Player Evaluation/Ratings

[Rex Dart]

I'm still trying to figure out the ratings system and player development. Some things I just don't quite understand yet.

Here's an example (all using the 20-80 rating scale). I have a 25 year old catcher who put together a .282/.391/.441 line in AAA over 365 at-bats. But his Overall and Potential ratings are 23/23.

Does this mean that the AAA performance was a pure fluke, and that playing him in the majors will be doomed to fail, because not only does he suck, but he doesn't even have the potential to not suck?

Or is there some chance that his good minor league performance is a leading indicator, and that if I played him, his overall and potential ratings might both go up considerably, and that he might become a useful major league regular?

In this particular case, I just traded my regular catcher, both to save money and because I think he's heading into decline, and I wanted to get rid of him before that happens instead of after.

But now I can't figure out what to do at catcher this year. Should I play the 25-year-old, or acquire a stopgap catcher, or what?

[TGH-Adfabre]

1) Do you have scouting on? What is the accuracy? How good is your scout?
This is critical because you may not be seeing his actual ratings.

2) Ratings drive stats, stats (I think) have a slight effect on ratings but (I think) it is because of player morale.
With scouting 100% accurate or off I would say the AAA catcher over performed his ratings, maybe.
What are his batting ratings?
Can you post a screen shot of him?
Talent (ratings) increases are basically random. Just because a player performs well does not mean he has a high likely hood to continue to. He may have performed at the extreme edge of his talent. He may also continue to do that. That is the quandry. Ratings are an indicator of likely hood or probability more than an indicator of certainty.

Hope that helps. Feel free to keep asking.

Good luck,
Tom

[Rex Dart]

Here's his screen shot:



A couple possibly-pertinent things I didn't mention earlier:
1. He spent 2014 as obviously inferior understudy to the departed catcher, not particularly distinguishing himself, but not getting much playing time, either.
2. He has 771 AB of quality AAA hitting, which I think would be enough of a sample size to suggest he'd do all right in the majors (but shouldn't this be reflected in his ratings somehow?)

[le receveur]

What about his defense? The fact that the slash line only produces 0.7 WAR would worry me...is this a hitters league?
You still didn't address the level of scouting, and the quality of your scouting

could be a decent back-up.... should stay cheap,

[awick]

As TGH-Adfabre said, you need to provide some context for your questions.

• How are your AI evaluations determined? Look under Game Setup/AI Options. If you have you have Ratings Weight set to 0, then the AI evaluates players by stats only. If Ratings Weight is set to 100, then the AI ignores stats and goes by the ratings only. If your Ratings Weight is somewhere between 0 and 100, then tha AI uses some blend of ratings and stats. What have you used?
• What is your scouting accuracy setting? Look under Game Setup/Global Setup. If it is set to 100% accuracy, then you are using the game's actual ratings (perhaps blended with stats as noted in the bullet above). If you are not using 100% accuracy, then you are looking at the actual ratings through the lenses of your scout's eyes. In this case, you will see the ratings with some degree of error introduced by how your scout "interprets" them
• How good is your scout? If he is Legendary in the appropriate area, then he will measure a player's ratings relatively well. If he is inexperienced or ok, then he really isn't qualified to give you his opinion on the player's abilities.

Once you tell us what your settings are in these 3 areas, then first you will better understand how to assess your player's talents yourself using both his ratings and his stats; and second, members of the forum will be in a position to comment on the specific case that you are asking about.

A final comment here: it's a big jump from even AAA to the major leagues. Many players perform well coming up through the minors but never find success in the majors. AI ratings and minor league stats are indicators of future success or failure but they don't provide a guarantee for success. To get that guarantee you would need to dispense with several layers of fog in this game and use the editor to look inside of a player. Then you can see what his performance should really be, on average -- no AI, no scouts, no fog of war, and no fun.

[Rex Dart]

Originally Posted by awick

As TGH-Adfabre said, you need to provide some context for your questions.

• How are your AI evaluations determined? Look under Game Setup/AI Options. If you have you have Ratings Weight set to 0, then the AI evaluates players by stats only. If Ratings Weight is set to 100, then the AI ignores stats and goes by the ratings only. If your Ratings Weight is somewhere between 0 and 100, then tha AI uses some blend of ratings and stats. What have you used?

Aha, this is a setting I hadn't looked at before. Ratings Weight is 30, Current Year 50, Previous Year 15, 2 Years Ago 5. Which I guess are the defaults for a 2013 start. (Does anyone have alternative "preferred settings" for these? Or, for that matter, the Trading Settings on the same page?)

• What is your scouting accuracy setting? Look under Game Setup/Global Setup. If it is set to 100% accuracy, then you are using the game's actual ratings (perhaps blended with stats as noted in the bullet above). If you are not using 100% accuracy, then you are looking at the actual ratings through the lenses of your scout's eyes. In this case, you will see the ratings with some degree of error introduced by how your scout "interprets" them

I set that to "High", on the theory that it would produce a reasonable level of accuracy while not taking all the fun out of it.

• How good is your scout? If he is Legendary in the appropriate area, then he will measure a player's ratings relatively well. If he is inexperienced or ok, then he really isn't qualified to give you his opinion on the player's abilities.

He's Decent at scouting the Majors, Good at scouting the Minors. (And "Favor Ability" as well.)

