TRTR : Day 25

[Raidergoo]

Originally Posted by BruceM

In regards to pitching, how much randomness is there?

Will we still get some Roger Clemens, Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux types who pitch very well into their late 30's and even early 40's?

Yes. Sometimes they degrade nicely, like Maddux. It's rare to see this; more often than not they implode. I don't think it is predictable like the old age 36 cliff.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Assos

How does this skills changing and developing at different times effect leagues that are converted over?

This is an area that I'm sensitive to, btw, because my pet reason for enjoying the game is my online league--which is converting all the way from v5.

The converted leagues I've tested have done fine in the big picture. I've looked at two in particular. The results with respect to specific players is, however, somewhat unpredictable (as you would expect in an environemnt that's randomoized). You might see a guy catch an odd wave and hold on longer than he would have. I haven't found many guys who crash terribly...mostly because if they're crashing, their skills are already eroding in the earlier development framework. That said, I'm certain you'll find a variety of subtle changes as a result of converting leagues--probably just like about every other version migration. However, I think the changes to the game engine--wherein velocity now plays a role in strikeout rate (where it didn't previously), and strikeout rate influences battnig average (where it didn't previously)--are probably going to have bigger fundamental changes to player value than the new aging curves.

What individual perturbations I've seen seem to settle themselves out in a season or two. But it's a big, big OOTP world out there. I would be fooling myself if I tried to say there won't be any outlier cases of players that aren't affected by the new aging curves.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by hyde4us11

WOW THAT WAS A GREAT ARTICLE !!!!!

Thanks for the time you and others spent on doing this.

You're welcome. Thanks for commenting.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by BruceM

In regards to pitching, how much randomness is there?

Will we still get some Roger Clemens, Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux types who pitch very well into their late 30's and even early 40's?

Pretty much every league I have run (maybe 100 in three months) has had a few pitchers hang on and be effective into their early 40s. The number of these occurances is variable. Sevieen's stats/aging profiles have shown an excellent match between OOTP and MLB data (using the 1980-2006 time period as his baseline).

[CBL-Commish]

It looks like the team has nailed aging in the aggregate, but how about at a closer level? Specifically regarding pitchers - are there fairly frequent radical deviations from the age-27 peak, such as in real life? Has anyone seen realistic numbers of Steve Averys (dominant early, done before 30) and Dazzy Vances (minor leaguer in his 20s, HOFer in his 30s)? Do knuckleballers age differently, peaking very late and lasting into their 40s more often than not?

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by skywalkr2

You see how his warnings are right below his location? Seems a bit differeent than normal.

I bet that it wraps around if you type this in for your location: "At your door Warnings: 212"

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by CBL-Commish

It looks like the team has nailed aging in the aggregate, but how about at a closer level? Specifically regarding pitchers - are there fairly frequent radical deviations from the age-27 peak, such as in real life? Has anyone seen realistic numbers of Steve Averys (dominant early, done before 30) and Dazzy Vances (minor leaguer in his 20s, HOFer in his 30s)?

I feel pretty comfortable with this aspect of things, but I don't really have anything to quantifiably measure OOTP vs. MLB, so I hesitate to make a definitive statement. What feels fine to me may not feel good to you. That said, the career lengths of pitchers is matching reality pretty well, and the aging curves (relating to true value) are looking workable, career leaderboards have been pretty solid for some time, Hall of Fame registers have looked respectable, and my anectdotal review of players have generally been satisfying. So may magic 8-ball reads "all indicators positive."

Do knuckleballers age differently, peaking very late and lasting into their 40s more often than not?

You know, I'm embarrassed to admit it never occurred to me to look for that. I'll dig into one of my leauges and see if I can manage to pull that data out.

[JHruska]

Originally Posted by CBL-Commish

It looks like the team has nailed aging in the aggregate, but how about at a closer level? Specifically regarding pitchers - are there fairly frequent radical deviations from the age-27 peak, such as in real life? Has anyone seen realistic numbers of Steve Averys (dominant early, done before 30) and Dazzy Vances (minor leaguer in his 20s, HOFer in his 30s)? Do knuckleballers age differently, peaking very late and lasting into their 40s more often than not?

I know it's not what you meant, but we've always had players like Avery in OOTP.... prime of the career, injury, and umpteen ratings hits while on the DL to put an end to their effectiveness.

[Markus Heinsohn]

Originally Posted by CBL-Commish

Do knuckleballers age differently, peaking very late and lasting into their 40s more often than not?

They do age differently, yes...

[CBL-Commish]

Originally Posted by RonCo

I feel pretty comfortable with this aspect of things, but I don't really have anything to quantifiably measure OOTP vs. MLB, so I hesitate to make a definitive statement. What feels fine to me may not feel good to you. That said, the career lengths of pitchers is matching reality pretty well, and the aging curves (relating to true value) are looking workable, career leaderboards have been pretty solid for some time, Hall of Fame registers have looked respectable, and my anectdotal review of players have generally been satisfying. So may magic 8-ball reads "all indicators positive."



You know, I'm embarrassed to admit it never occurred to me to look for that. I'll dig into one of my leauges and see if I can manage to pull that data out.

Sounds great, thanks. Really appreciate the work the testers have put in on this.

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

They (knuckleballers) do age differently, yes...

Even better.

[skywalkr2]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

I bet that it wraps around if you type this in for your location: "At your door Warnings: 212"

Yep. That's what i was thinking.

[chriskelly]

I have a question about the statement that the avg. pitcher seems to hold his skills until late into his 30s, and then often implodes, losing his skills quickly.

In the game, what factors impact a players decision to retire? I would assume the factors are contract length, stats and injuries.

Im' sure you know why I'm asking....Do I go ahead and offer an older P an extra 2 years on his deal, knowing that if his skills degrade quickly, he's more likely to walk away>>

[endgame]

Originally Posted by chriskelly

I have a question about the statement that the avg. pitcher seems to hold his skills until late into his 30s, and then often implodes, losing his skills quickly.

In the game, what factors impact a players decision to retire? I would assume the factors are contract length, stats and injuries.

Im' sure you know why I'm asking....Do I go ahead and offer an older P an extra 2 years on his deal, knowing that if his skills degrade quickly, he's more likely to walk away>>

I think your original statement has more to do with v2006 than v2007. As to what factors actually play into his decision, I'd agree that his physical condition (injury history), age (obviously), and historical ratings swing (up or down). As to the last, sounds like a management decision to me. If we know too much about what makes what happen, predictability too easily sets in.

[Curtis]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

First!

I have now lost all respect for you. You are dead to me.

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I thought for sure that you were above this.

Gall and wormwood. That's all he's left us.

I … need… a moment….