Proposed Fictional League Dev/Aging Modifiers

RonCo · 06-22-2008, 11:48 PM

I've been fiddling with aging and development modifiers for fictional leagues. I've pretty much settled on:

Batter Aging: 2.00
Batter Dev: .5
Pitcher Aging: 1.75
Pitcher Dev: .5

If I get some time I'll post a bunch of supporting data, but I warn that I'm really busy during the week.

Kuttner · 06-23-2008, 08:16 AM

Would love to see this. The Aging/Development modifiers are still an area I feel I struggle with.

RonCo · 06-28-2008, 10:07 PM

http://www.typosphere.com/Age_and_De..._Modifiers.pdf

RonCo · 06-28-2008, 10:13 PM

The bottom line here is that there does not seem to be a "perfect" setting. These numbers will work to get you an offensive environment that roughly resembles 1988 in most fashions, but provides players who peak and grow in ways that seem closest to "real life" to my eyes.

Ben E Lou · 06-29-2008, 05:34 AM

I ran an overnight sim using these, combined with my stats modifiers. Things look pretty good on a global level. Players are peaking at a better time, and fewer guys are playing into their 40s, but some are. However, on a player-by-player basis, there's a pretty major issue with pitchers getting very low strikeout totals as they get later in their careers. I'm talking 200+ IP with less than 50 strikeouts in a season. I'm looking at one player card right now. This guy had 12 straights seasons of 200+ Ks from age 24 to 35, but as he got older...

AGE 34: 254.1 IP, 284 Ks
AGE 35: 257.2 IP, 253 Ks
AGE 36: 213.1 IP, 158 Ks
AGE 37: 259.2 IP, 134 Ks
AGE 38: 234.1 IP, 80 Ks
AGE 39: 261 IP, 45 Ks
AGE 40: 229.1 IP, 48 Ks
AGE 41: 134.2 IP, 20 Ks
AGE 42: 212 IP, 20 Ks
AGE 43: 188.2 IP, 21 Ks

This is by no means isolated, It's happening for most. I'm having a very hard time finding a pitcher 39 or up with even 120 Ks. The best I've found so far is a guy who threw 215.2 IP with 90 Ks. This guy had 300 Ks six times in his 20s and early 30s, and even had 280-260 at ages 35 and 36. It's a very harsh dropoff. Incidentally, the latter guy was effective with those 90 Ks: 17-8, 4.05. It wouldn't be a big deal if these guys were just dropping off to being crappy players, but they're pitching rather effectively for several seasons with these very low strikeout totals.

It may be that we're dealing with a "pick your poison" issue here.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 07:45 AM

Yes, it's a "Pick your poison" issue because OOTP stuff falls off too hard after age 37 (as you can see on the Stuff charts). If you don't drive ading faster you get pitcher Movement being way too good for older pitchers, and if you do drive aging faster you get Stuff quite a bit too bad. I picked where I did because it made most everything else better when I looked at things.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 07:55 AM

Another part of the issue is the OOTP AI, which allows a pitcher with 20Ks in 180 IP to continue to pitch. My league includes a 44-yo, for example, who threw 145 innings with a 6.32 ERA (9K, 37 BB, 17 HR--realize that HR total is very low, too, but the HRA stat is not a very sexy stat so not many people pay attention to it...but an old guy like that, especially one without much zip left in the tank, really ought to be giving up more HR), this after relatively poor 42 and 43 yo seasons. The team had reasonably acceptable 24-26 yo alternatives in the minors who any reasonably adroit GM would have gone to.

These are the kinds of things that make me disappointed every time I go to play solo.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 08:14 AM

But beyond the GM AI issues, pitchers in OOTP are just overall not well-designed. Very few pitchers should be able to stay in the league if they can't maintain a K/9 ratio over 4.5. But OOTP makes Control and Movement too good across a career (again, we've been able to see this on the Tango charts for quite some time), so you've always been able to find quite a few good pitchers who can't strike anyone out in OOTP leagues. A few is great, mind you...but...well, you get the idea. The problem here is not that Ks drop too fast, but that HRs don't drop fast enough and BB are just too good across the spectrum.

