Injury Study

[RchW]

Originally Posted by hefalumps

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I'm willing to accept that OOTP9's injury model is more realistic with ONE exception - the career-enders. I've had seven (yes, seven) career ending injuries this season. In the previous four years that I played my league with OOTP 2007/8, I had four CEIs over those four years. Now with OOTP9, I have seven in one year. That's just ridiculous.

Wow, that is hard to fathom. I haven't had seven CEI's in 46 simmed years of my solo league. Makes one wonder if we all have the same game.

[Syd Thrift]

I turned off CEIs except for a couple of really bad "okay, he died" injuries, like a fractured skull, really major back injury (maybe that won't kill you, but that did end Roy Campanella's career), and fractured knee (I think I just missed that one). Partially that's because 5 CEIs a year annoy me too but also because in my current dynasty I'm tossing players out for other reasons.

Otherwise, it seems a lot more accurate this year. Pitchers in particular blow out their arms on a regular basis when they're overused. Well, maybe not blow out but when you get 3 guys with 1-2 week injuries on your roster and you don't want to put any of them on the DL because you need them all back as soon as they're ready... well, that creates a nice little feedback loop as well, causing more and worse injuries. I may be a masochist, but I really like that.

[Andy]

Thanks for posting the file, 1998 Yankees!

[injury log]

I'm still around... haven't had a chance to try OOTP-9 (at least post-beta) because of various issues, so haven't kept up with the forum.

Anyway:

Originally Posted by Matter2003

I have read how others have compared ootp 2007 and ootp 9's injuries and found how there are more injuries in OOTP 9...however, I have yet to see a study showing a comparison to actual injuries that occur over a season/offseason in baseball.

I compiled data about all injuries from 2007 MLB, using rotoworld reports so I'd know of all day-to-day injuries. I don't think many people appreciate just how many 2-3 day injuries there are in real life baseball, and OOTP was, in v2007, way too low in all categories besides CEIs (thanks to Sitting Duck for collecting OOTP data). I don't know about the latest version.

I have a breakdown by injury type, play, player position, etc, in a spreadsheet, but a summary of the data is below:

Real Life Data from April 1-Oct 1, 2007 MLB (the entire regular season; compiled from rotoworld player reports; I've recorded every instance where a player leaves or misses a game because of injury, illness, or off-field reasons, not including league-imposed suspensions)

duration-----REAL LIFE MLB- 2007
1d-7d:______795
8d-15d:_____148
16d-30d:____146
31d-45d:____74
46d-120d:___125
121d-180d:__25
181d-455d:__38
CEI:_________2

TOTAL:______1353


__________________________________________________ ________________________

Of these:
109 were due to Illness. 98 of these illnesses lasted between 1 and 7 days;
101 were Off-Field events, 83 of which resulted in absences of between 1 and 7 days (I've included brief absences for family issues (bereavement leave)- births, deaths or family illnesses- which elevates the 1d-7d injury total by about 70).

I'd simply note:
man, there are a lot more injuries in real life than in OOTP.

[SittingDuck]

Originally Posted by injury log

I'm still around... haven't had a chance to try OOTP-9 (at least post-beta) because of various issues, so haven't kept up with the forum.

READ: collusion with Nutlaw to secure his first BJHL Championship.

Those ruthless scalawags....

[Matter2003]

Thanks for saving me a lot of time in doing that IL...

In my league with normal settings there were only 435 injuries during the season...way too few overall injuries, but to my shock there were 42 injuries that were more than 6 months in length, which equated to 9.7% versus only 38 injuries more than 6 months IRL out of 1353, which ends up being a mere 2.8%...

When I jacked up the injury rate to very high I ended up with 1179 injuries with 75 being greater than 6 months, which ended up being 6.3%---better, but still much too high, and the number of injuries were still a little low, although there were many more day-to-day injuries...

So what we can conclude is that even on very high, the number of injuries need to be increased by about 8.6% while the percentage of injuries lasting more than 6 months needs to be drastically reduced by about 126%(84 injuries over 6 months if there were the same number of injuries as IRL). On normal settings the number of injuries lasting more than 6 months are signinficantly disproportionate to the overall number of injuries and needs to be reduced by an astounding 242%(would have 130 injuries at these rates longer than 6 months if there were the same total injuries as IRL)...

This is something Markus needs to look at very closely and really turn down the number of serious injuries, while increasing significantly the number of day-today and shorter term injuries...

[Dagrims]

Originally Posted by Matter2003

Thanks for saving me a lot of time in doing that IL...

In my league with normal settings there were only 435 injuries during the season...way too few overall injuries, but to my shock there were 42 injuries that were more than 6 months in length, which equated to 9.7% versus only 38 injuries more than 6 months IRL out of 1353, which ends up being a mere 2.8%...

Are you tabulating only DL injuries, or does that total include all of the DTD injuries?

while the percentage of injuries lasting more than 6 months needs to be drastically reduced by about 126%

I know he's got programming skill, but if he can find a way to reduce an amount by more than 100% he's a genius!

[Matter2003]

Originally Posted by Dagrims

Are you tabulating only DL injuries, or does that total include all of the DTD injuries?

Includes everything, these are all injuries taken from the injury log.

