Starting Pitchers Success Tied To K Rate?

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by RonCo

I suggest the reason for this is that, on average, a pitcher's ability to strike out hitters tends to peak at something around 24 (flying blind here, so I may be off a year or so too old), and fall off very gently for many years thereafter. Given that, it's reasonable to think that if he's not striking out a respectable number of hitters by age 26, it's quite unlikley that pitcher will be able to stick around for another decade.

That's perfectly logical.

[BMW]

Originally Posted by Malleus Dei

And that's the point: pitchers without a significant K-rate by age 26 tend to have much shorter careers that those who do. It's an observable, verifiable truth. End of story.

The key is "tend." There's no doubt you'll find exceptions. These aren't mathematical proofs or laws of nature.

Finding singular exceptions doesn't disprove the theory. Finding that all pitchers over a long stretch of time do not tend to fit this mold would disprove the theory.

[BMW]

This is a quick list.

Best starting pitchers since 1954 as of age 26, with a K/9 greater than 4.5
(defining # of IP as "best")

  Cnt Player              IP    SO/9 From  To
+----+-----------------+------+-----+----+----+
    1 Bert Blyleven     2143.2  7.25 1970 1977 
    2 Don Drysdale      1945    6.88 1956 1963 
    3 Catfish Hunter    1881.2  5.99 1965 1972 
    4 Fernando Valenzue 1805.2  7.30 1980 1987 
    5 Dwight Gooden     1713.2  8.09 1984 1991 
    6 Joe Coleman       1704.2  6.45 1965 1973 
    7 Vida Blue         1666    6.26 1969 1976 
    8 Larry Dierker     1651    5.99 1964 1973 
    9 Milt Pappas       1632    5.21 1957 1965 
   10 Frank Tanana      1615.1  6.87 1973 1980 
   11 Dick Ellsworth    1613.1  5.05 1958 1966 
   12 Denny McLain      1593    6.50 1963 1970 
   13 Sam McDowell      1590    9.41 1961 1969 
   14 Ken Holtzman      1541.2  6.08 1965 1972 
   15 Dean Chance       1520.1  6.38 1961 1967 
   16 Rick Wise         1513.1  5.11 1964 1972 
   17 Dennis Eckersley  1500    6.33 1975 1981 
   18 Don Sutton        1485    6.98 1966 1971 
   19 Mike Witt         1475.1  6.18 1981 1987 
   20 Bret Saberhagen   1464    5.88 1984 1990 
   21 Greg Maddux       1442    5.85 1986 1992 
   22 C.C. Sabathia     1406.1  7.31 2001 2007 
   23 Mike McCormick    1398.1  5.29 1956 1965 
   24 Jim Palmer        1391.2  6.05 1965 1972 
   25 Dave Stieb        1389    5.02 1979 1984

Best starting pitchers since 1954 as of age 26, with a K/9 less than 4.5
(defining # of IP as "best")

  Cnt Player              IP    SO/9 From  To
+----+-----------------+------+-----+----+----+
    1 Pedro Ramos       1544.1  4.31 1955 1961 
    2 Ross Grimsley     1230.2  3.83 1971 1976 
    3 Jim Slaton        1227.2  4.38 1971 1976 
    4 Lary Sorensen     1183.2  2.78 1977 1982 
    5 Doyle Alexander   1059    3.13 1971 1977 
    6 Matt Keough       1016.1  4.27 1977 1982 
    7 Steve Trout        992    4.11 1978 1984 
    8 Jaime Navarro      953.1  4.33 1989 1993 
    9 Randy Jones        948.1  3.77 1973 1976 
   10 John Denny         934.2  3.94 1974 1979 
   11 Bill Travers       914    3.91 1974 1979 
   12 Dave Rozema        906.1  3.53 1977 1983 
   13 Joe Niekro         903.1  3.47 1967 1971 
   14 Tom Murphy         865.2  3.95 1968 1972 
   15 Ron Kline          843    3.95 1955 1958 
   16 Randy Lerch        837.1  4.16 1975 1981 
   17 Jim Perry          831.2  3.93 1959 1962 
   18 John Buzhardt      807    3.68 1958 1963 
   19 Mike Torrez        802.1  4.31 1967 1973 
   20 Roger Erickson     799.1  4.11 1978 1983 
   21 Ricky Bones        792    3.33 1991 1995 
   22 Scott McGregor     788.1  4.05 1976 1980 
   23 Neal Heaton        785.1  3.85 1982 1986 
   24 Andy Hawkins       767.1  4.07 1982 1986 
   25 Nino Espinosa      745.2  3.81 1974 1980

