The Mark Belanger Effect in OOTPX

[knockahoma]

Recently, several threads pointed out how OOTP's AI struggled to appreciate defensive whiz guys like Mark Belanger. In 9 out of 10 sims of the 74 and 76 seasons (my favorites and ones I repeatedly sim), Belanger was often rated a mediocre shortstop and was either relegated to the minors, or traded, to make room for fringe players like Frank Baker. Some years, the AI decided that playing Brooks Robinson (rated a 1 on a scale of 20) every 10 games behind Baker was more preferable than perennial gold-glover Belanger.

I won't have X for a few days. Could somebody run some quick sims on the 74 season and report how the AI handles Belanger? If he's the starter in several sims, maybe the issue has been fixed.

Thanks!

[satchel]

Originally Posted by knockahoma

...Brooks Robinson (rated a 1 on a scale of 20)...

Brooks Robinson is a 1 out of 20 in what category? Don't tell me it's defense.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by satchel

Brooks Robinson is a 1 out of 20 in what category? Don't tell me it's defense.

I just imported 1974 with default settings, and Robinson is rated 16/20... which makes sense, he was 36 that year

Regarding the main topic: Belanger was so bad at hitting, it is tough to convince the AI to start him. I think this is right, cause defense couldn't possible make up what he cost his team on offense. I read some study sometime about just this topic, but I do not recall where...

[knockahoma]

Yep. Rated 1 as a shortstop and was slated to play 1 of every 10 games. Actually, it went like this.

Weaver: Our shortstop situation sucks. Who we got this year?

Coach: Belanger.

Weaver: Oh for the love of Mary's pet goat, Jose!

Coach: I know, I know. A waste of his mother's Import... What about Frank Baker?

Weaver: Rated?

Coach: 12 defense. 10 hitter.

Weaver: Belanger's an 18 D, right?

Coach. Right.

Weaver: Yeah, but he's only a 9 hitter. Hey! Decinces is coming up. What if we move Brooksy over to SS once in a while, you know, just to juice things up?

Coach: Well, his legs are almost gone. He is 38. He's just not the 3B he once was, so.... yeah, let's try him at shortstop! I like it...

Weaver: That's what I'm thinkin'. Send in that girl scout Belanger on your way out...

[Markus Heinsohn]

Funny I suggest toying around with the different defense import options...

[Malleus Dei]

I posted this elsewhere and Markus endorsed it (Blade is Belanger's nickname, btw):

"Since Blade just totally sucked as a hitter - he was the Triple Crown loser in 1970 (dead last in all three categories), and had a lifetime batting average of .228 in eighteen seasons with twenty HR - his value was in his defense. Now if defense is, as some claim, as much as one third of a player's overall value, then every other candidate to play SS for the team he was on would have to both be a poor hitter (as opposed to a hideously awful one, like Belanger) and be fielding the position really badly (as in with a machete and not a glove) in order to make Belanger the best option available. An average hitter/average fielder would be a far better choice.

Belanger should be no more than a defensive replacement."

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

I just imported 1974 with default settings, and Robinson is rated 16/20... which makes sense, he was 36 that year

And yet he still won a Gold Glove that year, was named an All-Star, and was #12 in the MVP voting. Not bad, eh?

[Malleus Dei]

A personal note: I saw both Belanger and Robinson play. Belanger was good, but Robinson...the things he would do on the field! He was amazing! As a young third baseman, I was awed. Many years later, I can still remember some of the plays he made as if it was yesterday, and still wonder how he ever made them!

[eriqjaffe]

As we can have the AI evaluate players based on customizeable weights (ratings/stats/history), why not add a weight for defense to that equation?

[CONN CHRIS]

How does Herb Washington import? I've never done it.

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

As we can have the AI evaluate players based on customizeable weights (ratings/stats/history), why not add a weight for defense to that equation?

Great idea! Post that in the OOTP 11 suggestions box. And add average, OBP, and power to the list.

[Rondell Tate]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

And yet he still won a Gold Glove that year, was named an All-Star, and was #12 in the MVP voting. Not bad, eh?

The fact he was in the mix that year for MVP suggests many voters confused him and Frank ... he did hit .288 with no power or speed, and his combined RS/RBI was just over 100 ...

[RchW]

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS

How does Herb Washington import? I've never done it.

Faster than everybody else?

[knockahoma]

Just got back and saw that Marcus and I must have posted simultaneously.

Funny I suggest toying around with the different defense import options...

I'll give 'er a shot. Since I have your ear, thanks for the game. While I'm working out a few issues with AI and imports, once again, I'm a tremendous fan of the flexibility OOTP offers. I love the chance to manipulate practically whatever I want.

I posted this elsewhere and Markus endorsed it (Blade is Belanger's nickname, btw):

"Since Blade just totally sucked as a hitter - he was the Triple Crown loser in 1970 (dead last in all three categories), and had a lifetime batting average of .228 in eighteen seasons with twenty HR - his value was in his defense. Now if defense is, as some claim, as much as one third of a player's overall value, then every other candidate to play SS for the team he was on would have to both be a poor hitter (as opposed to a hideously awful one, like Belanger) and be fielding the position really badly (as in with a machete and not a glove) in order to make Belanger the best option available. An average hitter/average fielder would be a far better choice.

