Market Size and moving teams

[kevrock]

We are running a fictional online league with our teams in mostly small cities.

If teams relocate, how will that affect finances? What impact does a larger market size have budget? If all of our teams are in small markets and then one team moves to Boston, would that hose everything up?

[SteveP]

Don't know if this helps, but:

If a team "moves" from Peoria to Boston, the only significance for the game engine is that the team now has a different text string at the beginning of the team name. The game doesn't know Boston is a big market venue. You have to edit the market info to make it a bigger market than Peoria.

To generalize: any time you want the game to mirror market sizes that exist in the real world (that is, the text string "New York" is associated with more team revenue than the text string "Oakland") you have to do the editing to reflect these differences as best you can.

Just some info FWIW.

[The Wolf]

There's a nice market size list here:

US Markets (and 12+ population)

Which will also explain why that when I expanded the 2013 MLB by two teams that I put one of them in Portland and the other in Sacramento.

[Le Grande Orange]

Here's how MLB itself ranks its current markets, according to the 2012-16 CBA:

1. New York Yankees
1. New York Mets
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Los Angeles Angels
5. Chicago Cubs
5. Chicago White Sox
7. San Francisco Giants
7. Oakland Athletics
9. Toronto Blue Jays
9. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Boston Red Sox
12. Washington Nationals
13. Atlanta Braves
13. Texas Rangers
15. Houston Astros
16. Seattle Mariners
17. Detroit Tigers
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
19. Minnesota Twins
20. Baltimore Orioles
21. Colorado Rockies
22. San Diego Padres
23. Miami Marlins
24. Tampa Bay Rays
25. Cleveland Indians
26. St. Louis Cardinals
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Cincinnati Reds
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Milwaukee Brewers

There's no description of how those market rankings were determined. It certainly isn't just by statistical metropolitan area population, nor by designated media market size. I assume it's some combination of area population and club revenue over the past few years.

[Tram2Whitaker]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

Here's how MLB itself ranks its current markets, according to the 2012-16 CBA:

1. New York Yankees
1. New York Mets
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Los Angeles Angels
5. Chicago Cubs
5. Chicago White Sox
7. San Francisco Giants
7. Oakland Athletics
9. Toronto Blue Jays
9. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Boston Red Sox
12. Washington Nationals
13. Atlanta Braves
13. Texas Rangers
15. Houston Astros
16. Seattle Mariners
17. Detroit Tigers
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
19. Minnesota Twins
20. Baltimore Orioles
21. Colorado Rockies
22. San Diego Padres
23. Miami Marlins
24. Tampa Bay Rays
25. Cleveland Indians
26. St. Louis Cardinals
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Cincinnati Reds
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
30. Milwaukee Brewers

There's no description of how those market rankings were determined. It certainly isn't just by statistical metropolitan area population, nor by designated media market size. I assume it's some combination of area population and club revenue over the past few years.

It's probably sorted by how Bud Selig, Fox sports, and ESPN would like the revenues divided. For instance, the 2006 WS between Detroit and St. Louis was the "worst rated World Series ever". Before that, 2002's between Anaheim and St. Louis was the worst. No such complaints were lodged about this past years debacle between Detroit and San Fran....

However, on a more serious note: If one starts a MLB type season, are the actual markets accurately ranked? Like, for example, I started a game as the Houston Astros, whose market is classified as very small. I always thought Houston was a bigger market than say Detroit.

[Tram2Whitaker]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

There's a nice market size list here:

US Markets (and 12+ population)

Which will also explain why that when I expanded the 2013 MLB by two teams that I put one of them in Portland and the other in Sacramento.

I like this list, but how do you quantify this into a 1-20 rating? Do you give the market 1 pt. for every x amount of people? I've often found that if I give a team a ranking above 12, they show as ASTRONOMICAL.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by Tram2Whitaker

I like this list, but how do you quantify this into a 1-20 rating? Do you give the market 1 pt. for every x amount of people? I've often found that if I give a team a ranking above 12, they show as ASTRONOMICAL.