Once you tell us what your settings are in these 3 areas, then first you will better understand how to assess your player's talents yourself using both his ratings and his stats; and second, members of the forum will be in a position to comment on the specific case that you are asking about.

Thanks, the comments so far have already been helpful, actually.

A final comment here: it's a big jump from even AAA to the major leagues. Many players perform well coming up through the minors but never find success in the majors. AI ratings and minor league stats are indicators of future success or failure but they don't provide a guarantee for success. To get that guarantee you would need to dispense with several layers of fog in this game and use the editor to look inside of a player. Then you can see what his performance should really be, on average -- no AI, no scouts, no fog of war, and no fun.

Oh, yeah, those parts I understand well. I'm impressed by how few instances I've found so far of "Well, in real life you'd do X, but since this is OOTP, they don't simulate X, so it's Y and Z instead."

I figure if I can just get my bearings with this guy, I'll be able to extrapolate well enough.

[Rex Dart]

Originally Posted by le receveur

What about his defense? The fact that the slash line only produces 0.7 WAR would worry me...is this a hitters league?
You still didn't address the level of scouting, and the quality of your scouting

could be a decent back-up.... should stay cheap,

I'm pretty sure the league settings are whatever the defaults are for a 2013 start.

[awick]

For AI Player Evaluations, I use 40/30/20/10. You'll find many suggestions and opinions about this on the forum.

For trading, I use low/hard/neutral. Again, the community has a wide variety of opinions on this. I would say the consensus though is to use hard for trading difficulty.

There's nothing wrong with accuracy being high. I use low for more fog.

For scout ratings, it's a 10-point scale. I would look for a better scout.
10 - legendary
9 - outstanding
8 - excellent
7 - good
6 - decent
5 - average
4 - ok
3 - fair
2 - inexperienced
1 - unknown

Now, back to your guy, the fabulous Fabian. He looks to me like a journeyman minor league catcher -- slow, okay defensively, near average offensively at the AAA level. I wouldn't mind using him briefly as a big league backup, in a pinch, but I wouldn't expect much. He won't hurt you defensively and he won't help you offensively. Look for an upgrade.

[Rex Dart]

Interestingly enough, I had signed a cheap (about $1M and change) free-agent catcher to a one-year contract and figured on muddling through with him and Sykora in a platoon, when a trade proposal fell into my lap, and I ended up (after negotiating down from the other stuff they wanted) trading my superstar 3B for one of the top 2 catchers in the league and some prospects. Looks like a good deal, as my 3B was going into his contract year and the catcher is signed for four seasons at relatively reasonable salaries.

So the Sykora Conundrum, at least, appears settled. Now I just gotta figure out what to do about third base....

[RchW]

If those ratings are close to accurate, he would be minor league filler to me.

[Rex Dart]

Slightly different development/evaluation question. Is it generally best to leave people in the International Development Complex until they age out of it, or would the more promising international finds benefit more from being moved to the low minors?

For instance, I've got an 18 year old CF whose overall/potential rating is 23/56. Assuming no pressing need to rush a CF ahead as quickly as possible, what would you do with him?

(Not to get too far into the weeds, but he's already good in the toolsy stuff - 65s in speed, basestealing, running, good defense and bunting. Batting ratings for each figure have potential going up to 50 or 55.)

[le receveur]

the earlier you bring him up, the faster his service clock and when you will have to protect him from Rule 5 draft. so far i have waited to bring up, but i just noticed the Orioles had a 19 y.o. and their major league roster who they were aggressive with, so maybe i`m too conservative...

[RchW]

Originally Posted by le receveur

the earlier you bring him up, the faster his service clock and when you will have to protect him from Rule 5 draft. so far i have waited to bring up, but i just noticed the Orioles had a 19 y.o. and their major league roster who they were aggressive with, so maybe i`m too conservative...

A player "brought up" is protected from the rule 5 draft. Not sure what you mean.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Originally Posted by RchW

A player "brought up" is protected from the rule 5 draft. Not sure what you mean.

I think he means promoted from the International Complex to the teams minor league affiliate.

[RchW]

If a player is good enough he will make it before he is rule 5 eligible. Exceptions exist but they are correctly rare.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by RchW

If a player is good enough he will make it before he is rule 5 eligible. Exceptions exist but they are correctly rare.

i guess i used RL instead of OOTP,,, so i assume if you bring a 1 star 16 y.o to the continent right away, it is unlikely he would make the majors before you have to use a 40man roster spot for him...

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by le receveur

i guess i used RL instead of OOTP,,, so i assume if you bring a 1 star 16 y.o to the continent right away, it is unlikely he would make the majors before you have to use a 40man roster spot for him...

You're right. That's typically how it works in OOTP as well as in real life.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by lukasberger

You're right. That's typically how it works in OOTP as well as in real life.

but i saw a few 19 y,o, on other teams major league roster, that AI brought over way earlier in ever would... i am bringing up a 17 y.o. with already 2 star potential, and some ok D to rookie league this year,

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by le receveur

but i saw a few 19 y,o, on other teams major league roster, that AI brought over way earlier in ever would... i am bringing up a 17 y.o. with already 2 star potential, and some ok D to rookie league this year,

Well it does happen occasionally both irl and in OOTP. But it's not typical. The guys who get that high that quickly tend to be very, very talented.