Too Predictable....

sreem · 05-20-2015, 09:10 AM

I've noticed this game just seems too predictable. I'm having a hard time getting comfortable with it in this sense :

1) If my team commits and error in an inning, it seems to almost ALWAYS (not 100% but close) lead to at least 1 run for the opposing team.

2) If I leave my starter in longer than 5 innings with a lead, he will become the most hittable, wildest pitcher I've ever seen even if he has been dominating the game up to that point (studs like Price or scrubs like Locke, doesn't matter)

3) Balks happen too much, and have ALWAYS (100% of the time) lead to a run in my game (have had 5 balks in my last 7 games)

4) Too many errors (I have had 1 error per game through the first 17 games of my season)

Has anyone else noticed this stuff. I'm strating to feel like the game is rigged to favor the AI. I've seen this consistently whether I play with a strong team (Detroit) or a weak team (expansion team inaugural season).

This issues (other than the frequency of errors) only seem to happen when I play out the games, not when I sim.

Someone please reassure me that the game is completely random and that the code doesn't favor the AI (like giving them contact and eye ratings +5 when errors occur in game).

I'm beginning to lose faith......

Questdog · 05-20-2015, 09:14 AM

You can't lose what you never had......

Everything you listed is just silliness.

David Watts · 05-20-2015, 09:19 AM

Here we go again. Ugh!

majesty95 · 05-20-2015, 09:21 AM

I think you've got a small sample size and are seeing things worse than they are. If the board isn't littered with similar complaints, its probably not as bad as you think...

The Game · 05-20-2015, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

I've noticed this game just seems too predictable. I'm having a hard time getting comfortable with it in this sense :

1) If my team commits and error in an inning, it seems to almost ALWAYS (not 100% but close) lead to at least 1 run for the opposing team.

2) If I leave my starter in longer than 5 innings with a lead, he will become the most hittable, wildest pitcher I've ever seen even if he has been dominating the game up to that point (studs like Price or scrubs like Locke, doesn't matter)

3) Balks happen too much, and have ALWAYS (100% of the time) lead to a run in my game (have had 5 balks in my last 7 games)

4) Too many errors (I have had 1 error per game through the first 17 games of my season)

Has anyone else noticed this stuff. I'm strating to feel like the game is rigged to favor the AI. I've seen this consistently whether I play with a strong team (Detroit) or a weak team (expansion team inaugural season).

This issues (other than the frequency of errors) only seem to happen when I play out the games, not when I sim.

Someone please reassure me that the game is completely random and that the code doesn't favor the AI (like giving them contact and eye ratings +5 when errors occur in game).

I'm beginning to lose faith......

Post results of all of these. Many of us can point to multiple leagues that counter everything you said.

sreem · 05-20-2015, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

You can't lose what you never had......

Everything you listed is just silliness.

I'm sorry, did I miss something? I've been buying and playing this game since 12, so not sure where you're coming from here.

I have a serious concern and your response is that? Nice.

Could a non cool-aid drinker respond please, I'd appreciate a non-biased response.

I'm not making accusations, I'm concerned and frustrated. Or are we not allowed to question and be frustrated?

sreem · 05-20-2015, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Here we go again. Ugh!

Oh great, another one who doesn't allow for questioning. I didn't realize that players who have negative feelings or reactions to the game aren't allowed to post freely here.

My apologies.

Thanks to those of you who have had HELPFUL responses, shows your maturity.

sreem · 05-20-2015, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

Post results of all of these. Many of us can point to multiple leagues that counter everything you said.

It may just be that I'm playing out games now. I used to just sim but I wanted to be more involved with my team. Seem like an error every game for that many games is a bit high doesn't it?

I'm sorry but I have not saved screen shots, is there a way to go back and get the info to post? I'm not terribly computer savy.

Dyzalot · 05-20-2015, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

Seem like an error every game for that many games is a bit high doesn't it?

Oakland has committed 43 errors in 41 games so far this year. I'm assuming you mean an error a game for your team and not combined as that would actually be on the low side.

sreem · 05-20-2015, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Oakland has committed 43 errors in 41 games so far this year. I'm assuming you mean an error a game for your team and not combined as that would actually be on the low side.

Correct, we have committed at least 1 error a game (including pickoffs thrown away, and overthrows from the outfield) for the last 17 games. We have way more than that in total.

Dyzalot · 05-20-2015, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

Correct, we have committed at least 1 error a game (including pickoffs thrown away, and overthrows from the outfield) for the last 17 games. We have way more than that in total.

That's only 17 games though. This year in 41 games the A's have averaged more than one error per game. That's a sample size almost 250% larger than yours. And I wouldn't be surprised if you could find a 17 game stretch where they committed at least one error each game.

