Minor League Prospect Talent Hits

[Qwerty75]

In previous versions, prospects took a hit to their potential ratings if they remained at a level too high or too low for their current ratings for an extended period of time. Does this still happen? If so, does anyone have an idea how long at the wrong level it takes for the hit to take place?

A rule of thumb that I have used in the past is to move a prospect up to the next level if the Minor League Report has stated that he is "Ready" to be promoted for two weeks. Longer than that, I feel that I'm exposing him to the risk of a talent hit (a player may last quite a bit longer at the "wrong" level, but in v8/2007 I found that hits happened as quickly as two weeks). I'm not sure if this is still a good idea in the current version.

Related questions: Does good performance in the minors still result in faster development? Does poor performance lead to a talent hit?

[Qwerty75]

Anyone?

[Qwerty75]

Can anyone help?

I have a young CF who put up a .800 OPS in AAA who's been shown as "Ready for the Majors" for several months. I may trade my current CF to make a spot for him on the major league roster, but the prospect's ratings (both current and talent) are comparatively lower, so if he won't suffer a ratings hit while staying in AAA, I think I would prefer to stash him there for another year while hoping for a bounce-back year from the incumbent to build trade value before shipping him off.

[damientheomen3]

Well, I'm only speaking from my experience, but I once kept a prospect who was fully developed in AAA for 3 seasons because the best player on my team played the same position and had a contract that expired when I finally called the kid up. I don't think he took any hits in his ratings.

[Qwerty75]

The prospect I referred to in post #3 just dropped 1/20 in contact and 1/20 in eye. I'm not sure if this has anything to do with staying in the minors when "Ready for the Majors," or if it's something out of my control such as scouting error.

Anyone else have any insights?

[Kelric]

If it has only been three months, I would say it isn't because he's reached his 'ceiling' in the minors. I would guess it was random bad luck or scout issue if you have scouts on. But that is just a guess. I regularly sit guys for half a season to a season and a half if they are blocked in the bigs. Usually it works fine, sometimes it doesn't.

[Qwerty75]

Originally Posted by Kelric

If it has only been three months, I would say it isn't because he's reached his 'ceiling' in the minors. I would guess it was random bad luck or scout issue if you have scouts on. But that is just a guess. I regularly sit guys for half a season to a season and a half if they are blocked in the bigs. Usually it works fine, sometimes it doesn't.

So when it doesn't work, the prospect takes a ratings hit? How big of a ratings hit?

[Kelric]

A point or two here or there, but they usually come back once they make the bigs. It might even just be normal fluctuation and not anything related to sitting in Triple-A.

[endgame]

Originally Posted by Qwerty75

In previous versions, prospects took a hit to their potential ratings if they remained at a level too high or too low for their current ratings for an extended period of time. Does this still happen? If so, does anyone have an idea how long at the wrong level it takes for the hit to take place?

A rule of thumb that I have used in the past is to move a prospect up to the next level if the Minor League Report has stated that he is "Ready" to be promoted for two weeks. Longer than that, I feel that I'm exposing him to the risk of a talent hit (a player may last quite a bit longer at the "wrong" level, but in v8/2007 I found that hits happened as quickly as two weeks). I'm not sure if this is still a good idea in the current version.

Related questions: Does good performance in the minors still result in faster development? Does poor performance lead to a talent hit?

Coaching on or off?

[Qwerty75]

Originally Posted by endgame

Coaching on or off?

On.

My Major League coaches are very good (blue ratings except for a middling bench coach). My minor league coaches are generally in the yellow range, except for a hitting coach and a pitching coach that I use somewhat like roving instructors to work at the minor league level where my best prospects are. The CF prospect would have the benefit of the roving hitting coach (16/20 in coaching hitting) if he were to stay in AAA next year.

How do you see the coaching system making a difference?

[Qwerty75]

Originally Posted by Kelric

A point or two here or there, but they usually come back once they make the bigs. It might even just be normal fluctuation and not anything related to sitting in Triple-A.

What ratings scale do you use? There's quite a bit of difference between a point scaled out of 100 and a point scaled out of 10.