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Old 03-25-2010, 10:37 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Question about fibonacci wins

I've got a player in my league that ended his career with a 266-194 record...resulting in a fibonacci win point score of 226. I generally see my top pitchers end up with scores higher than their actual win total, so what does this tell me about this pitcher? Are his 266 wins just a result of his logetivity and grinding it out? Or just bad luck?? His career ERA was a very respectable 3.04, which is on par with that of other pitchers I've elected into my HOF. Just not sure about his FIB score and wondering what it means about the rest of his numbers?
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:48 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Fibonacci wins are explained in Bill James' book The Politics of Glory. Basically, they're a function of nothing but wins and winning percentage.

wins X win% + games over .500

So for a guy who went 266-194, I get a winning percentage of .578. 266 times .578 is 153.8 wins. Add to that the difference between 266 and 194, which is 72, and you get 225.8 victories. It's an interesting little game. Some may not like it because it looks at nothing but wins and losses but for guys with careers that long wins and losses are a better indicator of value than ERA (which can get affected by era and park to a pretty large degree).
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