Fascinating Article from Hardball Times on Pitch selection/location and HR-rate

Mike Donlin · 04-23-2009, 09:48 AM

What makes a home run pitch -- The Hardball Times

If OOTP ever moves to a pitch-driven outcome calculation, data like this will be invaluable.

Jose Cardenal's Afro · 04-23-2009, 11:00 AM

That is great data. Here is a quandary. If all pitchers pitched based on this data, would hitters be able to adjust and thus skewing the numbers again?

Mike Donlin · 04-23-2009, 11:24 AM

Since the data just confirm what we basically already knew--keep the ball down, down and away is difficult to hit out, etc.--I think batters already have made an adjustment. The curious thing, for me, is that everybody already knows these things and still it's difficult to hit home runs if pitches are properly located.

Giants44 · 04-23-2009, 11:57 AM

I agree that the data wouldn't really change the way pitchers pitch.

for example the pitch most hit for a HR is a slider up, in other words a slider that is "hung" and the least is the slider down and away which of course is where the pitcher is trying to throw it.

Malleus Dei · 04-23-2009, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Donlin

Since the data just confirm what we basically already knew--keep the ball down, down and away is difficult to hit out, etc.

But there are still these other pesky things called walks and hits.

RchW · 04-23-2009, 04:01 PM

And wind tunnel effects from billion dollar stadiums.

Mike Donlin · 04-23-2009, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

But there are still these other pesky things called walks and hits.

Yeah, the author of the study is only talking about home runs--I thought that was clear. Even so, presumably there would be some correlation (inverse) between home run rate and location and K-rate and location. That is, if people are hitting few balls down and away or high out of the strike zone for home runs, they may--may, one would have to look--be swinging and missing at those pitches more often as well. Basically, the pitch data could be used to determine, when pitchers are ahead in the count, which pitch and which location they would be best served throwing. Again, nothing we didn't know before, but this give some empirical verification to it.

Malleus Dei · 04-23-2009, 04:38 PM

I can't help but think that trying to throw down and away to suppress HR/9 is going to hurt BB/9 and H/9 significantly. I would have loved it if a pitcher tried to do that to me back when I played.

04-23-2009, 09:48 AM	#1 (permalink)
Mike Donlin All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Life, friends, is boring. Posts: 812 Thanks: 15 Thanked 16x in 9 posts	Fascinating Article from Hardball Times on Pitch selection/location and HR-rate What makes a home run pitch -- The Hardball Times If OOTP ever moves to a pitch-driven outcome calculation, data like this will be invaluable.

04-23-2009, 11:57 AM	#4 (permalink)
Giants44 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 2,039 Thanks: 25 Thanked 63x in 27 posts	I agree that the data wouldn't really change the way pitchers pitch. for example the pitch most hit for a HR is a slider up, in other words a slider that is "hung" and the least is the slider down and away which of course is where the pitcher is trying to throw it. __________________ "In a text sim - Immersion is everything" -Me "Judge a man not by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character" -Martin Luther King "Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts." -Einstein "The man who views the world at 50 the same as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life." -Muhammad Ali "Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything." -Toby Harrah

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

04-23-2009, 11:00 AM	#2 (permalink)
Jose Cardenal's Afro Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Limbo Posts: 369 Thanks: 10 Thanked 14x in 10 posts	That is great data. Here is a quandary. If all pitchers pitched based on this data, would hitters be able to adjust and thus skewing the numbers again?

04-23-2009, 11:24 AM	#3 (permalink)
Mike Donlin All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Life, friends, is boring. Posts: 812 Thanks: 15 Thanked 16x in 9 posts	Since the data just confirm what we basically already knew--keep the ball down, down and away is difficult to hit out, etc.--I think batters already have made an adjustment. The curious thing, for me, is that everybody already knows these things and still it's difficult to hit home runs if pitches are properly located.