressed with my offer of Klesla for Carcillo and he doesn't bite until I add a 7th round pick. The final deal is Klesla and Sabres 7th in 2015 for Carcillo and a pair of marginal 18 yr-old prospects, defenceman Ryan Graves, a physical stay-at-home defender with Charlottetown in the QMJHL and Adam Tambellini, a big playmaking center playing US College hockey with North Dakota. Organizational depth, in other words. On to the regular season. Let the suffering begin.

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Addendum:
I missed 3 signed prospects that are with their junior teams, all of whom could develop into significant players with the Sabres eventually.


William Carrier (18), a playmaking left winger, has top 6 potential. He is playing in the Q with Cape Breton.


Mikhail Grigorenko (19). a dynamic offensive forward, also has top 6 potential and perhaps even better. He's probably the Sabres top prospect. He's also in the Q with Quebec.


Nikita Zadorov (18) is a huge physical defenseman with offensive upside, similar in many ways to Tyler Myers as a junior. He also figures to eventually develop into a top 4 and possibly top 2 pairing guy. He's with London in the OHL.


The presence of these players should alter the drafting strategy over the next two years. Zadorov in particular fills a need that I identified for the defence corps, although I will still be on the lookout for a big-minutes workhorse type that every team would love to have. It'll be interesting to follow their junior seasons to get a clearer picture of what they might offer down the line.

[Bigby Wolf]

What are your owners expectations for the season? Is he going to allow you to stockpile picks?

[TEHLUDDITE]

Originally Posted by Bigby Wolf

What are your owners expectations for the season? Is he going to allow you to stockpile picks?

The owner has outright stated that he expects me to rebuild the club. Early in the season, I got a nod of confidence from the owner despite winning only 3 of the first 13 games (more on that later).


I don't really expect to trade for a lot of draft picks - the real Sabres took care of that before my arrival. I'd say this is more of a "draft and follow" type of rebuild and I'll probably be a very conservative trader. I'm mainly interested in examining how FHM develops prospects and I don't want to lose track of that by making a ton of trades, especially considering that the AI is in its infancy.

[TEHLUDDITE]

Strategies and Tactics:
Looking at the talent available, it was a pretty easy choice to play defence-first and to encourage an aggressive physical style in an effort to be at least a bit competitive. I also thought that rolling 4 lines and balancing the ice-time would help keep everyone fresher and better able to keep up the pace. Generally that means more ice-time for the 3rd and 4th lines and a more even distribution among the top four defencemen.


October-November 2013
After opening the season with 3 losses, the Sabres came up with a couple of home wins versus Tampa and Columbus. Reality soon set in with a 5-0 drubbing in Chicago, but the club turned the tables in the next game, shutting out Minnesota 3-0. That was, however, the high mark for October since the Sabres dropped the next 8 games to finish the month with a record of 3-11-1.

November began as a continuation of October as the Sabres dropped a 4-2 decision at home to Anaheim before leaving on the dreaded "Western swing" - games on the west coast against San Jose, LA and the Ducks. To my massive surprise, the Sabres won in SJ and LA before being outplayed again by Anaheim. From this point the club started to hold its own a bit, alternating wins and losses for the most part to close the month with a respectable record of 5-6-1. Overall the Sabres stand at 8-18-2, placing them 28th overall.


The Performances

Goaltending starts were, as mentioned previously, alternated and both goalies had identical 4-9-1 records. Jonas Enroth (2.84 GAA, .916 SV%) was statistically superior to Michal Neuvirth (3.63 GAA, .895 SV%) although each goalie recorded a shutout.


The Good:
Drew Stafford leads the team in scoring (9 G, 8A, 17 PTS) and is one of a handful of plus players (along with Ennis, Hodgson, Leino and Andreas Sulzer). Tyler Ennis leads the team in goals (10) and is second in scoring with 15 points. Cody Hodgson also has 15 points (9G , 6A). Cory Conacher has also contributed surprising offence (6G, 8A) but is minus 9 on the season. Marcus Foligno has been effective in a variety of roles when not injured, fitting in nicely as the physical element on the first line until going down with an injury. His stat line isn't great (1G,7A in 15 games) but the early success in his rookie season is certainly a bright spot.

The Bad:
Ville Leino has just 1 goal but leads the team in assists (12). Christian Erhoff leads defencemen in scoring (3G, 8A) but is minus 14. Chris Stewart has just 5 goals and 3 assists with 49 PIMs as a top 6 forward but is just minus 3 and leads the team in hits.


The Ugly:
Daniel Carcillo, brought in to add jam to the 4th line, has just 12 PIMs and a goal and an assist through 28 games. Tyler Myers, a core player on defence and a member of the 1st PP unit, has really struggled posting a team-worst minus 17 to go with no goals and 5 assists. Brian Flynn has 5 points and sports a minus 14 as the third line centre. Zenon Konopka leads the club with 52 PIMs as the fourth line centre and is minus 10. In general the 3rd and 4th lines having been getting overwhelmed and have the worst plus-minus numbers, so the strategy of rolling 4 lines is probably over-exposing these guys a bit.


On the Farm/Prospect Watch:
Zemgus Girgensons leads Rochester in scoring (6G, 9A in 17 GP) and is said to be growing impatient for a call-up to Buffalo. Joel Armia (14 PTS) leads the Amerks in goalscoring with 8 and in hits and takeaways. Defenceman Rasmus Ruotsalainen ranks 4th in team scoring (2G, 9A in 17 games) and leads the team in blocked shots.

Among our contracted juniors, Mikhail Grigorenko and William Carrier rank 8th and 12th in QMJHL scoring. Defenceman Nikita Zadorov has started slowly due to injury posting just 10 points in 18 games.

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December 2013 - January 2014
So I finally started listening to my scouts and re-worked the defensive pairs, getting significant improvement almost immediately. It took a while for the results to show up on the scoreboad but by the end of December the club had posted a 5-4-3 record for the month.

After moving Tyler Myers into nearly every conceivable role, I finally paired him with Christian Erhoff which gave Myers a new lease on life (1G, 11A +3 in 26 GP compared to 0-5 -17 over the first 28 GP). Mark Pysyk (1-11, -3 in 24GP) went into the lineup in place of Andreas Sulzer which improved the offensive balance of the third pairing with Mike Weber. I tasked the crafty veteran Henrik Tallinder with taking care of the offensive-minded Jamie McBain on the second pairing so that each pairing had a blend of offence and defence, youth and veteran poise.

