Contact Ratings, Now Hidden?

[sfgiants88]

I read through the feature list and came upon the following:

- Modified hitting ratings (Contact is now a result of a hidden BABIP rating and the avoid K's rating) and game engine

What exactly does this mean? Will we be limited to the Avoid-K rating and past stats in determining how well a player hits for average?

[Icy]

Originally Posted by sfgiants88

I read through the feature list and came upon the following:



What exactly does this mean? Will we be limited to the Avoid-K rating and past stats in determining how well a player hits for average?

No, you still can see the contact rating as before when you look at the player ratings. What that phrase means is that the contact rating is now auto calculated depending on BABIP and the avoid K's.

The only difference that you will see is when you are the commish and you want to edit the player contact. Instead of editing it directly, you edit the BABIP and Avoid K and the contact rating is auto generated depending on those values.

[sfgiants88]

Perfect. Thanks.

[RonCo]

The DIPS model is much stronger in this area.

[ms2002]

Originally Posted by Icy

No, you still can see the contact rating as before when you look at the player ratings. What that phrase means is that the contact rating is now auto calculated depending on BABIP and the avoid K's.

The only difference that you will see is when you are the commish and you want to edit the player contact. Instead of editing it directly, you edit the BABIP and Avoid K and the contact rating is auto generated depending on those values.

I'm sort of a DIPS freak as well, and I just wanted some clarification on this, if possible. The ONLY two factors into a player's batting average is the BABIP and Avoid K ratings? Shouldn't a player's power, plate discipline and GB/FB% play a factor as well?

[mrbill]

As a really big DIPS guy, I really like this idea. Now as long as the range of BABIP for hitters is realistic (you could make players in the past with BABIP of .470 and .180 with contact/avoid K rating combos), then this is excellent, and may drive me from 6.5 to 2007

[mrbill]

Originally Posted by ms2002

I'm sort of a DIPS freak as well, and I just wanted some clarification on this, if possible. The ONLY two factors into a player's batting average is the BABIP and Avoid K ratings? Shouldn't a player's power, plate discipline and GB/FB% play a factor as well?

Wouldn't you say that GB/FB/LD% and power factor into BABIP? And plate discipline more affects walk rate, and not so much BABIP?

If you have BABIP, you just have to assume that those three factors have gone into that number already. It may be that players get assigned BABIP that doesn't match up with their FB% or line drive/power ratings, but at least the idea that batting average is a sum of BABIP+Avoiding Ks seems right.

[Joshv02]

Originally Posted by ms2002

I'm sort of a DIPS freak as well, and I just wanted some clarification on this, if possible. The ONLY two factors into a player's batting average is the BABIP and Avoid K ratings? Shouldn't a player's power, plate discipline and GB/FB% play a factor as well?

IRL, the latter factors may play into the BABIP. Think of it this way:

Avg = BABIP*((AB-HR)*(1-k%)) = ((LD%+x)+(y*"speed")+(z*GB%))*(AB*(1-k%))

LD%+.12 seems close enough to approximate the other factors, fwiw.

[StyxNCa]

What is the formula to determine BABIP?

[Markmeister]

Try here - all sorts of formulas

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Markmeister

Try here - all sorts of formulas

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

WOW! Everything I ever wanted to know about formulas but was afraid to ask. Thanks!

[battists]

I believe OOTP's version is this:

H – HR
——————
AB – K – HR

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by battists

I believe OOTP's version is this:

H – HR
——————
AB – K – HR

Yup. That's the formula I found at that link. Simple enough.

[Joshv02]

Has anyone tested BABIPs in 2007 to see if they fall within the normal band? For Historical BABIP you can look to Dave Studeman's work: http://www.baseballgraphs.com/main/i...rough_history/

[Elendil]

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Has anyone tested BABIPs in 2007 to see if they fall within the normal band? For Historical BABIP you can look to Dave Studeman's work: http://www.baseballgraphs.com/main/i...rough_history/

That link goes to something else. In a 22-year sim, counting just hitter-seasons with at least 400 plate appearances, mean BABIP is .311 with a standard deviation of 0.037. That doesn't seem too far off, considering players with at least 400 PA's are going to be above league average, but there are some extremes: minimum BABIP was .178 and maximum was .461 (!). Doesn't seem too far out of the realm of possibility, though.

[RonCo]

BABIP has fallen in pretty good stead given a default, out of the box, league. Like everything OOTP, you can futz it up by messing with other parameters, and like Mr. Bill suggests, there are lower level details that could be added in future editions to make it even better. But as it stands, this is one of many ways that players perform better (meaning more realistically) in v2007 than they have in any previous version. BABIP skill is also developing properly as hitters age.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by ms2002

I'm sort of a DIPS freak as well, and I just wanted some clarification on this, if possible. The ONLY two factors into a player's batting average is the BABIP and Avoid K ratings? Shouldn't a player's power, plate discipline and GB/FB% play a factor as well?

Yes, they should--and, for the most part, do.

[Joshv02]

Originally Posted by Elendil

That link goes to something else. In a 22-year sim, counting just hitter-seasons with at least 400 plate appearances, mean BABIP is .311 with a standard deviation of 0.037. That doesn't seem too far off, considering players with at least 400 PA's are going to be above league average, but there are some extremes: minimum BABIP was .178 and maximum was .461 (!). Doesn't seem too far out of the realm of possibility, though.

Sorry - BABIP is 1-DER (depending on how we define BABIP and DER [eg, if we include sacrifices, etc.). I should have written that above.

Other than a very few seasons, BABIP shouldn't go above .400. In the past three years, it has reach .401 only once. http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&Submit=Submit

But, in looking at Lahman, since 1960 (using BABIP = H/(AB-K-SO)), there have been 49 seasons (400+ ABs) with a BABIP =>.461, though only 5 below .200 (and none as low as 178).

[RonCo]

You have to remove HR from the numerator...otherwise it's not a BIP. I also assume either the K or SO was meant to be HR.

[Joshv02]

I clearly work too much! You are right, of course, and when it is done correctly the range is .418 to .188, which is more reasonable. Of course, I also realized this morning that this wasn't particularly innovative and that you guys probably did this already!