Which player for which position?

[Loeffle]

For the next season I have some very promising talents, but I'm not sure who is best fitted for which infield position:
(Infield Range, Infield Error, Infield Arm, Turn Double Play)
Schoop (70/96/78/85) -> SS/3rd base in minors
Lee (89/80/64/30) -> 3rd base in minors
Harrington (79/56/52/52) -> SS in big leagues

These three guys will hit 1st, 2nd and 4th in my lineup. 3rd base is more or less occupied at the moment, but that guy could move to first.

Any ideas?

[milkman41]

I would go with Schoop at SS, Lee at 3rd, and Harrington at 2nd, if he can do that.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Loeffle

For the next season I have some very promising talents, but I'm not sure who is best fitted for which infield position:
(Infield Range, Infield Error, Infield Arm, Turn Double Play)
Schoop (70/96/78/85) -> SS/3rd base in minors
Lee (89/80/64/30) -> 3rd base in minors
Harrington (79/56/52/52) -> SS in big leagues

These three guys will hit 1st, 2nd and 4th in my lineup. 3rd base is more or less occupied at the moment, but that guy could move to first.

Any ideas?

Based on IF ratings Schoop should be your SS. I find that arm and error ratings "seem" to make a bigger difference in defensive stats. SS being a critical spot the best fielder should play there unless you have a monster hitter.

Can Harrington play 2B? If so he would be just OK. His relatively weak arm might be a liability at SS and 3B. Without a look at their offensive stats/ratings it's hard to be definitive. Since you have Harrington slated for 4th maybe you give up some defense at SS. Based on this I'd have Harrington at 2B, Schoop at SS and Lee at 3B or the backup IF since 3B is taken. YMMV

[Qwerty75]

Schoop at 2nd, Lee at 3rd, Harrington at SS is how I would set them up. 2B gets the most chances, so Schoops high IF Error fits well there to go along with the high Turn DP. Lee's lack of Turn DP regelates him to 3B. Harrington has the higher Range between him and Schoop, and the lower IF Error will hurt less at SS than 2B, as well as the lower Turn DP. The lower arm shouldn't kill him, not enough to compensate for the difference in Range IMHO.

[Loeffle]

Thank you all!

Well Harrington is my monster hitter and he will most likely win the ROY.
At the end of august he is batting .270 with 23 HR and 93 RBI's. He played SS all year long but is ranking in the lower third of SS defensive wise.
.974 fielding percentage, 3.69 RF and 42 DP.

Schoop played more or less 2B and 3B, but was also often injured. He is batting .322 with 24 doubles, 4 HR, 28 RBI, but lacking speed to bat leadoff.

Lee should become my leadoff man next season after he batted well over .300 (OBP .403) in Japan. He has great speed and no power.

Guess I move Davis (.265, 16 HR, 65 RBI) over to first base. Kendry Morales my current 1B is not very spectacular (.252, 12 HR, 40 RBI) and BJ Upton was just sent to AAA and won't be around next season.

I have Tripper Johnson as utility IF with nice numbers (.311, 3 HR, 15 RBI) in limited playing time.

So IF should be 1B Davis 3B Lee 2B/SS Schoop/Harrington

The outfield is ever more difficult as all current starters do well, but their is much talent at AAA

[Jaxxvain]

Originally Posted by Qwerty75

Schoop at 2nd, Lee at 3rd, Harrington at SS is how I would set them up. 2B gets the most chances, so Schoops high IF Error fits well there to go along with the high Turn DP. Lee's lack of Turn DP regelates him to 3B. Harrington has the higher Range between him and Schoop, and the lower IF Error will hurt less at SS than 2B, as well as the lower Turn DP. The lower arm shouldn't kill him, not enough to compensate for the difference in Range IMHO.

I thought SS gets more chances?

[Qwerty75]

Originally Posted by Jaxxvain

I thought SS gets more chances?

Check Range Factor or Total Chances between shortstops and 2Bmen. 2B gets significantly more chances than SS.

[damientheomen3]

Originally Posted by Qwerty75

Check Range Factor or Total Chances between shortstops and 2Bmen. 2B gets significantly more chances than SS.