Here is a chart with ERA vs. K/9 plotted in one of my test leagues (with aging/development adjustments). You can see a lot of pitchers with these gosh-awful K/9 ratios are pretty successful when measured by ERA. 43 of the 73 pitchers involved in this chart are 30 yo or younger. Of those 43, 20 have ERA under 5.00.

Ben E Lou · 06-29-2008, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Another part of the issue is the OOTP AI, which allows a pitcher with 20Ks in 180 IP to continue to pitch. My league includes a 44-yo, for example, who threw 145 innings with a 6.32 ERA (9K, 37 BB, 17 HR), this afer relatively poor 42 and 43 yo seasons. The team had reasonably acceptable 24-26 yo alternatives in the minors who any reasonably adroit GM would have gone to.

These are the kinds of things that make me disappointed every time I go to play solo.

Yup. I'm playing around with the AI settings a bit now. I wonder if it's possible to help this by bumping up the current-year evaluation more.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 08:28 AM

All that said, when I go to the HoF and look at pitcher's careers, I can find a few old guys who hold on to their Ks into their 40s. So those beasts do exist, they just aren't prevalent, and they are overwhelmed with mid-40s pitchers who can't K their grandkids. The problem is not with the aging curves, but that pitchers need to be properly designed.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 08:55 AM

Same chart in my baseline league...so you can see the symptom exists without the aging modifiers, but is aggravated by them a bit.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 09:28 AM

I can't find many pitchers who actually survive well into their 40s in my baseline leaue, either. So, if you wanted to BZ MArkus and have him tone down the Stuff falloff at age 38, that would probably be good.

Ben E Lou · 06-29-2008, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

I can't find many pitchers who actually survive well into their 40s in my baseline leaue, either. So, if you wanted to BZ MArkus and have him tone down the Stuff falloff at age 38, that would probably be good.

That would require me reading that 30-page treatise you wrote. Not likely to happen.

Good results so far with 35 Ratings, 60 Current, 5 Previous. In the cases I've checked so far, the older guys are pitching maybe a half season with horrid stats, then either getting released, retiring, or demoted.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkyDog

That would require me reading that 30-page treatise you wrote. Not likely to happen.

Well, you could just take my word for it.

I'll duplicate your testing with the AI mods.

Ben E Lou · 06-29-2008, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Well, you could just take my word for it.

I'll duplicate your testing with the AI mods.

Oh, make no mistake: I believe you, both from the quick examination of your charts, and from experience playing the game. I just don't know if I can back any of it up. I'll do a BZ referencing this thread. Maybe that'll be enough.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 12:10 PM

Your AI adjustment fixed the problem with "old" pitchers hanging on too long. But right now on default Leaue Totals I've got a lot more offense than I like. On par with modern-day AL...which I uess makes sense because I'm using the DH in both leagues.

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 12:16 PM

ER....never mind on that last. It helps if I plug in my development and aging modifiers properly.

Corsairs · 06-29-2008, 01:06 PM

RonCo, that's an absolutely fascinating report. I've just finished reading it and it's going to form the basis for testing in my new OOTP 9 league.

Now I have a question relating to HoF inductees. Your chart shows that these changes result in too many being drawn from early-round picks (i.e. too much "predictability" for which players will become superstars). You mention that playing with talent change adjustment modifiers might potentially rectify this problem. If you were to hazard a guess, how would you change those modifiers to create a smoother drop-off curve for later-round picks becoming HoFers?

RonCo · 06-29-2008, 01:23 PM

Thanks!

