Steps for getting more realistic stats in your first season

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

does having very accurate first season stats help the LTMs to do their job better in subsequent seasons?

No ... or maybe. The people who say that you should sim a couple of seasons before you actually start playing probably believe that the LTM system has to triangulate in on the correct levels. I don't think that's true, because otherwise this technique wouldn't work so well for the first season.

OTOH, the automatic LTM calculation is always playing catch-up to some extent. It's working from stats recorded in one season and making adjustments to be used in the following season -- but in the meantime, your rosters will have changed (retirements, rookies, players coming back from injuries, etc.). Based on that, you might think the automated process needs more time to "get it right." You might also think you should use my technique every season (which could be done). My conclusion is that it makes more sense to get the first season right, and then just let the automatic LTM process do it's thing. The resulting stats are always going to be somewhat "wrong" no matter what.

[pstrickert]

Markus confirmed that -- for the original OOTPX release -- he improved the accuracy of the initial import season.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by pstrickert

Markus confirmed that -- for the original OOTPX release -- he improved the accuracy of the initial import season.

Take that with a grain of salt. It's better but just a little.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by SteveP

No ... or maybe. The people who say that you should sim a couple of seasons before you actually start playing probably believe that the LTM system has to triangulate in on the correct levels. I don't think that's true, because otherwise this technique wouldn't work so well for the first season.

OTOH, the automatic LTM calculation is always playing catch-up to some extent. It's working from stats recorded in one season and making adjustments to be used in the following season -- but in the meantime, your rosters will have changed (retirements, rookies, players coming back from injuries, etc.). Based on that, you might think the automated process needs more time to "get it right." You might also think you should use my technique every season (which could be done). My conclusion is that it makes more sense to get the first season right, and then just let the automatic LTM process do it's thing. The resulting stats are always going to be somewhat "wrong" no matter what.

Thanks SteveP, I suppose I could run a test of the next season using both methods and see which one works better. Your method for the first year resulted in the following rate stats and ratios for 1901 (I basically ignore counting stats because there are all kinds of reasons why they'll never be right, but the ratios and rate stats are the accuracy-seeking baseball simmer's best friend):

Real vs Sim:

BA: .272 vs .271 (.27145)
OBP: .327 vs .324 (but remember, game tracks SF, which drags down OBP, where RL did not; take out SF, OBP becomes .328 [.32758])
SLG: .360 vs .361 (.36054)
WHIP: 1.352 vs 1.354
H/9: 9.7 vs 9.6
HR/9: 0.2 vs 0.2
BB/9: 2.5 vs 2.6
K/9: 3.2 vs 3.1
K/BB: 1.28 vs 1.19
FPct: .943 vs .943
SB%: 55.0% (Garlon-Spritze land) vs 57.0%
R/G: 4.99 vs 4.83
ERA: 3.49 vs 3.28
R/G minus ERA: 1.50 vs 1.55
CG%: 86.2% vs 75.0%

Other settings: No coaches/scouts; No suspensions or injuries (avg total roster size is about 23); High Pos Player Fatigue; Player Development Disabled; Traditional Lineup Selection with 100% Weight on Ratings; Neutralized Park Factors and Weather; No Minor Leagues (yet); Auto Adjust League Strategy On; Retire Players According To History On; 3 year Recalc - No Double Weight; Neutralized Stats; Base Rookie Fielding Ratings/Pitcher Stamina On: Entire Career; Auto Adjust LTMs after each season: Off to collect LTMs you will use, On With Those LTMs inputted for your sim; Auto Import Player Creation Modifiers On.

Notes: I used 10 sims in collecting the LTMs that I used for this sim, then took the average, and used it. 2 categories stand out as being way off even with proper LTMage: 1) Balks: which happen so infrequently, that I just don't care and 2) Errors. The first time I simmed I came out with a .980 FPct, which is just wrong. RL Errors: 5327; First go around errors: 1929. 5327/1929 = 2.762. Then I multiplied each of the 9 Position Error Modifiers by 2.762, to come up with proper ones. Next time through: 5316 Errors: much better.

SteveP, your method speaks for itself. Thanks for sharing.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

2 categories stand out as being way off even with proper LTMage: 1) Balks: which happen so infrequently, that I just don't care and 2) Errors. The first time I simmed I came out with a .980 FPct, which is just wrong. RL Errors: 5327; First go around errors: 1929. 5327/1929 = 2.762. Then I multiplied each of the 9 Position Error Modifiers by 2.762, to come up with proper ones. Next time through: 5316 Errors: much better.

Balks probably should not even be in the LTM process. There are a couple of others that can be quite volatile (e.g., passed balls), so some manual adjustment might be useful.

There was some question at the end of beta as to whether the fielding LTMs were working quite right. Range can do some strange things over the course of several seasons, for example. So taking your cut at it, at this stage, might be prudent. Stay tuned on that one -- there might be some fixes coming (that's not inside knowledge, just an educated guess ).