Well, in my league, the SS with the most total chances had more total chances than the 2B with the most total chances. Also, only 3 2B had over 600 total chances, while 5 SSs had over 600 TCs.

[Qwerty75]

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

Well, in my league, the SS with the most total chances had more total chances than the 2B with the most total chances. Also, only 3 2B had over 600 total chances, while 5 SSs had over 600 TCs.

I should be more clear. Concentrate on Range Factor, since it averages by the innings played. And look across a range of values rather than the single highest.

Maybe I'm wrong for OotP; I don't look at Range Factor for player evaluation at all. If OotP mimicks real life closely, however, 2B will have more chances. Back a few years ago when I paid attention to RF on ESPN, 2B would average around 4.6-7 while SSs were around 4.2-3.

[knockahoma]

Hey Q,

If OotP mimicks real life closely, however, 2B will have more chances. Back a few years ago when I paid attention to RF on ESPN, 2B would average around 4.6-7 while SSs were around 4.2-3.

I was surprised by that. I'm a guy who played shortstop, and occasionally 2b, thru high school, college and about a gazillion years in softball. I've only started getting into the saber stuff the past few years, so I may be way off base. But, the range factor appears to be misleading.

2B gets more "chances", but they are "put-out" chances. Sort of like 1B has a range factor up around 10. Off-hand, I'm thinking of a few areas where a 2b gets more putouts than a shortstop. Steal attempts. Throws from the outfield (as the shortstop goes out more often on cut-offs), and double-play flips from the shortstop to the 2B outweigh the reverse (so, the shortstop gets 1 assist, or chance, on the double-play while the 2B gets a putout and an assist, or two chances, on the double play).


You may already have taken all that into account. As I said, I'm fairly new at the saber stuff. That being said, I agree with you. Shoop would be a much better 2B. Heck. If he's at SS, even though he makes few errors, everyone will call him a terrible shortstop because he shows up low on the range factor, as Yankee fans can testify

(Infield Range, Infield Error, Infield Arm, Turn Double Play)
Schoop (70/96/78/85) -> SS/3rd base in minors
Lee (89/80/64/30) -> 3rd base in minors
Harrington (79/56/52/52) -> SS in big leagues

In real life, I think a shortstop like Harrington might be moved to the outfield, or 1B (probably back in the minors when they got a load of his arm). Shortstop is the toughest spot on the field defensively. Not long ago, I read that offensive "output" for the league ran exactly opposite the defensive spectrum, meaning shortstop would require the least offensive contribution and 1B the most.

My solution would be to trade one of the extra bats for a strong defensive shortstop. If I were stuck with the three, it would be Schoop at 2B, Lee at 3B, Harrington at SS until his 30 errors forces me to trade one of the extra bats for a strong defensive shortstop :P

Seriously, it's a tough call. Schoop at 2nd base means two of three positions are strong, but your most important defensive position is really weak. Schoop at SS means only 3B is really solid defensively.

Harrington, by the scouts anyway, isn't a shortstop. All he has is range. A mongoose has a quick first step too, but rarely does one play at shortstop because their hands suck and they have really tiny throwing arms.

[knockahoma]

Hey L,

Fun discussion.

I play in God-mode and I see shortstops with low range and error ratings in the top third of those categories all the time. Since, in the end, it's about performance, can you give me a bit more evidence? You said Harrington had a .974 field percentage. Where did he rank specifically on errors and then, specifically, on range factor?

[Qwerty75]

Knocka,

Thanks for the comments. I think you may have a point ... the 2Bmen's extra chances could be coming from PO on force plays at the keystone. When I'll have some time, I'll look through BBRef and see if historically SS have more Assists than 2Bmen.

On the other hand, if there is as great a likelihood of an error (in OotP) on a PO as an Assist, it still makes sense to have the guy with a better IF Error rating at 2B, because he will still handle more balls whether its on the starting or middle/receiving end of the play. For example, I've seen plays where the 2B drops the throw to force the runner at 2nd ... a 2B with a good Error rating would minimize those instances.

[Loeffle]

Originally Posted by knockahoma

Hey L,

Fun discussion.

I play in God-mode and I see shortstops with low range and error ratings in the top third of those categories all the time. Since, in the end, it's about performance, can you give me a bit more evidence? You said Harrington had a .974 field percentage. Where did he rank specifically on errors and then, specifically, on range factor?

