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11-30-2008, 02:36 PM
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#21 (permalink) | |
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Minors (Triple A)
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11-30-2008, 04:48 PM
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#22 (permalink) | |
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Minors (Triple A)
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11-30-2008, 05:52 PM
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#23 (permalink) | ||
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Edit Never mind, the columns got moved. 
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Reading List Smelling Land The Hydrogen Defense Against Climate Catastrophe by David Sanborn Scott Last edited by RchW; 11-30-2008 at 05:56 PM. |
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11-30-2008, 06:14 PM
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#24 (permalink) | |
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This is good work and a useful thread.
What modifiers do you use for errors and for DP? In my opinion they have a dramatic effect on offense, especially if too low. In its default setting OOTP is usually very low on DP totals at the MLB level. I use 1.43 and get good results to 2007 totals. Errors are much closer to real life so require little modification. In the minors, errors and DP are very low even when accurate totals are used. Often, modifiers of 1.4 or more are needed for errors and 1.9 or more for DP. With errors there is actual data available, however DP's are problematic as there is no real data. I calculate expected DP totals for AAA using MLB numbers, in proportion to the league size ie 16/30 or 14/30. The assumption is that high minors will have similar defensive results. For AA and A I reduce that by 10% and 15% respectively assuming that younger players will make routine plays less often. So the only addition I'd recommend would be to track errors and DP and modify them as well.
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Reading List Smelling Land The Hydrogen Defense Against Climate Catastrophe by David Sanborn Scott |
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12-26-2008, 10:57 PM
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#25 (permalink) |
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 199
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As a test, I am running a historical league beginning in 1901, 3 levels of minors (AAA, AA, A). I've just completed 1961, and my Majors stats are looking pretty good (except complete games, which are WAY low). But minors have pretty much been whacked out from the start: Pitching dominates. Averages have risen to the low-realistic range in most cases, but HR's are extremely low.
One thing I've noticed (I have selected the setting to adjust league totals modifiers for accuracy) is that the HR modifier is quite low, .221 across the board for majors and all minors. Apparently, this setting is working for Majors, but not minors. At any rate, to stick to the specifics of this thread, if I were to use the modifiers in the League Totals Modifiers.xls attachment in the OP, would the expected result be to get somewhat realistic minors totals compared to an average for the period 1992-2008? Are these modifiers of any use for prior seasons, specifically ones way back (like 1901 thru the 1970's)? Thanks in advance. |
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12-29-2008, 03:45 AM
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#27 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,304
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You cannot calculate the Modifiers more accurately than how OOTP does it for maor league historical simulations, AND you cannot use some pre-made modifier settings to get what you want. Simulations are dynamic and that's why OOTP actually calculates the modifier values each season.
I would suggest not using minor leagues ina hitorical simulation. All the players that come into historical are major league players and they debut in their first major league season. There's simply not enough players to run an entire minor league system...and using major leageurs to fill the minor leageus makes little sense anyway. |
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12-29-2008, 05:28 PM
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#28 (permalink) | |||
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 199
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Isura wrote:
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Garlon wrote: Quote:
Garlon wrote: Quote:
Since my 12/26 post, I've done some additional testing, tweaking majors modifiers (Starting Pitcher Endurance) to correct the complete games issue, and trying out different modifiers for the minors (Isura's, Isura's with a few of my own tweaks, and the defaults where everything is 1.000). Although there is no one solution, I think I'm figuring out what tweaks will work for my purposes. It's still to early to tell for sure, but I think minors totals will end up 'in the ballpark' if I: 1. let minors default to that of the majors, but... 2. adjust minors HR's upward ALOT (from approx .2 to somewhere around 1.0) 3. tweak minors hits up a bit 4. tweak minors starting pitcher endurance as needed 5. make sure all minors teams are affiliated w majors (I noted in another post that my unafilliated minors teams had significantly lower avg's than the affiliated ones). |
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12-29-2008, 06:42 PM
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#29 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,304
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thehef - I wouldn't be too concerned with CG's. The pitcher endurance modifier keeps the simulation's IPouts per GS on track with the historical rates. As OOTP currently calculates it, you wil have the correct distribution of IPous between the league's SP's and Bullpen. If you manually boost the SP Endurance Modifier higher than it is calculated, you will be taking IP away from the bullpen in your simulation. Remember, the difference between earning a CG or not can simply be recording the last out. The AI just tends to use a reliever in the 9th inning a bit more often since its strategy is based on modern baseball.
Bob Gibson career in my last simulation Stat: sim vs real IPouts per GS: 21.5 vs 23.31 CG%: 29.1% vs 52.9% Gibson IRL averaged getting 1.8 more outs per Game Started than in the simulation. So his CG's were low in the sim, but in terms of IP per GS he was right oon target. The difference of 1.8 outs per GS is primarily due to Gibson starting more games earlier in his career in the simulation (when his endurance rating would have been lower) than he did IRL. |
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12-29-2008, 07:21 PM
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#30 (permalink) |
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 199
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Garlon - Thanks for the replies and info... I don't have the numbers with me right now, but my CG's were much, much lower than real life. IIRC, the CG's for the early 60's in my sim were less something like 7% of all games, whereas in reality it was about 25%.
