1980 Gone Wrong

Cowboys3356 · 07-19-2008, 06:53 PM

I have half way through the 1980 season. I imported everything using the default historical settings and the Lahman Database (neutralized stats). Any suggestions on how to get more home run and stolen base results would be great. Here are some of the out of control stats so far through 80 games...

Bob Horner: 44 Home runs, 3 other guys over 30 HRs
Rickey Henderson: 74 steals, 4 other guys over 50

Maybe I can live with the steals but 44 home runs at the break in 1980 seem a bit out of line.

Left-handed Badger · 07-19-2008, 08:41 PM

Yeah, the steals dont seem that unusual for the time. Henderson, Raines (i believe around that time LeFlore and Moreno battled for a lead with steals in the 90s)

HRs that is way wacked. George Foster in 1977 was the only player with 50 + in the 70 and 80s. I think the AL league went nearly the whole decade of the 1970s without even a 40 HR guy. And George Foster in 1977 was the first since 1973 to hit even 40 HRs, period. It could happen, Horner did have a lot of potential but that many players with that many HRs.

Spritze · 07-19-2008, 09:45 PM

If 1980 is the initial season of your league that is the culprit. Initial seasons have many known challenges. The biggest is that all the modifiers are set to 1 and they won't produce logical historical numbers that way. After two or three seasons things will right themselves so keep playing.

I am sure Mr. Markus has a plan for that fix.

Syd Thrift · 07-19-2008, 11:43 PM

One thing you can do - and I am not, not, not creating apologia for your issue, which must be very, very frustrating - is the following:

1. Go in and figure out your league's hit, double, triple, HR, walk, strikeout, and hit batsmen rates. You could go into fielding and figure out the error rate as well if you want (the error rate is 1.000 minus your league fielding average). You can do steals if you want but frankly your numbers don't look that far off; Rickey stole 130 in '82 and 90-100 steal seasons were not unheard of back then.

If you're replaying the entire MLB, I'd recommend just doing this for the AL or the NL. Chances are the rates are off in each league by roughly the same amount and anyway even if they aren't there's not a lot you can do about differences between the league.

2. Pull up the 1980 NL or AL at baseballreference.com, whichever you're comparing, and figure out the rates for what the league should be.

3. Divide the real-life 1980 rates by your league rates. This will give you a number that is below 1 for your homeruns. In fact, if you end up with a number above 1 when you do homers, you divided in the wrong direction.

4. Re-import the league using the same database you used before. Same year, same everything.

5. Go into the Game Setup screen, then to League Setup, then over to that Settings tab where you can set the size of the rotations the game uses and how often the AI sacrifices and so on. Stick those numbers you just came up with in the appropriate rows in the Modifiers column under League Totals.

This will make your new league operate with numbers much, much closer to reality. In fact, this is basically what the game will do behind the scenes when you get done with 1980 and start 1981. I used to do this all the time when I was starting leagues in OOTP4 and 5. It's a PITA but the good news is that you've already done a good deal of the groundwork already (in that you've already simmed half a season).

Now, that being said, even if you do get the settings right on so that the league totals are 100% accurate, you're going to see somebody like Bob Horner hit a lot of HRs in the first half-season just due to random chance. I doubt it will be 44 (that does sound like too big of an outlier), but it could be 30. Mike Schmidt did, after all, hit 48 for the whole season.

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 12:11 PM

This is exactly what I've constated after my first simulation of the 1969 season. I've just find the homerun leader too high and because of you I know why.

<a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_NLm_498b0c5.jpg&srv=img28" target="_blank"><img src="http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/4/7/20/t_NLm_498b0c5.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a>

Now I am in the 1970 season and my first reaction was that the offense was too high. I know that the season is young (only 4 games) but every game that I've played is an offensive festival.

<a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard02m_d120407.jpg&srv=img34" target="_blank"><img src="http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/4/7/20/t_Clipboard02m_d120407.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a>

I am sure that the reason is the modifier create by the game for the second season.

<a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard01m_8cbfa08.jpg&srv=img26" target="_blank"><img src="http://img26.picoodle.com/img/img26/4/7/20/t_Clipboard01m_8cbfa08.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a>

If I do what you have said in your points 2 and 3 and restart a new game I suppose that the league will be more realist? or will I have to do this each seasons?

Syd Thrift · 07-20-2008, 12:39 PM

I'd play out more games before messing around with the settings. Stats from very early in the season often look weird. If you think you might want to do that, save a backup of the league. I will say that the game generally does a good job of getting the league totals right after season 1.