Despite losing Erhoff to an ankle injury for most of January, the strategy continued to work well as the Sabres ended the month with a record of 7-5-2. Now, playing 3 games over .500 for December and January didn't do much for the club's place in the overall standings but that was as much a result of how much the other teams improved as it was how far down we had been buried on November 30th. As of February 1, 2014 the Sabres have a record of 19-28-7 which is good for 30th overall in a virtual tie with 2 other clubs.



The Performances


Goaltending was generally consistent with the previous 2 months. Enroth's season stat line was virtually unchanged by his Dec-Jan performance. Michal Neuvirth's stat line improved markedly and he had the only Sabres shutout of the period as he and Enroth continued to evenly split the starts.


Among the forward group the big news was the awakening of Chris Stewart (12G, 12A in the 26 games) after a horrible start to the season. Ville Leino was the other forward who really picked it up, scoring 7 times with 14 assists on a line with Stewart and Tyler Ennis (10-5). Cody Hodgson (12-8) worked with well with Markus Foligno (8-7) and Drew Stafford (5-4 in 11 games) before Stafford got hurt. Matt D'Agostino filled in admirably while Stafford was down, replacing Cory Conacher (who fell into a nasty slump, 3-3 in 26 games) as the swing forward. The bottom-end forwards - Flynn, Konopka, Ellis, Mitchell, Scott and Carcillo - continued to struggle, contributing very little offence and losing ground on plus/minus as a result. Konopka, the best faceoff man on the club, kills penalties when he isn't serving them and Torrey Mitchell is a capable penaty killer too, but the rest of the 3rd and 4th line candidates seem to have little to offer the club moving forward.


I've already talked about the defence group's improvement but I really don't expect to move into the future with two 30-somethings playing key roles. Erhoff is arguably the team's best defenceman and he's still minus 16 on the season. The Sabres are just making the best with what they have for 2013-14 so Erhoff and Tallinder will continue to be important over the final third of the season.


On the Farm/Prospect Watch:

In the AHL, the least-heralded prospect is showing the most. Joel Armia had a huge 2 months, scoring 17 goals and 7 assists, giving him season totals of 25-13 in 40 games. He now ranks 2nd among league goal-scorers and 5th in overall scoring and is showing tons of improvement according to the development reports. Zemgus Girgensons seems to be in a funk over not getting called up to the Sabres and his development reports and statistics bear that out. He had 7 goals and 6 assists for modest season totals of 13-15 in 40GP which still ranks him second on the team in scoring but is far from what we expected from him. Rasmus Ruotalainen's performance was consistent with the first two months but the scouts are reporting satisfaction with his development, so perhaps that will show up statistically in the final two months.

In the junior leagues, William Carrier has burst into a tie for 1st in QMJHL scoring and outright leads in assists. But it is Mikhail Grigorenko's development that has the scouts posting glowing reports. Grigorenko has moved up to 5th in QMJHL scoring and ranks 3rd in goals. Defenceman Nikita Zadorov seems to be over his injuries. He's improving steadilty and had almost a point per game over the 12 games he dressed for in December and January.

[BlackIce]

I love the fact your not one of those butcher GM's who think rebuilding a team means you trade away virtually everything including your picks and prospects for star players lol. Great read bud!! I look forward to your future post's and good luck with the rebuild.

[TEHLUDDITE]

February-March-April 2014
While the rest of the league was driving toward the playoffs, the Sabres stumbled to the gate, dropping 21 of 28 games to finish the season in 30th place with 61 points, 6 points behind the 29th place Florida Panthers. There were a variety of reasons for the poor finish. In Februray, the goals stopped coming - the club gave up just 16 goals in 6 losses, but scored only 5 times. In March-April the cohesion that we had found in the defensive corps was disrupted by injuries and performance plummeted. At one point we even had enforcer winger John Scott playing 3rd pair minutes on defence. He wasn't a disaster there but it indicates how our patchwork D got even more patchy. Finally, Jonas Enroth really fell apart, producing very few good starts. Neuvirth was far better, but no where near good enough to make a significant difference.

The Performances
Goaltending, when provided by Michal Neuvirth, was decent. Otherwise it was pretty poor. Neuvirth now has a leg up on Enroth in the battle to establish a #1 starter for 2014-15, barring a trade or free agent acquisition.

The defencemen plugged along amidst injuries with no notable performances. With the pairings disrupted, Tyler Myers went backward as well, although his development reports indicate he was making progress even when it wasn't showing up on the ice. 2014-15 could be a pivotal year in his career. Not one Sabres defenceman had a plus plus/minus on the year and as a group they contributed just 14 goals and only 3 of those came on the powerplay, so there is plenty of room for improvement.

Cody Hodgson and Marcus Foligno finished the year strongly, but the remaining top 6 (Ennis, Stewart, Leino and Stafford) fell off their Dec-Jan production. Hodgson led the team in goals (32) and points (52), while Ville Leino was the assists leader (32) on the season. Chris Stewart finished 2nd in club scoring (22 G, 24 A, 46 PTS). Tyler Ennis, 5th in scoring was the only other 20-goal scorer (25 G, 16 A, 41 PTS). Leino was 3rd (14 G, 32 A, 46 PTS) and Foligno posted respectable totals (18 G, 24 A, 42 PTS) despite missing 14 games through injury. His game improved markedly as the year went on and he is now solidly in the plans as a top 6 forward. On the disappointing side, Drew Stafford missed 16 games but still underachieved offensively (17 G, 18 A, 35 PTS), while Cory Conacher managed meager totals as a swing-forward (14 G, 14 A, 28 PTS) but posted the best plus/minus of the supporting forwards. There may be a role player or two among the rest of the forward group, but who stays for 2014-15 will be determined in our post-season analysis.

On the Farm/Prospect Watch
In Rochester, Joel Armia continued his assault on AHL goalies, scoring 19 more goals in the final third of the year to finish as the AHL goal-scoring (44) and powerplay goals (17) leader. His 61 points left him as the runnerup in the AHL scoring race. The real Zemgus Girgensons finally showed up down the stretch (8 G, 19 A) and our scouts were filing very positive development reports, so it looks like the decision to keep him back for a year wasn't a complete waste of time after all. Girgensons finished the year wih 21 goals and 34 assists, which placed him 14th in AHL scoring - not too bad considering his slow start. Rasmus Ristolainen also had a very strong finish (5 G, 15 A) placing him 5th in AHL scoring among defencemen (9 G, 34 A, 43 PTS). He also tied for the league lead in blocked shots.

