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OOTP 14 - General Discussions Discuss the new 2013 version of Out of the Park Baseball here!

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Old 06-07-2013, 01:57 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Okay, I'm sold on the new OOTP talent model

And this article

MLB Draft: The Hitchhiker's Guide - Beyond the Box Score

containing the analysis "after the top 50 picks, there is very little difference in the average return on value. However, the first 25 picks return massive amounts of value relative to the rest of the draft, and the top 10 serves as prime real estate for selection" did it. I'm convinced.

That's right. Before the second round is even finished we really are already into the dregs

And the hard data and amazing graphs backing that up from this article

The Baseball Analysts: Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

did it.

I will object to the new model no more.

I strongly recommend that every OOTP player read both.
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:03 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wolf View Post
And this article

MLB Draft: The Hitchhiker's Guide - Beyond the Box Score

containing the analysis "after the top 50 picks, there is very little difference in the average return on value. However, the first 25 picks return massive amounts of value relative to the rest of the draft, and the top 10 serves as prime real estate for selection" did it. I'm convinced.

That's right. Before the second round is even finished we really are already into the dregs

And the hard data and amazing graphs backing that up from this article

The Baseball Analysts: Draft Picks and Expected Wins Above Replacement

did it.

I will object to the new model no more.

I strongly recommend that every OOTP player read both.


I too was skeptical of the new talent model in OOTP14 during the first draft or two. However, after much thought and research, I found this new model to be closer to real life MLB Drafts.
Reading your post and articles included, it just re-assures me of my findings.
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:07 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Yes. They are undoubtedly correct. I hate it, but they are correct and so is the new model.

Reality doesn't care about what you think or hold dear. It just is.
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:25 PM   #4 (permalink)
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The data shows that the good players come from round 1. But there are good players from later rounds, just far more infrequent. What the data does not show is how the good players from later rounds are found. Is it pure luck, or is there some aspect of the player that causes him to be more successful? If the latter, is that aspect properly modeled in the new OOTP?

The first time this topic was brought up, I said I would wait and see how much fun it is before I decide for myself if I like it. I still plan to wait and see how much fun it is before I decide, whether it is more realistic or not. It will take several game years, i.e. real-life weeks, for me to see the development (or lack of) of the newly-created mediocre draftees.

I do like the fact that I can auto-draft now and don't need to pay any attention to it, since nothing matters after round 1. (That's sarcasm, Sheldon.)
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:45 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Nothing matters after Round TWO.
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:57 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Yeah, even before this (which I haven't read beyond the posts here as of now), I had come around in the other thread towards this model being more realistic. It's more real, but less fun, IMO. My only issue is really the transition from a league with a certain talent base coming from the draft to a league where the aging, expensive veterans are vastly superior (as a group) to the incoming young players due to the reduced talent levels in the draft. Once those last waves of stud drafts from previous OOTP development models retire, everything should be fine, it's just that transition phase that is going to be tricky.
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Old 06-07-2013, 03:06 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Just entering the draft in my league, and even with the prior examination I'd conducted, now that it's in front of me, determining that pick certainly isn't as much 'fun', I'll agree. In fact, it's awfully hard work coming to terms with making a pick. I can't say I've ever waivered on the solidity of the new model, but I'm definitely struggling more than I ever have with how to identify my projections. Best guess? I'm going to have a couple years of going wrong. I'll also confess a quiet little voice in my head suggesting I turn off scouting or up it to 100% for the draft, but I managed to silence it.....for the most part.

Oh, and thanks for the comments and article contributions, Wolf.
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Old 06-07-2013, 03:06 PM   #8 (permalink)
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JMD: go read the articles. Totally worth it.
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Old 06-07-2013, 03:15 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by endgame View Post
Just entering the draft in my league, and even with the prior examination I'd conducted, now that it's in front of me, determining that pick certainly isn't as much 'fun', I'll agree. In fact, it's awfully hard work coming to terms with making a pick. I can't say I've ever waivered on the solidity of the new model, but I'm definitely struggling more than I ever have with how to identify my projections. Best guess? I'm going to have a couple years of going wrong. I'll also confess a quiet little voice in my head suggesting I turn off scouting or up it to 100% for the draft, but I managed to silence it.....for the most part.

