Harry Heilmann - .526 hitter on June 1st!

[andreglenn]

I've happily rediscovered OOTP with V11. However, after simming multiple seasons, I've hit a clunker.

I'm simming the 1927 season and Harry Heilmann wound up hitting .526 by June 1st. I know that Harry won multiple batting titles, and I know he hit .403 in 1923, and .398 in 1927, and .394 in 1921, but .526 on June 1st???!!!! Really? Really?

Its now August 1st and he hitting .454. I assume what the game is doing at this point is bringing him down to earth so that by the end of season his average is somewhere in the vicinity of the .398 that he put up in real-life. But .526 on June 1st is nowhere near realistic. Sounds like a bug somewhere in the game engine. I would think that there would be some kind of "sanity check" to prevent extreme performances like this.

The good news is that I've simmed other seasons in that era without seeing anyone else perform so far above the norm.

The closest to this that I've seen was actually a 2009 season in which Hanley Ramirez was hitting .512 on May 1st. But he settled down to .324 by July 1st, finishing at .310

[Gambo]

Originally Posted by andreglenn

I've happily rediscovered OOTP with V11. However, after simming multiple seasons, I've hit a clunker.

I'm simming the 1927 season and Harry Heilmann wound up hitting .526 by June 1st. I know that Harry won multiple batting titles, and I know he hit .403 in 1923, and .398 in 1927, and .394 in 1921, but .526 on June 1st???!!!! Really? Really?

Its now August 1st and he hitting .454. I assume what the game is doing at this point is bringing him down to earth so that by the end of season his average is somewhere in the vicinity of the .398 that he put up in real-life. But .526 on June 1st is nowhere near realistic. Sounds like a bug somewhere in the game engine. I would think that there would be some kind of "sanity check" to prevent extreme performances like this.

The good news is that I've simmed other seasons in that era without seeing anyone else perform so far above the norm.

The closest to this that I've seen was actually a 2009 season in which Hanley Ramirez was hitting .512 on May 1st. But he settled down to .324 by July 1st, finishing at .310

The game isn't bringing him down to a realistic number but rather the law of percentages is kicking in. The game won't adjust performance to match statistics, it only goes by what the ratings are.

Likely what happened is he had multiple hot streaks during the early season.

In the real world in 1923 Heilman's batting average on May 1st was .509 (.531 after 4/31 game) it was .513 on 5/15 by June 1st he dropped to .430.

So your number of .526 on June 1st in 1927 is not toooo far off of .513 on 5/15 in 1923. It's a difference of .013 points over 15 days. Hitting over .500 for a two week period is not totally out of reach.

[andreglenn]

According to Baseball-Reference.com Heilmann did indeed hit .531 by May 1st, but they only played 13 games in April 1923.

But by June 1st he was hitting .419, not .430 and certainly not .526.

Hitting .419 on June 1st versus hitting .526 on June 1st is pretty far off in my book. Maybe baseball-reference.com has the figures wrong.

According to them, by August 1st, he was hitting .392, finishing at .398

[risp2out]

HH had 124 ABs through the end of May (147 PAs) in 1923.

The difference between .526 and .419 is 13 hits. Doesn't seem unbelievably far off. I don't know how many games had been played by June 1st '27 in your game or how many of those he'd been in or how many PAs and ABs he had, but if it's in the neighborhood of 124, there's the comparison.

[Chicagofan76]

Andre if u r looking for an exact replay of what they did u need to search for a new game.

I just read all of your threads u have picked this game apart like someone going over his clothes his a magnifying glass looking for stray threads.

I have played 2 historical leagues on here since July in neither of them do i have even 90% accuracy to real MLB, and i like it that way.

just seems to be u r nitpicking it way to much.

[andreglenn]

Actually, I'm not nitpicking and I think OOTP is a great game. In none of my posts that you refer to do you see me saying that I don't like OOTP or do you see me shilling for a competitor.

I'm simply trying to be of help by pointing out things that I think can easily be tweaked to make it an even better game. For all I know, the things that I've pointed out might actually be things that slipped through the cracks. I'm trying to be helpful. I thought that's what these forums were for.

You overstate the contents of my other posts with your accusation that I have picked the game apart. I've done no such thing. Nor do I desire to.

I've been designing and writing both UI and backend software for over 25 years. I've also spent over a decade doing Web design. I can show you what picking an app apart is. What I've done is not in that category.

If it offends people on these forums for me to try to be of assistance in such a manner, then I won't bother. As mentioned in my other posts that you refer to, I state that none of the things that I've pointed out are earth-shattering or a big deal and that I'm only trying to help make a great game better.

Nitpicking would be complaining about the fonts, or the colors, or something else insignificant. What you're basically saying that if you bring up an issue and its not a fatal error in the game, then its "nitpicking".

I'm not looking for an exact replay. If I were looking for that, I would just go to Retrosheet and read the PBP files.

