Improving the Injury Model - Page 2

ctorg · 04-18-2008, 10:14 AM

First, I really like the initial suggestion as a nice way of creating more customization for injuries.

Second, I think there's a lot more work to do in regards to injury realism. As I've said before, the biggest problem to me is a lack of minor injuries to pitchers that push back their starts a couple of days or sideline them for a week without any real afteraffects. Setting injuries to low or high doesn't offset the problem of there being a not-quite-right proportion of the right kinds of injuries.

The Wolf · 04-19-2008, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andymac

The Cardinals currently have 7 pitchers on the DL.

Lucky dogs. In four different leagues, I have had 9 pitchers down once (including all 5 starters), 12 down twice (all 5 starters down once, 4 starters down the other time), and 15 down once (all starters down plus all the starters who had been in AAA down as well).

Having just 7 down would be a pleasant change.

1998 Yankees · 04-19-2008, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ctorg

Second, I think there's a lot more work to do in regards to injury realism. As I've said before, the biggest problem to me is a lack of minor injuries to pitchers that push back their starts a couple of days or sideline them for a week without any real afteraffects. Setting injuries to low or high doesn't offset the problem of there being a not-quite-right proportion of the right kinds of injuries.

This is probably the correct middle ground between Injury Log's and The Wolf's positions on this matter.

injury log · 04-19-2008, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

This is probably the correct middle ground between Injury Log's and The Wolf's positions on this matter.

Are you saying my position is not correct?

I agree completely with ctorg, in fact- OOTP definitely has that balance of mild and severe injuries wrong.

1998 Yankees · 04-19-2008, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by injury log

Are you saying my position is not correct?

Absolutely not!

I am saying that you are correct in that "normal" injury settings are realistic for late 20th / early 21st century professional baseball. Yet, I share The Wolf's feelings about preferring the "low" setting because it may be more indicative of an earlier baseball era when pitchers were, well, tougher. I play only on "low" injuries for the same reason as him.

Yet, I welcome ctorg's suggestion as being a more realistic tweak for either setting. See, I agree with everybody here!

I'm just wishy-washy, I guess.

Syd Thrift · 04-19-2008, 02:10 PM

Pitchers were supposedly tougher but they also tended to burn out a lot earlier than they do now. To go to one extreme, a big part of why Cy Young is the lifetime victory leader is that he was the *only* pitcher from the 19th century who didn't burn out by the time he was 30. Most guys were done after a season or two in the box. Since then, pitchers have been throwing fewer innings per game but... well, let me put this in statistical form. Here are the career records of the top 3 guys in the NL in wins in the year listed

1930
----------
Ray Kremer 143-85
Pat Malone 130-92
Fat Freddie Fitzsimmons 217-146

1940
----------
Bucky Walters 198-160
Paul Derringer 223-212
Claude Passeau 162-150

1950
----------
Warren Spahn 363-245
Robin Roberts 286-245
Johnny Sain 139-116

1960
----------
Ernie Broglio 77-74
Spahn
Vern Law 162-147

1970
----------
Bob Gibson 251-174
Gaylord Perry 314-265
Fergie Jenkins 284-226

1980
----------
Steve Carlton 329-244
Joe Niekro 221-204
Jim Bibby 111-101

1990
-----------
Doug Drabek 155-134
Ramon Martinez 135-88
Frank Viola 176-150

2000
-----------
Tom Glavine 303-200
Daryl Kile 133-119
Randy Johnson 284-150
Greg Maddux 349-215

While I see fewer wins and losses per season, I'm not really seeing a dividing line where players start to have fewer wins and losses over the course of their career. If anything, the "worst" season for pitcher longevity was 1930, the first year of the study (fwiw, the 1920 leaders include Pete Alexander but also 270-win Burleigh Grimes and 216-victory Walker Cooper - I didn't include them because the pitching side of things changed incredibly between 1918 or so and the mid to late 20s). Simply put, pitchers are playing less but lasting longer so it evens out.

Now, what would be a good way to model this in OOTP? I think the game's already halfway there with the proneness ratings. If you made day-to-day injuries so common as to be something that *every* pitcher in the league had to experience, say, 3 or 4 times a season, you would create situations in which borderline as well as particularly brittle pitchers would get pulled out of starts early and/or miss starts entirely in order to save them. As you go back into earlier seasons, there would be fewer guys getting the hook, which is going to cause them to post bigger numbers initially but will ramp their proneness way up to the point that after a few years it would become virtually impossible for all but the hardiest of souls to go an entire year without suffering a serious injury (and the talent hits that accompany it).

Le Grande Orange · 04-19-2008, 02:17 PM

It's worth noting as well that the rules surrounding the Disabled List were a lot different in earlier years. For a long time the shorter-term DL was limited in the number of players that could be put on it (from just two to as many as five, depending on the year).