David Watts · 05-20-2015, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

Oh great, another one who doesn't allow for questioning. I didn't realize that players who have negative feelings or reactions to the game aren't allowed to post freely here.

My apologies.

Thanks to those of you who have had HELPFUL responses, shows your maturity.

Apology accepted.

WeagleWeagle · 05-20-2015, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

I've noticed this game just seems too predictable. I'm having a hard time getting comfortable with it in this sense :

1) If my team commits and error in an inning, it seems to almost ALWAYS (not 100% but close) lead to at least 1 run for the opposing team.

2) If I leave my starter in longer than 5 innings with a lead, he will become the most hittable, wildest pitcher I've ever seen even if he has been dominating the game up to that point (studs like Price or scrubs like Locke, doesn't matter)

3) Balks happen too much, and have ALWAYS (100% of the time) lead to a run in my game (have had 5 balks in my last 7 games)

4) Too many errors (I have had 1 error per game through the first 17 games of my season)

Has anyone else noticed this stuff. I'm strating to feel like the game is rigged to favor the AI. I've seen this consistently whether I play with a strong team (Detroit) or a weak team (expansion team inaugural season).

This issues (other than the frequency of errors) only seem to happen when I play out the games, not when I sim.

Someone please reassure me that the game is completely random and that the code doesn't favor the AI (like giving them contact and eye ratings +5 when errors occur in game).

I'm beginning to lose faith......

1.) Think we need more accurate # for this but I will start paying attention to it in mine. I am trying to find the % of errors -> runs in MLB but no luck so far. But I have not seen anything outrageous in my games

2.) I don't see this at all. I have consistently had guys gone deep. The main issue I find is when they get to 100+ pitches become more hittable which is accurate

3.) In 1 & half season of play I have seen 1 balk...

4.) Again in 1& half season of play I have finished near the bottom in errors committed but I have two 80 def up the middle & my only liability is a 3B who has committed 5 errors in 40 games which isn't ridiculous because I am teaching him a new position

Not sure how big you sample size is but the only point that I think could be interesting is #1. The other ones I have not see at all using the default settings & may just be result of a bad few weeks for your team

The Wolf · 05-20-2015, 11:01 AM

Repeat after me: "confirmation bias and small sample size."

I play every day and see none of these problems. But that seems to be a fairly common experience given the complaint threads of late.

The Wolf · 05-20-2015, 11:04 AM

Oh, and I commnonly see innings with errors where no one scores. But then I pay close attention to pitching and defense. It's common to see someone who gets on first with an error erased by a double play ball.

sreem · 05-20-2015, 11:13 AM

So from what I can gather from these replies, I ......

A) Have too small a sample size
B) Am experiencing what is called "Confirmation Bias" (I'm not sure what that means but sounds cool)
C) Am perceiving the game wrong due to points A & B
D) May not be suited for managing
E) Should never, EVER, post negative reactions in these threads lest I want to be ridiculed by All-Star Reserve and Higher posters

Matt Arnold · 05-20-2015, 11:21 AM

Some people get very defensive with the "AI is out to get me" sort of threads.

Btw, confirmation bias is cool and you should check it out: Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Essentially, it means that you remember all the times that the errors or balks cost you runs, but you forget the times that they didn't affect anything.

In the long run, things will even out. Your starters may suck now, but will then put up a few great games. I mean in real life Kershaw has a 4.24 ERA right now, and Kluber started the season 0-5, and had a 4.24 ERA in April. Kluber has bounced back his last couple starts, and I'm sure Kershaw will pitch a one hitter in the next week or 2.

Craig Scarborough · 05-20-2015, 11:23 AM

I'm going to say "absolutely not". You should feel free to post anything you want. HOWEVER...

When commenting on the game engine, go in-depth. Don't just say things that could be easily explained by confirmation bias and small sample size. If you're seeing an issue, document and come armed with the data. There is so much wasted time when someone complains about a given issue but then doesn't have anything (or very little) to back it up. Not only does it waste time on the responders end trying to help someone with something that may not be an issue, it also gives the developers no actionable response.

Cinnamon J. Scudworth · 05-20-2015, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sreem

So from what I can gather from these replies, I ......

A) Have too small a sample size
B) Am experiencing what is called "Confirmation Bias" (I'm not sure what that means but sounds cool)
C) Am perceiving the game wrong due to points A & B
D) May not be suited for managing
E) Should never, EVER, post negative reactions in these threads lest I want to be ridiculed by All-Star Reserve and Higher posters

I sympathize. We've all had stretches with the game where it feels like everything that can go against our team does. But you've obviously been around here long enough to know that every new version results in dozens of posts complaining about similar things and saying the game must be rigged, and every time the answer is the same: it's not rigged. This is backed up by long-term sims resulting in reasonable stats.

