94 HR in a season

[DrSatan]

So I was running this historical sim right, and I managed the Detroit Tigers until 1948 and got bored. I decided to set the auto sim for about 100 years and let it rip. I stopped it around 2041 and decided I wanted the league to re-adopt the 4 man rotation. I set it, but it wouldn't stick. The following year it switched back to 5. So I looked at the settings and unchecked "Automatically adjust league total modifiers after each season". I thought for some reason this would keep the stategic tendencies where I set them. I misread the setting, but no big deal...so I thought. For the next three seasons HR production has doubled. The 2045 league leader in HR's had 94. Several people hit over 80hrs and 200 RBI. The league totals are the same as they were before I changed the setting, and so are the modifiers. I'm a little confused how the totals and modifiers work. For example, the total for HR's is 455 and the modifier is .238. This seems low, shouldn't the league total be the number of HR's to expect from the league as a total? I can find like 6 guys who's totals beat that. So, my first question is has anybody seen anything like this? Second, can someone explain the league modifier, or point me in the direction of an explanation? Third, how can I change the general strategic tendencies so they won't change after the first of the year?

P.S. I simmed using real players for 145 years, so if anybody wants some numbers for particular players, or records, just let me know. As it stands, Babe Ruth is 4th on the hr list with 890. Once the modern era came around, things got silly. Sosa hit over 50hrs for 12 straight seasons.

[RonCo]

League totals are not the number of XX that should be expected to occur in a season. League totals are poorly named in that way. They are, instead, to be taken as rates of a league average battle between hitter and pitcher (even then they aren't quite that since they are manually entered rather than determined from the ratings of players in the league itself).

For example, you can enter:

AB: 100
HR: 10

or

AB: 10000
HR: 1000

into your league totals and you can expect the same power performance in the two leagues overall--all result calculations for pitcher/hitter matchups will get compared to a league average of .10 HR/AB.

Oddly, this means that if you INCREASE the League Total of HR, you will get fewer HR across the league. This is because the results engine is being told that the average hitter in the league as a whole is better, so the liklihood of a HR in any particular AB is adjusted down.

So changing the above example to:

AB: 100
HR: 20

or

AB: 10000
HR: 2000

will, on average, result in quite a few less HRs hit across your league than one using the first set.

[RonCo]

To be explicit, your league total is 455 HR. .238 of that = 108.3. Since that modifer is positive, I assume you're asking for more HR. I'm guessing that game then adjusts your HR League total down by 108, so the new operational HR League Total = 347.

So if I'm correct you can use:

HR: 455, Modifier: .238

or

HR: 347, Modifier: None

To mean the same thing.

Either way, the actual HR/AB rate across the league will be determined by the final HR League Total divided by the AB League total, then influenced by park factors and the skills of the players in the league.

[RonCo]

Actually, thinking about it for a moment longer, Marksu probably applies the multiplier to the result of the base rate.

LEAGUE AVE. HR Rate = LTHR/LTAB + (LTHR/LTAB * MOD)

[Tony M]

I've been told that you should NEVER, NEVER, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES alter the League Totals, only the Modifiers

This is a painstaking way of doing it, but seems to yield better results. If you were to take the following league

AB : 10000
H : 3000
2B : 500
3B : 50
HR : 400
BB : 1000
K : 5000
HBP : 100

and put them in the league totals you'd get a set of results that just looks odd...

what you need to do is scale them up so they're based on the 167353 AB's the default engine has, so that would return for the example above around 50000 H. You then divide that value by the standard league total for hits (I belive 44522 or something) to get the modifier you need.

[RonCo]

I do all my league totals based on 1,000,000 AB and make adjustments all the time without using modifiers. Using 1,000,000 AB as a baseline makes the % adjustment easy to understand. I get really good looking results for all levels of majors and minors using this approach.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by redsoxford

If you were to take the following league

AB : 10000
H : 3000
2B : 500
3B : 50
HR : 400
BB : 1000
K : 5000
HBP : 100

and put them in the league totals you'd get a set of results that just looks odd...

You might well get results that look odd. But that would be because the balance of Totals vs. ratings in the league are off. Two leagues using the exact same league totals will get very different results if their players are fundamentally different. This is one reason so many people get upset at OOTP minor league stats (especially in the old days when I think minor leagues and major leagues used the same league totals).

If you don't understand league totals, you'll be confused when you get results that seem odd.

[RonCo]

To me, the use of modifiers is the confusing part. Give me raw league totals changes any day of the week.

[DrSatan]

Originally Posted by DrSatan

So I was running this historical sim right, and I managed the Detroit Tigers until 1948 and got bored. I decided to set the auto sim for about 100 years and let it rip. I stopped it around 2041 and decided I wanted the league to re-adopt the 4 man rotation. I set it, but it wouldn't stick. The following year it switched back to 5. So I looked at the settings and unchecked "Automatically adjust league total modifiers after each season". I thought for some reason this would keep the stategic tendencies where I set them. I misread the setting, but no big deal...so I thought. For the next three seasons HR production has doubled. The 2045 league leader in HR's had 94. Several people hit over 80hrs and 200 RBI. The league totals are the same as they were before I changed the setting, and so are the modifiers. I'm a little confused how the totals and modifiers work. For example, the total for HR's is 455 and the modifier is .238. This seems low, shouldn't the league total be the number of HR's to expect from the league as a total? I can find like 6 guys who's totals beat that. So, my first question is has anybody seen anything like this? Second, can someone explain the league modifier, or point me in the direction of an explanation? Third, how can I change the general strategic tendencies so they won't change after the first of the year?

P.S. I simmed using real players for 145 years, so if anybody wants some numbers for particular players, or records, just let me know. As it stands, Babe Ruth is 4th on the hr list with 890. Once the modern era came around, things got silly. Sosa hit over 50hrs for 12 straight seasons.

The only I change I made was unselecting the auto import league modifiers. Ever since I did that, people are putting up crazy numbers. However, the league totals and modifiers were not changed. They just stayed the same. Also, the year was 2041 when I made the change, so there shouldn't have been any historical settings to import. Is this a bug? It doesn't make sense to have a bunch of guys hitting 70-94 hrs a season when none of the modifiers were changed. The only change made that coincides with the hr increase was unchecking one setting.

[Tony M]

Originally Posted by RonCo

To me, the use of modifiers is the confusing part. Give me raw league totals changes any day of the week.

I agree with you there. I'd prefer to stick, say the IL, figures straight in without trying to work out how they 'modify' the original set.