So, if I understand your explanation correctly, the likely reason for the lower CG's in the sim is because the game uses more 9th-inning relievers, but SP's are getting roughly the same amount of innings. If that's correct, then I guess I have two choices: 1. Leave the SP endurance modifier as is and have many fewer CG's compared to real life, or 2. Bump up the SP endurance modifier and have fewer reliever innings compared to real life Correct? Finally, when you say, "The AI just tends to use a reliever in the 9th inning a bit more often since its strategy is based on modern baseball..." I cannot access the game at the moment, but isn't that something that's adjustable on the Strategies tab? And I would think that would import each year & adjust (when necessary) to reflect the strategies of the era... I will look closer at the innings pitched of a bunch of starters to verify that they are in fact getting their innings. Assuming so, perhaps I can find some middle ground where I barely tweak the SP endurance and/or tweak strategies either of the overall AI or each team. |
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12-29-2008, 10:06 PM
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#31 (permalink) | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Watertown, New York
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Signature? What signature? |
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12-29-2008, 10:33 PM
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#32 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,304
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I can tell you that the first place you need to start at is the Pitcher Endurance setting in th Strategy Tab. Set Pitcher Endurance to VERY LOW. The SP Endurance Modifier will automatically correct the SP's up to the where they need to be, but by setting Endurance to Very Low in the strategies tab you will get more realistic usage ut of your bullpen. If you even bump Pitcher Endurance up to "Low" you will see far too many RP's racking up over 100 IP per season out of the bullpen.
Now, the Use Relievers and Use Closers settings are also tied to how many total pichers the AI will carry on the staff. I suggest setting both of these to Very Often. I also suggest setting Pinch Hit for Pitchers to Very High. Start with these settings and then tinker with them. I can also test out some solutions in beta testing for getting afew more CGs out of the SP's. Remember, there are also strategy settings for each individual player. For example, you can tell the AI to have more/less patience with pulling certain pitchers out of the game. |
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12-30-2008, 02:20 AM
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#33 (permalink) | |
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 199
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Garlon, I'm not sure I understand.
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12-30-2008, 05:26 AM
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#34 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,304
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The Pitcher Endurance Strategy Setting will apply to both SPs and RPs. By setting this to Very Low we will get more realistic usage out of the RP's. The Very Low seting will not have any negative impact on SPs bcause we have a separate modifier already in OOTP that applies just to SPs. The modifier will automatically get the SP Endurance where it needs to be tp get the correct IP per GS each eason. So essentially, the Strategy Setting for Pitcher Endurance only really applies to RP's, and this is why it should be set to Very Low.
There is also a modifier for RP Endurance, but OOTP does not automatically calculate new values for this each season. You can fool around with this manually if you want to, but I think it is best to leave it at 1.000. I will look into tweaking some of the default strategy settings and perhaps make some suggestions to pull a few more CG's out of the SPs whenever OOTP10 beta testing begins. Thebiggest problem with RPs is that some SP's will of course end up in the bullpen on some teams because A. a team already has better SPs to fill the rotation and B. the extra SPs are better than the other RPs that a team has available on the roster. Now the real issue is that these SPs who are in the bullpen carry their high endurance ratings with them when they relieve. So if you don't have your strategy settings for Pitcher Endurance set to Very Low and Pinch Hit for Pitchers set to Very Often, some of these guys are going to rack up more IP out of the bullpen then some of your SPs will out of the rotation. This is why you need to start with Pitcher Endurance Very Low, Pinch Hit for Pitchers Very Often, regardles of the era you are playing. |
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12-30-2008, 06:32 PM
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#35 (permalink) | ||
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 199
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Garlon wrote:
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And Garlon, thanks again for all the useful insider info... |
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12-30-2008, 06:51 PM
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#36 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,304
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If you bump the use Closers down to Normal it just means that the AI won't try to bring in the pitcher tabbed as the CL on the pitching staff. So what will happen is that more of the bullpen IP will just get distributed between the other RPs. When that happens you get too many RP's eclipsing 100 IP in a season out of the bullpen.
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12-31-2008, 02:58 PM
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#37 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Aug 2008
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There's a problem with setting pitcher endurance down to Very Low (or even to Low, depending upon the era involved). This is because it messes with roster configurations. If set to Normal, the AI will carry 10 pitchers on the roster, at Low it will carry 11, at Very Low it will carry 12. Apparently, the AI doesn't know that this change doesn't really affect SPs. When pitching staffs increase, position players decrease. When the latter happens, combined with the AI's overuse of PHing/PRing (which would be made worse by setting PH for pitchers to very high), you inevitably get lots of players playing out of position in late innings. Gamers who only simulate whole seasons at a time never notice this (I guess -- unless they look at fielding stats, which I assume few do). But those of us who like to follow what happens on a day-to-day basis do notice this. So this is a heads-up to them.
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01-01-2009, 08:48 PM
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#39 (permalink) |
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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 39
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I've been following this thread and the other one involving best league settings for historicals. I like your suggestions, Garlon, and I understand how the game will distribute innings between starters and relievers. With regard to SP accumulating enough innings, the user can adjust the rotation to a 4-man to help in that regard. My question, though, relates to those relievers who do eclipse 100+ innings. With those settings, will those particular relievers approach that mark? What if they were the closer, too, such as 1982 Quisenberry (72g, all in relief, 136.2 ip, 35 saves). Would increasing his endurance help? Does endurance only affect pitches per appearance or does it also affect recovery rate? Is there any setting that affects a pitcher's ability to recover?
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01-06-2009, 08:11 PM
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#40 (permalink) | |||
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 199
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Garlon wrote:
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Is there a conflict with having the goals of realistic bullpen usage and having no more than 10 or 11 pitchers on a staff? In other words, do the settings required to get realistic bullpen usage mean that rosters will generally carry 12 pitchers? Garlon wrote: Quote:
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