Hi!

You guys really know the game. I'm from Europe and never ever saw a MLB game live. Only on MLB radio etc

On Harrington:
He has a .972 fielding percentage (league leader .988) -> 12th
Total chances 392 (ll 515) -> 8th
Errors 11 (ll 24) -> 8th
Double Plays 42 (ll 67) -> 8th
Innings playes 941 (ll 1104) -> 6th
Range factor 3.64 (ll 4.18) -> 14th
It's a 18 team league (original NL with three rounds of expansion, no DH)

I took Harrington in the expansion draft prior to this season. He never played a MLB before, but in the minor leagues he played 96 games at 2B, 295 games at SS and 3 games at 3B.

The scout rates him 35 at 2B, 16 at 3B, 58 at SS

Schoop got mostly starts at 2B (33 games) and 3B (29 games) this season. He is rated 21 at 2B, 81 at 3B and 74 at SS.

Lee played exclusively 3B in Japan and has only a rating there.

My overall team fielding is at .976 (league average .979) and RNG at 4.08 (league average 3.99)

That's it for now. Ask pls if you need more info.

[knockahoma]

Hey Q

Knocka,

Thanks for the comments. I think you may have a point ... the 2Bmen's extra chances could be coming from PO on force plays at the keystone. When I'll have some time, I'll look through BBRef and see if historically SS have more Assists than 2Bmen.

On the other hand, if there is as great a likelihood of an error (in OotP) on a PO as an Assist, it still makes sense to have the guy with a better IF Error rating at 2B... because he will still handle more balls whether its on the starting or middle/receiving end of the play. For example, I've seen plays where the 2B drops the throw to force the runner at 2nd ... a 2B with a good Error rating would minimize those instances

Yeah, seems that way if OOTP operates in that manner. I'm guessing in real life that a 2B dropping a put out at the bag happens max a couple of times a season, if that. Hopefully, OOTP sees the shades of difficulty between a grounder and catching a throw from shortstop.

I ran across an interesting article on infield defense. Thought I'd post some thoughts on the author's musings. I don't know if he's played infield himself, but he made me stop and think about some things. Literally, I've played 1.3 gazillion games at SS over 30 something years, so, for what it's worth...

I'll get to that a bit later.

[knockahoma]

I'm just musing. Feel free to flame me for any saber-ignorance


Infield Defense — Back to Basics

The author begin his work on infield defense with a quote:

Simplicity, simplicity, simplicity! I say, let your affairs be as two or three, and not a hundred or a thousand; instead of a million count half a dozen, and keep your accounts on your thumb-nail.
— Henry David Thoreau

In recent years, methods for evaluating defense have been springing up like mushrooms after a spring rain. We've got UZR and PMR and the plus/minus system, all based on play-by-play data. Then there are the zone rating-based systems, one from Chris Dial, another by Sean Smith and more stuff from folks working with the BIS zone rating data that we publish here at THT. And let's not forget those heroic attempts to evaluate fielding using traditional stats: Win Shares and FRAA... So, I've decided to go back to basics, and I'm starting with infield defense.

I like the guy's thinking. I was thinking the same thing when I imagined an infield practice consisting of only grounders to examine range. I think a lot of these putouts obfuscate the question which is: How good is this guy's range? The author shows a grounder chart and continues:

I also didn't realize how few balls were actually hit up the middle. As you can see from the RHB and LHB curves, batters overwhelmingly tend to pull ground balls, which I knew. What I didn't know is that a right-handed batter will hit more balls at the second baseman then he will up the middle (see the peak in the red curve near 60). Same thing for a lefty hitting balls towards short.

I think that's true because a ball back up the middle is a perfectly timed swing. It may not be a powerful swing, or a good connect, but the timing is just right, sending the ball right back thru the pitcher's mound, which is exactly what a lot of hitting coaches preach to players in slumps. Hitting up the middle tends to work the kinks out of your swing and get the mechanics back into alignment.

