Question on draft scouting accuracy

[anon]

I'm new to the game and I'm trying to get a sense for how accurate the scouting is. If I draft a kid with all the tools and bring him along at the right pace is it pretty much a lock he will be a great player? Are there ever any complete busts? Conversely, are there ever any 15th round picks who develop into studs.

Not sure how many are familiar with it, but I thought Sammy Sosa High Heat Baseball 2003 did a great job with this (i.e., have some life-like variability).

Thanks in advance.

[Qwerty75]

Originally Posted by anon

I'm new to the game and I'm trying to get a sense for how accurate the scouting is. If I draft a kid with all the tools and bring him along at the right pace is it pretty much a lock he will be a great player? Are there ever any complete busts? Conversely, are there ever any 15th round picks who develop into studs.

Not sure how many are familiar with it, but I thought Sammy Sosa High Heat Baseball 2003 did a great job with this (i.e., have some life-like variability).

Thanks in advance.

There will be a lot of error in the scouting system for amateurs even with a great scouting director and a lot of money earmarked for this part of scouting. I sometimes split the difference between my scouting director's ratings and OSA's ratings to account for possible scouting error in this part of the game. Your own scouting director's ratings are more reliable for other facets of scouting if he has great ratings and you spend a good amount.

As far as development goes, a 1st-rounder isn't a lock to develop to his full potential, and there are a good number of late-round picks that develop into starters or better. That said, you can control the development of your best prospects in part by making sure they get a lot of playing time at appropriate levels (monitoring ratings and statistical performance) and by hiring good managers and coaches in the minors and majors (development as a young big-leaguer with the latter). With the late-round picks, it's usually a case of the talent-change engine making a prospect out of a non-prospect, so it's a gift that you don't control. However, it's a good idea to target players with good Intelligence and Work Ethic ratings, as they influence player development. I personally find that players with higher Intelligence may be more likely to get unforeseen talent increases, but I don't have any solid proof of this connection. Work Ethic is established to help players increase actual ratings toward potentials during the offseason.