Home | Webstore
Latest News: FHM 2014: Version 1.6.8 Available! - Beyond the Sideline Football Announced! - OOTP 15 Announced! - OOTP 14: Update #7 Released! - Out Of The Park Baseball 14 Released! - iOOTP Baseball 2013 for iOS Available NOW! - Title Bout Championship Boxing 2.5 released!

OOTP 15 Announced - Pre-Order Now!

Beyond the Sideline Football Announced!
  

Go Back   OOTP Developments Forums > Out of the Park Baseball 11 > OOTP 11 - General Discussions

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 05-11-2011, 10:59 AM   #1 (permalink)
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 308
Thanks: 68
Thanked 26x in 20 posts
Sabermetric vs standard lineup

Has anyone tested the effectiveness of the sabermetric lineup vs the standard lineup in OOTP?

Here is the standard lineup optimized:
1 Speedy guy who can hopefully get on base
2 Good bat handler
3 Best hitter
4 Best power hitter
5 Second best (contact) hitter
6 Best remaining power hitter
7 7th best hitter
8 8th best hitter
9 9th best hitter

Here is the sabermetric lineup:
1 One of the three best hitters (high OBP)
2 One of the three best hitters
3 5th best hitter
4 One of the three best hitters (high SLG)
5 4th best hitter
6 6th best hitter
7 7th best hitter
8 8th best hitter (or pitcher if NL)
9 9th best hitter

Just curious which lineup is producing the best results. I also thought it was kind of weird putting the pitcher in the number 8 slot.
Jagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 12:15 PM   #2 (permalink)
Hall Of Famer
 
RchW's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: White Vegas - The party town
Posts: 8,301
Thanks: 1,578
Thanked 1,887x in 1,192 posts
I'm interested in what sabermetric evaluation has your 5th best hitter batting 3rd.

If this is the game analysis, using ratings, then it is way off. What weighting do you have set on the AI evaluation in game?

Edit. I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the in-game hitter evaluation, saber or not.
__________________
Cheers

RichW

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason
Ignoring your posts because you're a bigot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pope Francis
Who am I to judge?

Last edited by RchW; 05-11-2011 at 12:17 PM.
RchW is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 01:06 PM   #3 (permalink)
All Star Starter
 
oman19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Metro Detroit Area
Posts: 1,284
Thanks: 595
Thanked 302x in 192 posts
I control the Detroit Tigers in my universe. Whenever we go to a National league teams park during interleague play, if I have a speedy, decent bat kind of guy normally hitting 6, 7, 8, or 9 (Usually I will put this guy 9th anyway) I will go ahead and throw him in the 9 hole and the pitcher in the 8 hole in national league parks.

I have to have a guy on my squad who fits that criteria though who isn't hitting in spots 1-5.

I like the results usually but I'm sure there are managers out there who will disagree too.
oman19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 01:49 PM   #4 (permalink)
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 308
Thanks: 68
Thanked 26x in 20 posts
Quote:
I'm interested in what sabermetric evaluation has your 5th best hitter batting 3rd.
It is from an article by Scott McKinney contrasting the differences between managing using sabermetrics vs tradition.... located here:


The Definitive Sabermetric Guide to Managing - Beyond the Box Score
Jagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Thank you for this post:
endgame (05-12-2011)
Old 05-11-2011, 01:58 PM   #5 (permalink)
Major Leagues
 
Tram2Whitaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 336
Thanks: 2
Thanked 32x in 25 posts
I do a variation of the "standard" lineup.

1. Speed
2. High OBP (if it happens to be #3, then 2nd best goes here)
3. Highest OPS
4. Most HRs (if it happens to be #3, then 2nd most goes here)
5. Remaining power hitter
6. Highest OBP of remaining 3
7. next highest
8. next highest
9. Pitcher

Unless one of my 6-8 guys has decent speed; in which case, I bump the pitcher to 8, and move the speed guy to 9 to set up the top of the order.

So a typical lineup will look like
1. cf .275/10/50 40+ sb
2. lf .320/15/65 .400 obp
3. 3b .300/35/100 .950 ops
4. 1b .265/40/120
5. rf .255/30/100
6. 2b .272/10/60 .335 obp
7. c .255/14/54 .331 obp
8. ss .234/11/59 .311 obp
9. p because DH is evil!
__________________
The official OOTP forum "Threadkiller"~!

Last edited by Tram2Whitaker; 05-11-2011 at 02:05 PM.
Tram2Whitaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 02:07 PM   #6 (permalink)
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 308
Thanks: 68
Thanked 26x in 20 posts
Quote:
Unless one of my 6-8 guys has decent speed; in which case, I bump the pitcher to 8, and move the speed guy to 9 to set up the top of the order.
Good point. I think I may try that out.
Jagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 02:22 PM   #7 (permalink)
Minors (Double A)
 
neugey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 113
Blog Entries: 39
Thanks: 24
Thanked 25x in 18 posts
I usually use a loose version of the traditional lineup, keeping OBP vs LHP/RHP in mind.

