Player Creation - The Defensive Spectrum

[Syd Thrift]

Much kvetching has been made about how many middle relievers the game creates. IRL few players are drafted and projected out as middle relievers. The game has grown leaps and bounds in this regard. A related issue, I think, is with hitters. How is this related? Well, in high school and even college a relatively small number of pro-quality players actually play first base and left field for their amateur teams. Even if they project further along the defensive spectrum, they're generally the best athletes on their teams and as such don't get stuck in places where you historically hide guys who don't field so well.

Here's a look at the guys who started at 1B last year in the AL and where they started playing in the minor leagues (minimum 400 innings):

Miguel Cabrera, DET - started in LF and 3B in the majors, SS in the minors
Mark Texeira, NYY - 1B/OF/3B majors, 3B minors
Kendry Morales, LAA - 1B majors, 1B/OF minors
Billy Butler, KC - 1B/OF majors, 3B minors
Carlos Pena, TB - 1B majors, 1B minors
Paul Konerko, CHW - 1B/3B/LF majors, C minors
Justin Morneau, MIN - 1B majors, 1B minors
Lyle Overbay, TOR - 1B majors, 1B minors
Russell Branyan, SEA - 3B/OF majors, 3B minors
Aubrey Huff, BAL/DET - 3B majors, 3B minors
Chris Davis, TEX - 1B/3B majors, OF/1B minors (switched to 3rd in his 2nd season)
Kevin Youkilis, BOS - 3B majors, 3B minors
Victor Martinez, CLE - C majors, C minors
Hank Blalock, TEX - 3B majors, 3B minors
Jason Giambi, OAK - 3B/1B majors, 3B minors
Daric Barton, OAK - 1B majors, C/3B minors
Ryan Garko, CLE - 1B majors, C minors

Even with half of major league baseball, there's a clear trend. Very few major league first basemen get their start even in the majors at first, and even then, those who do generally were tried somewhere else and only moved to first due to injury (in the case of Garko), a simple inability to play elsewhere (Giambi, I think Daric Barton), or their team having a better option at their regular position (Youkilis, Cabrera, Texeira). It's also, of course, a position you stick veterans into (Branyan, Konerko) when they can still hit a bit.

The game, however, creates, it seems, just as many 1B at start-up and during the draft and so on as any other position. The game actually does do a pretty good job of not allowing leftward spectrum movement (i.e. 1Bmen rarely become effective 3Bs) so the end result is that you invariably end up with a bunch of younger guys on this end who are pretty much useless except when it comes to filling a roster spot in the minors or being used as pinch hitters. This is exacerbated in leagues without the DH, as there's not an extra spot for these sorts of players to go (IRL a lot of the more agile 1B would have come out as 3B or corner OFers and would be given longer looks at those positions before being relegated to 1st).

Hope someone looks at this. It's one of those little things that can add up to a big lack of verisimilitude in the actual game.

[robc]

That is a good observation. I would have never thought of it (but I don't follow baseball anymore ). Hopefully the powers that be will consider your findings.

Even my favorite, Don Mattingly played the OF!

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by robc

Even my favorite, Dom Mattingly played the OF!

He also has 1 game played at 2nd, although it was the end of the Pine Tar game, so yeah lol

[ptwarr18]

Originally Posted by Cryomaniac

He also has 1 game played at 2nd, although it was the end of the Pine Tar game, so yeah lol

He played a few games at third base as well against the M's in 86

[knockahoma]

Hey, Sid.

That's a great point regarding minor league players and their devolution down the defensive spectrum the higher they advance.

Half my college team played some shortstop as high schoolers.

I'd be interested in seeing the draft breakdown on positions drafted. I'll have a google and see what I can find on that.

I'd love to see OOTP mirror this reality of players slip-slidin' away down the defensive spectrum as they advance. For one thing, it would make the minors a very interesting place as you shuffle prospects.

[TGH-Adfabre]

those who do generally were tried somewhere else and only moved to first due to injury

Pujols.

[knockahoma]

Bill James:

BJ: We have five shortstops in the minor leagues who are going to be major league players. I'm not kidding you. We have Hanley (Ramirez), who everyone knows about. There's a guy who's going to be at Triple-A next year, Kenny Perez. He's probably not going to be a major league star, but he is going to be a major league player. The guy we drafted last year named Dustin Pedroia. He's very good. Guys in the lower levels, Christian Lara and a guy named (Luis) Soto. And they are all good. The reason why you do that is they are all good, but they are probably not all shortstops. One of them will be a good second baseman, one may be a third baseman or a leftfielder or something, but you start them out at shortstop.

RL: It gives you a lot more flexibility.

BJ: Right.

RL: If you start out at first base or DH, there's nowhere to go.

BJ: Exactly.

[knockahoma]

Out of curiousity, I researched the 2008 starting 1B in the NL. A couple of these guys were moved to 1B due to age and injury. Still, it's interesting.

