I preordered.. but this better not happen in OOTP9

[Mikecouil]

Originally Posted by billethius

As far as I can tell, his ratings haven't changed that much. He went from 7/7/8 to 6/7/7. Baseball history is littered with guys who were good to great for a few years and then settled into mediocrity.

Mark Fydrich
Barry Zito
Dontrelle Willis
and very well could be Johan Santana

[mrbill]

Originally Posted by Mikecouil

Mark Fydrich
Barry Zito
Dontrelle Willis
and very well could be Johan Santana

Again, Fidrych tore his rotator cuff (and knew it, they just didn't know how to diagnose it), Zito's trail-off has been slow and moderate, Willis has always been wild and inconsistent and Santana is still a #1 with possibly a slight decline.

Maybe it would help if I projected JC's stats for this year. Probably a 4.6 ERA with a 5 VORP over 140 IP. I project him to be in the minors or on a non-contender next year. Basically, he's going to pull a Lima.

None of the named pitchers in this thread have done that without being much older or suffering a pretty substantial injury. Willis is a favorite for people but I just never thought he was consistent with his control. His career K/9 is actually ridiculously consistent, its just his control came and went in the span of about 1.5 seasons. To me, that means he never really had it, he's basically Oliver Perez, who just doesn't have the discipline in his delivery to win over the years.

JCs stats are very consistent and now start the sudden decline with no good explanation, unless you consider the possibility of an undiagnosed injury, which could explain Willis as well. For now, that's the theory I work with, and just hope OOTP can model long-term lingering injuries better in the future.

[enuttage]

Um, it appears that he's progressing to the mean. Everything but the ERA seems to be almost back in line.

On top of that, the point of the Dontrelle Willis comparo is that he could be equally inconsistent, whatever the cause.

It's only been three seasons.

Anyway, this particular example seems nearly moot at this point.

[Cardinal Rule]

Originally Posted by mrbill

JCs stats are very consistent and now start the sudden decline with no good explanation, unless you consider the possibility of an undiagnosed injury, which could explain Willis as well. For now, that's the theory I work with, and just hope OOTP can model long-term lingering injuries better in the future.

So in other words, he's Mark Mulder in 2004. No one knew he had injuries (or at least no one said) but it was obvious something very bad was going on just before the AS break in 04.

Bottom line to me - some people love the unpredictability, some would rather not see a guy degrade that fast for no apparent reason. So sure, the modeling can get better OR the game engine could include a pre-degrade injury to explain it more realistically. Another option is to include a headline about the player in question getting caught using PEDs and the sudden decline is explained by the fact that he's now clean...

[9lives]

Joel Pineiro
Joel Pineiro Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

[edm]

I wont say I agree or disagree that this is a problem. No doubt it occurs in real life, but whether it occurs too much in ootp I can't say because I haven't looked into it enough. But I just had my ace, 26 year old pitcher, take a major ratings hit in about two weeks time (from when the playoffs began to when they ended).

In four seasons he was 63-32 with a 2.92 ERA (career high 2.18). In 901 career innings he has 853 K's, 294 BB's, and has allowed just 801 hits. Career WHIP of 1.22.

He has always been rated with 80 Pot. since I drafted him #1 (20-80 scale) and peaked with around a 78 rating. His stuff-movement-control (7-8-7). No doubt a stud pitcher. He has been relatively injury free, averaging 33 starts a year.

Well, apparently over the coarse of the playoffs he had a major drop. I checked his contract status for arbitration and noticed his potential and overall rating are both 20-20. Ouch! And his stuff-movement-control potential is now 3-5-5 The only good news is this happened before I signed him to a big deal. but I cringe to think of the numbers he will put up next season.

Again, I'm not complaining, I actually think it a good thing that this kind of thing happens. but it's still frustrating when it does.

Just out of curiosity though, has anyone tinkered with 'talent change randomness'? I assume lowering this would reduce this kind of thing from happening, but would also reduce the chances of a lower drafted player becoming a star?

[edm]

In a related question, are the chances any greater that a player, like the one in my post above, will rebound to be a very good starter again, at some point. Or are his chances the same as every other player with similar 'mediocre' ratings? I'm just wondering if it's worth the risk to lock him up for a few years, while I can get him on the cheap, in hopes he'll regain some of his old ratings?

[mrbill]

Originally Posted by edm

In a related question, are the chances any greater that a player, like the one in my post above, will rebound to be a very good starter again, at some point. Or are his chances the same as every other player with similar 'mediocre' ratings? I'm just wondering if it's worth the risk to lock him up for a few years, while I can get him on the cheap, in hopes he'll regain some of his old ratings?

I've seen people bounce back some, but I'm not sure its enough to really make it more than any other player getting an increase. JC actually bounced back from a talent drop a couple seasons ago, not as high as he was, and now he's lower than that first drop. With his ratings just above his talent, I can only hope he finds a little boost so he doesn't suffer the final drop to his potential, which would end his career.

[edm]

I gave Maximo one full season in the rotation, i figured he deserved that, but it wasn't pretty. He did manage to win 15 games, but also lost 15 and had a 5.90 ERA.

Here is his page Máximo Ramírez check out his strikeouts/walks this past season compared to the previous three. I ended up letting him go after the season but resigned him to a minor league deal. Who knows, maybe he can turn it around. Oh Maximo, we hardly knew ya.

[Antonin]

Originally Posted by Tekneek

Not always because of injuries, though. I can't think of specific names at this time, but I can remember guys who just seemed to lose it when they appeared to be at least very solid major leaguers.

Like Travis Hafner, the DH of the Cleveland Indians.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Dogzilla

While talent drops should be common for young players, it should only rarely drop them below a level they have already achieved in any given ability. This seems to happen much too often, IMO.

Actually, I think they should drop here and there (hitters adjust). But, I think they should be able to rise after that pitcher adjust. (so maybe next season back where it was. But, too often once they drop they never recover. This does happen in real life, but also a lot of times in real life they adjust and recover.

Course, if he is doing well despite, I'd ride that horse till he quits on me.

My main problem with rating drops seem to be fielding. I shouldnt have an 18 year old whose glove is the second coming of Ozzie Smith and next year be the second coming of Dick Stuart (if you know, Dr. Strangeglove was a Middle IF ).

[mrbill]

Well, follow-up time Here's JC again - Player Report for #79 JC 'Short Circuit' Maldonado

Despite a career-best .297 BABIP, he managed only a 5.9 VORP over 150 IP. His career 3:1 K:BB ratio dropped to 1.7:1 and his HR rate jumped from 1 ever 12 IP to one ever 7 IP. Post-trade on 7/5, he posted a 6.32 ERA.

Looks like JC might get cut to avoid his 3.5m arbitration, and then picked up maybe as a 5th starter on some below average team. Was a good career while it lasted.