I preordered.. but this better not happen in OOTP9

[mrbill]

Player Report for #79 JC 'Short Circuit' Maldonado

This guy has 3 great major league seasons, 40-27 with a 3.49 ERA and 115 VORP. He's now lost so much talent this year that he'll likely be a career minor leaguer starting in about June. One finger blister is all he's ever had for injuries.

This makes me hate OOTP 2007 and only what I've read that this is better is getting me to buy OOTP 9. But, if this happens as often as it does now, consider me retired from OOTP.

[billethius]

Originally Posted by mrbill

Player Report for #79 JC 'Short Circuit' Maldonado

This guy has 3 great major league seasons, 40-27 with a 3.49 ERA and 115 VORP. He's now lost so much talent this year that he'll likely be a career minor leaguer starting in about June. One finger blister is all he's ever had for injuries.

This makes me hate OOTP 2007 and only what I've read that this is better is getting me to buy OOTP 9. But, if this happens as often as it does now, consider me retired from OOTP.

As far as I can tell, his ratings haven't changed that much. He went from 7/7/8 to 6/7/7. Baseball history is littered with guys who were good to great for a few years and then settled into mediocrity.

[Kelric]

Originally Posted by billethius

As far as I can tell, his ratings haven't changed that much. He went from 7/7/8 to 6/7/7. Baseball history is littered with guys who were good to great for a few years and then settled into mediocrity.

Usually, I would think, because of injuries. Of course, while this player probably won't put up a 3.22 in 230 IP, this IS a small sample size in 2026. 14.1 IP in 3 games is hardly the notice of the end of his career.

[Tekneek]

Not always because of injuries, though. I can't think of specific names at this time, but I can remember guys who just seemed to lose it when they appeared to be at least very solid major leaguers.

[dryfly07]

Have you made any changes to your league settings for talent change randomness? If not, maybe start there.

Also, like the others said, the current season provides a very small sample size for what this pitcher might do for the remainder of the season. His current WHIP and BABIP are close to those of previous seasons. Also, if you project hits allowed, BB allowed, and K's, the only number that projects worse than his previous seasons are the number of BB's. But, as in real life, projections this early in the season usually aren't very accurate.

[mrbill]

Oh come on now guys This guy is clearly toast. His ratings dropped from 6/7/7 to 5/6/7 with the talent drop, and they're only going to go down, as the talent change just happened a month ago. He should eventually get down to 4/5/6, or maybe a little higher if I'm lucky.

AFAIK, there's been no tweaking of development settings at all. But, we've seen a lot of early to mid 20s pitchers just fall off the cliff, and a few hitters as well. It's just like the development algorithm doesn't realize they've fulfilled their potential and it treats their talent as it does some undeveloped prospect.

Also, from reading the boards, this has been a known issue. I'm just re-voicing my annoyance with the development algorithm.

Yes, of course there's cases in real life where pitchers start strong and then fade. But how many put up 3 full, very good seasons then just magically die? JC will be lucky to be positive VORP over the course of the season, and he'll probably be removed from my rotation if he loses any more ratings.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by mrbill

Player Report for #79 JC 'Short Circuit' Maldonado

This guy has 3 great major league seasons, 40-27 with a 3.49 ERA and 115 VORP. He's now lost so much talent this year that he'll likely be a career minor leaguer starting in about June. One finger blister is all he's ever had for injuries.

This makes me hate OOTP 2007 and only what I've read that this is better is getting me to buy OOTP 9. But, if this happens as often as it does now, consider me retired from OOTP.

Hm. His BABIP is the lowest of his career so far. His WHIP isn't bad. His K/IP is above his career average. I'm not sure what you're worried about after just 14 innings.

[remangiii]

Originally Posted by mrbill

Yes, of course there's cases in real life where pitchers start strong and then fade. But how many put up 3 full, very good seasons then just magically die? JC will be lucky to be positive VORP over the course of the season, and he'll probably be removed from my rotation if he loses any more ratings.

Zito, Barry.

[enuttage]

Similar to these guys?

Dontrelle Willis Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

Jose Lima Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

Although I should stress that if there is a potential problem, I'm not trying to minimize it. Just saying that it does happen.