Belanger should be no more than a defensive replacement."

Sez you! Weaver and the guys watching Belanger every day, year after year, calculated differently. He was a bad hitter for his era, but his BA looks even worse today. I guess Belanger was rated the 20th coolest Oriole Dude-Player of all time by this page, which wrote, bold mine.

From 1968 through 1978, Belanger won eight Gold Gloves and played in at least 140 games every year except for 1972 (105) and 1978 (134). Weaver had the pitching and the three-run homers covered by others. Belanger was there to be a golden example of the fundamentals, and he did his job excellently.



Rather than just belly-ache, I've been trying to figure out how to manipulate the AI to the type of historical I want. And your point is well-taken. If you look at Belanger, especially with today's baseball eye, he might be nothing but a replacement. It might be hard for the AI to differentiate on cases such as this. But, they used to argue that catchers without bats held little value and everybody should have a slug who could hit 20 homers, even if he caught every pitch off his face-mask. A few Cliff Johnsons later and the Duffy Dyers were looking good, again.

But, I think it's a bit of cheating to take today's knowledge (or theories) back into the past. Belanger was highly valued and many teams would have loved his D, my beloved Braves being one of them! 8 Golden Gloves sounds pretty darn good in an age that treasured defense. It wasn't that long before Belanger that an entire league (AL, I believe) of Shortstops hit only 20 homers for the whole season! Seems that was the early 60's if I recall correctly.

I was thinking of how teams sacrifice the bat for glove at one or two positions, and how the AI might be trained to consider that. That's a toughie. The only thing I could think of was giving a "prefer defense" option at each position. That way, when you have teams with thunderous bats and an average to poor shortstop, you check-mark for defense at the number 6 spot. Voila! Problem solved, with a few key taps.

[RMc]

How does Herb Washington import? I've never done it.

My 1871-2009 sim (q.v.) had Herb spending six years in rookie ball, getting a total of 21 AB in 24 games. No stolen bases, but he did hit a home run!

His batting imports are all bad, of course: all less than 20 on a 1-100 scale. Worse, his running speed is only 4 (out of 100!) and stealing Bases is 13! The only thing he's good for is Scarifice Bunt: 80.

So I maxed out all of Washington's running numbers and reduced all hitting ratings to 1, just to see what I'd get...

In the simmed 1974 season, Herb Washington...appeared in 12 exhibition games (including one where he pinch-ran, then played CF and even batted, promptly striking out). He was on the reserve roster the entire regular season.

So it looks like OOTP just isn't set up for Designated Runners...

[Spritze]

What I don't understand is that since the Lahman DB contains a csv of all the Gold Glove winners why doesn't Markus merely added a defensive bonus based on that file to his calculated defensive abilities. It would go a long way toward making fielding leaderboards make sense, not perfect but more in line with players expectations. He could Belangerate the fielders in this manner.

[tysok]

Originally Posted by Spritze

He could Belangerate the fielders in this manner.

Interesting word... although doesn't sound so good.
How's Ozzie Smith after Markus Belangerated him?

I hadn't heard of Herb Washington before... that's an interesting little by-line in baseball history. At 31 for 48 he obviously wasn't greatly spectacular at stealing bases though.

[CONN CHRIS]

Originally Posted by RMc

So it looks like OOTP just isn't set up for Designated Runners...

I don't think MLB was either.

Thanks, I suppose that to get it right with respect to Mr Washington (and who would care that much) you would have to manage the A's for a season and a month and be sure just to use him as a pinch runner. I suppose that you'd also have to manualy adjust his ratings. No hitting or fielding skills - none at all. Blazing speed and well-below average base running instincts.

[JoeGoNets]

As mentioned above, the fact that Weaver used Belanger a lot should tell you something. It is possible that the use of Belanger was based on habit of overemphasizing defense at SS, but I think Weaver gets the benefit of the doubt.

1. It may be the problem that there isn't enough of a gap in the game between outstanding fielders and merely good ones or average ones, or it may be that the gap is fine but that the AI doesn't recognize it properly.

2. It may be that the problem that the game doesn't emphasize defense enough at 2B and SS in comparison to other positions, or it may be that the game does that fine but that the AI doesn't recognize it. By the way, I'll note that pre-1950 or so, there was more emphasis on glove at 3B and less on hitting.

3. It may be that the AI doesn't properly recognize when it is in a low-run environment, where defense matters more.

4. Finally, and perhaps more difficult, I think humans recognize when it is okay to have one Belanger in the lineup (hitting eighth), but humans fear two. The AI probably fears even one.

5. Or the game may be fine, the AI is right, and where prejudiced in favor of Belanger.

[JoeGoNets]

OOps, I mean't "we're" in the previous post.