Back in junior, Mikhail Girgorenko was named QMHJL playoff MVP as he led his Quebec Remparts to the league title and a berth in the Memorial Cup final where they lost to Swift Current. On the year, Gigorenko (47 G, 37 A, 84 PTS) was 2nd in the scoring race and 2nd also in goals. William Carrier (18 G, 58 A, 76 PTS) wound up 5th in QMJHL scoring and 1st in assists. In the OHL, defenceman Nikita Zadorov closed out a disappointing season (6 G, 27 A in 49 GP) with a lacklustre playoff as his London Knights were eliminated in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Now What?
There are quite a few decisions ahead of the Sabres before the puck drops on the 2014-15 season. There are five unrestricted free agents and another five restricted free agents to decide whether to tender contract extensions to. There are at least three and possibly four players with our AHL affiliate that appear to be ready and plans for how they might fit into the lineup need to be analysed. Finally, we will need to re-evaluate our prospect bank as we attempt to determine who might emerge as an NHL level player and when. There is also the 2014 NHL Draft, where the Sabres have 2 picks in each of the first two rounds, including the likely #1 overall. All in all, this might be the most important offseason of the rebuild as we look to make good decisions that will lay the foundation for what is to come.

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Oops

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Post-Season Analysis

Looking at the results of the season, its hard to describe it as anything other than a train wreck. The Sabres weren't expect to do much and they delivered in spades. The club finished dead last in goals for and 21st in goals against, so there's lots of work to be done on both fronts.

The goaltending was decent, but its hard to argue that it was of playoff caliber either. Jonas Enroth and Michale Neuvirth split the games and, at season's end, it was hard to see much difference between them. The future of the Sabres goaltending seems to have fallen into the hands of 21 yr-old Linus Ullmark who is entering the final year of his contract with his Swedish club team. A big priority for next off-season will be to get him signed to play in North America. In the meantime, it looks like at least another year of Enroth and Neuvirth unless a trade can be worked out. However, that looks like a long-shot through since the price for a starting goalie would almost certainly include high draft choices which the Sabres are unwilling to give up. The 2014 NHL Draft includes a few good goaltending prospects but its too early to say whether the Sabres draft plan will target goaltending early enough to land one of them and the likelihood is that any goalie drafted will arrive after Ullmark does anyway.

On the blueline, we found out that the grab-bag of talent the club has is offensively challenged although they can be fairly effective...if thet stay healthy and are paired perfectly. The limitations of most of the defencemen on the club was apparent at the start and end of the season when the group could not be paired optimally. However, even when the pairings were effective in the middle third of the season, the club's record was barely .500 over a period during which the forwards were also going well. In fact, it is the infelxibility of the defence group that tells you that a lot of changes are needed. Take the case of Tyler Myers, arguably the club's most talented defenceman. When paired with the mature, well-rounded Erhoff, Myers performance was very good. When paired with anyone else, his performance was sub-par. Even though the defence didn't have an awful season, one has to keep in mind that they made their contribution to the last-place finish. The club has three promising youngsters on the way (Jake McCabe, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov) and the plan is to look for a bonafide #1 defenceman in the draft, so this position should get an overhaul pretty quickly.

Up front, the top six forwards held their own if their plus/minus can be cited as evidence. It was the bottom six that got waxed regularly. Moving forward, the core fowards are likely to remain Cody Hodgson, Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno and Chris Stewart. Drew Stafford could be added back into the mix despite his age (28) if he can bounce back from a pretty mediocre 2013-14 season. The rest of the group are either a little to old or not talented enough to keep if the club expects to improve. One thing that really did not work last season was trying to use grinder-style tactics with the 3rd and 4th lines. The strategy did nothing to slow down opposing teams offensively and the players we used were either ill-suited to play the style, or simply not good enough. With that in mind, I will likely emphasize skill over brawn for the bottom lines for 2014-15 and see how that goes. If it succeeds, it might be a blueprint for constructing future lineups, especially as we develop our prospects.


Off-Season

I mentioned in a previous post that we had 5 UFAs and 5 RFAs to look at. The UFAs were defencemen Henrik Tallinder and Andreas Sulzer and forwards Zenon Konopka, Daniel Carcillo and John Scott. After briefly considering making offers to Tallinder, Sulzer and Konopka to provide veteran depth, it was decided to let all five walk. The RFAs were another matter. Only Matt D'Agostini was not tendered a qualifying offer. The others (D-man Jason McBain, forwards Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Cory Conacher) all declined the offers and held out into the summer.

With four spots on the bottom two lines cleared out, room has been made for two or three players from Rochester to move up. Joel Armia lit the AHL up and certainly deserves an opportunity to show his stuff at the next level. Zemgus Girgensons had a slow start but finished well and probably needs to play in the NHL to continue to improve. Johan Larsson quietly put up 51 pts in the AHL and could stick as Konopka's replacement centering the fourth line. The departure of Tallinder, in particular, opens up a spot for defenceman Rasmus Ristolainen, who also had a good year at Rochester. The club will probably also look to the free agent market for a veteran defenceman on a short-term deal as insurance.

So, going into the draft the Sabres roster looks like this:

Goalies - Enroth, Neuvirth
Defence - Myers, Erhoff, Weber, Pysyk, Ristolainen and possibly McBain (RFA)
Forwards - Hodgson, Stewart, Stafford, Leino, Flynn, Mitchell, Ellis, Armia, Girgensons, Larsson and possibly Ennis (RFA), Foligno (RFA) and Conacher (RFA).

[TEHLUDDITE]

2014 Off-Season continued

June 15th
With the season a bad but distant memory, attention has turned to the silver lining from that season - high draft position. The Sabres had acquired extra first and second round picks in the NHL Entry Draft from the fire-sale conducted by the previous management. Technically there are two 2nd round picks acquired in trades since the Sabres gave up theirs in one of the deals. The firesale also saw the club move out its 4th and 6th round picks, so the picks are front-end loaded. If there is no change in draft order after the draft lottery, this means the Sabres will pick in the following slots: 1st, 18th, 48th, 54th, 61st, 121st and 181st.

Our scouting staff has identified center Sam Reinhart as the clear #1 prospect in the draft. After that the list has wingers Brendan Perlini, Sam Bennett and center William Nylander ranked 2 through 4. The top defencemen in the draft are Aaron Ekblad (6th) with Jack Glover (15th), Hayden Fleury (17th), and Jacob Middleton (18th) not far behind. Other interesting names on the list are C Adrian Kempe (5th), LW Nick Ritchie (7th), LW Jake Virtanen (8th), C Michael Dal Colle (9th) and RW Spencer Watson (16th). Russian WHL import LW Nikita Scherbak rounds out our scouting top 10.