Personally, I stay within the 1-10 scale. I base it roughly on population, trying to keep a relatively even distribution around the midpoint, 5.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Tram2Whitaker

If one starts a MLB type season, are the actual markets accurately ranked?

No. When you create a new league, the market related ratings are totally derived from team payroll. You get a bunch of players on your roster. The game assigns salaries and contracts to those players based on individual value and presumed experience, so that similar players receive similar contracts. Then you have a starting payroll. The game will then create a market for you that can support that payroll. It doesn't matter where the team calls home.

If you want realistic markets, you have to edit the market ratings to reflect that. It can take several years (say five or so) for payrolls to reflect the adjusted markets. In the meantime, the AI can do some odd things if payroll is way out of line with the edited market. So, depending on how you want to approach things, you can adjust markets all at once or gradually.

I have found that in a historical league (say 60s to 80s), it's best to limit market size to a 2-10 scale. In a more current league, it seems that you can stretch the upper limit to 14 or 15. I think it may be a mistake to try to get payrolls to match what they are IRL today because they game doesn't try to duplicate all of the components of a team's financial world.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

There's no description of how those market rankings were determined. It certainly isn't just by statistical metropolitan area population, nor by designated media market size. I assume it's some combination of area population and club revenue over the past few years.

It looks like teams are given credit for an entire market zone enough if they share that zone with another team. I suppose that makes sense, depending on how they use these results. I have to believe that fan loyalty/enthusiasm is not a factor, but assumed to be a derivative benefit from how well a team exploits its potential market.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by Tram2Whitaker

I like this list, but how do you quantify this into a 1-20 rating? Do you give the market 1 pt. for every x amount of people? I've often found that if I give a team a ranking above 12, they show as ASTRONOMICAL.

This is how I do it, and I like the way it works...but it's your game, play it your way.

In OOTP text description major league market size terms, a 10 market size is huge, 9 is very big, 8 is big, 7 is rather big, 6 is above average, 5 is average, 4 is below average, 3 is small, 2 is tiny, 1 is minimal and 0 is nonexistent.

Notice that this sets up a competitive evenly-matched top tier (I flattened the top out for just that reason), defines Kansas City and Milwaukee as small market teams, establishes where the minimal/nonexistent market size boundary is and how it makes Portland and Sacramento obvious choices for the next two expansion slots.