On the other hand, there's very little overlap between the areas covered by the shortstop and second baseman. That's not surprising to me, but apparently some smart people are not aware of the fact. I came across the following in this year's Baseball Prospectus Annual, in a comment on the defense of Indians shortstop Jhonny Peralta:

...it's worth noting that Peralta didn't have the benefit of great support to his right and left; Boone lost almost as much ground in the field as he did at the plate (according to both scouts and metrics), while Ronnie Belliard's range at second left a lot to be desired. [emphasis added]

Agreed. I never shaded toward second base because of that guy's lack of range. I shaded that way because of the hitter and pitcher, or because we were trolling for a double play. After all, I've still got a deep hole to cover on the other side. I might shade to protect a bad thirdbaseman on a serious pull hitter. Usually, that had more to do with the hitter's perceived zone than our 3B.

To start off, focus on the blue curve in the upper plot. This is the mlb average fraction of balls turned into outs as a function of where the ball was hit. The dips in the blue curve show show the "holes" where most hits get through. It's also clear that balls hit towards the shortstop or the second baseman are easier to field than balls hit at the third or first baseman, i.e. the two peaks in the middle are higher than the two lateral peaks. It is called the Hot Corner, after all. First baseman field the fewest balls of all, 1) because fewer are hit their way and 2) because they often play out of position in order to hold a runner on first base.

There's that and there's something else if I'm understanding correctly. Talent. The shortstop and second basemen usually have better range and ability than 3b and 1b.

Shortstops field only 6% more balls than second baseman do, which doesn't seem like much, when you consider that shortstops are generally viewed as much more important than second baseman.

There's also the degree of difficulty. A 2B ranging to his right and a SS ranging to his right are two plays of different difficulties. After all, the hitter has the same speed on a hit to 2b as one to SS.

Also, let's think about 6% this way. What if our shortstop suddenly got to 6% less grounders? Six percent is a lot from that perspective, especially if we're talking about 100,000 grounders,

Then I just counted up the number of ground balls hit into each slice. Simple, right? Thoreau would be proud. The plot below shows the results for the roughly 100,000 ground balls hit during the 2005-2006 seasons

The Author discussed the Orioles middle defense, writing;

Both Miguel Tejada and Brian Roberts, who played the majority of the Orioles games at SS and 2B, seemed to play too far towards the hole, leaving the middle infield virtually uncovered. The O's corner infielders, Mora and (mostly) Millar, were pretty terrible also.

I haven't followed baseball closely for about 7 years, but my guess is not that Tejada and Roberts "play to far towards the hole, leaving the middle infield virtually uncovered." The Orioles have hit charts like everyone else, I'm sure. Their failure to cover the middle would appear to be lack of range. If they actually do suffer from poor range, then what would you do? You would play the "holes" versus the "middle". Even the author's research shows hits up the middle are the lesser occurence. You can't have the best of both worlds unless you're a Mark Belanger.

I also read an infield article which suggested that opposite field grounders were tougher to field, or get to. I thought about that and it makes sense to me. You see fewer of them. It's like a lefty hitter seeing one lefty pitcher for every 8 righties. It's a matter of practiced recognition which fuels "instinct". I wouldn't be surprised at all if almost every shortstop has the very slightest better jump on grounders from righties versus grounders from left-handed hitters. And there's also the slightest bit of surprise that happens when seeing grounders from lefties. It may only cause a nano-nano second of delay, but that may be enough on a grounder going 75 mph into the hole.

[knockahoma]

On Harrington:
He has a .972 fielding percentage (league leader .988) -> 12th
Total chances 392 (ll 515) -> 8th
Errors 11 (ll 24) -> 8th
Double Plays 42 (ll 67) -> 8th
Innings playes 941 (ll 1104) -> 6th
Range factor 3.64 (ll 4.18) -> 14th
It's a 18 team league (original NL with three rounds of expansion, no DH)

I took Harrington in the expansion draft prior to this season. He never played a MLB before, but in the minor leagues he played 96 games at 2B, 295 games at SS and 3 games at 3B.

The scout rates him 35 at 2B, 16 at 3B, 58 at SS

Schoop got mostly starts at 2B (33 games) and 3B (29 games) this season. He is rated 21 at 2B, 81 at 3B and 74 at SS.

Lee played exclusively 3B in Japan and has only a rating there.