Reinhart, a natural center, is an outstanding offensive prospect with tremendous hockey sense. Scouts regard him as a natural and likely to be a high scorer at the NHL level once his development runs it course. Needless to say, he would be a perfect fit for the offense-starved Sabres and fill one of the goals set in our rebuild program as a legitimate first-line forward.

In other news, Cory Conacher agreed to our extension offer in early June, so that's one less RFA to fret over. A little more worrying is the fact that the other RFAs are all refusing to negotiate further. Hopefully we can re-open discussions again before the July 1st deadline but time will tell.

June 21st
Well Edmonton won the lottery, moving up from 5th to pick 1st overall (again...) which means Buffalo will now pick 2nd overall. I have the sinking feeling that we're not going to get our man. Edmonton really needs defencemen, but who can pass on Reinhart, especially given the Oilers' drafting history? We won't be sure until tomorrow, but it is probably a good idea to plan for Reinhart to be gone when we pick.

Next: Draft Day

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2014 Off-Season continued


June 22nd (Draft day)
What follows is a blow-by-blow account of the draft. I'll cover the first 10 picks and then ecnomize by just talking about the Sabres picks.

1st Overall- Edmonton - Sam Reinhart, C, Kootenay (WHL). As expected Edmonton made Sam Reinhart of Kootenay the 1st pick overall of the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. He really was the consensus choice and we are a bit disappointed but hardly surprised.
2nd Overall - Buffalo - Aaron Ekblad, D, Barrie (OHL). After briefly considering the other top forwards from our draft list, we decided to go with Ekblad, a rare combination of size ( 6-4 and 222 lbs.) and mobility, physicality and skill. He didn't blow anyone away statistically this year, but his talent is undeniable. We're secretly hoping we have drafted another Scott Stevens, although Ekblad might never be quite that intimidating.
3rd Overall - Florida - Sam Bennett, LW/C, Kingston (OHL). The Panthers grab arguably the most complete, pro-ready forward in the draft not named Reinhart.
4th Overall - NY Islanders acquired from Ottawa - Nick Ritchie, LW, Peterborough (OHL). The Islanders land a power forward prospect with intriguing offensive upside.
5th Overall - Columbus - Michael Dal Colle, C, Oshawa (OHL). Dal Colle is also a fairly complete player who can really shoot the puck and should be a nice fit with the Blue Jackets.
6th Overall - Nashville - Jake Virtanen, LW, Calgary (WHL). Preds get a big assertive winger with offensive skills.
7th Overall - Dallas - Hayden Fleury, D, Red Deer (WHL). This was a bit of a surprise since we had Fleury rated in the middle of the round. He possesses a nice blend of offensive and defensive skilss, but could be a lot more physical especially for his size (6-4, 204).
8th Overall - Calgary - Jack Glover, D, Regina (WHL). Glover is a mixed bag of skill and size but is more a "diamond in the rough" than a polished prospect - a bit of a gamble by the Flames.
9th Overall - Anaheim - William Nylander, C, Modo (SHL). This highly skilled Swede was ranked much higher and could turn out to be a steal. He isn't large but is very quick and puck-skilled.
10th Overall- New Jersey- Jacob Middleton, D, Ottawa (OHL). The Devils land a big workhorse defenceman with decent skills. The knocks on Middleton are that his skating could be better and scouts question his coachability. If those issues can be ironed out this will be a good pick.


By the time our second pick in the first round came up, there were eleven players still available from the top 25 of our pre-draft list. But rather than simply selecting the top guy, we went well down the list to our 23rd ranked player.
18th Overall - Buffalo - Leon Draisaitl, C/LW, Prince Albert (WHL). The Sabres take the German import , a big, strong playmaker who was among the scoring leaders in the WHL. Our scouts felt he was more pro-ready than any of the other forwards available at this point and they especially liked his hockey sense and competitiveness.
48th Overall - Buffalo - Anders Karlsson, RW, Frolunda (SHL). We had Karlsson ranked 20th although that was mostly based on projection since he's a pretty raw talent at this time. Described as a pure goal-scorer, Karlsson has decent size but has yet to earn much ice time in Sweden's top league.
54th Overall - Buffalo - Ville Husso, G, HIFK Helsinki (SML). Husso started 34 games for his elite league team in Finland as a 18-yr old and is a pretty advanced goaltending prospect whose upside rivals that of Linus Ullmark, our top goalie prospect.
61st Overall - Buffalo - Nikita Scherbak, LW, Saskatoon (WHL). We had our eye on Scherbak all the way back to the first round and were amazed when he was still available here. He has tons of offensive potential but needs to gain strength and learn to use his big frame better. He might have been a sketchy first rounder, but I think he's an amazing find in the third round.
121st Overall - Buffalo - Brendan Lemieux, LW, Barrie (OHL). The son of long-time NHL agitator Claude Lemieux, Brendan plays his father's style, driving the opposition crazy and chipping in with timely offence. If he also inherited his father's clutch scoring ability he could be quite a find for the Sabres.
181st Overall - Buffalo - Jan Mandat, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL). Czech import Mandat is a crafty center who was among the QMJHL scoring leaders last season. He's a good skater and an advanced prospect but our scouts think he may not have much development room left. He could eventually emerge as a 3rd or 4th liner or might get stuck in the minors.


Overall, I'm delighted with the draft haul. I think we improved our prospect depth at every position, which was more than I expected going into the draft. After suffering through the misfortune of not having enough talent to ice viable third and fourth lines last season, I am now ready to try a different approach to constructing those lines which emphasizes speed and skill over brawn. There may not be a forward in our draft this year that turns out to be first line quality, but I really think the remaining lines will benefit immensely when these players begin to reach the NHL level. I'm not totally sure how much we improved on defence with the pick of Ekblad, but its nice to know that we got the best defence prospect in the draft. Where I think we really improved was in goal since the draft of Ville Husso now gives us a second prospect who may be capable of starting on a playoff-caliber team. A franchise goalie would have been a great pickup, but there was no one rated that highly in this draft. However, the aquisition of that asset remains a high priority for the Sabres during their rebuilding phase.