NAME/OOTP MARKET SIZE

New York, NY 10
Los Angeles, CA 10
Chicago, IL 10
San Francisco, CA 10
Dallas, TX 10
Philadelphia, PA 10
Houston, TX 10
Washington, DC 10
Boston, MA 9
Detroit, MI 9
Atlanta, GA 9
Miami, FL 8
Seattle, WA 7
Phoenix, AZ 7
Minneapolis MN 6
San Diego, CA 6
Baltimore, MD 5
St. Louis, MO 5
Tampa, FL 5
Denver, CO 5
Pittsburgh, PA 5
Portland, OR 4
Cleveland, OH 4
Cincinnati, OH 4
Sacramento, CA 4
Riverside, CA 3
Kansas City, MO 3
San Antonio, TX 3
Salt Lake City, UT 3
San Jose, CA 3
Milwaukee, WI 3
Providence, RI 3
Columbus, OH 3
Middlesex, NJ 3
Charlotte, NC 3
Orlando, FL 3
Las Vegas, NV 3
Norfolk, VA 3
Indianapolis, IN 3
Austin, TX 2
Greensboro, NC 2
Raleigh, NC 2
Nashville, TN 2
New Orleans, LA 2
W.Palm Beach, FL 2
Memphis, TN 2
Hartford, CT 2
Jacksonville, FL 2
Monmouth, NJ 2
Buffalo, NY 2
Oklahoma City, OK 2
Rochester, NY 2
Louisville, KY 2
Richmond, VA 2
Birmingham, AL 2
Dayton, OH 2
Greenville, SC 1
Westchester, NY 1
Tucson, AZ 1
McAllen, TX 1
Honolulu, HI 1
Albany, NY 1
Tulsa, OK 1
Grand Rapids, MI 1
Ft. Myers, FL 1
Fresno, CA 1
Wilkes Barre, PA 1
Allentown, PA 1
Albuquerque, NM 1
Knoxville, TN 1
Akron, OH 1
Omaha, NE 1
Monterey, CA 1
El Paso, TX 1
Wilmington, DE 1
Sarasota, FL 1
Harrisburg, PA 1
Syracuse, NY 1
Springfield, MA 1
Toledo, OH 1
Baton Rouge, LA 1
Greenville, NC 1
Little Rock, AR 1
Bakersfield, CA 1
Stockton, CA 1
Gainesville, FL 1
Charleston, SC 1
Columbia, SC 1
Daytona Beach, FL 1
Des Moines, IA 1
Mobile, AL 1
Spokane, WA 1
Colorado Springs 1
Wichita, KS 1
Madison, WI 1
Melbourne, FL 1
Lakeland, FL 1
Lafayette, LA 1
Lexington, KY 1
Ft. Wayne, IN 1
Johnson City, TN 1
Visalia, CA 1
York, PA 1
Chattanooga, TN 1
Santa Rosa, CA 1
New Haven, CT 1
Augusta, GA 1
Morristown, NJ 1
Ft. Pierce, FL 1
Roanoke, VA 1
Worcester, MA 1
Youngstown, OH 1
Lancaster, PA 1
Oxnard, CA 1
Portsmouth, NH 1
Bridgeport, CT 1
Huntsville, AL 1
Boise, ID 1
Modesto, CA 1
Lansing, MI 1
Jackson, MS 1
Pensacola, FL 1
Ft. Collins, CO 1
Flint, MI 1
Reno, NV 1
Fayetteville, NC 1
Canton, OH 1
Saginaw, MI 1
Shreveport, LA 1
Beaumont, TX 1
Reading, PA 1
Victor Valley, CA 1
Corpus Christi, TX 1
Atlantic City, NJ 1
Appleton, WI 1
Biloxi, MS 1
Burlington, VT 1
Trenton, NJ 1
Stamford, CT 1
Davenport, IA 1
Peoria, IL 1
Newburgh, NY 1
Salisbury, MD 1
Springfield, MO 1
Ann Arbor, MI 1
Tyler, TX 1
Eugene, OR 1
Montgomery, AL 1
Fayetteville, AR 1
Rockford, IL 1
Killeen, TX 1
Flagstaff, AZ 1
Huntington, WV 1
Macon, GA 1
Palm Springs, CA 1
Utica, NY 1
Savannah, GA 1
Asheville, NC 1
Evansville, IN 1
Poughkeepsie, NY 1
Tallahassee, FL 1
Fredericksburg, VA 1
Portland, ME 1
Erie, PA 1
Myrtle Beach, SC 1
Wausau, WI 1
Hagerstown, MD 1
S. Luis Obispo, CA 1
New London, CT 1
South Bend, IN 1
Anchorage, AK 1
New Bedford, MA 1
Lincoln, NE 1
Ft. Smith, AR 1
Wilmington, NC 1
Binghamton, NY 1
Charleston, WV 1
Columbus, GA 1
Lubbock, TX 1
Cape Cod, MA 1
Kalamazoo, MI 1
Johnstown, PA 0
Tupelo, MS 0
Manchester, NH 0
Green Bay, WI 0
Odessa, TX 0
Merced, CA 0
Traverse City, MI 0
Topeka, KS 0
Dothan, AL 0
Amarillo, TX 0
Waco, TX 0
Danbury, CT 0
Chico, CA 0
Morgantown, WV 0
Yakima, WA 0
Frederick, MD 0
Santa Barbara, CA 0
Terre Haute, IN 0
Muncie, IN 0
Clarksville, TN 0
Duluth, MN 0
Santa Maria, CA 0
Olean, NY 0
Cedar Rapids, IA 0
Richland, WA 0
Bowling Green, KY 0
Florence, SC 0
Laredo, TX 0
Medford, OR 0
Bangor, ME 0
Elmira, NY 0
Champaign, IL 0
Alexandria, LA 0
Ft. Walton Bch, FL 0
Lake Charles, LA 0
Fargo, ND 0
St. Cloud, MN 0
Blacksburg, VA 0
Laurel, MS 0
Redding, CA 0
Charlottesville, VA 0
Winchester, VA 0
Muskegon, MI 0
Rochester, MN 0
Tuscaloosa, AL 0
Bryan, TX 0
Marion, IL 0
Pittsburg, KS 0
Abilene, TX 0
Dubuque, IA 0
Joplin, MO 0
Bloomington, IL 0
Santa Fe, NM 0
Lafayette, IN 0
Panama City, FL 0
Eau Claire, WI 0
Lima, OH 0
Wheeling, WV 0
Parkersburg, WV 0
Waterloo, IA 0
Meadville, PA 0
Elizabeth City, NC 0
Sussex, NJ 0
Pueblo, CO 0
Florence, AL 0
State College, PA 0
Monroe, LA 0
Columbia, MO 0
Wichita Falls, TX 0
Battle Creek, MI 0
Texarkana, TX- 0
Altoona, PA 0
Billings, MT 0
Columbus, MS 0
Grand Junction, CO 0
Williamsport, PA 0
Albany, GA 0
Augusta, ME 0
Sioux City, IA 0
Mankato, MN 0
Harrisonburg, VA 0
Sheboygan, WI 0
Rapid City, SD 0
Decatur, IL 0
Lawton, OK 0
Watertown, NY 0
Bluefield, WV 0
Lewiston, ME 0
San Angelo, TX 0
Ithaca, NY 0
Cookeville, TN 0
Bismarck, ND 0
Grand Forks, ND 0
Sebring, FL 0
Jackson, TN 0
Jonesboro, AR 0
Cheyenne, WY 0
Mason City, IA 0
Beckley, WV 0
Great Falls, MT 0
Meridian, MS 0
Brunswick, GA 0
Casper, WY 0