OOTP seems to work hard at making the numbers add up to real life. Maybe someone could do a study on this issue. Anyway:

These guys were 1B from the get-go in the minors:

Helton,
Loney
Fielder
Howard
Laroche
Gonzalez


These guys began their minor league careers elsewhere, or split time at 1B as noted:

Tracy 3b
Teixeira 3b
Lee 3b-1b
Votto OF-C-3B
Jacobs C
Berkman OF
Delgado OF-C
Bowker OF
Pujoltz 3B
Boone 3B

[fhomess]

I think there's an inherent problem here in that OOTP doesn't model the skills of baseball so much as it models the results. The change to the pitching model, where pitchers are modeled with individual pitches that make up their skill and endurance was the first shift in the other direction. The reason players in real life typically start out at more difficult defensive positions and move to easier ones is that they are superior to their peers in terms of quickness, agility, hand eye coordination, and reaction time. As they move to higher levels of play, their peers become much better at all of these, so the guys who are still very good in these areas but not as good as the best move to easier defensive positions. In addition, as players age, they grow into their adult body. Some lanky high schoolers become big hulking men, while others remain lean. Much of that is genetics while some of that is based on how the player trains. The lean guys retain the quickness and agility to play a position like shortstop much better than the guys who bulk up. OOTP doesn't model any of this.

I do think it'd be possible for OOTP to model this, but it would need to have a much wider range of defensive ratings and a better sense of what positions a player could move to. Not all low level shortstops who eventually make the majors end up at the same defensive position. Some become first basemen because they get much bigger, while others become outfielders because they have the range for it.

[robc]

This would be a good topic for Markus to add his 2 cents worth on. Is it an area that OOTP could move closer to reality on?

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by fhomess

I think there's an inherent problem here in that OOTP doesn't model the skills of baseball so much as it models the results. The change to the pitching model, where pitchers are modeled with individual pitches that make up their skill and endurance was the first shift in the other direction. The reason players in real life typically start out at more difficult defensive positions and move to easier ones is that they are superior to their peers in terms of quickness, agility, hand eye coordination, and reaction time. As they move to higher levels of play, their peers become much better at all of these, so the guys who are still very good in these areas but not as good as the best move to easier defensive positions. In addition, as players age, they grow into their adult body. Some lanky high schoolers become big hulking men, while others remain lean. Much of that is genetics while some of that is based on how the player trains. The lean guys retain the quickness and agility to play a position like shortstop much better than the guys who bulk up. OOTP doesn't model any of this.

I do think it'd be possible for OOTP to model this, but it would need to have a much wider range of defensive ratings and a better sense of what positions a player could move to. Not all low level shortstops who eventually make the majors end up at the same defensive position. Some become first basemen because they get much bigger, while others become outfielders because they have the range for it.

I disagree to a point. I think you can get quite a bit closer to reality just by having the game generate fewer 1B and corner OFs at draft time and more SSs, Cs, and 3Bs. In that situation, the guys who aren't able to cut it with their glove but who can still hit well enough to allow a defensive shift will move down while those who can't will sit in the minors or get cut.

The filling out bit is a good point and you're right, I don't think you can adjust for that exactly beyond just having players not develop at left-ward positions as much as you'd expect all the time. I don't know that that's a good argument for just ignoring this concept, though.

[ptwarr18]

Currently we an exact fielding ratings (range, errors, arms, doubleplays) and have the rating at each position develop based on experience...

Wonder how things would change if instead of having fixed ratings at things like Range, Errors, Arms and DPs - we had potential and current. Then generate fielding ratings based on experience and their current ratings. I think this would accomplish a more realistic result if done the right way. You could draft someone with the potential to be a shortstop, but over time, they don't develop as anticipated and make the shift to maybe another IF position.

[fhomess]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I disagree to a point. I think you can get quite a bit closer to reality just by having the game generate fewer 1B and corner OFs at draft time and more SSs, Cs, and 3Bs. In that situation, the guys who aren't able to cut it with their glove but who can still hit well enough to allow a defensive shift will move down while those who can't will sit in the minors or get cut.

Hence my point about a wider range of defensive ratings. Currently, once a player has a rating, that rating reflects his ability on the spectrum of major league talent. If you generate a much higher percentage of guys at the skilled defensive positions with the idea that a good portion of them ought to develop into players who can only handle the less skilled defensive positions, you have to both give them a rating at that position and make that rating either start low enough or regress low enough that it's no longer viable to play that player there in the majors at all. From what I've seen, a very low defensive rating at SS is bad, but it's not Prince Fielder at SS bad.

I don't think that I suggested anywhere that this concept should be ignored. My point was more intended to suggest that I think the defensive rating system would need to be overhauled to model what you're talking about. Kind of like how the pitching model was overhauled to get more realistic SP/RP differentiation.