Originally Posted by Dagrims

I know he's got programming skill, but if he can find a way to reduce an amount by more than 100% he's a genius!

Its more than 100% because the serious injuries are more than double the the IRL values. There would be 84 injuries over 6 months at that rate if the total number of injuries were the same in OOTP as IRL, while IRL there are only 38. That means there are 126% more injuries in OOTP that last over 6 months than there are IRL....

[deadringer]

Would Markus have to code the change or could we manipulate the injury dat file enough to help?

[Syd Thrift]

I'm pretty sure this could be done entirely via the injury.dat file. You'd have to copy a lot of the shorter-term injuries (or create new ones) so that there aren't as many 6+ month or SEI injuries. You'd probably also want to turn off the SEI booleans most of the time.

[Renner]

Is it possible to modify the injury.txt and use it in an exisiting league or can it only work in a new league ? Thanks !

[OldFatGuy]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I'm pretty sure this could be done entirely via the injury.dat file. You'd have to copy a lot of the shorter-term injuries (or create new ones) so that there aren't as many 6+ month or SEI injuries. You'd probably also want to turn off the SEI booleans most of the time.

If anyone's come up with an injury.dat file that, in connection with a specific setting under injury frequency, more closely mimics injury rates and type with RL, could they please post it along with stating on which injury frequency setting should be used?

I have no clue how to manipulate the injury.dat file in order to change frequencies and such, but would like to see a more realistic injury rate, along with the rates more accurately corresponding to RL data, i.e. the percentage of long term ones being significantly shorter.

[satchel]

Originally Posted by Matter2003

There would be 84 injuries over 6 months at that rate if the total number of injuries were the same in OOTP as IRL, while IRL there are only 38. That means there are 126% more injuries in OOTP that last over 6 months than there are IRL....

Yes, but you reduce 84 by about 55% to get 38.

[injury log]

Matter2003, I agree entirely, except on the percentages-

Originally Posted by satchel

Yes, but you reduce 84 by about 55% to get 38.

satchel has it right.

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I'm pretty sure this could be done entirely via the injury.dat file. You'd have to copy a lot of the shorter-term injuries (or create new ones) so that there aren't as many 6+ month or SEI injuries. You'd probably also want to turn off the SEI booleans most of the time.

No, that doesn't work at all. The game doesn't just pick something at random from injuries.txt. If there's an SEI available in injuries.txt, the game will use it; it doesn't matter what other injuries are in there. You only have one option to reduce the frequency of SEIs by editing injuries.txt: turn off *all* SEIs for a particular type of play. If you're happy for no one to ever get an SEI 'while pitching', then you can turn off all 'while pitching' SEIs. If you leave one 'while pitching' SEI in there, the game will use it every time.

Also there is no injuries.dat file; that's been gone since v2007. injuries.txt is the injury database.

Originally Posted by Renner

Is it possible to modify the injury.txt and use it in an exisiting league or can it only work in a new league ? Thanks !

Yes, just change it, save it, and load any league you want.

[Syd Thrift]

Hmm. Really. The game definitely chooses the injury first and then determines if it's a CEI by looking at the boolean. If you change CEI booleans, you will reduce the frequency of CEIs. I just assumed it worked the same with SEIs as well. Anyway, it wouldn't be the end of the world to eliminate all of them and perhaps make some of the injury lengths a little longer to compensate (actually, I'm not sure how much compensating you'd necessarily have to do). A 6-8 week injury at the end of August is as much of an SEI as an actual SEI is.

[injury log]

If the SEI boolean is off, an injury will never last longer than 90 days.

[SittingDuck]

Confirming what IL has said above, which I've mentioned in other threads.

Indeed, while the injury system may be better than that of some other games, it truly needs to be rebuilt.

[Dagrims]

Originally Posted by SittingDuck

Indeed, while the injury system may be better than that of some other games, it truly needs to be rebuilt.

The Six Million Dollar Game

[Cryomaniac]

Originally Posted by SittingDuck

Confirming what IL has said above, which I've mentioned in other threads.

Indeed, while the injury system may be better than that of some other games, it truly needs to be rebuilt.

I agree there. Certainly the way the game handles SEI's and CEI's needs to be changed.

[Matter2003]

Well, to be honest, unless Markus has it coded differently, each injury severity would have a set percentage or a range of percentages for each play type...for instance, a SEI might occur .5% of the time for a collision but only .3% of the time while running the bases, etc...

Seemingly, all that would need to happen is for Markus to show the variables as default values like so many other values are shown and allow us to edit them, then have the game use those inputted values instead of the hardcoded ones currently in use. As an aside, it would make a lot more sense if the injury file contained frequencies like the name files so we would be able to adjust the injuries that way as well, allowing users to make season and career ending injuries much less frequent, more frequent, etc by just changing the frequencise associated with them...

It doesn't seem hard to do since he already must know how to do it because he does it with the name files, but then again, depending on the way he has it coded it could be somewhat painful. IMHO, either one of those ways would be a lot better than it is now and allowing the users to change the variables would seem like a much easier and quicker fix than the frequency method since all he would need to do is make a few more labels with textboxes and allow us to change those values which wuold then lessen or increase certain types of injuries....

Just my 2 cents...

matter2003