If you increase the random talent value above 100, you get more random talent fluctuations, which means you'll get a few more 1st round busts and more late-round stars. I think Markus reduced this heavily in order to address the vehement screaming over the massively negative talent dev curve that v2007 had. I haven't done anything with it, but I would probably start at 125 and run a league, then bump that by 25 and run another. Continue until you get a collection of settings you like.

darkcloud4579 · 06-29-2008, 05:39 PM

This is astounding data, Ron. A real yeoman's effort.

06-22-2008, 11:48 PM	#1
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	Proposed Fictional League Dev/Aging Modifiers I've been fiddling with aging and development modifiers for fictional leagues. I've pretty much settled on: Batter Aging: 2.00 Batter Dev: .5 Pitcher Aging: 1.75 Pitcher Dev: .5 If I get some time I'll post a bunch of supporting data, but I warn that I'm really busy during the week.

06-23-2008, 08:16 AM	#2
Kuttner Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Arlington, MA Posts: 279	Would love to see this. The Aging/Development modifiers are still an area I feel I struggle with. __________________ Baseball Haiku: The Best Haiku Ever Written About the Game

06-28-2008, 10:07 PM	#3
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	http://www.typosphere.com/Age_and_De..._Modifiers.pdf Last edited by RonCo; 06-28-2008 at 10:11 PM.

06-29-2008, 05:34 AM	#5
Ben E Lou Front Office Football Central Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Souf Cackilacky Posts: 1,762	I ran an overnight sim using these, combined with my stats modifiers. Things look pretty good on a global level. Players are peaking at a better time, and fewer guys are playing into their 40s, but some are. However, on a player-by-player basis, there's a pretty major issue with pitchers getting very low strikeout totals as they get later in their careers. I'm talking 200+ IP with less than 50 strikeouts in a season. I'm looking at one player card right now. This guy had 12 straights seasons of 200+ Ks from age 24 to 35, but as he got older... AGE 34: 254.1 IP, 284 Ks AGE 35: 257.2 IP, 253 Ks AGE 36: 213.1 IP, 158 Ks AGE 37: 259.2 IP, 134 Ks AGE 38: 234.1 IP, 80 Ks AGE 39: 261 IP, 45 Ks AGE 40: 229.1 IP, 48 Ks AGE 41: 134.2 IP, 20 Ks AGE 42: 212 IP, 20 Ks AGE 43: 188.2 IP, 21 Ks This is by no means isolated, It's happening for most. I'm having a very hard time finding a pitcher 39 or up with even 120 Ks. The best I've found so far is a guy who threw 215.2 IP with 90 Ks. This guy had 300 Ks six times in his 20s and early 30s, and even had 280-260 at ages 35 and 36. It's a very harsh dropoff. Incidentally, the latter guy was effective with those 90 Ks: 17-8, 4.05. It wouldn't be a big deal if these guys were just dropping off to being crappy players, but they're pitching rather effectively for several seasons with these very low strikeout totals. It may be that we're dealing with a "pick your poison" issue here. Last edited by Ben E Lou; 06-29-2008 at 05:35 AM.

06-29-2008, 07:55 AM	#7
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	Another part of the issue is the OOTP AI, which allows a pitcher with 20Ks in 180 IP to continue to pitch. My league includes a 44-yo, for example, who threw 145 innings with a 6.32 ERA (9K, 37 BB, 17 HR--realize that HR total is very low, too, but the HRA stat is not a very sexy stat so not many people pay attention to it...but an old guy like that, especially one without much zip left in the tank, really ought to be giving up more HR), this after relatively poor 42 and 43 yo seasons. The team had reasonably acceptable 24-26 yo alternatives in the minors who any reasonably adroit GM would have gone to. These are the kinds of things that make me disappointed every time I go to play solo. Last edited by RonCo; 06-29-2008 at 08:17 AM.

06-28-2008, 10:13 PM	#4
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	The bottom line here is that there does not seem to be a "perfect" setting. These numbers will work to get you an offensive environment that roughly resembles 1988 in most fashions, but provides players who peak and grow in ways that seem closest to "real life" to my eyes.