And before 1941 (except for a brief experiment in the NL in 1915-16), there was no DL at all. Clubs would have to decide whether to carry an injured player on the roster or release him (with the general understanding that an injured player given his release would be paid the balance of his salary for the year rather than the usual 10-day severance pay given to released players).

Certainly the rules teams had to work with in regards to the DL must have affected to some extent the usage of any injured players.

Syd Thrift · 04-19-2008, 02:28 PM

Sure... and this is an obvious point but I think needs to be said: we also didn't know nearly as much about the physiology of the arm as we do now. 80 years ago a torn ulnar ligament would have been diagnosed as a dead arm or a bum elbow and would have ended a player's career. Now we have Tommy John surgery. Rotator cuff tears are still pretty deadening but back in the day guys probably would have tried to pitch through the pain and ruined whatever chance they had of having their arm recuperate. There's a Roger Angell interview with Smokey Joe Wood in one of his books that talks about this in Wood's career.* Before baseball, there just was not, I don't think, a lot of reason to know about how the arms work in the way that there was reason to know how cholera infects or what have you.

When you have to make a decision between releasing a kid who was just throwing solid heat 2 weeks ago but now can't throw junk and paying his wages for the rest of the year, many, many people, particularly people who wouldn't know a humerus from Larry the Cable Guy, would ask the player to do what he could in the hopes that whatever was causing the problem just went away.

*IIRC the anthology is called Once More Around The Park and the interview is simply awesome not only because it's with one of baseball's great deadballists but takes place at a college game between Harvard and St. John's featuring Ron Darling and Frank Viola facing off against each other.

SittingDuck · 04-19-2008, 03:12 PM

Question:

is there some way of affecting a given player's proneness to injury (as I think Syd used the term)? Can this be done via the editor?

Syd Thrift · 04-19-2008, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SittingDuck

Question:

is there some way of affecting a given player's proneness to injury (as I think Syd used the term)? Can this be done via the editor?

Sure. You can edit proneness in the editor. There are actually four different varieties: arm proneness, leg proneness, body proneness, and "other" proneness (which gets bumps when a guy gets the flu or something).

SittingDuck · 04-19-2008, 03:25 PM

Awesome, thanks. Why I never noticed that, I don't know.

The Wolf · 04-19-2008, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

Yet, I share The Wolf's feelings about preferring the "low" setting because it may be more indicative of an earlier baseball era when pitchers were, well, tougher. I play only on "low" injuries for the same reason as him.

Yes. With the number of injured pitchers I've had with it, the injury setting of "normal" would be better named "catastrophic."

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

Yet, I welcome ctorg's suggestion as being a more realistic tweak for either setting.

Me too. I wouldn't mind so many injured pitchers so much if they tended to be out for one start as opposed to the rest of the season.

Syd Thrift · 04-20-2008, 12:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Me too. I wouldn't mind so many injured pitchers so much if they tended to be out for one start as opposed to the rest of the season.

I'd like to see more DtD injuries for pitchers. Some of those could linger on for much of the season, but IMO you should almost always be able to put a pitcher on the mound unless his arm has literally fallen off. Also, I don't think it's realistic to know the exact percentage that his ratings have taken. At the very least there ought to be an option to set it the way Puresim does it: knowing the nature of the injury is Mild, Moderate, or Severe.

SittingDuck · 04-20-2008, 12:53 PM

Which all just backs up my suggestion for frequency of injury for pitchers, as well as the ability to differentiate the various injury types as pitcher/hitter.

The Wolf · 04-20-2008, 03:21 PM

Having read through this thread several times now, I'm now convinced that we need one injury table for batters and a different one for pitchers, with different injury types, different injury durations, and different injury frequencies.

SittingDuck · 04-20-2008, 03:33 PM

Basically what I am saying. THis is what PSBB does well in it's injury model (most of which I don't like), and in that regard it's something that needs to be considered.

I was a major xml editor for that game's community closely following it's release years ago, so am extremely familiar with that game's injury model. There are quite a lot of aspects that OOTP could consider that would improve their game.

Theonlystd · 04-20-2008, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Lucky dogs. In four different leagues, I have had 9 pitchers down once (including all 5 starters), 12 down twice (all 5 starters down once, 4 starters down the other time), and 15 down once (all starters down plus all the starters who had been in AAA down as well).

Having just 7 down would be a pleasant change.

