Clarification on pitchers holding runners

[silentrob]

Can someone more veteran than I clarify exactly what a pitchers "hold runners" rating does? Does it

A) Mean runners steal less often
B) Mean runners steal less successfully
C) Both A & B

Common sense says the answer is C, but the manual just states "It is harder for runners on base to steal against pitchers who have high Hold Runners ratings." which doesn't exactly says if its harder to get the jump or harder to make it. Thanks in advance!

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by silentrob

Can someone more veteran than I clarify exactly what a pitchers "hold runners" rating does? Does it

A) Mean runners steal less often
B) Mean runners steal less successfully
C) Both A & B

Common sense says the answer is C, but the manual just states "It is harder for runners on base to steal against pitchers who have high Hold Runners ratings." which doesn't exactly says if its harder to get the jump or harder to make it. Thanks in advance!

Harder to get a jump. It may also help with pick-off success, though I don't know if anyone has ever established that. Success on a SB attempt is geared to catcher arm.

[Cryomaniac]

Also (although this is fixed in OOTP 11) a non-zero hold runners rating is what makes pitchers not develop as hitters apparently.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Harder to get a jump. It may also help with pick-off success, though I don't know if anyone has ever established that. Success on a SB attempt is geared to catcher arm.

I thought that pitchers hold rating was a bigger contributor to SB success than catcher arm.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by RchW

I thought that pitchers hold rating was a bigger contributor to SB success than catcher arm.

Once a baserunner commits to the steal attempt, the pitcher's hold rating no longer matters -- he's no longer holding the runner. At that point, it's up to the catcher to get him or not. The pitcher may keep a top base stealer from making the attempt, which could be characterized as affecting "success" but there is no way to measure that. The pitchers keeps him from making the attempt, the catcher throws him out if he makes the attempt.

[knockahoma]

Once a baserunner commits to the steal attempt, the pitcher's hold rating no longer matters -- he's no longer holding the runner. At that point, it's up to the catcher to get him or not.

I'm assuming this approach is a result of programming? Anyone who has ever pitched, caught, or tried to steal a base knows that the pitcher's "hold" ability goes far beyond just keeping a base-runner from attempting a steal.

The pitcher affects the base-stealer's "jump", which in turn affects the catcher's ability to throw the runner out. Sometimes, runners get a good jump on a pitcher, even if that pitcher has a good move to 1B.

But, often, when you steal a base on such a pitcher, your lead may be shortened and your jump slightly more hesitant, which gives the catcher that much more advantage.

I think Strat-o-matic takes that into account like this:

Scale of 1-20.

Stealer 1-17 safe, 18-20 out.

Pitcher hold (-2) makes it 1-15

Catcher's arm (+1) bumps it back up to 1-16

So, calculated, the runner's safe if the draw card is between 1-16, out between 17-20.

But, still a great game. Having a ball with my 8 team league in God-mode.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by knockahoma

I'm assuming this approach is a result of programming? Anyone who has ever pitched, caught, or tried to steal a base knows that the pitcher's "hold" ability goes far beyond just keeping a base-runner from attempting a steal.

Well ... I think it is possible that OOTP does this to some extent. It has already been determined that very highly rated catchers will inhibit steal attempts. So, it's possible that pitchers with very high hold ratings cause more failed SB attempts. AFAIK, no one has tested for that.

With that caveat, I think what the game does is look at the number and frequency of SBAs while a pitcher is on the mound, and assigns him a Hold rating based on that. The game then looks at SBA success numbers and frequency while a catcher is behind the plate, and assigns him an arm rating. I agree this doesn't mirror exactly what goes on IRL. A very good catcher can make a pitcher look better, and vice versa. But it is defensible as having a concrete tie to RL stats rather than being some sort of guess as to which player in the battery is contributing how much to the result.

[silentrob]

Thank you, my friends, for this good discussion. IRL, the whole jump/hold/catcher's arm situation is very complex, and I can understand why the programming might be hesitant to try and model that, and go with the basic pitcher holds, catcher throws model for base stealing. I'll operate under the assumption that this is how it works, for the most part.

Cheers!

[Syd Thrift]

If this is the case, it needs to be changed with OOTP. Pitchers have far, far larger differences in stolen base prevention, both in terms of attempts allowed and runners caught, than the vast majority of catchers. It's already a bit of a broken aspect of the game that runners seem to be a little too smart in determining when to steal and when not to steal and as a result the best catchers seem to throw out the same percentage of guys as average ones do. A lot fewer guys run on them, but if you look IRL you see guys like Ivan Rodriguez consistently throwing out 45% or more of opposing baserunners, year after year. You'd think teams would wise up but really they don't, in part because runners choose when to steal based on the pitcher not so much the catcher but also because there just isn't a lot of time to think.

But back to pitchers... there are a group of guys - finesse-based lefties - who as a group tend to have killer pick-off moves and who as a result don't allow a lot of steals and then don't allow guys to have good breaks so they get a lot of caught stealings as well. Dave Fleming was the first name that came to mind due to my Mariner fandom but there are many, many others. The difference can't all be explained away by 1-3-6 CSes.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

If this is the case, it needs to be changed with OOTP. Pitchers have far, far larger differences in stolen base prevention, both in terms of attempts allowed and runners caught, than the vast majority of catchers.

It's murky territory to me. Again, AFAIK no one has actually tested whether Hold ratings have any influence on CS rates in OOTP. I just presume that, if they do, it's only for the very high Hold ratings. But I could be wrong.

Someone would have to do a serious study of stats to see how much a pitcher improved a catcher's CS stats, or how much a catcher improved a pitcher's ability to prevent SBAs. But then, you'd have to come up with adjustments to how the Hold rating and Arm rating are calculated, as well as adjusting how the game engine took each of them into account in an SBA/CS situation.

Any sim game has to make decisions about abstracting or simplifying some facets of what is being simmed, just to be functional. I think Markus has just chosen to simplify things a little by giving catchers the credit for CS rates, and pitchers the credit for SBA frequency, because doing anything more sophisticated than that would be a lot of work.