Suggestions for the pitching system

[injury log]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

Right now the game ignores a player like Maddux's stamina, ability to pitch 200+ innings

This is nonsense. Maddux could pitch 200+ innings because he was, by a completely absurd margin, the most pitch-efficient pitcher in modern history.

Pitches Saved Since 1988, Or Greg Maddux Is A Wizard - Beyond the Box Score

When you walk no one, and get people out on one, two or three pitches in a lot of at bats, you can pitch a lot of innings because you aren't throwing many pitches. I mean, we're talking about a guy who threw a complete game with only 76 pitches. You don't need amazing stamina for that.

[CalvinHobbes]

Stamina shouldn't even be an issue. How many times have you heard the term "stretch him out". I think that any pitcher can throw 100 pitches if he works up to it. The difference between a starter and reliever is:

1. A starter really needs three pitches to be able to get hitters out three or more times through an order. Or one ++ pitch and an offspeed.
2. A starter can keep his velocity through 80 pitches. Like Verlander, who's still throwing 100 in the ninth inning as he did in the no hitter against Toronto this year.

So the only reason to keep a stamina rating is for item number 2 above. Somehow tie it in to that.

[Getch]

Just remember that this is a game to be used by the public, so any system has to be understandable to the majority of people. So, someone may come up with a most realistic simulation of starters vs relievers, but if only a few people can understand it, it makes the game less enjoyable to play

Really, what it seems to be from my own limited knowledge is that some pitchers can "amp it up" when they know they only have to get 3 batters out. When they know they can throw as hard as possible, they become extremely effective. When they have to dial it back to be able to last longer innings, they become ineffective.

Many closers and relievers (my avatar to the left being an example) just weren't nearly as effective as starters as they were as closers. Why? Not because of stamina, or the number of pitches, or control, etc. It just seemed that they could really put a lot more on the ball when they know they only have to throw 20 pitches.

How to simulate that in OOTP? I haven't a clue.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

First let me start by saying I realize what I am going to suggest is a complete overhual of pitching and there are a lot of other priorites out there. Now, I have been thinking about after discussions of pitchers learning new pitches and I think there is a lot of room for improvement.

Current system
4 broad pitch categories
1. Fastball includes sliders, 4 seam, 2 seam etc.
2. Curveball includes sinkers, splitters, normal curves
3. Changeup all non-breaking ball offspeed pitches.
4. Knuckleball

For starters a pitcher needs 3 quality pitches. Stuff is determined by the best 3 pitches. So currently whether you are a SP or MR is judged solely by stuff. Stamina no longer seems to matter and control or movement have nothing to do with whether the AI places a pitcher as SP or MR.

For Bullpen guys stuff is determined by your top 2 pitches. So a 2 pitch pitcher will not have the stuff to be a SP.

Problem
Stuff is the ability to get Ks. Therefore whether or not you can start depends solely on the ability to get strikeouts. The system ignores movement and control. Therefore a guy more like Greg Maddux may never become a SP. The AI will never choose a high movement, high control guy, with low stuff as a SP in the majors. So you don't get the classic no walks, few Ks, lots of contact for outs type pitcher. So guys who could thrive at place let Petco park and get shelled in the juice box just don't make it.

Proposed system
SP's stuff is based only on 2 pitches. Really a starter just needs types of fastballs and and types of offspeed pitches those can be a curve or a changeup he really does not need both. What makes a SP a SP is weighted combination of stamina, stuff, movement, and control. Perhaps stamina must be above X to even be considered. That way you can have the lots of contact low hits low K guys who look good in front of a top notch defense and fall apart in front of a bad one thrive.

Reliever stuff is based on best pitch. Considering these are broad categories and not really individual pitches but a representation of a range of pitches, this makes sense. Brad Lidge has survived on a fastball and slider as his offspeed which are both in the fastball category. A reliever who pitches one or 2 innings can get by with one pitch category. A starter really needs an decidated offspeed pitch to keep hitters off balance after the first round through the lineup.

What this would do I believe is create a lot more borderline SP and long releif guys to fill the MR roles. It would also make what makes a SP more realistic.

I'm not seeing any of this in my league especially the bold part. Not sure what is different about your league compared to mine. FWIW I have not tweaked any player creation settings etc. In other words my game is pretty much default except for league total modifiers and trade settings.

Went through every MLB team in my league sorted by starters and then by bullpen. I use the 1-20 scale, on that scale 12 is a green number and 11 is a yellow number. I had two rotations in my league that had 3 green numbered or better SP for stuff. Quite a few teams had 2 and a few had only one with one team all SP's with a yellow stuff number IE all starters with stuff 12 or less.