Really thats some awful luck

I find on Normal pitchers dont get injured nearly as much as they do in real life.. I dont have a Pitcher on the DL in either of my leagues atm and been that way for a bit now.. And thats pretty usual for me in ootp

Rainers · 04-24-2008, 12:35 PM

I was just reading an article in the New York Daily News about the Yankees trying to make sure Joba Chamberlain doesn't hurt his arm prematurely and they had some stats about the DL that i thought were interesting:

"In general, pitchers get hurt more often than position players, according to Rick Wilton, who runs a Web site called the Baseball Injury Report. Last year, 404 different players landed on the disabled list and 237 (58.7%) were pitchers. Those pitchers spent more than 65% of the total days spent on the DL, Wilton said." -- NY Daily News

The link for this article is :
Plans for Joba stir pitched battle

deadringer · 04-24-2008, 02:27 PM

To truly improve the injury model I'd like to see it and the fatigue engine combined. Call it the health meter or whatever. I'd like to see fatigue and injury have a direct effect on the players ratings. As a player fatigues or receives a minor injury his ratings getting dinged temporarily by a certain percent (much like day to day injuries do now) and the chance of a more serious injury goes up. I'd also love to see the rate at which the player heals to be directly effected by the amount of rest he gets.

Want your player to play through some pain of a minor injury? No problem, he just gets his ratings dinged and the chance of a more serious injury raises. Give him a day or two off and he heals faster than trying to play through it.

His fatigue should also be calculated in innings played consecutively, not the way it is now. That way if a guy gets the night off except a single pinch hit at bit he rests up a little, but not as much as a guy that has the whole night off.

04-18-2008, 10:14 AM	#21 (permalink)
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Brooklyn, NY Posts: 9,422	First, I really like the initial suggestion as a nice way of creating more customization for injuries. Second, I think there's a lot more work to do in regards to injury realism. As I've said before, the biggest problem to me is a lack of minor injuries to pitchers that push back their starts a couple of days or sideline them for a week without any real afteraffects. Setting injuries to low or high doesn't offset the problem of there being a not-quite-right proportion of the right kinds of injuries. __________________ THE VERY US ARTISTS - A project for musicians and visual artists My music Currently reading: Thirteen by Richard Morgan "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

04-19-2008, 02:17 PM	#27 (permalink)
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Scheduleslovakia Posts: 6,341	It's worth noting as well that the rules surrounding the Disabled List were a lot different in earlier years. For a long time the shorter-term DL was limited in the number of players that could be put on it (from just two to as many as five, depending on the year). And before 1941 (except for a brief experiment in the NL in 1915-16), there was no DL at all. Clubs would have to decide whether to carry an injured player on the roster or release him (with the general understanding that an injured player given his release would be paid the balance of his salary for the year rather than the usual 10-day severance pay given to released players). Certainly the rules teams had to work with in regards to the DL must have affected to some extent the usage of any injured players. __________________ . "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our abilities and skills, because that challenge is one we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win." . Last edited by Le Grande Orange : 04-19-2008 at 02:18 PM.

04-20-2008, 03:21 PM	#35 (permalink)
The Wolf Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Baying at the moon Posts: 3,443	Having read through this thread several times now, I'm now convinced that we need one injury table for batters and a different one for pitchers, with different injury types, different injury durations, and different injury frequencies. __________________ __________________ "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain

04-20-2008, 03:33 PM	#36 (permalink)
SittingDuck All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Richmond, VA Posts: 1,834	Basically what I am saying. THis is what PSBB does well in it's injury model (most of which I don't like), and in that regard it's something that needs to be considered. I was a major xml editor for that game's community closely following it's release years ago, so am extremely familiar with that game's injury model. There are quite a lot of aspects that OOTP could consider that would improve their game. Last edited by SittingDuck : 04-20-2008 at 03:35 PM.

