Many redundant names?

[BPS]

I randomly clicked on one of SkyDog's pages and what jumped out at me is the high frequency of redundant names in this list.

As examples, we have:
Manager Javier Aguilera 62 8
Hitting Coach Javier Aguilera 60 13
which appears to be two different people with the same name.
...
Manager Dave Collins 47 7
Manager Dave Collins 47 12
which might be the same person given the same age (47) but different years experiences (7 vs. 12) as manager!
...
Hitting Coach José González 56 23
Pitching Coach José González 56 2
Are these two different people or one person who, oddly, was a hitting coach for 23 years and a pitching coach (!) for two years?
...
Hitting Coach André Isberg 44 8
Manager André Isberg 44 7
Same person?

...
Hitting Coach José Mendoza 55 2
Pitching Coach José Mendoza 57 17
Pitching Coach José Mendoza 57 0
Here we have three fellows with the same name or only two? But pitching coach with the same name and age but different years experience.

[OldFatGuy]

I've seen this a lot in all of my games so far too, on OOTP 8, and it seems most of the time its with the hispanic names.

[BPS]

Here's 4 names that appear one after another in this list:

Pitching Coach José Ortíz 43 5
Pitching Coach José Ortíz 61 21
Pitching Coach Pedro Ortíz 58 15
Pitching Coach Pedro Ortíz 59 0

[OldFatGuy]

I just clicked on Personnel Search and Player Search under the Manager Menu, and sorted by name and found these repeats. (All twice except the one noted and there were three of those) And this DOES NOT include those names that may be redundant because one is a player and one a "personnel." I'm not sure how many of these occur in RL, but this does seem high to me as well.

Floyd Brown
Juan Castro
Eric Dyer
Carlos Garcia (3)
Juan Gonzalez
Jose Gutierrez
Amando Martinez
Jose Martinez
Ricardo Perez
Fernando Ramirez
Carlos Rodriguez
Eduardo Romero
Chris Simpson
John Smith (lol, and they were both OF)

[Erik W.]

Names are generated based on a DB of name data pulled from censuses or something. Basically a name is supposed to have the chance of occurance around the same percentage as it actually occurs in that country.

So if a name is very common in a certain country (Jose Gonzales sticks out right away) there is a good chance there will be more than one in your multi-year sim.

For the record, the name I mentioned above does occur quite a bit in real baseball.

Search for a Player - Baseball-Reference.com

[OldFatGuy]

But in my case I'm in the league's first year of existance. Does that not seem like a big number in that case or do think it's about right??? I really don't know, that's why I didn't post before. But this is the 5th game I've started and noticed multiple repeat names in each case, and maybe that's the way it should be. Seems high to me is all.

[Erik W.]

Originally Posted by OldFatGuy

But in my case I'm in the league's first year of existance. Does that not seem like a big number in that case or do think it's about right??? I really don't know, that's why I didn't post before. But this is the 5th game I've started and noticed multiple repeat names in each case, and maybe that's the way it should be. Seems high to me is all.

It may seem a bit high, but that's the chance you take when dealing with a random number generator.

I started a new league the other night and I can't find any repeat name combinations. But amusingly I do have two players with the last name "Commo" on my team, both from different parts of Canada.

Oh, that wacky RNG.

[OldFatGuy]

Originally Posted by Erik W.

It may seem a bit high, but that's the chance you take when dealing with a random number generator.

I started a new league the other night and I can't find any repeat name combinations. But amusingly I do have two players with the last name "Commo" on my team, both from different parts of Canada.

Oh, that wacky RNG.

OK, thanks.

[Treches]

Garcia and those surnames that end in "-ez" (Fernandez, Gomez, Perez, etc.) are the most common in Spain and the Hispanic countries (a corruption from latin's genitive ending "-is": i.e. from "filius Martinis", son of Martin, to "Martinez", son of Martin). Usually, those ending in "-es" (Gonzales, Fernandes, Gomes, etc.), albeit also a corruption from the latin genitive, are of Portuguese origin. IRC, Jose is the most common given name, so chances for a Hispanic fella named Jose Gonzalez to pop up should be pretty high. Say Joe Smith or John Williams.

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by OldFatGuy

John Smith (lol, and they were both OF)

Imagine the madness that would cause on wikipedia in real life lol.