I sometimes will try sabermetric or exotic lineups against elite SP's. That is because, IMO, the traditional lineup is meant to try to generate big innings against normal or poor pitching. You won't often see the likes of a Sandy Koufax or a Roy Halladay go through more than 6 batters in one inning. So I feel I'm better off mixing and matching a bit more and hoping to bring in a run or two through small-ball, hit-and-run, a lucky homer or capitalizing on a possible defensive mistake.

It's personal preference, but I don't put the pitcher in the 8-spot often. If the pitcher is a horrible hitter and a horrible bunter, I might do it. But I'm usually content to leave the pitcher in the 9-spot, in the hopes he can bunt to move the runner(s) along. I've also tried putting a decent OBP in the 8-spot, to try to ensure my pitcher has someone to bunt along.

At end of the day, it doesn't matter all that much. If you are in early/middle innings and there are runners on base with 2 out and your pitcher comes up to bat, whether in the 8th or 9th spot, you are pretty much SOL at that point.

The one constant is that my leadoff man MUST have high speed, high SB rating and high contact.
neugey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 02:28 PM   #8 (permalink)
Hall Of Famer
 
fhomess's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 3,107
Thanks: 71
Thanked 551x in 258 posts
I always go with the fhomess lineup.
__________________
StatsLab- PHP/MySQL based utilities for Online Leagues
Other Mods:
StatsLab11
19th Century: Schedules, FaceGen
BBCards: Full list of known templates
- My Cards:1887 Allen & Ginter, T-206 White Border, 1934 Goudey, 1952 Topps, 1988 Score, 1996 fhomess, 2005 fhomess
FaceGen: 1960-Pres MLB, 32 Colleges, Backgrounds

PEBA - Connecticut Nutmeggers
fhomess is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 03:00 PM   #9 (permalink)
All Star Reserve
 
Marberi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Puebla, Mexico
Posts: 507
Thanks: 113
Thanked 149x in 126 posts
I always use my gut feeling with my lineups and I don't even make many changes based on L/R splits. So I'll always lean in favor of traditional, standard lineups.

Formula's worked for me this way, so I've never cared that much for sabermetrics. As alternative stats, they're cool IMO, but not much more than that.
Marberi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 06:40 PM   #10 (permalink)
Hall Of Famer
 
Carlton's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 3,206
Thanks: 254
Thanked 200x in 144 posts
Infractions: 0/2 (2)
Since Sabermetric is not used in MLB, one cannot debunk it...but it might be.

That link reeked of condescention of a method that players and mangers used 50+ years tweaking to come up with an optimal lineup, to say there is another way is good. To say the old way is laughable like that writer did is derogatory to the greats of the game.

The part one cannot derive from the saber lineup is HOW the pitcher and opposing team will face them and what pitches they will throw.

So say you do put Pujols batting first, he will see a totally different pitch selection than he does now and how that would effect his performance is the unknown variable.

If I was a manager of a team like the Astros, would I use the saber method? Absolutely, there is nothing to lose and it might work, I just feel that it might not have the impact that some of the stats guys think

Last edited by Carlton; 05-11-2011 at 06:41 PM.
Carlton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 07:37 PM   #11 (permalink)
All Star Starter
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Toronto, ON
Posts: 1,313
Thanks: 1,297
Thanked 353x in 239 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlton View Post
Since Sabermetric is not used in MLB, one cannot debunk it...but it might be.

That link reeked of condescention of a method that players and mangers used 50+ years tweaking to come up with an optimal lineup, to say there is another way is good. To say the old way is laughable like that writer did is derogatory to the greats of the game.

The part one cannot derive from the saber lineup is HOW the pitcher and opposing team will face them and what pitches they will throw.

So say you do put Pujols batting first, he will see a totally different pitch selection than he does now and how that would effect his performance is the unknown variable.

If I was a manager of a team like the Astros, would I use the saber method? Absolutely, there is nothing to lose and it might work, I just feel that it might not have the impact that some of the stats guys think
I don't think anyone in either of the "camps" would advocate hitting Pujols in the leadoff spot because you're wasting his slugging ability there. 2nd or 4th is more likely from the geeks (I consider myself a proud, though hopefully not condescending one), while 3rd would be the choice of the traditionalists. In order to truly pooch a lineup, you have to do some really asinine stuff like putting John McDonald (hate to use him as an example because his defense is spellbinding) anywhere near the top of the order. Oh crap, somebody started him in the leadoff spot once (Why Cito?...Why?), and in the #2 spot 14 times (at least five by Cito...Ugh). Or, you know, lead off with your pitcher and other wacky stuff like that. I don't think the traditional or sabermetric approach are all that far apart when you tot things up over the course of 162 games, but I would give a slight edge to the sabermetric approach, based on the work done by Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin in "The Book".