My overall team fielding is at .976 (league average .979) and RNG at 4.08 (league average 3.99)

Just out of curiosity, where does Schoop's 74 range rating stand with starting shortstops in the league. Would that be 5th best, 10th best, etc? No matter what, Harrington seems the odd man out if it were my team. He seems to be a weak middle infielder and he can't play 3b. Your 1B is mediocre. Seems Harrington-- a SS-- could be converted to 1B easily and hit like a 1B too. You were talking about moving your 3B over to 1B, but he seems to be a mediocre hitting 1st sacker too (.260ish,15HR).

I think I'd move Harrington to 1b and trade one of your other infielders for a really good fielding SS.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Qwerty75

Schoop at 2nd, Lee at 3rd, Harrington at SS is how I would set them up. 2B gets the most chances, so Schoops high IF Error fits well there to go along with the high Turn DP. Lee's lack of Turn DP regelates him to 3B. Harrington has the higher Range between him and Schoop, and the lower IF Error will hurt less at SS than 2B, as well as the lower Turn DP. The lower arm shouldn't kill him, not enough to compensate for the difference in Range IMHO.

You may be right in OOTP terms but IRL it seems pretty standard knowledge that a lot of Major League 2B are ex SS with (relatively) weak arms. Off the top of my head I can think of 2-3 who played SS either in the minors or college a lot. I do mean relatively weak arms, the move to 2B may make a weak SS arm a strong 2B arm. OOTP doesn't differentiate this.

Pedroia, Hill, Cano and Zobrist come to mind. I'm sure there are more and I would stipulate that Zobrist may be able to play SS in the bigs full time.

It's an interesting discussion. I'll tell you that I would never voluntarily play someone with Harringtons ratings at SS if I had other options. I'd even play him at 3B and take the defensive hit in return for his batting. It would be cool to "know" what really works.

[knockahoma]

Rich

It's an interesting discussion. I'll tell you that I would never voluntarily play someone with Harringtons ratings at SS if I had other options. I'd even play him at 3B and take the defensive hit in return for his batting. It would be cool to "know" what really works.

Yeah. I sure grit my teeth at Harrington playing SS. IRL he doesn't have the arm for 3B and at 2B, he still has stone hands. If I were determined to keep Harrington, he'd be in the OF, or at 1B. He sure hits well enough to play 1st. Then you trade one of the remaining bats for a real shortstop.

But is that cheating?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by knockahoma

Rich

Yeah. I sure grit my teeth at Harrington playing SS. IRL he doesn't have the arm for 3B and at 2B, he still has stone hands. If I were determined to keep Harrington, he'd be in the OF, or at 1B. He sure hits well enough to play 1st. Then you trade one of the remaining bats for a real shortstop.

But is that cheating?

Maybe you were too subtle for me.

How could that be cheating?

[knockahoma]

Oh, just cheating in the sense that I avoided the options offered (playing all three at 2b,ss,3b).

Hey, L.

I agree with Rich. It would be great fun to see how each scenario would turn out in OOTP. Here's something I occasionally do for this type of thing. Save your game as a quickstart. Then quickstart the same league a few times (turn off injuries) and run one universe where Harrington is SS, one where Schoop is SS.

I've found playing in god-mode that often a shortstop with poor ratings will find his way to the top 1/3 in range and errors. I don't use scouts, so it may be a fog of war thing, or it may be an example of OOTP showing how much range factor is dependent upon things outside a guy's actual range.

IRL it looks like Harrington's arm is far too weak to keep him at SS. But your stats make him look like a slightly below average SS-- or at least, he seems to perform better than one would expect with his rotten error and arm ratings.

On Harrington:
He has a .972 fielding percentage (league leader .988) -> 12th
Total chances 392 (ll 515) -> 8th
Errors 11 (ll 24) -> 8th
Double Plays 42 (ll 67) -> 8th
Innings playes 941 (ll 1104) -> 6th
Range factor 3.64 (ll 4.18) -> 14th
It's a 18 team league (original NL with three rounds of expansion, no DH)

So, another question. In OOTP, ratings aside, if Harrington's defensive numbers remained where they are while he hit big, would people still move him off SS? He'd still be my 1B (OOTP doesn't seem to make size a requirement for 1b, though that might be an issue IRL)