[TEHLUDDITE]

2014 Off-Season continued (June 23-Sept. 30, 2014)

With the drafting done and free agency looming, focus returned to player evaluation and contract negotiation. The three remaining RFA holdouts became the biggest concern. Jamie McBain had held down a 2nd pair defence position and played on the 1st PP unit. We don't have anyone in our system who is obviously ready to take on those roles. Tyler Ennis was our second line center, played on the 1st PP unit and on one of the PK units. Like McBain, we have no one obviously ready to step into his role either. Marcus Foligno had shown so much progress during the season and is really the only one of the three I consider a true building block - a player I could see still with the team in five years. He had fit in well on the 1st line and played some powerplay and I really felt he added something with his blend of skill and grit. Players like Foligno (or where we project Foligno to reach) are rare and he is therefore my highest priority among the RFAs.

Looking forward, if none of the RFAs prove to be signable, we'll have some holes to plug somehow. We are already commited to promoting Joel Armia, Zemgus Gigensons and Rasmus Ristolainen from the AHL. Armia figures to play on the 3rd or 4th line but his aptitude on the PP with Rochester last year suggests he merits an opportunity with Buffalo's PP units, thus potentially filling one vacated spot. Girgensons, who played RW last year, can also play LW and C, so we can try and slot him into Folgino's LW spot although I think his true destiny for this season is the 3rd line. Ristolainen probably isn't ready for a big workload, although I see him on the PP unit and we could really use a veteran partner to work with him, so I expect him to line up on the 3rd pair, possibly with a veteran signed from UFA. A fourth Amerk also now fits into the picture, Johan Larsson who had a strong second half and should be in the hunt for the 4th line center slot.

Of the players returning from junior, only Mikhail Grigorenko is close to NHL-ready and we want him to start out with Rochester. Carrier and Zadorov should still have junior eligibilty and will likely be sent back for their final junior seasons. Likewise, the plan for the players drafted this year is for them to remain with their club teams for next season. We will go about the business of signing our draft choices very soon although the European-based players will probably be unsignable until their club team contracts expire.

In late June contracts were offered to graduating juniors already in our system as well as the players selected in the 2014 Draft. By early July we had signed contracts with C Eric Locke, C Logan Nelson, LW J.T.Compher and D Jake McCabe, all of whom were assigned immediately to Rochester. Aaron Ekblad, Nikita Scherbak and Brendan Lemieux signed Entry level contracts from the junior leagues. Ville Husso, our Finnish-based goalie draft pick surprised by showing a willingness to come to North America right away and he was signed to play in Rochester as a 19 yr-old. Despite being junior-based, we could not offer an Entry level contract to either of German C Leon Draisaitl or Czech C Jan Mandat (game glitch?) and Swedish winger Anton Karlsson also could not be negotiated with since his contract with his SHL club doesn't expire until the end of the 2015-16 season (with no early-release clause).

Aaron Ekblad and Brendan Lemieux were returned to their junior clubs but we could not return Nikita Scherbak, our Russian-born draft from Saskatoon (WHL) for some reason. Neither could Scherbak be assigned to Rochester so it looks as though a game glitch (?) may jumpstart his NHL career unless the situation corrects itself at a later date. We could also not return 2013 pick Nikita Zadorov (Russian) to his OHL team even though he is eligible and, like Scherbak, he is also not able to be assigned to our farm team so he's a Sabre for now too. [It looks like game version 1.6 Build 8 is having trouble correctly handling re-assignment options for Europeans drafted from teams in the Canadian junior leagues.]

In an effort to patch up the roster, we made couple of other moves. In July we signed veteran UFA Willie Mitchell who signed a 1-year deal for around $2.3 million to be the defensive partner and tutor for Rasmus Ristolainen. On September 1st the waiver wire suddenly got active and we made a claim from Cup Champion Detroit (yes, you read that right), picking up center Riley Sheahan. Sheahan is a slightly better fit as the 2nd line center than Brian Flynn and this is insurance in case we can't re-sign Tyler Ennis, although Sheahan is better suited to a 3rd or 4th line role. We had begun re-negotiating with Jamie McBain, Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno is mid-July. On Sept.15th, Ennis signed to play in the KHL for 2 years and on the following day Foligno shocked us by doing the same. Fortunately when Jamie McBain signed a contract on the 19th of September, it was an NHL contract with the Sabres, so we have our defence more or less in shape.

Here's how the roster looks entering October and our opening game:
Goalies: Michal Neuvirth, Jonas Enroth
Defence: Tyler Myers & Christian Erhoff, Jamie McBain & Mike Weber, Willie Mitchell & Rasmus Ristolainen, Mark Pysyk (7th D), Nikita Zadorov (in limbo with Sabres)
Left Wing: Ville Leino, Zemgus Girgensons, Cory Conacher, Matt Ellis, Nikita Scherbak
Center: Cody Hodgson, Riley Sheahan, Brian Flynn, Johan Larsson
Right Wing: Chris Stewart, Drew Stafford, Joel Armia, Tory Mitchell

[jwinn66]

Keep it up! Love this thread! GO Sabres

[Duranium]

great thread, i wish i´d have the time to play the game like you do

[TEHLUDDITE]

October-November 2014

It took just a month to find out how much the Sabres were going to miss Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno. Last year's team was hardly an offensive juggernaut, scoring 2.40 goals per game, but this team is positively anemic. Through the first 12 games, the Sabres tallied 22 goals. That's 1.83 goals per game folks, which is almost exactly what you'd get If you took Ennis and Foligno's production away from last year's goal total. In other words, we have utterly failed to replace the production of those two RFAs.

On a more positive note, we are better defensively, ranking 7th in goals against at the end of October. We are still alternating starts between Enroth and Neuvirth and, like last year, there is little difference between them statistically. However, the improved team defensive stats seem to be more about allowing fewer shots, since the save percentages of the goalies are about the same as last year's. That's surprises me, to be honest, especially considering the number of new faces in the Buffalo lineup.

Although the scoring stats are generally unimpressive, rookies rank 3rd through 5th in team scoring. Drew Stafford is off to a good start (5g, 4a) and leads the club with Chris Stewart a distant second. Then come the rookies; Johan Larsson, Zemgus Girgensons and Joel Armia. Larsson has been impressive enough to force his way up the ladder at center and now plays on the second line in place of Riley Sheahan. Cody Hodgson, the other top 6 forward, has been awful (2g, 0a). Nikita Scherbak, who we'd wanted to send back to junior, has held his own (2g, 2a) but he's about it for secondary scoring.

On D, Tyler Myers has had a nice start (1g, 4a) and is playing well defensively too. On the other end of the spectrum, rookie Rasmus Ristolainen, is still looking for his first NHL point and is a club-worst -7. The remaining rookie on the roster, Nikita Zadorov, has yet to dress
.
All of this added up to a 3-8-1 record which places the club 29th overall as of November 1st. In analysing our performance, I began to wonder if the defensive improvement could be sustained if we opened up our game. To start the month of November, we changed from a defence-first mentality to a more neutral one in the hope that we could generate more offence and win a few games. The other change was to install Zadorov in Willie Mitchell's place, again to gain some offence.

