Hit'em Where They Ain't

Craig Scarborough · 03-03-2007, 09:19 AM

This one's for Markus -

Does each player have a distinct profile of where he hits the ball and how?

Are there line drive hitters vs. ground ball hitters vs. fly ball hitters?

For instance, does a guy who has very little upper cut in his swing (whether this is truly modeled or not doesn't matter) - and thus a line-drive hitter - tend to hit into fewer infield pop-ups?

Markus Heinsohn · 03-03-2007, 09:32 AM

No, this is not part of the hitters ratings.

ctorg · 03-03-2007, 11:00 AM

Nice idea for future versions, I would think.

BigCity · 03-03-2007, 11:32 AM

Yes, this would be a nice future enhancement.

Generally speaking, most hitters hit to the side of the plate they stand on. Righthanders hit to the left, lefthanders to the right - but there are, of course, plenty of exceptions. Sprayhitters, even opposite field hitters, and a few that can almost place the ball on command.

I think 4 ratings would work well.

Normal - generally hits to the side he stands on
Spray - pretty much even
Opposite - rare, usually the result of a slow swing
Command - can usually place ball to the advantage of the base situation

This rating would then lead well into shifting fielders to try and counter this variable.

Curtis · 03-03-2007, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCity

I think 4 ratings would work well.

Normal - generally hits to the side he stands on
Spray - pretty much even
Opposite - rare, usually the result of a slow swing
Command - can usually place ball to the advantage of the base situation

I like this idea, especially adding 'command' to account for the more highly skilled batters. The current system uses 'pull', 'normal' and 'spray'; are you proposing to eliminate the 'pull' category?

Craig Scarborough · 03-03-2007, 11:46 AM

Ok, so batters kind of fit to a normalized league-wide snapshot?

Meaning...righties will ground out to the left-side of the infield and fly out to the right-side of the outfield (and vice versa)?

Markus Heinsohn · 03-03-2007, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig Scarborough

Ok, so batters kind of fit to a normalized league-wide snapshot?

Meaning...righties will ground out to the left-side of the infield and fly out to the right-side of the outfield (and vice versa)?

Yes. Retrosheet PbP data was used to model perfect tendencies...

The Wolf · 03-03-2007, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

No, this is not part of the hitters ratings.

2008! 2008!

BigCity · 03-03-2007, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

I like this idea, especially adding 'command' to account for the more highly skilled batters. The current system uses 'pull', 'normal' and 'spray'; are you proposing to eliminate the 'pull' category?

I was just laying out the ratings the way "I" would do it. Another option would be to add the "command" rating to what's altready there.

ctorg · 03-04-2007, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigCity

Yes, this would be a nice future enhancement.

Generally speaking, most hitters hit to the side of the plate they stand on. Righthanders hit to the left, lefthanders to the right - but there are, of course, plenty of exceptions. Sprayhitters, even opposite field hitters, and a few that can almost place the ball on command.

I think 4 ratings would work well.

Normal - generally hits to the side he stands on
Spray - pretty much even
Opposite - rare, usually the result of a slow swing
Command - can usually place ball to the advantage of the base situation

This rating would then lead well into shifting fielders to try and counter this variable.

Should probably put Pull before Normal there. Some guys are pretty extreme. Command seems like it might be something that could be its own rating: How well can a guy target where he hits a ball?

TNCubsFan · 03-04-2007, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craig Scarborough

Ok, so batters kind of fit to a normalized league-wide snapshot?

Meaning...righties will ground out to the left-side of the infield and fly out to the right-side of the outfield (and vice versa)?

Actually sometimes the opposite is true. I had four years of spray charts on a college conference and you would be amazed at the numbers of guys who pull
groundballs and go opposite field with anything they hit in the air.

The cause being the barrel of the bat dropping during the swing.

The spray hitters are the slap guys most of the time where they get around late on the good fastballs and then pull the average ones.

Being able to hit with the count really means being able to hit a baseball to the opposite field. First off the pitcher has to co-operate and not jam you hard inside. Secondly it is a skill that has to be practiced like any other baseball skill. When guys are getting to the park at 11AM for a 7pm start it's to get into the cage and have three or four rounds of flip to work going opposite field.

Joshv02 · 03-04-2007, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

Yes. Retrosheet PbP data was used to model perfect tendencies...

Fantastic - the micro data would be great, too, but the macro data is just a great touch.

Craig Scarborough · 03-04-2007, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNCubsFan

Actually sometimes the opposite is true. I had four years of spray charts on a college conference and you would be amazed at the numbers of guys who pull
groundballs and go opposite field with anything they hit in the air.

The cause being the barrel of the bat dropping during the swing.

The spray hitters are the slap guys most of the time where they get around late on the good fastballs and then pull the average ones.

Being able to hit with the count really means being able to hit a baseball to the opposite field. First off the pitcher has to co-operate and not jam you hard inside. Secondly it is a skill that has to be practiced like any other baseball skill. When guys are getting to the park at 11AM for a 7pm start it's to get into the cage and have three or four rounds of flip to work going opposite field.

Isn't this what I said in my post?

