Talent hit bug?

[WWBL Commissioner]

Guys,
One of the GM's in my online league brought this to my attention. Is it possible that a low rated player could take a talent hit that would "loop" his ratings back around to a high rating?

Please read here for the post from the GM asking the question

http://thewwbl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5022#5022

If this is the case it is a very bad bug. All the players were rated in single digit rating contact 1 power 1 etc.

so if this guy to a 10 point contact hit he would go to a 91? anybody sen anything like this?

[Tycobbler]

Interesting. Is Alaska the only team to find gold in them thar hills

[RonCo]

50-70 point talent increases across the board happen. They don't happen often, but I see a few of them in every league I study. I don't play with scouts on at all, BTW.

[Mattymo]

I've never seen that, and I don't play with scouts.

[RonCo]

I'm not sure how many players you look at, but my code reads 100% of players in a universe. Here's test output of a fictonal league under the latest patch release, looking at power talent. The table below shows how many players of any particular age were in the universe during the time of the league (60 years, sim, I think). All settings were default, with scouts off. i measured the number of players who received talent increases and decreases in 20-point bands. So this data, for example, says that seven of 798 17-yo hitters received a talent increase of > 60 points during their 17 yo season.

You can figure the rest our yourself.

Power								
Age	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Hitters	798	900	825	1236	1632	1501	1332	1211
+60	7	5	13	12	6	4	0	1
+40	18	16	31	36	27	20	10	11
+20	54	66	72	93	82	67	49	30
PosDev	124	132	133	200	198	161	110	74
None	436	558	503	776	1106	1054	972	890
NegDev	238	210	189	260	328	286	250	247
-20	88	73	78	91	115	102	83	66
-40	26	19	20	25	22	15	25	17
-60	8	6	6	4	6	4	3	1

[RonCo]

Dola,

Since my study cap is 60 points, I can't say what the max possible was off the top of my head.

[falkonisback]

So there's a chance in this game that you might come across a young prospect who, at first looking at his ratings, looks like garbage, but can get a 60+ point talent increase and turn into a possible hall of fame stud??? THAT'S FRICKEN AWESOME!!!!!!!!!! I LOVE THIS GAME!!!!

[RonCo]

Note, I'm not saying it's impossible to have a "roll-under" ... just that's it's possible to have a large increase. I should note that a _lot_ of players with low talents get talent hits, though, so I would think that if we were looking at a roll-under problem, it would have come to light previously.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by falkonisback

So there's a chance in this game that you might come across a young prospect who, at first looking at his ratings, looks like garbage, but can get a 60+ point talent increase and turn into a possible hall of fame stud??? THAT'S FRICKEN AWESOME!!!!!!!!!! I LOVE THIS GAME!!!!

Of course!

[RonCo]

Just did a check on the raw data in my test league. The max increase was 144/200 points (72/100), the max decrease was 74/200 (37/100). So from what I see, the issue in question is on the edge of design expectations. For what it's worth, the player went from :

Age 20: Power Talent = 46
Age 21: Power Talent = 54
Age 22: Power Talent = 200

[Tony M]

Are those stats based on their starting potential and their maximum achieved potential or their potential at the end of the year or what?

[RonCo]

The issue with the financial model in their thread may be another matter.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by redsoxford

Are those stats based on their starting potential and their maximum achieved potential or their potential at the end of the year or what?

I measured potential as of Jan 1 of each year. So the player above was 20 yo on Jan 1, and had a Power Potential of 46. By next Jan 1 his Power Potential was 54. By next Jan 1 his Power Potential was 200. Ratings, of course grow with potential.

[gohorns98]

RonCo,

I would agree with you analysis, but the bump up in rating happened at the moment that the players original team released him. I doubt that he would have been released if the potentials were that high.

Also, this occured with a couple of players all released by one team at one time. I think the problem is not with the player getting a bump in ratings, but the timing of the bump in relation to him being released, and that it happened to several players at the same time.

[RonCo]

Roll-under (dev hit) or dev bump, you've got the same oddity, then. It's all happening on transistion from team-to-team? If your scouts are off, then it can't be due to the scouting algorithm...though I'm learning not to say that too loudly. That's an odd one. I still wouldn't attribute it to a roll-under just because if it were happening that way I would have thought we would have heard it or seen it in a bunch of other leagues.

[RonCo]

I assume all these teams are human owned?

[gohorns98]

Yes all of these teams are human owned.

This is the only time that I have seen this happen to this extent in our league as well. I just want to think that it was bad coaching at the former team and once out of that system the players thrived. At least that is how I am looking at it.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by RonCo

Just did a check on the raw data in my test league. The max increase was 144/200 points (72/100), the max decrease was 74/200 (37/100). So from what I see, the issue in question is on the edge of design expectations. For what it's worth, the player went from :

Age 20: Power Talent = 46
Age 21: Power Talent = 54
Age 22: Power Talent = 200

I guess in this scenario, a 54->200 roll-under could equate to a 104pt. potential drop as well as a 144 pt. increase. Again, though, if that were happening, my test script should see a _lot_ of younger players jumping from the 20-30 range up to the high 200s...which I would report as a 170+ potential gain. That's not happening. So while something may be wrong, I don't think there's a roll-under problem at work.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by gohorns98

RonCo,

I would agree with you analysis, but the bump up in rating happened at the moment that the players original team released him. I doubt that he would have been released if the potentials were that high.

Also, this occured with a couple of players all released by one team at one time. I think the problem is not with the player getting a bump in ratings, but the timing of the bump in relation to him being released, and that it happened to several players at the same time.

Not intended to start a controversy but, is there any possibility of the league password being compromised and this being tampering? I'm not accusing anyone of anything but the timing is strange.

[gohorns98]

RchW,

I would have thought the same thing, but the ratings bump happened before the signing of the players out of the Free Agent pool. I offered low contract to these players because I have no money.

If the ratings bump happened after the signing then I would be jumping up and down as well.