Too many CS, anyone have good settings for this?

Recte44 · 03-16-2010, 01:54 PM

Looking for good league settings numbers that have resulted in a 60-70% success rate in your league, or some insight on why I have so many CS in my league.

My setting for Stolen Base Success % is currently at .969, this has got to be wrong. I'm guessing it probably needs to be somewhere above 1.000.

Any input would be appreciated.

Waninski · 03-16-2010, 03:04 PM

My SB success rate is currently at 1.132, which, as far as I know, is the setting my '09 MLB league was at when it first began. I haven't tweaked this any, and everything seems to be performing satisfactorily.

DCG12 · 03-16-2010, 03:08 PM

My first question would be are you playing a modern environment? If you are playing historical it might be different. I have a couple fictional leagues that play with the default settings i.e. 1.00 and get about a 73% success rate. I would suggest that if you are looking for that type of modern percentage that you up it to 1.00.

The other alternative is to determine how much too low (in pct) you think you are and increase the modifier by that amount.

Recte44 · 03-16-2010, 03:22 PM

Gotcha. I've never quite understood the modifiers, somehow they get backwards in my head.

IT's a historical league but I've turned off historical settings. MId 70's at this point.

It's around 55% right now.

SteveP · 03-16-2010, 05:22 PM

Your OP didn't make it clear what CS rates you were getting and how those rates compare to historical actuals. In all the historical leagues I've done, the CS rates come out pretty close to historical, when you look at league totals, or by looking at individual catchers (plus or minus the usual).

However, if you aren't concerned about getting the historical rate, but want a higher SB success rate, then the advice you've gotten here is sound -- just adjust the SB success rate LTM by the percentage change you want (i.e., if you want the SB success rate to go from 60% to 65%, that requires roughly an 8% increase in the LTM).

Curtis · 03-28-2010, 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Recte44

Gotcha. I've never quite understood the modifiers, somehow they get backwards in my head.

What's backwards are the league totals. League modifiers work intuitively (increase the modifier to increase the stolen bases). League totals work counterintuitively (decrease the totals to increase the stolen bases).

In your case I'd advise a change in the league modifier to around 1.21. That's just under a 25% increase over your current .969, and a 25% increase on 55% is just under 69%, which is the long term average for the modern era.

03-16-2010, 01:54 PM	#1 (permalink)
Recte44 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Oconomowoc, WI Posts: 1,956 Thanks: 40 Thanked 37x in 14 posts	Too many CS, anyone have good settings for this? Looking for good league settings numbers that have resulted in a 60-70% success rate in your league, or some insight on why I have so many CS in my league. My setting for Stolen Base Success % is currently at .969, this has got to be wrong. I'm guessing it probably needs to be somewhere above 1.000. Any input would be appreciated. __________________ Matt Rectenwald Commissioner, GM: Las Vegas Hustlers, Monty Brewster World Baseball Association (MBWBA) http://twitter.com/recte44 http://twitter.com/Monty_Brewster http://twitter.com/mbba_hustlers

03-16-2010, 03:04 PM	#2 (permalink)
Waninski All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 582 Thanks: 16 Thanked 6x in 4 posts	My SB success rate is currently at 1.132, which, as far as I know, is the setting my '09 MLB league was at when it first began. I haven't tweaked this any, and everything seems to be performing satisfactorily. __________________ "Pitching, Defense, and the Three-Run Homer."

03-16-2010, 03:22 PM	#4 (permalink)
Recte44 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Oconomowoc, WI Posts: 1,956 Thanks: 40 Thanked 37x in 14 posts	Gotcha. I've never quite understood the modifiers, somehow they get backwards in my head. IT's a historical league but I've turned off historical settings. MId 70's at this point. It's around 55% right now. __________________ Matt Rectenwald Commissioner, GM: Las Vegas Hustlers, Monty Brewster World Baseball Association (MBWBA) http://twitter.com/recte44 http://twitter.com/Monty_Brewster http://twitter.com/mbba_hustlers

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03-16-2010, 03:08 PM	#3 (permalink)
DCG12 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Traveling through another dimension-not one of only sight and sound,but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundries are those of imagination. Posts: 610 Thanks: 8 Thanked 176x in 88 posts	My first question would be are you playing a modern environment? If you are playing historical it might be different. I have a couple fictional leagues that play with the default settings i.e. 1.00 and get about a 73% success rate. I would suggest that if you are looking for that type of modern percentage that you up it to 1.00. The other alternative is to determine how much too low (in pct) you think you are and increase the modifier by that amount.

03-16-2010, 05:22 PM	#5 (permalink)
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,776 Thanks: 6 Thanked 261x in 198 posts	Your OP didn't make it clear what CS rates you were getting and how those rates compare to historical actuals. In all the historical leagues I've done, the CS rates come out pretty close to historical, when you look at league totals, or by looking at individual catchers (plus or minus the usual). However, if you aren't concerned about getting the historical rate, but want a higher SB success rate, then the advice you've gotten here is sound -- just adjust the SB success rate LTM by the percentage change you want (i.e., if you want the SB success rate to go from 60% to 65%, that requires roughly an 8% increase in the LTM).