Initially the results were encouraging- three wins in the first five games. Thereafter our opponents seemed to be better prepared and we struggled through some injuries to post a record of 4-10-1 for November. We did score more goals, improving to 2.07 per game (league average is 3.11 and the next worst team scores 2.64 goals), but we slid defensively, dropping to 19th in goals against. At 7-18-2 we now stand last overall but just one game worse than last year at this time. Its hard to know whether the horrible results of the past 3 weeks were the result of the tactical change or the injuries, so until the injuries stop, we'll stay the course tactically.

Stafford remains the club scoring leader (7g, 11a in 27games) but Cody Hodgson has moved to second following a decent November (6g, 5a in the 15 games). The rookies, Armia, Girgensons and Larsson, still rank 3rd through 5th but Chris Stewart has slipped to 6th with a weak November (3g, 1a). Riley Sheahan has 6 goals and 4 assists in just 20 games overall but is currently injured. Scherbak, forced to fill in for injured top 6 forwards, struggled a bit, although his plus/minus is decent so he's contributing even when he isn't scoring.

Tyler Myers really struggled without Christian Erhoff (injured for most of the month), picking up just 2 assists and falling off defensively as well. Ristolainen finally hit the scoreboard (1g, 5a in November) but has the worst plus/minus on the team. Nikita Zadorov was surprisingly solid (2 assists and just -1) so he'll likely stay in the lineup.



On the Farm/Prospect Watch

Rochester's top 3 scorers are first-year pros (J.T. Compher, Logan Nelson, Mikhail Grigorenko) and they are all showing progress according to our scouts. Winger William Carrier is playing a far more aggressive style than we expected. The jury is out on him until we see whether that's an aberration or a permanent change of style. On defence, Jake McCabe is playing steadily if not spectacularly and we're satisfied with his early progress. In goal, 19 yr-old Ville Husso has been pretty spectacular (1.85 GAA, .943 SA%) and we may not be able to justify not giving him a shot with the Sabres much longer.

Goalie Linus Ullmark is having another solid season in Sweden but is now being overshadowed by Husso's progress in Rochester and has slipped to #2 in the prospect depth chart in goal. First-rounder , defenceman Aaron Ekblad is putting up solid numbers and his Barrie Colts top the OHL standings. All indications are that Ekblad's development is progressing nicely. Also on that team is fifth-rounder Brendan Lemieux, who is 2nd in team scoring and playing in all situations. His stock is rising. Second pick Leon Draisaitl leads the WHL in scoring with glowing reports from our scouts on the development of his all-around game. Second-rounder Anton Karlsson is still practicing with his SHL team but has yet to play a league game, which is definitely hindering his development. 2013 5th rounder Gustav Possler is developing nicely with MoDo in the SHL getting quality minutes on the top line.

[TEHLUDDITE]

Originally Posted by Duranium

great thread, i wish i´d have the time to play the game like you do

Originally Posted by jwinn66

Keep it up! Love this thread! GO Sabres

Thanks for the encouragement guys!


I play "sim to next day" so it doesn't take all that much time, although I tinker with the lineup (mostly changing goalies) between games. I actually spend more time reviewing the results and writing than playing. Interestingly, when you look at the sim results closely like this, you start to see the subtle differences between the players. One of the criticisms I've seen leveled at FHM is that it lacks life or color, so it has been cool to find that the skeleton for a rich dynamic narrative exists for the game. All that's needed is time and some applied creativity and the devs will have this game up there with OOTP and FM.

[TEHLUDDITE]

December 2014 - January 2015

The months of December and January were defined by injuries to the forward core, development from the youngsters and decline in the veterans. The overall result was that the Sabres generally held their own, posting a 9-12-5 record for the two months. Goals were still hard to come by, but the club is now scoring at a higher pace than last year's team, so there is reason for optimism. The Sabres remain 30th overall, 6 points behind the 29th place team. The increase in scoring has come at a cost - goals against are up about 10% over last season - but that may be the price of developing prospects at the NHL level.

The goaltending picture has settled itself out. Michal Neuvirth has separated himself from Jonas Enroth and now gets the bulk of the starts. His stats aren't much better than Enroth's overall, but he as shown an ability to win games while Enroth is almost always the losing goalie in the game summary. Accordingly, Neuvirth was inked to a three year extension in January at $2.8 million per season. The development of Ville Husso in Rochester has sealed Enroth's fate - he will be traded or allowed to leave as an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

The defence managed to remain healthy for the first long stretch in memory, but we were plagued instead by inconsistent play from them as a group. Tyler Myers and Christian Erhoff still line up as the top pair and are solid most nights, although it is pretty obvious when they struggle that they would be a second pairing on a good team. Jamie McBain and Rasmus Ristolainen have settled in as an all-offence second pairing. When they are good, they are very good but, as you might expect from young defencemen, when they're bad they are dreadful. Mike Weber is playing the steady tutor to 19 yr-old Nikita Zadorov on the third pair and most nights they hold their own. Zadorov is growing game by game and actually has the best plus/minus stat of all the Sabres defencemen.

Up front, a forward group already thinned out by the off-season defections of Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno suffered through a multitude of injuries in late December and early January. Top wingers Drew Stafford and Chris Stewart missed about 3 weeks each, forcing some lineup shuffling. Somehow through all the turmoil, Cody Hodgson turned in a solid performance, vaulting into the club scoring lead (16g, 16a), a point ahead of the years' biggest surprise story, rookie Johan Larsson (11g, 20a). Larsson has been excellent, leading the team in PP points and serving on the PK as well. In December, he was signed to a five year extension worth $15.4 million. Joel Armia (12g, 18a) ranks 3rd as he continues his fine rookie season while veteran Drew Stafford (12g, 15a) is 4th despite missing time to an injury. The real surprise of Dec-Jan games has been 19 yr-old Nikita Scherbak, who would have been back in junior this season if the Sabres had been given the choice. Scherbak now ranks 5th in team scoring (11g, 15a) and is 2nd in plus/minus behind Riley Sheahan. Scherbak's surge in development has accompanied the decline in performance of Chris Stewart (10g, 8a although injured most of January) and Zemgus Girgensons (9g, 9a), whose production has fallen off dramatically after a decent start. The aforementioned Sheahan (9g, 8a) has proven his worth as a bottom six forward and penalty killer and is producing a solid season. The other noteworthy development is the story of Ville Leino who is playing himself off the roster and will likely be bought out in the offseason.



