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Old 04-18-2010, 01:49 PM   #1
robc
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How much effort do people spend planning for the inaugural draft?

I'm curious if people typically draft by the seat of their pants or if they spend a lot of time going through the draft pool and planning their picks, evaluating the players, etc.

So far I have been just looking at starting pitchers and I think I have spent an hour or two.
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Old 04-18-2010, 02:40 PM   #2
conception
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I usually just go by the seat of my pants. If I try to plan too far ahead, then I'm just going to be disappointed when the players I want aren't there.
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Old 04-18-2010, 03:52 PM   #3
endgame
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In the past, I've dedicated a fair amount of time to the first 5-10 picks, simply looking through the game-provided info on game-created screens, trying to make an educated choice along the way about what I envision.

This time, however, I've probably invested 8-12 hours up front creating reports, through the Open Report, Open in External Browser, Copy, Paste to Excel, Sort, Examine, etc... until I developed what was effectively a pre-draft plan to guide through my intentions. I determined, in this case, to spend nothing on players that wanted more than minimum demands and get the best value I could for them, striking through choices made by the other teams and what round they were taken to keep my draft-sheet current through the process. I did this for the first 25 rounds, and stayed involved in the picks through the first 40 to target my eventual planned 40-man. That, all in all, was probably another 12 hours, including off-screen study and analysis of who might be my next pick if the player was still available.

Yeah, this time I'm almost in obsessive mode, but restraining myself where I can. From here on out, I'll monitor the scout recommendations until the final pick of the inaugural and likely okay them, as long as he doesn't suggest salaries. Demand or demand more than the minimum? Nope. Next?
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Old 04-18-2010, 04:02 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robc View Post
So far I have been just looking at starting pitchers and I think I have spent an hour or two.
The most difficult aspect of the draft, the way I conducted it, involved similar time investments like the one you're mentioning. It's easy to forget where you're going to fall in the pick order and it can skew plans that won't be realized.

For instance - I think it was Round 9, I can check the notes on my pre-draft sheet - I'd highlighted (in green ) age groups and player positions I'd hoped to take in the first 10 rounds. After every round I'd examine the positional groupings to make sure there were still opportunities to acquire a player from that positional list, until my hand was forced; it was. In that round, I noticed that there was only one catcher left that I wanted "under the conditions I described in my first post" and knew I had to grab him or I would be forced to shell out an investment on the order of 1.5MIL+ for a player I hadn't intended to bring into the organization at all.

I watched selection by selection, each team taking their draws from the deck that held only one card important to me. I literally held my breath on almost selection, waiting for the "Crap! They took Boyer! He wasn't great, but now I'll have to spend money on better!?" That moment never came. I was able to pick him up, after about 18 picks when it got to me, because a majority of those before me went after prospects. Whew.

Oh, well. I've rambled on even more than I normally do, but suffice to say the immersion factor and the familiarity with players, including those taken by other teams, is enhanced on the front end if you do some serious takes on what's available and develop a "philosophy" about your role in the game and in the organization.
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Old 04-18-2010, 04:07 PM   #5
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I too spend a lot of time on my first five or six picks. So I do a lot of research on my first two starting pitchers, a number four slot slugger, a number two spot contact hitter. Next I research closers, setup men and catchers.

After that, I fly by the seat of my pants, but depending on how long your are going to play, it is also important to find the young potential players early on too. All told I think I spend at least two or three hours doing research before I started the draft.
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Old 04-18-2010, 04:10 PM   #6
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Sorry, too much caffeine today I guess. Just for kicks and giggles, here's the pre-draft sheet I generated and some computer notes I added into it along the way. The highlighted yellow players are the ones I selected. The rest were candidates, etc...

And of course the handwritten notes, I wouldn't bother to upload. There are too many and they look like I was figuring out how to create something nuclear or the beginning of a final manifesto before I disappeared into OOTP forever.
Attached Files
File Type: xls InauguralPreDraftNOCRIT.xls (103.5 KB, 520 views)
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Old 04-18-2010, 05:38 PM   #7
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endgame - you did put a lot of effort into this! I'm spending quite a bit too, but may fall short of you.

