Closing in on Statistical Pot of Gold...

Matter2003 · 02-12-2007, 09:15 PM

We are getting closer and closer to getting numbers that are dead on to MLB...a few more areas and I think we will be good...

Couple tweaks that should help this area in build 216 today, will check them out and see what hap

cephasjames · 02-12-2007, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matter2003

We are getting closer and closer to getting numbers that are dead on to MLB...a few more areas and I think we will be good...

Couple tweaks that should help this area in build 216 today, will check them out and see what hap

Does that mean '07 will be historical replay then, as opposed to historical with a twist (or whatever its been called before)?

jarmenia · 02-12-2007, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cephasjames

Does that mean '07 will be historical replay then, as opposed to historical with a twist (or whatever its been called before)?

depending on what options you set it can be either.

LeiterFanatic · 02-12-2007, 09:39 PM

So you are saying that not only does it out-OOTP OOTP but it also Out-Dmb9's DMB9?

Raidergoo · 02-12-2007, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeiterFanatic

So you are saying that not only does it out-OOTP OOTP but it also Out-Dmb9's DMB9?

Not yet. Soon.

ifspuds · 02-12-2007, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raidergoo

Not yet. Soon.

Ask again later?

akw4572 · 02-12-2007, 10:32 PM

Consistently year after year, or with replays for single seasons, what about for fictional leagues from the same year???? Just every now and then, or pretty darn close every time? League totals..........league leaders...........player totals.......?

Raidergoo · 02-12-2007, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ifspuds

Ask again later?

I am not going to answer this question, I expect some of the historical team members to write blogs on this. There is an Anderson Utility written specifically to evaluate total season statistical results vs actual results; maybe they will share the numbers.

I have seen some sims rate some stats at 1.0000 accurate.

Short version: ask again later.

StyxNCa · 02-12-2007, 10:45 PM

I bet players doubles and triples are nowhere near dead on in real historical replays. One thing I hated to see go after OOTP 5 was the seperate ratings for doubles and triples. Replaying the '69 season, people with a lot of triples, like Billy Williams, were getting far more doubles and far less triples than they had IRL.

DaddyO · 02-12-2007, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeiterFanatic

So you are saying that not only does it out-OOTP OOTP but it also Out-Dmb9's DMB9?

This raises the question. Does OOTP's ratings translator adjust for the park effects on real-life statistics when importing players from Lahman? In other words, will two pitchers from the 70's, one who threw in a hitter's park like Fenway and the other in a pitcher's park like Dodger stadium, both with similar raw stats, end up with different ratings?

Matter2003 · 02-12-2007, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

I bet players doubles and triples are nowhere near dead on in real historical replays. One thing I hated to see go after OOTP 5 was the seperate ratings for doubles and triples. Replaying the '69 season, people with a lot of triples, like Billy Williams, were getting far more doubles and far less triples than they had IRL.

Over one 98 year sim(1901-1998), here are the ratios:

Hits: .9995(99.95% Accuracy)
2B: 1.0037(99.63% Accuracy)
3B: .9927(99.27% Accuracy)
HR: 1.0367(96.33% Accurate)
BB: 1.0076(99.24% Accurate)
HBP: .9998(99.98% Accurate)
SO: 1.0171(98.29% Accurate)

We'll work on the HR's and K's

Not bad so far....not bad at all...

StyxNCa · 02-12-2007, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyO

This raises the question. Does OOTP's ratings translator adjust for the park effects on real-life statistics when importing players from Lahman? In other words, will two pitchers from the 70's, one who threw in a hitter's park like Fenway and the other in a pitcher's park like Dodger stadium, both with similar raw stats, end up with different ratings?

I'm about to hit the road so I don't have time to find the post, but somewhere in the 2006 General Discussions this topic came up and Marcus said there is an adjustment based on the stadium effect rating the Lahman database has. Perhaps someone can find the post and link it here.

StyxNCa · 02-12-2007, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matter2003

Over one 98 year sim(1901-1998), here are the ratios:

Hits: .9995(99.95% Accuracy)
2B: 1.0037(99.63% Accuracy)
3B: .9927(99.27% Accuracy)
HR: 1.0367(96.33% Accurate)
BB: 1.0076(99.24% Accurate)
HBP: .9998(99.98% Accurate)
SO: 1.0171(98.29% Accurate)

We'll work on the HR's and K's

Not bad so far....not bad at all...