[The Wolf]

If you like, you can also use the unused 4 and 3 markets and the full 2, 1, and 0 size markets to assign out your various minor league levels/teams.

[GiantYankee]

What are the best settings to use that will minimize the movement or fluctuation of market size? Hate when I start a league with NY or LA have a high market size, sim 20-30 seasons, and find that it has dropped to 6 or 7.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

This is how I do it, and I like the way it works...but it's your game, play it your way.

In OOTP text description major league market size terms, a 10 market size is huge, 9 is very big, 8 is big, 7 is rather big, 6 is above average, 5 is average, 4 is below average, 3 is small, 2 is tiny, 1 is minimal and 0 is nonexistent.


NAME/OOTP MARKET SIZE

New York, NY 10
Los Angeles, CA 10
Chicago, IL 10

I disagree with both Chicago teams being a 10. It's very rare when the Sox outdraw the Cubs. I tend to put the Cubs at 9 and the White Sox at 6 or 7. Same with the Yankees/Dodgers/Giants & Mets, Phillies & A's, Dodgers & Angels.
Cubs fans come out no matter what their record, despite the fact they are often done by May 1st. Sox fans won't come out in April or May and won't come out after that unless they are winning.

Didn't know it could take up to 5 yrs to see effects of moving markets. I moved a team from a city with a population of 92,000 to a city of 192,000 and they have added payroll 12x faster in the last 4 yrs then they did the 1st 6 yrs in the smaller city. Many factors go into this then just city population I would imagine.

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by The Game

I disagree with both Chicago teams being a 10. It's very rare when the Sox outdraw the Cubs. I tend to put the Cubs at 9 and the White Sox at 6 or 7. Same with the Yankees/Dodgers/Giants & Mets, Phillies & A's, Dodgers & Angels.
Cubs fans come out no matter what their record, despite the fact they are often done by May 1st. Sox fans won't come out in April or May and won't come out after that unless they are winning.