I am kind of hand ranking all the starting pitchers rated at least 4 stars by my scout. I changed the stars to be based on the AI evaluation soit isn't just ratings.

I think the I will do the same for the positional players. Then as my list runs out, rank some more as the draft goes on. I guess no sense spending a lot of time ranking players that get picked by the computer.
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Old 04-18-2010, 05:55 PM   #8
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Everybody's different. In your case, that positional outlook sounds like it'd serve you best, then just check off missed opportunities as you go.
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Old 04-18-2010, 09:04 PM   #9
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I started this years ootp with a fantasy draft and pretty much flew by the seat of my pants..
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Old 04-18-2010, 09:07 PM   #10
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I started this years ootp with a fantasy draft and pretty much flew by the seat of my pants..
And no doubt right to a championship, too. Wouldn't surprise me a bit. Like I say, everybody's different and finds the enjoyment in different aspects of the game. Back in the day, when I was an avid wargamer, I can recall nights where 3/4 of it was spent debating and reading the instructions, interpreting detail (a bit like the forums get here ) and half the balance spent actually setting up pieces! That's why games always lasted into the early morning hours.

Good luck with those pants, Mizz.
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Old 04-18-2010, 10:29 PM   #11
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And no doubt right to a championship, too. Wouldn't surprise me a bit. Like I say, everybody's different and finds the enjoyment in different aspects of the game. Back in the day, when I was an avid wargamer, I can recall nights where 3/4 of it was spent debating and reading the instructions, interpreting detail (a bit like the forums get here ) and half the balance spent actually setting up pieces! That's why games always lasted into the early morning hours.

Good luck with those pants, Mizz.
LOL.. getting ready to play my first game with Johan Santana on the mound.. it was nice to see teams take talent early though.. something I didn't really think about until the mid rounds when it was too late.
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Old 04-19-2010, 08:21 AM   #12
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I drafted with one scouting director then decided his ratings weren't good enough for me so I fired him and hired another. That was a mistake I won't make again. At least one guy who I thought had 5 star potential, was a 2.5 star guy according to my new scouting director. Of course, I don't like this new director either because the stats are not matching with his ratings at all. I may just turn scouting off.
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Old 04-19-2010, 11:57 AM   #13
conception
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The reason why I don't devote much time to the initial draft is that I've usually had scouts that were way off on their talent estimations. For me, the most fun is in assembling my initial roster, then trying to shift parts to assemble the type of organization that I want to have. I usually pick a couple guys in the prime of their careers, then try and trade them for guys who have near equal talent but are younger and less developed. The risk with these guys is that they don't always pan out to be half the player they were traded for, but the fun for me is not in assembling a team of developed guys to win it all early, it's to develop a perennial contender with payroll flexibility.

Besides, its actually fun to assemble about 20 quality guys and then try and find the superstars to take them to the next level. I find trading my superstars early is fun.
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Old 04-19-2010, 04:21 PM   #14
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Generally speaking -

I've found it too easy to build a juggernaut if you draft "right" in the inaugural... I would rarely win in year #1 - but I'd have hands down the best farm system in the game and all of my 'major league quality' players were drafted purely as trading chits to acquire the stud prospects I missed out on. By year 3 - I'm consistently winning 110-120 games a year (even with trading on hard/favor prospects) - and the pipeline is overflowing as I've always got cheap stars getting ready for arbitration to flipped for more prospects (My god, just realized... I'm Jeff Loria... now I'm disgusted with myself).

As a result, what I usually do now is draft with the intention of making the worst team possible... bloated budget, washed up, high-priced, long term contracts, ZERO prospects (I go out of my way to make sure that even my minor league rosters are filled with 30somethings).

It's a lot tougher - I end up with some truly hideous, unmoveable contracts, ticked off fans.

The other plus is that it, under such a case, it takes me a good 3 years to build a moderately competitive team -- and by the time I'm on the lookup for missing pieces, I finally have a "history" of players.