Well my issue was on a player level, not the overall league stats. People with no triples were hitting a number of them while players with many triples were, for some reason, losing triples while gaining HEAVILY on doubles.This can happen to individuals while the league stats look fine.

The Billy Williams example I stated above had him with 15 doubles and 0 triples after 107 AB's. IRL, he had 33 doubles and 10 triples on the season. He wasn't the only one but I don't have time to go thru my league and mention every player who is way out of whack. If needed, I can do that some other time.

I'm not really crazy about the GAP rating.

Matter2003 · 02-12-2007, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

Well my issue was on a player level, not the overall league stats. People with no triples were hitting a number of them while players with many triples were, for some reason, losing triples while gaining HEAVILY on doubles.This can happen to individuals while the league stats look fine.

The Billy Williams example I stated above had him with 15 doubles and 0 triples after 107 AB's. IRL, he had 33 doubles and 10 triples on the season. He wasn't the only one but I don't have time to go thru my league and mention every player who is way out of whack. If needed, I can do that some other time.

I'm not really crazy about the GAP rating.

Not sure how those are---I don't play historical too often---perhaps someone else can chime in on that area?

halos17 · 02-13-2007, 12:28 AM

How are Stolen Base totals? Is the deadball era still off because of the lack of CS data or has that been accounted for in some way now?

Raidergoo · 02-13-2007, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by halos17

How are Stolen Base totals? Is the deadball era still off because of the lack of CS data or has that been accounted for in some way now?

That is under attack.

PotatoPeeler · 02-13-2007, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by halos17

How are Stolen Base totals? Is the deadball era still off because of the lack of CS data or has that been accounted for in some way now?

So how are you going to know if they got it right or not?

Markus Heinsohn · 02-14-2007, 04:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyO

This raises the question. Does OOTP's ratings translator adjust for the park effects on real-life statistics when importing players from Lahman? In other words, will two pitchers from the 70's, one who threw in a hitter's park like Fenway and the other in a pitcher's park like Dodger stadium, both with similar raw stats, end up with different ratings?

Yes.

halos17 · 02-14-2007, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

So how are you going to know if they got it right or not?

Touche!

I was more meaning just the SB totals in general. Wondering if we'll still need to tweak the engine, etc. just to get accurate SB totals. Not a killer issue because I've developed a workaround, more for curiosity.

Markus Heinsohn · 02-14-2007, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by halos17

Touche!

I was more meaning just the SB totals in general. Wondering if we'll still need to tweak the engine, etc. just to get accurate SB totals. Not a killer issue because I've developed a workaround, more for curiosity.

Nope, I am pretty sure we'll nail this issue before release!

02-12-2007, 09:15 PM	#1 (permalink)
Matter2003 All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: In the vicinity of Buffalo,NY Posts: 1,405	Closing in on Statistical Pot of Gold... We are getting closer and closer to getting numbers that are dead on to MLB...a few more areas and I think we will be good... Couple tweaks that should help this area in build 216 today, will check them out and see what hap __________________ "If you don't like it... You better learn to love it... Because its the best thing going... In the world... TODAY!! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!" -Ric Flair

02-13-2007, 12:28 AM	#15 (permalink)
halos17 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Indianapolis, IN Posts: 58	How are Stolen Base totals? Is the deadball era still off because of the lack of CS data or has that been accounted for in some way now? __________________ "The man who was the spearhead of the Dodger offense throughout the year, who saved them in the LCS, will not see any action tonight, for sure." -- Vin Scully on Kirk Gibson, 1988 WS Game 1

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02-12-2007, 09:39 PM	#4 (permalink)
LeiterFanatic All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Miami, FL Posts: 892	So you are saying that not only does it out-OOTP OOTP but it also Out-Dmb9's DMB9?

02-12-2007, 10:32 PM	#7 (permalink)
akw4572 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,071	Consistently year after year, or with replays for single seasons, what about for fictional leagues from the same year???? Just every now and then, or pretty darn close every time? League totals..........league leaders...........player totals.......?

02-12-2007, 10:45 PM	#9 (permalink)
StyxNCa All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Victoria, Texas Posts: 1,147	I bet players doubles and triples are nowhere near dead on in real historical replays. One thing I hated to see go after OOTP 5 was the seperate ratings for doubles and triples. Replaying the '69 season, people with a lot of triples, like Billy Williams, were getting far more doubles and far less triples than they had IRL.