Assos · 05-20-2015, 11:27 AM

As do I, I am in my third season of 154, bout to move to 162 next year and I play out all of my games. Some games I do get a couple of errors, my SS, as most SSs are the likely victim because they see more balls. Balks, on average in my play out game are roughly 1 balk per 12 games on either side. I have had plenty of innings where an error does not lead to one run.
Also, are you using the 11. Visit the mound choice. It has been said in a number of threads that it will help calm your pitcher down and settle him down. I use it and I have had sub-par pitchers survive a jam and settle down for an inning or two.

05-20-2015, 09:21 AM	#4
majesty95 All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: San Antonio, TX Posts: 1,755	I think you've got a small sample size and are seeing things worse than they are. If the board isn't littered with similar complaints, its probably not as bad as you think... __________________ College Football Sim League \| '95 Problems Online League

05-20-2015, 11:13 AM	#16
sreem All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 673	So from what I can gather from these replies, I ...... A) Have too small a sample size B) Am experiencing what is called "Confirmation Bias" (I'm not sure what that means but sounds cool) C) Am perceiving the game wrong due to points A & B D) May not be suited for managing E) Should never, EVER, post negative reactions in these threads lest I want to be ridiculed by All-Star Reserve and Higher posters __________________ "What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger. Except for bears....."

05-20-2015, 09:10 AM	#1
sreem All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 673	Too Predictable.... I've noticed this game just seems too predictable. I'm having a hard time getting comfortable with it in this sense : 1) If my team commits and error in an inning, it seems to almost ALWAYS (not 100% but close) lead to at least 1 run for the opposing team. 2) If I leave my starter in longer than 5 innings with a lead, he will become the most hittable, wildest pitcher I've ever seen even if he has been dominating the game up to that point (studs like Price or scrubs like Locke, doesn't matter) 3) Balks happen too much, and have ALWAYS (100% of the time) lead to a run in my game (have had 5 balks in my last 7 games) 4) Too many errors (I have had 1 error per game through the first 17 games of my season) Has anyone else noticed this stuff. I'm strating to feel like the game is rigged to favor the AI. I've seen this consistently whether I play with a strong team (Detroit) or a weak team (expansion team inaugural season). This issues (other than the frequency of errors) only seem to happen when I play out the games, not when I sim. Someone please reassure me that the game is completely random and that the code doesn't favor the AI (like giving them contact and eye ratings +5 when errors occur in game). I'm beginning to lose faith...... __________________ "What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger. Except for bears....."

05-20-2015, 09:14 AM	#2
Questdog Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In a dark, damp cave where I'm training slugs to run the bases...... Posts: 16,142	You can't lose what you never had...... Everything you listed is just silliness.

05-20-2015, 09:19 AM	#3
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 8,870	Here we go again. Ugh!

05-20-2015, 11:21 AM	#17
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 14,136	Some people get very defensive with the "AI is out to get me" sort of threads. Btw, confirmation bias is cool and you should check it out: Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Essentially, it means that you remember all the times that the errors or balks cost you runs, but you forget the times that they didn't affect anything. In the long run, things will even out. Your starters may suck now, but will then put up a few great games. I mean in real life Kershaw has a 4.24 ERA right now, and Kluber started the season 0-5, and had a 4.24 ERA in April. Kluber has bounced back his last couple starts, and I'm sure Kershaw will pitch a one hitter in the next week or 2.

05-20-2015, 11:23 AM	#18
Craig Scarborough All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 551	I'm going to say "absolutely not". You should feel free to post anything you want. HOWEVER... When commenting on the game engine, go in-depth. Don't just say things that could be easily explained by confirmation bias and small sample size. If you're seeing an issue, document and come armed with the data. There is so much wasted time when someone complains about a given issue but then doesn't have anything (or very little) to back it up. Not only does it waste time on the responders end trying to help someone with something that may not be an issue, it also gives the developers no actionable response.

05-20-2015, 11:27 AM	#20
Assos All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Just on the fair side of the foul pole! Posts: 1,772	As do I, I am in my third season of 154, bout to move to 162 next year and I play out all of my games. Some games I do get a couple of errors, my SS, as most SSs are the likely victim because they see more balls. Balks, on average in my play out game are roughly 1 balk per 12 games on either side. I have had plenty of innings where an error does not lead to one run. Also, are you using the 11. Visit the mound choice. It has been said in a number of threads that it will help calm your pitcher down and settle him down. I use it and I have had sub-par pitchers survive a jam and settle down for an inning or two.