Oh, and thanks for the comments and article contributions, Wolf.
Using feeders and playing stats-only, it's not so bad.

And you are most welcome. I hate being wrong, and I was wrong on this.
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Old 06-07-2013, 03:31 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by The Wolf View Post
Nothing matters after Round TWO.
I am in general agreement. But, I like to stack the deck in my favor as much as possible in the later rounds.

I can usually find a 19 year old SP with only two pitches who measures 96 mph on the gun, but has no clue where the ball is going and he leaves it up and over the plate. In other words, no control or movement. If he ever develops another pitch, or, gains command of the zone, then maybe he can stick around. Or, maybe there is a no-hit 1B but he's really fast and has a great glove. Or maybe he's a catcher with a durable body and a baseball rat.

I will be wrong more than I am right. I will fail more than I succeed. At great cost, I will draft and develop a generation of gym teachers and insurance agents. But, when I am right...
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Old 06-07-2013, 03:58 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I am in general agreement. But, I like to stack the deck in my favor as much as possible in the later rounds.

I can usually find a 19 year old SP with only two pitches who measures 96 mph on the gun, but has no clue where the ball is going and he leaves it up and over the plate. In other words, no control or movement. If he ever develops another pitch, or, gains command of the zone, then maybe he can stick around. Or, maybe there is a no-hit 1B but he's really fast and has a great glove. Or maybe he's a catcher with a durable body and a baseball rat.

I will be wrong more than I am right. I will fail more than I succeed. At great cost, I will draft and develop a generation of gym teachers and insurance agents. But, when I am right...
This is what makes it fun for me, I don't see the fun in winning the championship every year because my team is stacked.
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Old 06-07-2013, 04:01 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Nothing matters after Round TWO.
If nothing really mattered after round 2, MLB scouting departments (in real life) wouldn't be working so hard to find the small differences that do exist in players available in the later rounds. Those small differences being represented is what is missing in OOTP 14 right now.
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Old 06-07-2013, 04:12 PM   #13 (permalink)
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If nothing really mattered after round 2, MLB scouting departments (in real life) wouldn't be working so hard to find the small differences that do exist in players available in the later rounds. Those small differences being represented is what is missing in OOTP 14 right now.

This is my point too. I don't want more talent in the later rounds. I just want the acquisition of said scarce talent to be based on more than dumb luck.
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Old 06-07-2013, 05:14 PM   #14 (permalink)
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This is my point too. I don't want more talent in the later rounds. I just want the acquisition of said scarce talent to be based on more than dumb luck.
If it were a reproducible skill, one team or one scout or team of scouts would show consistent results above the norm. I don't see any articles on that.

As for the previous post maybe scouting departments are not using their time wisely. That may be the next article we see.
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Old 06-07-2013, 05:15 PM   #15 (permalink)
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This is my point too. I don't want more talent in the later rounds. I just want the acquisition of said scarce talent to be based on more than dumb luck.
There are intangibles, but how exactly could you put that in a game such as ootp. there are potential players there in round 7 or round 9, the trick is it takes a scout to find the intangible.
maybe its a player who has yet to mature, he's 6'1 161, and knowing when he puts on 45 pounds he might become a different player. Maybe it is seeing that a kid had a likelyhood to hang around with the wrong crowd and so could get mixed up in a situation that could totally take him away from training. Maybe another just needs one little tweek- but you don't want to mention the tweek to anyone until he is in your organization.