This is incorrect. The market size for both team is exactly the same. What is different between the teams is two things: fan interest and fan loyalty, both of which are numerical values that are right above market size on each team's Options and Ballparks page. Different fan interest/fan loyalty settings will yield different results given the same market size. Don't conflate them.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by The Game

Didn't know it could take up to 5 yrs to see effects of moving markets.

Not the effect of moving a team from one city name to another city name. That has no effect.

If you edit all the teams in a league to get substantially different markets than the game created originally, it will take a few years for these changes to be reflected in team payrolls for all the teams. That is due to contract length, free agency restrictions, contract negotiations, etc. In time, the big market teams will have larger payrolls, etc.

It is not possible to predict what and when changes will occur for a specific team.

[The Game]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

This is incorrect. The market size for both team is exactly the same. What is different between the teams is two things: fan interest and fan loyalty, both of which are numerical values that are right above market size on each team's Options and Ballparks page. Different fan interest/fan loyalty settings will yield different results given the same market size. Don't conflate them.

Your right I have it wrong.

[Le Grande Orange]

Originally Posted by SteveP

It looks like teams are given credit for an entire market zone enough if they share that zone with another team. I suppose that makes sense, depending on how they use these results.

The common idea is to split the market for two-team cities in half, but studies have found that approach is not borne out by the data. Giving each club 70%-80% of the total market size yields better results, and some studies suggest no adjustment for two teams in a city needs to be made at all.

If you think about it, the latter two approaches make sense. Generally speaking, when two clubs are in the same city the schedule is arranged so that when one club is playing at home the other is on the road. That means each of the two clubs effectively has the city to itself when playing its home games, thus there is no direct competition between the two teams. It also gives baseball fans year-round baseball: in a one-team city fans can only attend ball games for half the season since for the other half the club is on the road. In a two-team city, there'll be games all season long since one of the two clubs will be playing home games. The result is more baseball attendance in that city than would otherwise be the case. This boost can be seen even in cases where a city has hosted two minor league clubs in the same season (e.g. Nashville in 1993-94). The amount of the boost, of course, depends on the relative popularity of each of the clubs.

[GMLoophole]

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

The common idea is to split the market for two-team cities in half, but studies have found that approach is not borne out by the data. Giving each club 70%-80% of the total market size yields better results, and some studies suggest no adjustment for two teams in a city needs to be made at all.

If you think about it, the latter two approaches make sense. Generally speaking, when two clubs are in the same city the schedule is arranged so that when one club is playing at home the other is on the road. That means each of the two clubs effectively has the city to itself when playing its home games, thus there is no direct competition between the two teams. It also gives baseball fans year-round baseball: in a one-team city fans can only attend ball games for half the season since for the other half the club is on the road. In a two-team city, there'll be games all season long since one of the two clubs will be playing home games. The result is more baseball attendance in that city than would otherwise be the case. This boost can be seen even in cases where a city has hosted two minor league clubs in the same season (e.g. Nashville in 1993-94). The amount of the boost, of course, depends on the relative popularity of each of the clubs.

I have never thought that "market size" IRL or in the game related solely to attendance levels.

As to attendance levels, I can't speak as to CHI but I can tell you that SF and NY attendance does not vary much based on whether or not the other team is at home at the same time. I recognize the general point that there are some casual fans who will say "let's go to a ballgame" regardless of who's playing, but even for tourists in SF and NY the two teams in each town (and their stadiums) are not seen as substitute goods.

[jaa36]

Originally Posted by GiantYankee

What are the best settings to use that will minimize the movement or fluctuation of market size? Hate when I start a league with NY or LA have a high market size, sim 20-30 seasons, and find that it has dropped to 6 or 7.

When the storylines option was first created, there was one that would give you something like a 5-point decrease in market size. I don't know if that was smoothed out, but unless someone can say otherwise, I'd recommend turning off story lines if you want market size to stay fairly constant.

[darkcloud4579]

GMEXcel - (Formerly MarketCalc)

I created a market size calculator for OOTP some years back and updated it last year. Still works great.