Craig Scarborough · 03-04-2007, 01:31 PM

dola

According to the book, "The Physics of Baseball" - the great majority of players have an upper-cut in their swing. For some, it's more pronounced and for others less so. If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. A right-handed batter who swings early will hit the ball to the left-side and it will be a ground ball, since the barrel of the bat is on the high-side of his upper-cut swing. A righty who is late will pop out to the right-hand side, because the barrel of the bat is on the low-side of his swing. Simply flip-flop this process for lefty batters.

Now, there were certains guys, like Wade Boogs, who had a VERY flat swing. Thus, if you're early (Wade Boggs was a lefty), you hit a line drive to the right-hand side of the field. If you're late, you hit a line drive to the left side of the field. Thus - you'd say he had "gap power", but not real homerun power. The advantage is, you'd hit most everything hard and very rarely pop-out (to the infield) - and you'd have one less plane to think about when trying to hit the ball.

I was hoping that OOTP 2007 would model some of this stuff, but it sounds like something for the future. If he is able to model this I'd have to give him major kudos. I've attempted to, but never really found the way to model this and keep overall statistics in line.

QuestGAV · 03-04-2007, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctorg

Should probably put Pull before Normal there. Some guys are pretty extreme. Command seems like it might be something that could be its own rating: How well can a guy target where he hits a ball?

I'd even make it a continuum from pull-opposite field with a number in the middle representing spray rather than just discrete choices like that. I'd also agree that command would be something entirely different that would be much tougher to represent/quantify.

TNCubsFan · 03-04-2007, 01:39 PM

Craig a big DOHHHH on my part. You are right in your initial post. Thats what I get for trying to reply before my second cup of coffee.

Craig Scarborough · 03-04-2007, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNCubsFan

Craig a big DOHHHH on my part. You are right in your initial post. Thats what I get for trying to reply before my second cup of coffee.

Hehe, I know the feeling!

03-03-2007, 09:19 AM	#1 (permalink)
Craig Scarborough OOTP Developments Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 398	Hit'em Where They Ain't This one's for Markus - Does each player have a distinct profile of where he hits the ball and how? Are there line drive hitters vs. ground ball hitters vs. fly ball hitters? For instance, does a guy who has very little upper cut in his swing (whether this is truly modeled or not doesn't matter) - and thus a line-drive hitter - tend to hit into fewer infield pop-ups?

03-03-2007, 11:00 AM	#3 (permalink)
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Brooklyn, NY Posts: 9,416	Nice idea for future versions, I would think. __________________ THE VERY US ARTISTS - A project for musicians and visual artists My music Currently reading: Thirteen by Richard Morgan "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

03-04-2007, 01:39 PM	#16 (permalink)
TNCubsFan Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 170	Craig a big DOHHHH on my part. You are right in your initial post. Thats what I get for trying to reply before my second cup of coffee. __________________ "If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing is like kissing your grandmother with her teeth out" George Brett HOF

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03-03-2007, 09:32 AM	#2 (permalink)
Markus Heinsohn Developer OOTP Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Heinbockel, Germany Posts: 9,447	No, this is not part of the hitters ratings.

03-03-2007, 11:32 AM	#4 (permalink)
BigCity All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: South Shore, Great Lakes Posts: 1,175	Yes, this would be a nice future enhancement. Generally speaking, most hitters hit to the side of the plate they stand on. Righthanders hit to the left, lefthanders to the right - but there are, of course, plenty of exceptions. Sprayhitters, even opposite field hitters, and a few that can almost place the ball on command. I think 4 ratings would work well. Normal - generally hits to the side he stands on Spray - pretty much even Opposite - rare, usually the result of a slow swing Command - can usually place ball to the advantage of the base situation This rating would then lead well into shifting fielders to try and counter this variable.

03-03-2007, 11:46 AM	#6 (permalink)
Craig Scarborough OOTP Developments Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 398	Ok, so batters kind of fit to a normalized league-wide snapshot? Meaning...righties will ground out to the left-side of the infield and fly out to the right-side of the outfield (and vice versa)?

03-04-2007, 01:31 PM	#14 (permalink)
Craig Scarborough OOTP Developments Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 398	dola According to the book, "The Physics of Baseball" - the great majority of players have an upper-cut in their swing. For some, it's more pronounced and for others less so. If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. A right-handed batter who swings early will hit the ball to the left-side and it will be a ground ball, since the barrel of the bat is on the high-side of his upper-cut swing. A righty who is late will pop out to the right-hand side, because the barrel of the bat is on the low-side of his swing. Simply flip-flop this process for lefty batters. Now, there were certains guys, like Wade Boogs, who had a VERY flat swing. Thus, if you're early (Wade Boggs was a lefty), you hit a line drive to the right-hand side of the field. If you're late, you hit a line drive to the left side of the field. Thus - you'd say he had "gap power", but not real homerun power. The advantage is, you'd hit most everything hard and very rarely pop-out (to the infield) - and you'd have one less plane to think about when trying to hit the ball. I was hoping that OOTP 2007 would model some of this stuff, but it sounds like something for the future. If he is able to model this I'd have to give him major kudos. I've attempted to, but never really found the way to model this and keep overall statistics in line.