06-29-2008, 07:45 AM	#6
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	Yes, it's a "Pick your poison" issue because OOTP stuff falls off too hard after age 37 (as you can see on the Stuff charts). If you don't drive ading faster you get pitcher Movement being way too good for older pitchers, and if you do drive aging faster you get Stuff quite a bit too bad. I picked where I did because it made most everything else better when I looked at things.

06-29-2008, 08:14 AM	#8
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	But beyond the GM AI issues, pitchers in OOTP are just overall not well-designed. Very few pitchers should be able to stay in the league if they can't maintain a K/9 ratio over 4.5. But OOTP makes Control and Movement too good across a career (again, we've been able to see this on the Tango charts for quite some time), so you've always been able to find quite a few good pitchers who can't strike anyone out in OOTP leagues. A few is great, mind you...but...well, you get the idea. The problem here is not that Ks drop too fast, but that HRs don't drop fast enough and BB are just too good across the spectrum. Here is a chart with ERA vs. K/9 plotted in one of my test leagues (with aging/development adjustments). You can see a lot of pitchers with these gosh-awful K/9 ratios are pretty successful when measured by ERA. 43 of the 73 pitchers involved in this chart are 30 yo or younger. Of those 43, 20 have ERA under 5.00. Attached Images Last edited by RonCo; 06-29-2008 at 08:23 AM.

06-29-2008, 08:28 AM	#10
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	All that said, when I go to the HoF and look at pitcher's careers, I can find a few old guys who hold on to their Ks into their 40s. So those beasts do exist, they just aren't prevalent, and they are overwhelmed with mid-40s pitchers who can't K their grandkids. The problem is not with the aging curves, but that pitchers need to be properly designed. Last edited by RonCo; 06-29-2008 at 08:34 AM.

06-29-2008, 08:55 AM	#11
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	Same chart in my baseline league...so you can see the symptom exists without the aging modifiers, but is aggravated by them a bit. Attached Images

06-29-2008, 09:28 AM	#12
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	I can't find many pitchers who actually survive well into their 40s in my baseline leaue, either. So, if you wanted to BZ MArkus and have him tone down the Stuff falloff at age 38, that would probably be good.

06-29-2008, 12:10 PM	#16
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	Your AI adjustment fixed the problem with "old" pitchers hanging on too long. But right now on default Leaue Totals I've got a lot more offense than I like. On par with modern-day AL...which I uess makes sense because I'm using the DH in both leagues.

06-29-2008, 12:16 PM	#17
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	ER....never mind on that last. It helps if I plug in my development and aging modifiers properly.

06-29-2008, 01:06 PM	#18
Corsairs Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,360	RonCo, that's an absolutely fascinating report. I've just finished reading it and it's going to form the basis for testing in my new OOTP 9 league. Now I have a question relating to HoF inductees. Your chart shows that these changes result in too many being drawn from early-round picks (i.e. too much "predictability" for which players will become superstars). You mention that playing with talent change adjustment modifiers might potentially rectify this problem. If you were to hazard a guess, how would you change those modifiers to create a smoother drop-off curve for later-round picks becoming HoFers? __________________ Founder of the Planetary Extreme Baseball Alliance (PEBA) Premiere OOTP fictional league where creativity counts and imagination is your only limitation Check for openings - contact us today! Join the PEBA

06-29-2008, 01:23 PM	#19
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 9,502	Thanks! If you increase the random talent value above 100, you get more random talent fluctuations, which means you'll get a few more 1st round busts and more late-round stars. I think Markus reduced this heavily in order to address the vehement screaming over the massively negative talent dev curve that v2007 had. I haven't done anything with it, but I would probably start at 125 and run a league, then bump that by 25 and run another. Continue until you get a collection of settings you like. Last edited by RonCo; 06-29-2008 at 01:25 PM.

06-29-2008, 05:39 PM	#20
darkcloud4579 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 8,308 Blog Entries: 32	This is astounding data, Ron. A real yeoman's effort.