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 01:15 PM

I've just made the comparaison between the real and simulated 69 season

Real life (simulation result) difference

AB = 131287 (132327) : -1040
Hit = 32581 (32666) : -85
2B = 4840 (5463) : -623
3B = 849 (655) : +194
HR = 3119 (2083) : +1036
BB = 13429 (11057) : +2372
K = 22473 (22048) : +425
SBase = 1850 (3141) : -1291
AVG : .248 (.247)

The funiest thing is that in the real life season much more homerun was hit, contrary to what I was thinking. But the stolen base total in the simulation doesn't look correct.

If I want to calculate the real life rate as you said in the point 3, I have to take the real 2007 and the real 1969. Is this correct?

Jah · 07-20-2008, 01:15 PM

AESP - Your 1969 NL home run leader numbers seem pretty realistic.

In real life:
McCovey-45
Aaron-44
May-38
Perez-37
Wynn-33

The NL hit 1470 homers that year...you might want to see how your OOTP league compares to this total.

Jah · 07-20-2008, 01:20 PM

AESP - Just saw your post comparing the numbers with real life.

Stolen bases have been way too high for me as well with late 60's/early 70's seasons - I've lowered the Strategy setting to "Rarely" and this has helped somewhat.

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 01:27 PM

Maybe it's the "this player didn't do that in real life" factor.

It's just that my team leader has too many homerun in comparaison with his real life 69 season.

Mack Jones : 42 compare to 23

I know the game doesn't know who is Mack Jones.

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jah

The NL hit 1470 homers that year...you might want to see how your OOTP league compares to this total.

1428 in my simulation, 42 less than in real life, not a big difference. After I've made the comparaison it seems that my first impression was completly wrong on this : in real life much homerun were hit not the contrary...

Jah · 07-20-2008, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AESP_pres

Maybe it's the "this player didn't do that in real life" factor.

It's just that my team leader has too many homerun in comparaison with his real life 69 season.

Mack Jones : 42 compare to 23

I know the game doesn't know who is Mack Jones.

I hear ya! Guys do overperform occasionally. For what it's worth...I know it's way out of the recalc range, but Mack did hit 31 homers in 1965!

Syd Thrift · 07-20-2008, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AESP_pres

I've just made the comparaison between the real and simulated 69 season

Real life (simulation result) difference

AB = 131287 (132327) : -1040
Hit = 32581 (32666) : -85
2B = 4840 (5463) : -623
3B = 849 (655) : +194
HR = 3119 (2083) : +1036
BB = 13429 (11057) : +2372
K = 22473 (22048) : +425
SBase = 1850 (3141) : -1291
AVG : .248 (.247)

The funiest thing is that in the real life season much more homerun was hit, contrary to what I was thinking. But the stolen base total in the simulation doesn't look correct.

If I want to calculate the real life rate as you said in the point 3, I have to take the real 2007 and the real 1969. Is this correct?

No, if you already have a season done like you did, you want to take the real life 1969 and compare it to the season the game just created. Part of the reason the game has issues with the first seasons of historical replays is that the database of players for, say, 1969, has different medians and modes than the database used for 2007. Also, if you're using the Gambo database or something else, things will be different as well. Because of that the best thing to do is to look at what numbers the game actually produces with that season and compare them to real-life (which is, again, what the game does with historical replays after the first year).

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 04:17 PM

Just to be sure that I understand corectly : I take my season result and compare with the real 69.

This is the result :

Hit = .997
2B = .886
3B = 1.296
HR = 1.497
BB = 1.215
K = 1.019

After that I create a new season and I use those numbers as modifier. That's right?

I will make more simulation of the year (3 or 4) to have a better season pool to make the comparaison. I just want to get it right.

For those that I can find (Fielding errors and the rest) will I leave what the game decide or those stats are hidden somewhere and I can find them?

Thanks for your help Jah and Syd.

pstrickert · 07-20-2008, 04:22 PM

Check out this thread and post #14:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...rt-season.html

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 04:40 PM

I've no access to this forum part (I suppose that it's the one for the beta tester).

<a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard01m_8c95055.jpg&srv=img26" target="_blank"><img src="http://img26.picoodle.com/img/img26/4/7/20/t_Clipboard01m_8c95055.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a>

Is it possible that you paste the post in question here? Thanks

pstrickert · 07-20-2008, 04:46 PM

Oops! Sorry about that! Spritze posted his spreadsheet for calculating LTMs. I hope he doesn't mind if I post it here, too.