Thus it can seem like luck when a team 5 years down the road has a 6th rounnd pick in their starting rotation and an 8th round at secondbase, but it is actually taking advantage of an intangible

Now the way to add this to ootp would have to be somethiing like all draft picks have an intangible- a second possible potential rating. in 95% of cases it is the same as the real one. but for 5 or even 2% there is a different higher or lower. The way one allocated a scouting budget will go into if one can spot the modifier or not. That would then make it a bit more realistic that there are some gems and major flops waiting to happen, and how one scouts gives the chance to see what no one else will see

2 cents anyway
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Old 06-07-2013, 05:34 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I'll be looking at my own draft this weekend, but my gut-check tells me that after the first round, and maybe even during that round, I'll be focusing on perceived intangibles like Work Ethic, Intelligence, etc... much more than I normally would, along with the quality of pitch types, velocity, and in hitters, well, with hitters, I'm just not sure, but I'm thinking it may have to involve personality traits with contact pulling a close second. Edit: That's not to say my feeder players' stats won't influence me a great deal, btw.
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Old 06-07-2013, 05:47 PM   #17 (permalink)
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If it were a reproducible skill, one team or one scout or team of scouts would show consistent results above the norm. I don't see any articles on that.

As for the previous post maybe scouting departments are not using their time wisely. That may be the next article we see.
There are teams that are consistently better at drafting and developing players than others. Good ones for many recent years are the Braves and Cardinals. For years the Orioles and Mariners were just awful. Just a few examples. I would like OOTP to replicate this--teams with better scouts and larger scouting budgets get better results with their later draft picks than those who choose to allocate their resources in other places.
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:17 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by HH20xx convert View Post
There are teams that are consistently better at drafting and developing players than others. Good ones for many recent years are the Braves and Cardinals. For years the Orioles and Mariners were just awful. Just a few examples.
Nice comment but nothing to do with what I was referring to.


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I would like OOTP to replicate this--teams with better scouts and larger scouting budgets get better results with their later draft picks than those who choose to allocate their resources in other places.
I've seen no evidence that such results exist. I said that already in my post. Until then I would absolutely not like it to be in the game.
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:18 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by HH20xx convert View Post
There are teams that are consistently better at drafting and developing players than others. Good ones for many recent years are the Braves and Cardinals. For years the Orioles and Mariners were just awful. Just a few examples. I would like OOTP to replicate this--teams with better scouts and larger scouting budgets get better results with their later draft picks than those who choose to allocate their resources in other places.
I think there's merit in the desire to see this emulated in the game. It is in a manner, that is, as experience grows and familiarity with players exposure over time. What needs the tweak, is to emphasize this familiarity with the corresponding skills, budget, and focus designation, specifically in the early years, IF the Amateur investment is made. Right now, IMHO only, the game doesn't treat the youngest candidates with enough familiarity to render any 'scouted' judgment fairly, especially in comparison to other scouts. In some sense, OSA does just as a good a job and could serve as a relative comparison. But those same players, with the same scout, observed over a long period of time- years plus -will have truer, more predictable, returns on those investments. So I guess I'll be advocating that scout's skills should have a one level up sort of treatment for the draft class, as an overall observation.

Now, as an experiment- and granted random -I'd shortlisted some feeder players immediately on creation and had them individually scouted, in the event that any made it to my first year draft, first year of the league. They have not, but what I'm hoping to discover- though the sampling is probably not large enough -is whether that early individual look returns any perceived value. I like the idea; I'm just not sure how to put it into practice or how the game should implement it.
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:32 PM   #20 (permalink)
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If nothing really mattered after round 2, MLB scouting departments (in real life) wouldn't be working so hard to find the small differences that do exist in players available in the later rounds. Those small differences being represented is what is missing in OOTP 14 right now.
With all due respect, I disagree. Many people work hard in order to keep their jobs and justify their salaries. It doesn't actually mean they are doing anything of value, and the occasional late-round anomaly should not make us think that somehow the scouts saw something. If anything, that is a result of coaching and development, not scouting.
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