[enuttage]

Remember the David Nelson problem on the no fly lists after Homeland Security fired up?

That was good.

[BPS]

Originally Posted by Erik W.

Basically a name is supposed to have the chance of occurance around the same percentage as it actually occurs in that country.

The fact that rare events do occur by random chance does not prove that all (apparently) rare events are caused by random chance.

From the page cited above:
Manager Dave Collins 47 7
Manager Dave Collins 47 12

What are the odds of the above?: two managers with the same name born in the same year. This suggest it is reasonable to consider the possibility that redundant names are created by a process independent of a random number generator.

Plus, when you see in the same list:

Hitting Coach André Isberg 44 8
Manager André Isberg 44 7

The question arises as to whether the above is actually the same person (listed twice, but why?) or two people with the same name born in the same year.

It might be that that pseudo-random number generator is more pseudo than real OR that the list of names is too small OR that somewhere along the way the same individual gets spawned (by some force we don't yet fully understand but most likely caused by space aliens.)

[OldFatGuy]

Originally Posted by BPS

The fact that rare events do occur by random chance does not prove that all (apparently) rare events are caused by random chance.

From the page cited above:
Manager Dave Collins 47 7
Manager Dave Collins 47 12

What are the odds of the above?: two managers with the same name born in the same year. This suggest it is reasonable to consider the possibility that redundant names are created by a process independent of a random number generator.

Plus, when you see in the same list:

Hitting Coach André Isberg 44 8
Manager André Isberg 44 7

The question arises as to whether the above is actually the same person (listed twice, but why?) or two people with the same name born in the same year.

You can go into their peronnel page and check the city they're born in to see if they're the same person, though I doubt it. I've found myself several times checking players with the same last name to see if I could find instances of "brothers" in the bigs, but haven't so far. (I know, I'm weird, its just another one of those little "immersion" quirks I look for, makes the "fiction" in fictional play more fun when you can find stuff like that)

[Long_Long_Name]

I went to a concert last night, and both the guitarist and the bassist were called Martin Robert.

[BPS]

Originally Posted by Long_Long_Name

I went to a concert last night, and both the guitarist and the bassist were called Martin Robert.

I remember seeing the Ramones: none of the band members were related but they all had the same last name, "Ramone." I guess that more-or-less proves that I shouldn't be worried about the redundant names in OOTP.

[jaguar8311]

That was their stage name

[BPS]

Originally Posted by jaguar8311

That was their stage name

Note the " " above.

If told that, say, 4 unrelated people in a band had the same name, some here would reply "clearly this is explained by random chance" and believe they had explained this coincidence. But, of course, the Romones case is something that, while it could be the result of random chance, was not the result of random chance.

The frequency of people with the same name (and at the same time the same age) in OOTP in certain situations could be explained by saying we've merely observed a very low probability event. But a reasonable person (very aware of basic notions of probability) might consider that some non-random process might have been involved instead.

Those who argue that anything that could have happened by random chance had to have been caused by random chance are revealing a fairly unsophisticated understanding of probability theory and logic.

[Erik W.]

Good thing I'm unsophisticated, otherwise I might realize I had just been called stupid.

[Long_Long_Name]

Originally Posted by BPS

I remember seeing the Ramones: none of the band members were related but they all had the same last name, "Ramone." I guess that more-or-less proves that I shouldn't be worried about the redundant names in OOTP.

You seem awfully wise-ass in this post. Of course, the Ramones used stage names, unlikes the guys I brought up, and I never claimed to prove anything...

I really think this board should get rid of the smiley, it seems to cause more trouble than pleasure.

[BPS]

Originally Posted by Erik W.

Good thing I'm unsophisticated, otherwise I might realize I had just been called stupid.

"Unsophisticated" does not equal "stupid." I don't think anyone here is stupid.

But I think a case can be made that some here don't understand probability theory as well as they think they do.

My presumption is that I've observed an event that, if randomness was the cause, happens less than 1% of the time. Standard operating procedure is, for the statistically inclined, then to presume that the observation of something so rare recommends the observer seriously consider that randomness was not the cause. Such a rare event does not prove a non-random event has happened but it makes the dismissal of such an observation as "mere chance" improper.

The above is just standard statistical thinking.