As I said in another thread -- for my purposes, having been with OOTP since OOTP3 -- that's the sole remaining feature I want... Now that we've got arbitration, draft bonuses -- all I really want is the option to flash-generate a fiction history for my fictional universe.
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Old 04-19-2010, 06:30 PM   #15
robc
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Well, my planning and spreadsheets kind of went out the window after the first several rounds. First, it just takes too long to go through all the players and rank them how you want them. I initially evaluated the top 15 or so at each fielding position in order of my scouts overall star rating. This usually led to several players I would be iterested in, but I noticed that the star rating deviated by a large amount from what I would expect a player to have from their ratings and stats. So, I always felt like I was missing someone and I frequently did find I wanted someone further down the list.

After trying to sort through the lists every which way (by both scouts), I eventually got impatient. I started using players names to filter who I looked at (I'm doing historical). I tried to be unbiased by the names and just look at the ratings or past stats, but I know I cheated some. I stumbled upon Dave Winfield and couldn't resist.

Does anyone have a system that:
1. Doesn't take forever to evaluate the players.
2. Lets you feel that you checked out everyone that is worthy of checking out.
3. Doesn't use the players names to take good talent that the past stats or their ratings support.
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:11 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robc View Post
Does anyone have a system that:
1. Doesn't take forever to evaluate the players.
2. Lets you feel that you checked out everyone that is worthy of checking out.
3. Doesn't use the players names to take good talent that the past stats or their ratings support.
My old way was sort by potential (all players*)and watch the list disappear one by one as they were drafted. Any given time you have a screen of 25-30 players, some with 1 star OVR (prospects) and some with 4 star OVR (maybe veterans OR young stars who can give you a lasting career). Scan the positions. Need a 2B? How many are up there? Two? Better grab one. etc... Down, dirty, you click on players of interest, invariably.

*you can always sort batters, pitchers, all, according to how many of a specific type you see on screen one, for example.
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Old 04-20-2010, 12:58 AM   #17
JimboJones
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Ok, here's an ethics question for you guys.

In real life, teams (as well as fans and "experts") do a mock draft to try determine approximately when each player will be picked. Do you think its cheating to back up your league and run a "mock" draft before the "real" draft, so you can get an idea of when players will be picked? To me there is enough randomness in drafting that this is merely simulating the mock drafts used IRL.

I don't care as much about when specific players will be drafted, as when different positions are taken. For example, how many starting pitchers will be picked in the first round? When do closers normally get taken? Are there certain postions that get grabbed up first?
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Old 04-20-2010, 01:37 AM   #18
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Ok, here's an ethics question for you guys.

In real life, teams (as well as fans and "experts") do a mock draft to try determine approximately when each player will be picked. Do you think its cheating to back up your league and run a "mock" draft before the "real" draft, so you can get an idea of when players will be picked? To me there is enough randomness in drafting that this is merely simulating the mock drafts used IRL.

I don't care as much about when specific players will be drafted, as when different positions are taken. For example, how many starting pitchers will be picked in the first round? When do closers normally get taken? Are there certain postions that get grabbed up first?
That is a tough one. I don't think I would do it, but if you believe it simulates getting some expert input then go for it. I don't know how much randomness is involved in the picks.
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Old 04-20-2010, 01:55 AM   #19
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Quote:
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That is a tough one. I don't think I would do it, but if you believe it simulates getting some expert input then go for it. I don't know how much randomness is involved in the picks.
There is not alot of randomness - some players may move up or down a few spots from draft to draft.

Where it would help is knowing about how many starting pitchers will be taken in the first round. If I knew 12 out of 16 teams would be taking pitchers in the first round, then I would probably do the same in order to get one of the top pitchers. Or if there is a closer I really want, I won't take him early if I know closers generally aren't taken in the first 10 rounds.
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Old 07-08-2010, 03:51 PM   #20
jar2574
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I have an excel spreadsheet that estimates future runs created for position players, and adds a defensive runs prevented score based on range factor, to lead to a total score for position players.

I have another spreadsheet that estimates runs prevented for pitchers based on their ratings.

I copy and paste ratings for all players into those spreadsheets, and base draft decisions on them, cross-checking with players' stats during the draft to make sure that the ratings are accurate. (I generally run 3-5 years of history to get some stats and work out the problem of inaccurate stats in the first years.)

The speadsheets I've developed over a couple years. But with the spreadsheets in place, it isn't hard to prepare for the draft. The draft itself does take a long time because I try to check guys off the spreadsheet one at a time for at least the first 20-30 rounds.
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