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 05:06 PM

Thank you very much

AESP_pres · 07-20-2008, 09:43 PM

I've made a test with the Spritze spreadsheet using always the same starting base for all the simulation test.

<a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard01m_456ed8d.jpg&srv=img34" target="_blank"><img src="http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/4/7/20/t_Clipboard01m_456ed8d.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a>

As you could see I've made six test league and after that I've calculate the average to decide the modifiers. The result are not so bad but the homerun difference is really too big (the leader number are realist btw). Maybe I need much more test to get a better pool or I have to accept that the total can't be 100% accurate because of the injury (a minor leaguer is not as good than a major leaguer).

Sorry for the hijack Cowboys3356

pstrickert · 07-20-2008, 10:32 PM

I simmed the 1969 season using your LTMs (and 1-year recalc). Hits, 2B, and HR were 1-2% too high. SO were 4% too low. BB were 17% too high. IMO, these were fairly decent results, except for the BBs. The BB modifier of 1.218 is much too high.

What were your ERA and AVG totals for the NL and AL in your 1969 sim?

07-19-2008, 06:53 PM	#1 (permalink)
Cowboys3356 All Star Starter Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 1,382 Thanks: 8 Thanked 5x in 5 posts	1980 Gone Wrong I have half way through the 1980 season. I imported everything using the default historical settings and the Lahman Database (neutralized stats). Any suggestions on how to get more home run and stolen base results would be great. Here are some of the out of control stats so far through 80 games... Bob Horner: 44 Home runs, 3 other guys over 30 HRs Rickey Henderson: 74 steals, 4 other guys over 50 Maybe I can live with the steals but 44 home runs at the break in 1980 seem a bit out of line.

07-19-2008, 08:41 PM	#2 (permalink)
Left-handed Badger All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 1,970 Thanks: 0 Thanked 65x in 56 posts	Yeah, the steals dont seem that unusual for the time. Henderson, Raines (i believe around that time LeFlore and Moreno battled for a lead with steals in the 90s) HRs that is way wacked. George Foster in 1977 was the only player with 50 + in the 70 and 80s. I think the AL league went nearly the whole decade of the 1970s without even a 40 HR guy. And George Foster in 1977 was the first since 1973 to hit even 40 HRs, period. It could happen, Horner did have a lot of potential but that many players with that many HRs. __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

07-20-2008, 09:43 PM	#19 (permalink)
AESP_pres All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 812 Blog Entries: 25 Thanks: 937 Thanked 184x in 115 posts	I've made a test with the Spritze spreadsheet using always the same starting base for all the simulation test. <a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard01m_456ed8d.jpg&srv=img34" target="_blank"><img src="http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/4/7/20/t_Clipboard01m_456ed8d.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a> As you could see I've made six test league and after that I've calculate the average to decide the modifiers. The result are not so bad but the homerun difference is really too big (the leader number are realist btw). Maybe I need much more test to get a better pool or I have to accept that the total can't be 100% accurate because of the injury (a minor leaguer is not as good than a major leaguer). Sorry for the hijack Cowboys3356 Last edited by AESP_pres; 07-20-2008 at 09:44 PM.

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07-19-2008, 09:45 PM	#3 (permalink)
Spritze Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Redmond Wa and Cape Coast Ghana Posts: 2,946 Thanks: 16 Thanked 344x in 242 posts	If 1980 is the initial season of your league that is the culprit. Initial seasons have many known challenges. The biggest is that all the modifiers are set to 1 and they won't produce logical historical numbers that way. After two or three seasons things will right themselves so keep playing. I am sure Mr. Markus has a plan for that fix.

07-20-2008, 12:11 PM	#5 (permalink)
AESP_pres All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 812 Blog Entries: 25 Thanks: 937 Thanked 184x in 115 posts	This is exactly what I've constated after my first simulation of the 1969 season. I've just find the homerun leader too high and because of you I know why. <a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_NLm_498b0c5.jpg&srv=img28" target="_blank"><img src="http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/4/7/20/t_NLm_498b0c5.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a> Now I am in the 1970 season and my first reaction was that the offense was too high. I know that the season is young (only 4 games) but every game that I've played is an offensive festival. <a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard02m_d120407.jpg&srv=img34" target="_blank"><img src="http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/4/7/20/t_Clipboard02m_d120407.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a> I am sure that the reason is the modifier create by the game for the second season. <a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard01m_8cbfa08.jpg&srv=img26" target="_blank"><img src="http://img26.picoodle.com/img/img26/4/7/20/t_Clipboard01m_8cbfa08.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a> If I do what you have said in your points 2 and 3 and restart a new game I suppose that the league will be more realist? or will I have to do this each seasons?