On the Farm/Prospect Watch

In the AHL, Rochester is leading its division on the strength of the incredible season being put together by 19-yr old Ville Husso in goal. Husso ranks second in the AHL in goals against and save percentage as of Feb. 1st. He is probably better right now than either of the Sabres goalies but his time wil have to wait until a vacancy is created. At this point, the Sabres expect him to win the starting job for 2015-16 wih the NHL club. Also contrubuting to Rochester's success is 1st year pro Logan Nelson, a center who is developing nicely and ranks 5th in the AHL scoring race. Fellow rookie J.T.Compher is having a solid pro debut and won't turn 20 until April. He is second on the club in scoring. Mikhail Grigorenko is showing that he is a legitmate scoring threat at the pro level and may be poised to have a big finish to his rookie season since the scouting reports reveal that he is vastly improved since the beginning of the season. Rugged winger William Carrier has battled injuries but is playing solidly and has also drawn praise from the scouts recently. On defence, Jake McCabe has an unimpressive stat line and isn't playing badly but our scouts are clearly disappointed with his progress so far.

The big news regarding the players drafted last summer concerns top pick Aaron Ekblad, a defenceman with Barrie in the OHL. Ekblad has been showing good growth, enjoying a good season and looking ready to challenge for a spot on the Sabres blueline next year. All that came to an abrupt end January 25th when Ekblad suffered a knee injury that may keep him sidelined until after Christmas 2015. This is a potentially large blow to the rebuild if Ekblad cannot get back on track after his recovery and reach his potential. On a more positive note, our other 1st rounder from 2014, Leon Draisaitl, continues to lead the WHL in scoring. His development has our scouts projecting him into the lineup no later than 2016-17 and perhaps before. Swedish winger Anton Karlsson, one of our 2nd rounders last summer, is still only practicing with his Swedish club team. Our scouts are very concerned that his development is being stalled by lack of competitive experience. Fifth round pick Brendan Lemieux has tailed off his fast start but is still playing in all situations and ranks 2nd on Barrie in scoring, Jan Mandat, drafted in the 7th round, leads his QMJHL team in scoring but doesn't seem to be developing very much. We may need to see him play as a minor pro with Rochester next year before we know exactly what we have in him.

[TEHLUDDITE]

February-March-April 2015

Last year at this time the club was coming off a solid middle third of the season and completely collapsed after Feb 1st. In what is now an annual rite of spring, the 2014-15 Sabres posted a .500 record for their 5 games in February - for some reason there is another "Olympic break" in the 2014-15 schedule - and then sunk like a stone (3-18-3) the rest of the way. The final standings show the Sabres in 30th place overall, a full 19 points behind the 29th place club. Over the latter part of the schedule, the defence got exploited regularly and the club's goals against average soared. The coaching staff shuffled the lines and tactical approach regularly but never found any lasting solutions.

In early February, the club made it known that all the veterans in their final contract year would be available for trade. The list included wingers Drew Stafford and Chris Stewart as well as utility forwards Brian Flynn and Tory Mitchell. Also on the trade block was goalie Jonas Enroth and defenceman Willie Mitchell. On Feb.20th the Oilers concluded a deal to acquire Willie Mitchell, sending 21 yr-old center Travis Ewanyk to the Sabres. Ewanyk, a defensive-minded faceoff specialist will struggle to get fourth line minutes, but he was the best we could hope for in return for the 37 yr-old Mitchell. [A quick note about my trading rules for this sim: unless the player I'm moving fits logically into the target team's roster or plans, I won't make an offer. I measure the worth of the trade by whether the target team is improved as a result, thereby avoiding rip-offs of the AI, but also making it extremely difficult to find deals.] No deals for any of the other trade listees materialized and the deadline passed without any further trading. Ultimately Chris Stewart was signed to a 3 year extension worth $16.5 million.

Jonas Enroth posted final stats that were slightly better than fellow netminder Michal Neuvirth, but the fact that neither goalie could elevate his play has convinced the Sabres that their goaltending future lies elsewhere. Neuvirth got the bulk of the starts on the basis of his ability to win more of his starts than Enroth but was the league's second worst starter in GAA and ranked in the bottom 10 in save percentage.
On defence, the top pair of Erhoff (8-24-32) and Myers (7-23-30) finished 1-2 in defenceman scoring with Jamie McBain (4-25-29) third. Rasmus Ristolainen (4-10-14) struggled through a difficult rookie season, although his defensive game did improve as the year went along. Fellow rookie Nikita Zadorov (2-11-13) generally acquitted himself well in his own end as a 19 yr-old. Mike Weber (0-11-11 and a club-worst -38 plus/minus rating) was a bit of a washout, casting doubt on his immediate future. Seventh defenceman Mark Pysyk posted 7 assists in 17 games and was eventually signed to a 3 yr $2.67 million extension as defensive insurance moving forward.

The picture up front was brighter as the club worked four rookie forwards into the lineup. Young veteran Cody Hodgson (28-30-58) led the team in all offensive categories with fellow vet Drew Stafford (20-26-46) finishing second in club scoring. Rookies Joel Armia (17-27-44), Nikita Scherbak (18-25-43) and Johan Larsson (13-28-41) were 3rd through 5th in scoring which could be a good sign or an indictment of the veteran talent on the Sabres. For example, veteran winger Chris Stewart (20-19-39) struggled to find consistency all year, while offensive contributions from Brian Flynn, Ville Leino, Cory Conacher, Torrey Mitchell and Matt Ellis were very rare. Zemgus Girgensons, the fourth rookie forward, and regarded as the most promising of the group, really struggled in making the jump to the NHL picking up just 12 goals and 13 assists despite receiving prominent ice time. Waiver pickup Riley Sheahan set career highs in goals, assists and points (15-15-30) and was the club's best defensive forward.

On the Farm/Prospect Watch

Rochester posted a winning record but missed the playoffs in a competitive AHL conference. They were led in scoring by first-year pros Logan Nelson (21-32-53 in 72 GP), Mikhail Grigorenko (28-11-39 in 62 games and 1-1-2 in 4 GP with Buffalo and J.T. Compher (10-27-37 in 74 GP), but it was 19 yr-old Finnish goalie Ville Husso who was the true star of the club. Husso led the AHL in Save Percentage and appears to be on the fast track to Buffalo. The other first-year pros that drew praise from the scouts were rugged winger William Carrier and defenceman Jake McCabe. The scouts feel that Husso, Grigorenko and Carrier all have a shot at playing with the Sabres next year.