[Dogzilla]

While talent drops should be common for young players, it should only rarely drop them below a level they have already achieved in any given ability. This seems to happen much too often, IMO.

[BadluckinOOTP]

When a 21 year throws 230 innings, and 200+ the next two years his arm would probably get a little dead. Lose velocity, lose bite on his breaking ball, etc...

[Lucas718]

Trade him.

[enuttage]

Originally Posted by BadluckinOOTP

When a 21 year throws 230 innings, and 200+ the next two years his arm would probably get a little dead. Lose velocity, lose bite on his breaking ball, etc...

See also...

Dontrelle Willis (TBD)

Originally Posted by Lucas718

Trade him.

roffle

[Zitofan75]

My screen name alone should serve as a reminder to people when they say "this should never happen" ... no it shouldn't. Sadly it does however, sometimes to guys with 7-8 years in the big leagues.

[zuty]

If everything happened the way it "should happen," wouldn't all our favorite teams win championships every year? Wouldn't football have no neck and back injuries to popular players? Wouldn't basketball not turn into a selfish, egotistical game? Wouldn't baseball be free of steroids?

I like to come up with "reasons" why things happen, when I'm playing a fictional world such as OOTP. There are lots of possible reasons why your friend JC could fall off the table after three years in the bigs. I don't think it's fair to claim that the game is broken because 14 innings into year four, he's not showing the same skill set he had the year before.

And I think it would be a shame for you and your obvious enjoyment of OOTP to "retire from" the game because a pitcher didn't turn out the way you'd hoped.

Fiction! Game! Fun! Joy!

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by zuty

If everything happened the way it "should happen," wouldn't all our favorite teams win championships every year?

No, I'm pretty sure that if everything happened the way it "should", my Mariners would never win the World Series then, either.

[mrbill]

I think I'd deal if it was rare, but development is pretty mean to players who are already accomplished in OOTP 2007. He's actually had a worse drop-off already, last season, and got a little talent back to prevent him from being out of baseball already

Development Report - JC Maldonado

Obviously I don't have time to compile large sample sizes, but I look at my online league's development pretty closely and it's pretty alarming how many young pitchers die off even after reaching their potential.

Yes, JC did pitch 200 innings the last three years, but he's got a 9 endurance, are you telling me the game is so complex that I have to somehow override the endurance rating to keep young pitchers alive?

And yes, Zito, Willis and others all sort of got worse, none will end up this dramatic. His "current" stats look ok because its only 3 games and his slide is just starting, I have no doubt he'll end up out of the majors after this season. Zito still took years to get worse, his FIP (fangraphs.com) is on a very slow slide spread over 6 seasons. Willis was never that established, he's had a lot of ups and downs because he never really had much control.

If JC took a Zito-like slide, I'd be ok with that. But that'd mean he'd have to manage 2 more years around a 4.3 ERA then a few in the mid 4s. I should wonder whether or not he actually lost anything or if it's just a bad streak. I'll give him a shot to do it, but I have no hope. Seeing the talent makes taints my view, but his ratings too are changing fast. He was 7/7/8 less than 12 months ago, now 5/6/7.

I just have hope for the next version to smooth out the dramatic drops in ratings, I think I've read that it will, so I'm just reiterating how important that is

[Kelric]

I'm with you that established players get talent and rating drops way too often way too quickly in their 20s in OOTP without injuries.

[enuttage]

Originally Posted by mrbill

And yes, Zito, Willis and others all sort of got worse, none will end up this dramatic.

Might want to look at Willis and Lima again. Very much as bad.

That being said, I'm again simply arguing a minor point within your thesis, not necessarily disproving it entirely.

[mrbill]

I hadn't looked at Lima, I think JC is about to be a reincarnation of Lima Time. I never was that high on Willis, at least in a roto sense, and his last 3 years have been pretty inconsistent.

I'd say that if Willis was in OOTP-land, he'd never have really reached his potential, or he just would have had low control to start with and an aberrant year or two where he found a little control. I don't think he really fell off the cliff, although Detroit is going to feel like it for the next 6 years