07-20-2008, 01:15 PM	#7 (permalink)
AESP_pres All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 812 Blog Entries: 25 Thanks: 937 Thanked 184x in 115 posts	I've just made the comparaison between the real and simulated 69 season Real life (simulation result) difference AB = 131287 (132327) : -1040 Hit = 32581 (32666) : -85 2B = 4840 (5463) : -623 3B = 849 (655) : +194 HR = 3119 (2083) : +1036 BB = 13429 (11057) : +2372 K = 22473 (22048) : +425 SBase = 1850 (3141) : -1291 AVG : .248 (.247) The funiest thing is that in the real life season much more homerun was hit, contrary to what I was thinking. But the stolen base total in the simulation doesn't look correct. If I want to calculate the real life rate as you said in the point 3, I have to take the real 2007 and the real 1969. Is this correct?

07-20-2008, 01:15 PM	#8 (permalink)
Jah Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 148 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3x in 1 post	AESP - Your 1969 NL home run leader numbers seem pretty realistic. In real life: McCovey-45 Aaron-44 May-38 Perez-37 Wynn-33 The NL hit 1470 homers that year...you might want to see how your OOTP league compares to this total.

07-20-2008, 01:20 PM	#9 (permalink)
Jah Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 148 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3x in 1 post	AESP - Just saw your post comparing the numbers with real life. Stolen bases have been way too high for me as well with late 60's/early 70's seasons - I've lowered the Strategy setting to "Rarely" and this has helped somewhat.

07-20-2008, 01:27 PM	#10 (permalink)
AESP_pres All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 812 Blog Entries: 25 Thanks: 937 Thanked 184x in 115 posts	Maybe it's the "this player didn't do that in real life" factor. It's just that my team leader has too many homerun in comparaison with his real life 69 season. Mack Jones : 42 compare to 23 I know the game doesn't know who is Mack Jones.

07-20-2008, 04:17 PM	#14 (permalink)
AESP_pres All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 812 Blog Entries: 25 Thanks: 937 Thanked 184x in 115 posts	Just to be sure that I understand corectly : I take my season result and compare with the real 69. This is the result : Hit = .997 2B = .886 3B = 1.296 HR = 1.497 BB = 1.215 K = 1.019 After that I create a new season and I use those numbers as modifier. That's right? I will make more simulation of the year (3 or 4) to have a better season pool to make the comparaison. I just want to get it right. For those that I can find (Fielding errors and the rest) will I leave what the game decide or those stats are hidden somewhere and I can find them? Thanks for your help Jah and Syd.

07-20-2008, 04:22 PM	#15 (permalink)
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 5,889 Thanks: 331 Thanked 385x in 223 posts	Check out this thread and post #14: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...rt-season.html

07-20-2008, 04:40 PM	#16 (permalink)
AESP_pres All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 812 Blog Entries: 25 Thanks: 937 Thanked 184x in 115 posts	I've no access to this forum part (I suppose that it's the one for the beta tester). <a href="http://www.picoodle.com/view.php?img=/4/7/20/f_Clipboard01m_8c95055.jpg&srv=img26" target="_blank"><img src="http://img26.picoodle.com/img/img26/4/7/20/t_Clipboard01m_8c95055.jpg" border="0" alt="Image Hosting by Picoodle.com" /></a> Is it possible that you paste the post in question here? Thanks

07-20-2008, 05:06 PM	#18 (permalink)
AESP_pres All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Province of Quebec Posts: 812 Blog Entries: 25 Thanks: 937 Thanked 184x in 115 posts	Thank you very much

07-20-2008, 10:32 PM	#20 (permalink)
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 5,889 Thanks: 331 Thanked 385x in 223 posts	I simmed the 1969 season using your LTMs (and 1-year recalc). Hits, 2B, and HR were 1-2% too high. SO were 4% too low. BB were 17% too high. IMO, these were fairly decent results, except for the BBs. The BB modifier of 1.218 is much too high. What were your ERA and AVG totals for the NL and AL in your 1969 sim?