[nwohio_cubsfan]

Originally Posted by SteveP

The purpose of this post is to describe the process I use for getting correct LTMs for the initial season of a league (or for any single season replay). It uses an undocumented "feature" of the LTM adjustment process that even some veteran players may be unaware of.

In the League Setup portion of Game Setup, on the Strategy Page, there are League Totals (LTs) and League Total Modifiers (LTMs). Please read up about these in the manual, if you are unfamiliar with them and how the game uses them (also how the game adjusts them before each new season).

The LTMs always start out at 1.000 in a new league (this hasn't changed in OOTP10), which means that the stats produced in the first season (and, to some small extent, even in a second season) are likely to be unrealistic. Some of the worst problems in this regard (e.g., SBAs) have been improved in OOTP10, but the problem still exists. The standard recommendation has been that people sim out a couple of seasons (so that the automatic LTM adjustment process can kick in) before they really start playing, but many OOTP gamers don't want to do that. I know I didn't.

Here are the steps:

1. Create your league. I suggest using some other name for your league than the one you ultimately want (because you will be discarding this league eventually and you don't want it pre-empting the name you want to use). Get the league set up for play to your satisfaction. Save it.

2. Create a copy of your league. One way to do this is by using the "Make Backup" function in the game menu. This function makes a complete copy of your game, using the same name, but puts it in a different folder from Saved Games. The other way to do it is to go out to your system and make a duplicate of your league folder in Saved Games (which is why you want to save your league before making a copy). This copy is the version of your league that you will actually end up playing, so be sure you have copied it fully.

3. With the original version of your game still loaded, go to the League Setup Strategy Page and uncheck the "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers after each season for historical accuracy" box. If it was already unchecked for some reason, leave it that way.

4. Select the option which directs OOTP to Auto-play (sim) a complete season until "... PLAYOFFS BEGIN". Since this version of your league is only for the purpose of gathering LTM-related data for your real game, there are a lot of steps you can use to speed up this sim. For example, in the Game Preferences, set Auto-play display to "simple dialog". Turn off injuries, trading, financials, Spring training, all-star games, drafting and anything else not necessary for producing stats. I also find it is faster if I make myself commissioner only, and not a team manager as well.

5. When Auto-play is done, go to the League Setup Strategy page. You will still see 1.000 in all the LTM boxes. At this point check the "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers after each season for historical accuracy". You will see the LTMs change in almost all of the boxes. What has happened is that the game has calculated the LTMs that should have been used to get more accurate results for the season you just simmed. Those are the numbers you want for the league you intend to play. Write them down, making sure that you keep track of which numbers go in which boxes. (Side note: if by some chance you simmed this season but forgot to uncheck the "Automatically adjust ..." box first, it's OK. Just uncheck it, sim one more day, then recheck it).

6. Load the copy of your league, giving it whatever name you want (this is pretty easy with the Restore Backup function). Go to the League Setup Strategy page, and replace the 1.000 LTMs with the numbers you wrote down. Also, check the "Automatically adjust league totals modifiers after each season for historical accuracy" box if it is unchecked. Save. Make a backup (just because it's a good idea). You are ready to play. (Side note: if you want to be really thorough, enter these same LTMs into the appropriate boxes for each of your minor leagues. This is what the game does automatically in the LTM adjustment process. You will get better stats in your minor leagues, though they will still be more unrealistic than many gamers would like. Nothing I can do about that. )

With a fast sim, all this can be done pretty quickly (30-40 minutes perhaps). As a result, I think there is no reason why OOTP gamers should have to compromise on what they get from that first season.

Note for OOTP veterans: the LTMs that you get from this technique are not the same as the adjusted LTMs that the game automatically creates at the start of each new preseason. The latter are calculated based on the previous season's results but adjusted for the coming season's historical stats. You can check this out by getting LTMs using the technique above, then simming forward to the next preseason. You will see that the LTMs have changed. In contrast, the LTMs you get from this technique produce realistic stats for the season just simmed if you use them in a cloned version of that season.

As noted in later posts in this thread, this technique does not seem to work correctly for errors. I don't know why, and perhaps in some future patch this will be fixed. The LTMs you get for errors are better than the 1.000 default settings, because you will get a better distribution of errors by position. But league/team totals for errors will likely be off from historical stats. By checking the historical record, you can calculate a manual adjustment for yourself, if you wish.

Would this be required if you're starting a new league with real players in the year 2010? To sim through it and have a backup copy ready to upload the end of the season LTMs?

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by nwohio_cubsfan

Would this be required if you're starting a new league with real players in the year 2010? To sim through it and have a backup copy ready to upload the end of the season LTMs?

As I understand your question, the answer is no. The whole LTM process is about using stats from real life to calibrate the totals that you get in your own league. If there are no real life stats, there is nothing for the LTM process to do.

That is why the technique is really only useful for historical leagues, when you want league stats to reasonably mirror what happened in those specific years.

Hope the clarifies things.

[Terpripken]

Ran across this today when searching for info on LTM....thank you very much. I have been trying in vain to get things where they need to be for my all time teams tourney. This method works like a charm. Thanks!