I play against teams with young Ps coming out of the pen with 15 stuff 12 movement 13 control and 18 stamina and I think huh? How are these young guys not starting? Look at the rotation and I find a vet that is 8 stuff 17 movement 18 control and 12 stamina. Ok, he's waiting for the vet to fold. I am sometimes concerned that these young guys should actually be starting above some of these vets but then that is always a question IRL too.

In the end scanning all of my MLB rotations stamina appears to be very important in SP selection. I don't see anyone with great stuff and stamina below 10 in a rotation unless it is by necessity, that is he is the best choice the AI has and is the same way I would more than likely set it up.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by injury log

This is nonsense. Maddux could pitch 200+ innings because he was, by a completely absurd margin, the most pitch-efficient pitcher in modern history.

Pitches Saved Since 1988, Or Greg Maddux Is A Wizard - Beyond the Box Score

When you walk no one, and get people out on one, two or three pitches in a lot of at bats, you can pitch a lot of innings because you aren't throwing many pitches. I mean, we're talking about a guy who threw a complete game with only 76 pitches. You don't need amazing stamina for that.

Still the point is right now a guy with Maddux like ratings in a fictional league becomes a reliever because he stuff is not good enough. You find plenty of guys that have low movement or control but good stuff starting but a guy with 3 bad pitches (meaning not many K) gets low stuff and is shuffled to the bullpen. I have seen guys on a 20 scale with very good movement and control but only 5 to 8 stuff and the AI every time places them in the bullpen even if they have decent stamina.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by CalvinHobbes

Stamina shouldn't even be an issue. How many times have you heard the term "stretch him out". I think that any pitcher can throw 100 pitches if he works up to it.

Yes and you can stretch out a low stamina pitcher in the game and risk big innings because he is less effective being tired. If stamina were not an issue Dotel would not have been moved from SP to CL by the Astros. The guy would wear out the 5th inning lose his velocity and start giving up runs. Wagner and Gagne were not moved to CL from SP because they did not have stuff. They were moved because they tired too quickly. A lot of guys are slotted as closers early because they don't have the stamina to be effective after 4 innings. Dotel is the prime example. He could pitch about 4 innings well then he was out of gas and the hits started coming.

Sure anyone can pitch 100 but not every pitcher can still be effective on the 90th to 100th pitch some guys have the wheels fall off after 4 innings. Another good example was Woddy Williams in his last year of playing. I watched the guy pitch his stuff and control were as good ever. Why did he retire? He ran out of gas in the 5th almost every game. Smoltz moved to closer for similar reasons. He still had his stuff and control but not the stamina.

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I

Went through every MLB team in my league sorted by starters and then by bullpen. I use the 1-20 scale, on that scale 12 is a green number and 11 is a yellow number. I had two rotations in my league that had 3 green numbered or better SP for stuff. Quite a few teams had 2 and a few had only one with one team all SP's with a yellow stuff number IE all starters with stuff 12 or less.

I play against teams with young Ps coming out of the pen with 15 stuff 12 movement 13 control and 18 stamina and I think huh? How are these young guys not starting? Look at the rotation and I find a vet that is 8 stuff 17 movement 18 control and 12 stamina. Ok, he's waiting for the vet to fold. I am sometimes concerned that these young guys should actually be starting above some of these vets but then that is always a question IRL too.

In the end scanning all of my MLB rotations stamina appears to be very important in SP selection. I don't see anyone with great stuff and stamina below 10 in a rotation unless it is by necessity, that is he is the best choice the AI has and is the same way I would more than likely set it up.

I have seen it less low stamina SPs than in 11 so maybe some tweaks were there but still the evidence seems to support that less value is put on control and movement than stuff if any. Actually I think it is possible that it is less to do with stamina being important but rather player creation tweaks so you no long see 3 pitch pitchers with below 10 stamina. Come to think of it since the last patch of 11 I have not seen many if any low stamina 3 pitch guys in the draft they used to be common in early versions of 11. So I am not sure the AI is using stamina as a determinate or simply there are no 3 pitch pitchers with low stamina and the ability to make the bigs now.

As you noted almost all pitchers had at least 10 stuff. I actually have not found a team with a 8 stuff pitcher. My guess is that what has happened is the guy declined and he is refusing minor league assignments and the AI is not releasing him. Unfortunately, OOTP does not have the rules about how refusing minor assignments can lead to free agency.

The issue again is starter versus MR relies on how many quality pitches a guy has. There are plenty of crappy 4 pitch starters that will never start in the minors. You have to have 3 pitches two of which are quality. That quality of pitches makes up stuff. Therefore stuff is the main if not only determinate of a pitcher's ability to start. You have to have 3 good pitches to be a starter. That means you have to have decent stuff or the AI moves you to the bullpen despite good control and movement.

[Sweed]

Just throwing out some numbers of what I see in my league.