What really chafes me is the whole Scouts vs Stats false dichotomy that exploded with Michael Lewis' (or Billy Beane's in Joe Morgan Land) book "Moneyball". The reality is that teams need a blending of both in order to succeed, along with a whole bunch of other ingredients like development, coaching staffs, training staffs, psych evaluations (so they can spot the drama queens [not mentioning any names here ] before investing in them), proper nutrition, housing, facilities and equipment in the minors and on and on. All of these things can provide an edge in a strong organization. You can't just open up your laptop, pull out some spreadsheets and sign/acquire guys based on numbers. I think Lewis' intent was to set up some sort of villain/hero drama to sell more books, but it did some damage and created quite an unnecessary rift between the two "sides".

Probably a more even handed approach to a behind the scenes look at everything that goes into putting a good organization is Jonah Keri's "The Extra 2%". It's about how the Tampa Bay Rays went from worst to first on a shoestring (in comparison with the resources of their divisional rivals). I haven't read it, but I doubt it will ruffle as many feathers in the game.

Last edited by actionjackson; 05-11-2011 at 07:40 PM.
actionjackson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2011, 11:29 PM   #12 (permalink)
Minors (Double A)
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 177
Thanks: 54
Thanked 25x in 21 posts
For me since, its all about conditioning. My youth was filled with late 70's-80's ball so I am conditioned to like the classic small ball lineup method. I guess you can equate it to knuckleball pitching....I dont know how it works but it does.
95Marinerschangedmylife is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2011, 11:25 AM   #13 (permalink)
All Star Starter
 
redmarkYankees's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,277
Thanks: 2
Thanked 35x in 24 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlton View Post
Since Sabermetric is not used in MLB, one cannot debunk it...but it might be.

That link reeked of condescention of a method that players and mangers used 50+ years tweaking to come up with an optimal lineup, to say there is another way is good. To say the old way is laughable like that writer did is derogatory to the greats of the game.

The part one cannot derive from the saber lineup is HOW the pitcher and opposing team will face them and what pitches they will throw.

So say you do put Pujols batting first, he will see a totally different pitch selection than he does now and how that would effect his performance is the unknown variable.

If I was a manager of a team like the Astros, would I use the saber method? Absolutely, there is nothing to lose and it might work, I just feel that it might not have the impact that some of the stats guys think
I've read quite a lot of their stuff recently (not visited the link given here, not sure if it's one I've read or not). What most of them actually say is that lineup order makes only a marginal difference and that the "traditional" lineup is actually very close to optimal, generally - barring extremes of managers playing quick runners with poor OBP at the top of the lineup.

A caveat given in all of the good analyses is that their simulations don't account for speed and baserunning; which may be a rather significant flaw.
__________________
In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act.
George Orwell
redmarkYankees is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2011, 07:36 PM   #14 (permalink)
Minors (Single A)
 
Doctor No's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 99
Thanks: 52
Thanked 8x in 8 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by RchW View Post
I'm interested in what sabermetric evaluation has your 5th best hitter batting 3rd.
"Baseball Between The Numbers" goes into this a bit - it's (allegedly) because your #4 hitter is most likely to lead off the second inning, so you want a good hitter there.
Doctor No is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2011, 11:11 PM   #15 (permalink)
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 814
Thanks: 40
Thanked 124x in 86 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlton View Post
That link reeked of condescention of a method that players and mangers used 50+ years tweaking to come up with an optimal lineup, to say there is another way is good.
It's nice to think that baseball strategy has continuously evolved and improved over the last 100 years, but it's just not true. In many ways, over the last 30 years, it's devolved. It's nice to see some progress offensively, but pitching might be stuck in it's current rut for a long time.
ike121212 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2011, 05:11 AM   #16 (permalink)
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 817
Thanks: 33
Thanked 71x in 57 posts
Going back to the original post, this is what it says about saber vs. traditional lineups in the manual:

Quote:
  • Traditional - The AI will choose lineups using traditional theory, which factors in both player ratings and L/R split ratings.
  • Sabermetric (Splits Favored) - The AI will choose lineups based on Sabermetric theory, which uses exclusively L/R split data to make decisions.
A couple points based on this brief and opaque description:

1) It appears that the salient difference between the two is that the "Traditional" setting uses "player ratings" AND "L/R split ratings," while the saber setting uses ONLY "L/R split ratings."