Leon Draisaitl faded a bit down the stretch, finishing 3rd in WHL scoring and then went on a tear in the playoffs allthough his team was eliminated in the second round. Brendan Lemieux showed consistent improvement and nearly tripled his point production of the year before but his Barrie Colts never recovered from the loss of top Buffalo prospect Aaron Ekblad and were eliminated in the first playoff round. Jan Mandat led his QMJHL team in scoring and helped carry them to a league championship and Memorial Cup appearance where they lost in the final. Overseas goalie Linus Ullmark played solidly as MoDo's starter although the club failed to make much noise in the SHL. Ullmark's teammate, Gustav Possler, was 3rd in club scoring but made minimal progress over last year. Anton Karlsson, also in the SHL with Frolunda, did not appear in a single game for the club. Seemingly, he is too good for their junior team but not good enough for the elite league team and is stuck in a kind of development-less limbo. He remains, however, a top prospect.

[TEHLUDDITE]

Post-Season Analysis

To say that the 2014-15 Sabres weren't very good is understating the situation. The coaches made an effort to promote a more offensive approach to their tactical systems and even though that resulted in improved offensive output compared to the previous year, the club still finished last in goals for. The tactical decision also affected the defensive performance, as the goals against total was much higher than the year before and the club's standing was also last in that category. Neither goaltender thrived in the new system and, with a host of inexpienced young players (6 rookies) in the lineup, the team suffered from inconsistency as well, playing well for very short stretches before falling once again into the abyss. The club was really hurt by the defections of Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno to the KHL, although that brought the silver lining of opening up roster space for two rookies to play. If there was a bright spot in the Sabres season, it would have been the play of the rookies. Three were excellent (Armia, Scherbak and Larsson), two held their own (Zadorov, Ristolainen) and only Girgensons was a disappointment, perhaps because we held such high hopes for him.

In goal, Michal Neuvirth handled the bulk of the starts, winning a third of them, but his stats ballooned (3.60 GAA, .896 SA%) and his tenure as the #1 goalie may already be at its end. Backup Jonas Enroth was better statistically (3.41, .902) but couldn't win and the decision has been taken to let him leave as a free agent to make roster space for Finnish teenager Ville Husso. In fact, Husso may emerge from next year's training camp as the Sabre starter after an excellent debut in North America with Rochester (AHL). The Sabres are also expected to take a run at signing Linus Ullmark, their other top goalie prospect, with the hope that a year of development in the AHL will enable him to join Husso as the Sabres goaltending tandem of the future.

The defence corps got a new look last season with the introduction of Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Zadorov as regulars. Veteran Christian Erhoff was the leader on D once again, providing a solid partner for Tyler Myers on the top pariring. Myers enjoyed a better season than in 2013-14 but we are still waiting for him to take the next step and fill his enormous potential. He needs to demonstrate the ability to play effectively without Erhoff at his side. Jamie McBain had almost an indentical season to 2013-14 and seems to have settled in as a powerplay pointman and 3rd or 4th defenceman. Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Zadorov both made significant progress as rookies and were much better in the 2nd half of the season, so we're looking forward to seeing what they can do with increased icetime next year. The sixth defenceman this year was hard-nosed Mike Weber, a shut-down type, but his season was so bad that he might yield his spot next year to the younger and more offensively-inclined Mark Pysyk. The club had hoped that #1 pick Aaron Ekblad would be ready for 2015-16 but he will still be recovering from his terrible knee injury until around Christmas. A decision on how to proceed with his development will have to wait until he is healthy, although it is extremely unlikely that he'll be a Sabre next year. The other blueline hopeful is Jake McCabe who played in Rochester and made slow but steady progress, He may be ready sometime in the coming season, but we are projecting another full year in the minors before he makes a bid for a roster spot with the Sabres. Defence will be a position we will look at very seriously in the June draft, where there are some very promising prospects.

The Sabres forwards were generally a deeper group than in the previous season, even after the loss of Ennis and Foligno to KHL teams. Cody Hodgson has emerged as the offensive leader, posting another decent season and the play of the rookies is also a reason for some optimism moving forward. Stalwart two-way winger Drew Stafford will not be back as the club has determined that his contract demands exceed his declining value at age 29. Chris Stewart, fresh off signing a 3-year extension will likely be the other top 6 forward joining Hodgson, Armia, Scherbak, Larsson and Girgensons). Like Girgensons, though, Stewart will need to be better to justify his icetime and for the club to improve. The bottom two lines will see some shakeups following the decision to let Ville Leino, Torrey Mitchell, Brian Flynn and Matt Ellis go. Riley Sheahan and Cory Conacher will be back and are likely to be joined by Mikhail Girgorenko and William Carrier who played in Rochester this year. Other possibilities up front are Rochester centers Daniel Catenacci and Travis Ewanyk and graduating juniors Leon Draisaitl and Brendan Lemieux. The long-term hope is that we can draft and develop legitimate top line forwards to bump everyone else down a line, at which point we expect to be competitive for a playoff berth. The Sabres are holding their breath prior to this year's draft lottery since the best player available is center Connor McDavid, a generational talent, who will likely step in immediately as a #1 center with whoever drafts him. Obviously the addition of such a player would be a huge boost to the Sabres' rebuilding plan.


June 1, 2015
Kevin Dineen produced his Top 25 list for the 2015 NHL Draft today and to no one's surprise the top rated player is Connor McDavid. There's a big drop-off after McDavid, but Dineen is rating 3 defenceman and a center so highly that in another year any of them could have been the #1 pick. US-born Jack Eichel is an offensively-gifted center playing college hockey. He is thought to be a few years away from being ready. Swedish defenceman Rasmus Andersson may be ready to play a prominent role immediately and has the look of a bonafide future All-Star. Countryman Oscar Kylington may also be ready for an NHL job and projects as a stud two-way defender. Noah Hanifin has size, strength and skill but is very raw and his draft value will be high for a team willing to be patient with his development. The rest of the list indicates that this will be a deep draft with the only possible weakness once again being goaltending.

June 15, 2015
Ville Leino was bought out today. The club is on the hook for $1.667 million over the next six years, but with plenty of cap room, that is a minor consideration balanced against opening up roster space for younger more promising forwards.

June 21, 2015
The draft lottery was held today and, as the Sabres management held it breath, the league announced that Carolina had won it. The Hurricanes move up four spots to pick 8th but more importantly the Sabres will retain the 1st overall selection. Its a great day.