Best starting pitchers since 1954 as of age 26, with a K/9 greater than 4.5
(defining highest ERA+ as "best", min 300 ip)

  Cnt Player            ERA+  SO/9   IP   From  To
+----+-----------------+----+-----+------+----+----+
    1 Tim Lincecum       150 10.16  598.2 2007 2009 
    2 Orel Hershiser     150  6.42  437.1 1983 1985 
    3 Tom Seaver         149  7.54 1379   1967 1971 
    4 Pedro Martinez     145  9.59 1146   1992 1998 
    5 Roy Oswalt         142  8.11  739   2001 2004 
    6 Jerry Koosman      142  6.30  527   1967 1969 
    7 Johnny Antonelli   141  5.26  752.1 1954 1956 
    8 Kevin Appier       139  6.87 1017   1989 1994 
    9 Roger Clemens      139  8.51 1284.2 1984 1989 
   10 Mike Mussina       139  5.60  894.1 1991 1995 
   11 Matt Morris        139  6.71  600   1997 2001 
   12 Frank Sullivan     138  4.69  708.1 1954 1956 
   13 Brandon Webb       136  7.40  617.2 2003 2005 
   14 Rich Harden        136  8.99  612.2 2003 2008 
   15 Mike Boddicker     136  5.15  479   1980 1984 
   16 Jimmy Key          135  5.05  767.2 1984 1987 
   17 Bert Blyleven      134  7.25 2143.2 1970 1977 
   18 Whitey Ford        133  5.08  464.1 1954 1955 
   19 Jair Jurrjens      131  6.30  434   2007 2009 
   20 Tim Hudson         130  7.03  812   1999 2002 
   21 Carlos Zambrano    130  7.86 1193.1 2001 2007 
   22 Barry Zito         130  7.10  981   2000 2004 
   23 Dave Stieb         129  5.02 1389   1979 1984 
   24 Juan Guzman        129  8.03  540.1 1991 1993 
   25 Jon Lester         128  7.85  558   2006 2009

Best starting pitchers since 1954 as of age 26, with a K/9 less than 4.5
(defining highest ERA+ as "best", min 300 ip)

  Cnt Player            ERA+  SO/9   IP   From  To
+----+-----------------+----+-----+------+----+----+
    1 Mark Fidrych       126  3.71  412.1 1976 1980 
    2 Dave Rozema        122  3.53  906.1 1977 1983 
    3 Dave Frost         120  3.98  343.1 1977 1979 
    4 Chien-Ming Wang    117  3.31  334.1 2005 2006 
    5 Dennis Lamp        114  3.39  454   1977 1979 
    6 Curt Simmons       114  4.30  383   1954 1955 
    7 Randy Jones        113  3.77  948.1 1973 1976 
    8 Bob Forsch         112  3.83  524   1974 1976 
    9 Tom Poholsky       112  4.23  460   1954 1956 
   10 Al Nipper          109  4.34  360.2 1983 1985 
   11 Scott McGregor     109  4.05  788.1 1976 1980 
   12 Greg Hibbard       108  3.62  542.1 1989 1991 
   13 Steve Comer        108  3.59  401.1 1978 1980 
   14 Ross Baumgarten    107  4.09  451.1 1978 1981 
   15 Rick Waits         106  4.14  560.2 1973 1978 
   16 Allan Anderson     105  3.79  684.1 1986 1990 
   17 Rick Rhoden        104  4.36  675.1 1974 1979 
   18 Ron Kline          104  3.95  843   1955 1958 
   19 Horacio Ramirez    104  4.28  521.1 2003 2006 
   20 Steve Kline        104  2.84  730   1970 1974 
   21 Doyle Alexander    103  3.13 1059   1971 1977 
   22 John Stuper        103  3.60  334.2 1982 1983 
   23 Aaron Cook         102  3.21  339.2 2002 2005 
   24 Ricky Bones        102  3.33  792   1991 1995 
   25 Steve Trout        101  4.11  992   1978 1984

[RonCo]

Nice lists.

[BMW]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Nice lists.

I still wear my Tom Poholsky jersey at least once a month.

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by BMW

I still wear my Tom Poholsky jersey at least once a month.

Why? He stunk.

[RonCo]

We all have our guilty pleasures.

[Malleus Dei]

"Good point," said the long-time Astros fan.