I assume that in using splits, they take the handedness of the starting pitcher and use the batters' ratings for that handedness to set the lineup. What does "player ratings" mean here then? Is this referring to the "Other" ratings like speed and baserunning, bunting, and Pull/Spray? I've only used the saber setting for the AI in my leagues, so I don't know what the "traditional" lineup strategy looks like in the game.

2) As far as determining hitters' spot in the lineup according to hitting ability and skills, the "sabermetric" setting DOES NOT use the guidelines that the OP specified. Or, at least it does not use them consistently. This is kind of how I think it works based on AI suggestions I've seen over the years:

1. Best Speed/Steal combo that's not one of #3-5.
2. 4th best hitter, emphasis on contact
3. Best hitter, emphasis on contact (based on AI assessment of ratings and recent performance)
4. Best hitter, emphasis on power
5. 3rd best hitter
6. 4th best hitter, emphasis on power
7. Best remaining hitter
8. Ditto
9. Ditto

In short, the "saber" setting more closely resembles how the OP defines traditional lineup strategy than what is described as sabermetric as defined by researchers who have done lineup optimization studies. The most telling signs that it's more "traditional" than truly "sabermetric" is that: a) the #3 slot ALWAYS goes to the best hitter in the lineup; and b) the leadoff spot often goes to a low OBP hitter who has high speed/steal ratings.

So what is the actual difference between the two settings? I really don't know. I guess I might play around with lineups a bit. If anyone has empirical evidence of what the difference really is or can explain the manual's definition, I'd love to hear it.

Edit: I tested the AI's recommendations for lineups for three teams (including my own) under the "sabermetric" and "traditional" settings. The difference that I noticed is that the "traditional" setting takes L/R splits into account very little if at all. So if your best overall hitter, who happens to be left-handed, is markedly weaker vs. LHP, in the "traditional" setting, he'll still bat #3 or #4, while under the "sabermetric" setting, he might get bumped well down in the order. The "sabermetric" AI lineup setting appears to boil down to use of L/R splits. Again, there is no implementation of a true "sabermetric" lineup optimization. This should be addressed in v12, with glaring things like Juan Pierre-like speedy guys with bad OBP batting leadoff changed up in favor of a high OBP batter, whether or not he's a fast runner or good base stealer. This is important because this AI setting determines the lineup strategy for all the teams in the league other than your own, which means if AI teams have one of their worst hitters getting the most plate appearances, as is often the case, the human player is at a great advantage. A "sabermetric" setting should level the playing field against the human player by utilizing some well-validated optimization strategy like the one in the OP, but as it stands, it does nothing of the sort.
__________________


Last edited by Qwerty75; 05-13-2011 at 05:49 AM. Reason: Tested my assumptions and reported my findings
Qwerty75 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2011, 05:57 AM   #17 (permalink)
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 817
Thanks: 33
Thanked 71x in 57 posts
To sum up my previous post:

In the game, the "sabermetric" AI lineup strategy setting is merely the "traditional" strategy that has been discussed here but going by L/R splits instead of the aggregate.

This needs to be fixed.
__________________


Last edited by Qwerty75; 05-13-2011 at 05:58 AM.
Qwerty75 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2011, 10:02 AM   #18 (permalink)
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 308
Thanks: 68
Thanked 26x in 20 posts
I am going to do some reading on this subject. It is interesting to look at something simple like a lineup from a different perspective.

Although IIRC, my original question was whether anyone has used a sabermetric lineup for their team and contrasted the OOTP performance with their original traditional team lineup?

Last edited by Jagger; 05-13-2011 at 10:04 AM.
Jagger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2011, 10:19 AM   #19 (permalink)
Bat Boy
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 9
Thanks: 2
Thanked 0x in 0 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by actionjackson View Post
What really chafes me is the whole Scouts vs Stats false dichotomy that exploded with Michael Lewis' (or Billy Beane's in Joe Morgan Land) book "Moneyball".
Always makes me laugh that Morgan is so anti-sabermetrics when, as a hitter, he was an on-base machine. Not like Dave Kingman or Rob Deer knocking OBP!
ajcrible is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2011, 11:32 AM   #20 (permalink)
Minors (Double A)
 
neugey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 113
Blog Entries: 39
Thanks: 24
Thanked 25x in 18 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by ajcrible View Post
Always makes me laugh that Morgan is so anti-sabermetrics when, as a hitter, he was an on-base machine. Not like Dave Kingman or Rob Deer knocking OBP!
I saw this quote on OOTP by the former Rangers player Toby Harrah ...

"Baseball stats are like a girl in a bikini. They show you a lot, but they don't show you everything."
neugey is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:42 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Friendly URLs by vBSEO 3.6.1
Copyright © 2013 Out of the Park Developments