It seems that every time someone on this forum points out what they think is something in the game that could be tweaked, they get accused of wanting an "exact replay". As in: "Oh, ignore that guy. He's one of those exact replay guys that just don't get it". Well, that's not me. I'm not looking for Teddy Ballgame to hit .406 in a 1941 replay. I think its within reason to ask a question if he hits .286 though.

I don't really see the point of forums such as these if people are going to be insulted and belittled.

Do some people nitpick? Sure.
Do some people come to these forums with hidden agendas and try to disparage OOTP in favor of a competitor? Sure.
Can you usually tell that from a mile away? Yes, and you ignore those people's posts if they bug you so much. If they get out of control, the Forum Admin will ban them.

Someone might actually have something of value to add and you might find it to be nitpicking but someone else might not. So why discourage someone from posting by insulting them?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by andreglenn

Actually, I'm not nitpicking and I think OOTP is a great game. In none of my posts that you refer to do you see me saying that I don't like OOTP or do you see me shilling for a competitor.

I'm simply trying to be of help by pointing out things that I think can easily be tweaked to make it an even better game. For all I know, the things that I've pointed out might actually be things that slipped through the cracks. I'm trying to be helpful. I thought that's what these forums were for.

OK how do we prevent an outlier from hitting 0.526 on June 1? What are Heilmann's ratings? Are they significantly above even the best players? I'd submit that the bug may be in the translated ratings and not the game engine. Gambo correctly pointed out that the game does not adjust performance so a fairly simple deduction is that Heilmann's ratings are too good.

Can you post a screen shot of Heilmann and perhaps another top player for comparison of their ratings?

[andreglenn]

Ah, that makes sense. Ratings....That's why I posted this item in the first place. I figured that this phenomenon might be something that other people had encountered before and would have some useful insight on.

Yes, it would make sense that a player would perform better (or worse) than expected due to how his Ratings are set. (In addition to the normal randomness that makes someone perform slightly better or worse in simulations. That's why we run multiple sims and take the average. My Duh)

Since Harry performed similarly in 1923 (though in 124 ABs as opposed to the 198 ABs in my 1927 sim), maybe it truly is just a case of Harry having a very good year.

Either way, my intention was not to make this big a deal out of this.

As requested by RchW, here's Harry, Lou Gehrig, Paul Waner, and Rogers Hornsby. The first three are having very good years and have similar ratings for Contact and Gap. Hornsby is having a terrible year, hitting .276 when he hit .361 in reality. The only thing of note is that his Gap rating is slighty lower than that of those other three guys.

FYI, Rogers hit .403 in 1925, .317 in 1926, and .387 in 1928. So maybe this .276 number in the 1927 Sim is in line with his 1926 performance as opposed to his actual 1927 performance and the other surrounding years.


Thanks everyone...

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[RchW]

I assume this is a 20 point scale. We can't tell much when they all show 20 on ratings. The scale doesn't stop there however. Go to Game setup and on the first tab 4th from the bottom say "yes" to show ratings greater than max.

Does Harry have higher ratings than the others?

I forgot to mention ratings work both ways. If pitcher ratings are down, then BA and all offensive results will go up. Another thing to check is the league BA OBP etc vs real life 1927. If numbers are up that could explain Heilmann's numbers

I don't play historical or real players so I don't know how one can determine if you have issues with translated ratings.

[andreglenn]

Harry's ratings are:

Type Ov vsLH vsRH Poten
Contact 22 23 21 23
Gap 20 21 20 21

Gehrig's are:
Contact 22 19 23 22
Gap 23 19 24 23

Hornsby:
Contact 18 21 17 20
Gap 13 15 12 13

I don't see much of anything there. I''ll just chalk it up to Harry having a great year and we can put this to rest.

At season's end, the Historical Simulation Accuracy tab says that the overall BA was down -2.0%. The AL OBA was down -2.14%.
(FYI Harry finished at .440 with 262 hits, and a 39 game hitting streak)


Thanks for the ideas

[majesty95]

I think one thing that is being lost here is it was ONE season. Even if Ted Williams hit .286 in 1941, that doesn't mean something is wrong with the game. If he hit .286 on average over 100 simulations of the same season, then there would be a problem.

I think .440 is high and maybe unrealistic. However, there are many things that can account for that.

I'm not particularly pointing at Andre, but I feel many people on here see a one season swoon from RL and think something is amiss. You can flip a coin and get heads five times in a row. Does that mean the coin is bad? Its just randomness and over a larger sample things tend to balance out...

[JohnMcGraw]

Originally Posted by andreglenn

(FYI Harry finished at .440 with 262 hits, and a 39 game hitting streak)

Thanks for the ideas

Considering all the people running historical replays its not suprising at all that someone would report a monster season like this. In fact, its inevitable, in my opinion. The guy DID hit .39-something that year. Its like a .280 hitting catching every break and hitting .330. Jorge Posada did that one year.