39 of 145 or 26.9% of SP have stuff less than 10 in my league. This excludes my team as we are talking about cpu teams. 8 of those are either 6 or 7 stuff.

16 0f 145 (11%) have stamina less than 10.

21 SP with stuff less than 10 that are 29 or younger. 4 more are 30 with stuff less than 10. Not sure where you would consider the cutoff for decline and minor league refusal would be but IMHO its not 29 for this many pitchers and probably not 30.

A few examples of SP in my league...

24 yrs with 7-16-9 & 20 stamina

27 yrs 8-12-10 & 16 stamina

28 7-14-12 & 16

26 8-14-12 & 14

27 9-12-13 & 15

27 8-11-13 &16

29 9-12-10 & 7

28 9-12-7 & 12

25 9-14-14 & 16

Sure, none of those guys in my list are quite like Maddux but then he is arguably one of the best ever. Give one of those guys 20 control and they could probably put up some Maddux type numbers however it would probably also require a movement rating also in the 16-20 range and any player in my league with ratings of 7-16-20 & 15 is going to be selected a SP providing he has 3 pitches. I don't think he's going to be skipped over due to a 7 stuff rating.

I don't see where 10 would be considered good stuff and make a guy more likely to be a SP. I certainly don't consider a 10 contact guy a good hitter and also I don't consider a guy with 10 stuff to very good either unless he supplements it with good movement or control, or better yet both.

I didn't take the time to type in all 21 of the pitchers 29 or younger. I do notice though that most of them with under 10 stuff do have at least one other number that is 14+ (movement, control, or stamina) and all of them have either a movement or control rating of 12.

In the end I think 10 is a bit of a low stuff rating. In my examples these guys counter the low stuff with a combo of better movement and control ratings and for the most part have good stamina.

Certainly not arguing things can't be improved. Not sure what the answer is for the current quasi requirement of 3 pitches for a SP unless a guy is very exceptional. I'm only saying I don't think SP are being selected based on stuff either exclusively or even with more weight than any other attribute.

Just reread you post and want to add that based on your statement

I actually have not found a team with a 8 stuff pitcher.

I think our leagues are vastly different and because of the way your league is rated you see a problem that I don't. My league has very few P both SP and RP with very high stuff. 16+ is rare in my league. Many teams have rotations with 1 or 2 guys at 13-15 stuff with the rest pretty much 11 or below. So while in my league a low stuff guy (one cpu team in my game has a 5 stuff SP) is for the most part between 7-9 that same P in your league may be 10-12? In the end you see a problem I don't because our leagues have developed differently? I don't know.


OOTP leagues can develop in many ways and it makes it hard for Markus to read a thread like this and come up with the "right" answer. Even more difficult for us as anything we suggest is based only on what we see in our leagues.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

As you noted almost all pitchers had at least 10 stuff. I actually have not found a team with a 8 stuff pitcher.

You also won't find players in your league with 8 Contact ratings. It's because they aren't good enough to play in the Majors, not because there's some game problem. I don't know why you'd expect to find players in the Majors with horrible ratings.

Originally Posted by Biggio509

The issue again is starter versus MR relies on how many quality pitches a guy has. There are plenty of crappy 4 pitch starters that will never start in the minors. You have to have 3 pitches two of which are quality. That quality of pitches makes up stuff. Therefore stuff is the main if not only determinate of a pitcher's ability to start. You have to have 3 good pitches to be a starter. That means you have to have decent stuff or the AI moves you to the bullpen despite good control and movement.

Stuff is *not* what determines if you can start, and I wish you'd stop repeating that in case someone actually believes you. To start, you need adequate Stamina and three adequate pitches. Give a guy 80/200 ratings in three pitches, a Stamina of 100/200 and a velocity of 86-88 mph and he will have bad Stuff and will be a perfectly capable SP. Give a guy 199/200 ratings in two pitches and 99-101 mph velocity and he'll have phenomenal Stuff and will be an incompetent starter.

Yes, it's true you don't find many pitchers with abysmal Stuff in the Majors, but you also don't find pitchers with abysmal Control or abysmal Movement. That's because those pitchers aren't good pitchers.

[RonCo]

Not that it matters, but realize that Greg Maddux--through the meat of his career--was a 7 K/9 pitcher. He was never a blazer, but his OOTP "stuff" rating should be quite high.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by injury log

To start, you need adequate Stamina and three adequate pitches. Give a guy 80/200 ratings in three pitches, a Stamina of 100/200 and a velocity of 86-88 mph and he will have bad Stuff and will be a perfectly capable SP. Give a guy 199/200 ratings in two pitches and 99-101 mph velocity and he'll have phenomenal Stuff and will be an incompetent starter.

This is helpful.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

Still the point is right now a guy with Maddux like ratings in a fictional league becomes a reliever because he stuff is not good enough.

