Diminishing Skills

chimanbj · 02-13-2007, 03:25 PM

It has been discussed on talk radio here in Chicago, and by legend, it seems to hold true. In the major sports, most athletes' skills start to diminish at age 31 or so. But in baseball, that doesn't seem to be true, as a seemingly significant number of players seem to get better after 31, as their raw power wanes and the athletes have to start using finesse to play.

I haven't done any type of analysis on the lahmann database to verify this (yet), but I wonder if aging in the game is tweakable at that level, or if we have to make manual adjustments as we see fit...

ctorg · 02-13-2007, 03:29 PM

Isn't it only particular players (like Bonds) who seem to get better in their mid-30s, while most follow a normal decline?

Also, I thought I remembered reading somewhere around here once how the players who make it into their late 30s still in the game were usually better to start with than the young guys who come and go in a flash, which gives the impression that guys in their 30s are better than they are.

chimanbj · 02-13-2007, 03:31 PM

I guess the only way to know for sure is to look at the Lahmann database and do a proper analysis...

Joshv02 · 02-13-2007, 03:32 PM

http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt

RonCo · 02-13-2007, 03:34 PM

Interesting chart if I do say.

chimanbj · 02-13-2007, 03:37 PM

Verry interesting...

ctorg · 02-13-2007, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt

It's hard to get really accurate data with this stuff, even with an analysis like this, because really bad players generally disappear earlier, which means that players that last a long time and have more data (i.e. better players) influence things more.

RonCo · 02-13-2007, 03:43 PM

RonCo · 02-13-2007, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctorg

It's hard to get really accurate data with this stuff, even with an analysis like this, because really bad players generally disappear earlier, which means that players that last a long time and have more data (i.e. better players) influence things more.

Yes, you have to always understand that almost all aging studies are dealing with selective data. But you also need to use _something_ as a guidepost.

Joshv02 · 02-13-2007, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctorg

It's hard to get really accurate data with this stuff, even with an analysis like this, because really bad players generally disappear earlier, which means that players that last a long time and have more data (i.e. better players) influence things more.

Yes, there is a selection bias. That will be true with any repeating year study of the MLs - players who can repeat seasons in the ML are better than players who cannot. Same with any study that requires a min. PA or IP standard.

This only studies that universe of players and, agreed, it skews the data even in the universe under consideration.

Ron - you keep smiling b/c, I assume, you've run a boat load of tests on this as you've done in the past...

RonCo · 02-13-2007, 04:01 PM

Let's just say I'm familiar with those charts.

Raidergoo · 02-13-2007, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt

This fills me with mirth.

Joshv02 · 02-13-2007, 04:12 PM

Days like this I wish I could read through the Beta fora!

Raidergoo · 02-13-2007, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Days like this I wish I could read through the Beta fora!

I really think the coolest bits will come out in blogs.

zukes · 02-13-2007, 04:48 PM

and when are these blogs coming?

Curtis · 02-13-2007, 04:50 PM

We no longer believe in these mythical 'blogs' of which you speak.

Raidergoo · 02-13-2007, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zukes

and when are these blogs coming?

Soon.

Craig Scarborough · 02-13-2007, 07:28 PM

What, no mention of how the steroid era could be skewing these charts?

Joshv02 · 02-13-2007, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig Scarborough

What, no mention of how the steroid era could be skewing these charts?

All types of external factors should be skewing the charts - previously, the lack of professionalization may change the relevant data set, or the influx of players from other leagues (e.g., Negro Leagues) past their prime, etc.

Craig Scarborough · 02-13-2007, 08:02 PM

Yeah, but the chart details 1979-1999. I doubt the Negro League had much of a bearing

02-13-2007, 03:25 PM	#1 (permalink)
chimanbj All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 705	Diminishing Skills It has been discussed on talk radio here in Chicago, and by legend, it seems to hold true. In the major sports, most athletes' skills start to diminish at age 31 or so. But in baseball, that doesn't seem to be true, as a seemingly significant number of players seem to get better after 31, as their raw power wanes and the athletes have to start using finesse to play. I haven't done any type of analysis on the lahmann database to verify this (yet), but I wonder if aging in the game is tweakable at that level, or if we have to make manual adjustments as we see fit... __________________ People ask if I'm a Cubs or White Sox fan...I tell them, proudly, I'm a Phillies Phan!

02-13-2007, 03:29 PM	#2 (permalink)
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Brooklyn, NY Posts: 9,416	Isn't it only particular players (like Bonds) who seem to get better in their mid-30s, while most follow a normal decline? Also, I thought I remembered reading somewhere around here once how the players who make it into their late 30s still in the game were usually better to start with than the young guys who come and go in a flash, which gives the impression that guys in their 30s are better than they are. __________________ THE VERY US ARTISTS - A project for musicians and visual artists My music Currently reading: Thirteen by Richard Morgan "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

02-13-2007, 03:31 PM	#3 (permalink)
chimanbj All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 705	I guess the only way to know for sure is to look at the Lahmann database and do a proper analysis... __________________ People ask if I'm a Cubs or White Sox fan...I tell them, proudly, I'm a Phillies Phan!

02-13-2007, 03:32 PM	#4 (permalink)
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,074	http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

02-13-2007, 03:37 PM	#6 (permalink)
chimanbj All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 705	Verry interesting... __________________ People ask if I'm a Cubs or White Sox fan...I tell them, proudly, I'm a Phillies Phan!

02-13-2007, 03:34 PM	#5 (permalink)
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 5,470	Interesting chart if I do say.

02-13-2007, 03:43 PM	#8 (permalink)
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 5,470

02-13-2007, 04:01 PM	#11 (permalink)
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 5,470	Let's just say I'm familiar with those charts.

02-13-2007, 04:12 PM	#13 (permalink)
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,074	Days like this I wish I could read through the Beta fora! __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

02-13-2007, 04:48 PM	#15 (permalink)
zukes All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London, Ont. Canada Posts: 738	and when are these blogs coming? __________________ <------------ My son, the future Calgary Flame

02-13-2007, 07:28 PM	#18 (permalink)
Craig Scarborough OOTP Developments Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 398	What, no mention of how the steroid era could be skewing these charts?

02-13-2007, 08:02 PM	#20 (permalink)
Craig Scarborough OOTP Developments Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 398	Yeah, but the chart details 1979-1999. I doubt the Negro League had much of a bearing

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