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04-19-2008, 02:10 PM	#26 (permalink)
Syd Thrift Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 3,113	Pitchers were supposedly tougher but they also tended to burn out a lot earlier than they do now. To go to one extreme, a big part of why Cy Young is the lifetime victory leader is that he was the only pitcher from the 19th century who didn't burn out by the time he was 30. Most guys were done after a season or two in the box. Since then, pitchers have been throwing fewer innings per game but... well, let me put this in statistical form. Here are the career records of the top 3 guys in the NL in wins in the year listed 1930 ---------- Ray Kremer 143-85 Pat Malone 130-92 Fat Freddie Fitzsimmons 217-146 1940 ---------- Bucky Walters 198-160 Paul Derringer 223-212 Claude Passeau 162-150 1950 ---------- Warren Spahn 363-245 Robin Roberts 286-245 Johnny Sain 139-116 1960 ---------- Ernie Broglio 77-74 Spahn Vern Law 162-147 1970 ---------- Bob Gibson 251-174 Gaylord Perry 314-265 Fergie Jenkins 284-226 1980 ---------- Steve Carlton 329-244 Joe Niekro 221-204 Jim Bibby 111-101 1990 ----------- Doug Drabek 155-134 Ramon Martinez 135-88 Frank Viola 176-150 2000 ----------- Tom Glavine 303-200 Daryl Kile 133-119 Randy Johnson 284-150 Greg Maddux 349-215 While I see fewer wins and losses per season, I'm not really seeing a dividing line where players start to have fewer wins and losses over the course of their career. If anything, the "worst" season for pitcher longevity was 1930, the first year of the study (fwiw, the 1920 leaders include Pete Alexander but also 270-win Burleigh Grimes and 216-victory Walker Cooper - I didn't include them because the pitching side of things changed incredibly between 1918 or so and the mid to late 20s). Simply put, pitchers are playing less but lasting longer so it evens out. Now, what would be a good way to model this in OOTP? I think the game's already halfway there with the proneness ratings. If you made day-to-day injuries so common as to be something that every pitcher in the league had to experience, say, 3 or 4 times a season, you would create situations in which borderline as well as particularly brittle pitchers would get pulled out of starts early and/or miss starts entirely in order to save them. As you go back into earlier seasons, there would be fewer guys getting the hook, which is going to cause them to post bigger numbers initially but will ramp their proneness way up to the point that after a few years it would become virtually impossible for all but the hardiest of souls to go an entire year without suffering a serious injury (and the talent hits that accompany it).

04-19-2008, 02:28 PM	#28 (permalink)
Syd Thrift Banned Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 3,113	Sure... and this is an obvious point but I think needs to be said: we also didn't know nearly as much about the physiology of the arm as we do now. 80 years ago a torn ulnar ligament would have been diagnosed as a dead arm or a bum elbow and would have ended a player's career. Now we have Tommy John surgery. Rotator cuff tears are still pretty deadening but back in the day guys probably would have tried to pitch through the pain and ruined whatever chance they had of having their arm recuperate. There's a Roger Angell interview with Smokey Joe Wood in one of his books that talks about this in Wood's career.* Before baseball, there just was not, I don't think, a lot of reason to know about how the arms work in the way that there was reason to know how cholera infects or what have you. When you have to make a decision between releasing a kid who was just throwing solid heat 2 weeks ago but now can't throw junk and paying his wages for the rest of the year, many, many people, particularly people who wouldn't know a humerus from Larry the Cable Guy, would ask the player to do what he could in the hopes that whatever was causing the problem just went away. IIRC the anthology is called Once More Around The Park* and the interview is simply awesome not only because it's with one of baseball's great deadballists but takes place at a college game between Harvard and St. John's featuring Ron Darling and Frank Viola facing off against each other.

04-19-2008, 03:12 PM	#29 (permalink)
SittingDuck All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Richmond, VA Posts: 1,834	Question: is there some way of affecting a given player's proneness to injury (as I think Syd used the term)? Can this be done via the editor?

04-19-2008, 03:25 PM	#31 (permalink)
SittingDuck All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Richmond, VA Posts: 1,834	Awesome, thanks. Why I never noticed that, I don't know.

04-20-2008, 12:53 PM	#34 (permalink)
SittingDuck All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Richmond, VA Posts: 1,834	Which all just backs up my suggestion for frequency of injury for pitchers, as well as the ability to differentiate the various injury types as pitcher/hitter.

04-24-2008, 12:35 PM	#38 (permalink)
Rainers Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Seattle Posts: 26	I was just reading an article in the New York Daily News about the Yankees trying to make sure Joba Chamberlain doesn't hurt his arm prematurely and they had some stats about the DL that i thought were interesting: "In general, pitchers get hurt more often than position players, according to Rick Wilton, who runs a Web site called the Baseball Injury Report. Last year, 404 different players landed on the disabled list and 237 (58.7%) were pitchers. Those pitchers spent more than 65% of the total days spent on the DL, Wilton said." -- NY Daily News The link for this article is : Plans for Joba stir pitched battle

04-24-2008, 02:27 PM	#39 (permalink)
deadringer All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: La Grande, Oregon Posts: 671	To truly improve the injury model I'd like to see it and the fatigue engine combined. Call it the health meter or whatever. I'd like to see fatigue and injury have a direct effect on the players ratings. As a player fatigues or receives a minor injury his ratings getting dinged temporarily by a certain percent (much like day to day injuries do now) and the chance of a more serious injury goes up. I'd also love to see the rate at which the player heals to be directly effected by the amount of rest he gets. Want your player to play through some pain of a minor injury? No problem, he just gets his ratings dinged and the chance of a more serious injury raises. Give him a day or two off and he heals faster than trying to play through it. His fatigue should also be calculated in innings played consecutively, not the way it is now. That way if a guy gets the night off except a single pinch hit at bit he rests up a little, but not as much as a guy that has the whole night off.