I was just about to post what RonCo did above. Your assessment of Maddux is simply completely wrong. He was league average in K rate. From here:

Walk Like a Sabermetrician: Comments on Bill James Gold Mine 2010, pt. 2

"This is a point that the average fan still mystifyingly misses a great deal of the time. Take Greg Maddux for example. Maddux is apparently seen by some as a non-strikeout pitcher." etc.

[OutS|der]

Stamina over 50 out of 200 and having a 3rd pitch is what makes a SP in OOTP.
Stuff is *not* what determines if you can start in OOTP but it should be.
It shouldn't be stamina or number of pitches. Stamina should mean the pitch count or how long they can throw without losing control. Pitches should just be rated on skill and have no effect on the pitches role except to make one better sutied to the pitching role they have be it SP or RP.

I'm pretty sure a "closer" can throw many more then 2 pitches, They just don't cause don't have the skill for whatever reasons, be it cause they don't throw it often enough or it just isn't major league level worth.

"Give a guy 199/200 ratings in two pitches and 99-101 mph velocity and he'll have phenomenal Stuff and will be an incompetent starter"
No he won't be a starter at all, OOTP will make him a RP no matter what. Set his stamina to 255/200 and he would still only be a RP, but give him a 1 on any other pitch and he will then be a SP.

His role shouldn't be based on number of pitches or stamina. It should be based on his skill compared to your team.


When Smoltz became a closer did he forget how to throw for more then 2 pitchs or lose all his stamina? NO he did not, he was unable to perform effectively as a starter so he went into the bullpen.
That is what makes a pitcher a SP or a RP and that's how it should be in the game.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

When Smoltz became a closer did he forget how to throw for more then 2 pitchs or lose all his stamina? NO he did not, he was unable to perform effectively as a starter so he went into the bullpen.

Smoltz became a closer for awhile because Atlanta was afraid he would reinjure himself coming back. Making him a closer optimized his value while limiting his pitch count.

[RonCo]

He returned to the starting rotation four years later, and was effective to the tune of a 44-24 record over the next three years.

[RonCo]

I'm certain that if you chose to put an ace starter into the closer role for four seasons in OOTP, that they would perform pretty well.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by RonCo

I'm certain that if you chose to put an ace starter into the closer role for four seasons in OOTP, that they would perform pretty well.

And i'm certain if you put a RP who had 3 great pitches as a starter in OOTP he would do well as well, just be limited in his innings. I've made a player perfect in all ratings except stamina was low enough to make him a RP. He was my 5 starter, record was 18-4 or something i believe just had almost half the pitch count of the Ace.

It was more then just fear of injury that moved Smoltz to the bullpen, the point is what optimized his value while giving him a very low pitch count. He could of stayed the ace with a limited pitch count but he was better used as the closer. Rather then give him a pitch count that would limit him to say 5 innings he was better for the team to be the closer.

able to perform effectively is what gives the pitcher his role, if that means from the bullpen then that's where his pitches from.

In OOTP it's all about the stamina and number of pitches that determine the roles and that shouldn't be

[RonCo]

If you're arguing that stamina is poorly implemented in OOTP, I agree.

There is no fundamental reason that a guy with three great pitches shouldn't be able to stretch to a starter. That said, there are several guys with good pitches who have struggled in real life to get into and out of the 7th inning. If OOTP stopped using the labels "SP" and "RP" and "CL" and just called them all "P" the situation would probably feel better. But that said, I would agree that a pitcher's stamina should be a dynamic thing based on recent usage pattern and physical make-up.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Smoltz became a closer for awhile because Atlanta was afraid he would reinjure himself coming back. Making him a closer optimized his value while limiting his pitch count.

Originally Posted by OutS|der

It was more then just fear of injury that moved Smoltz to the bullpen, the point is what optimized his value while giving him a very low pitch count. He could of stayed the ace with a limited pitch count but he was better used as the closer. Rather then give him a pitch count that would limit him to say 5 innings he was better for the team to be the closer.

This is not true to my memory. I think Atlanta did not want to give him even 50 pitches in an outing at first--a limit that precluded him from being a starter at all. The idea was to use him as a closer for a limited time while he proved fit--but he was so good at it, and they built a good enough collection of starters around him, that they left him there even after injury concerns went away.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

In OOTP it's all about the stamina and number of pitches that determine the roles and that shouldn't be

I agree it should be about stamina, but stamina shouldd be dynamic and workable.

I agree it should be about a mixture of number _and quality_ of pitches. A Randy Johnson can dominate with two pitches because both were super-human. A guy with two merely good pitches is probably a 6-inning starter or a really effective reliever. A guy with two good pitches and a third show-me pitch raises his ability to get guys out through a third time through the lineup.

All of that is subjective, of course. But it's _my_ subjective!