1974 SIM Results

[pstrickert]

I posted these results on the beta board, but they could be of interest here, too.


Here's what I did: I imported the 1974 season from the Lahman DB using Real Stats (not Neutralized Stats). Development OFF. Injuries NORMAL. Trade Frequency VERY LOW. 40-Man Roster Sept. 1. One-year recalc. Then I simmed the 1974 season.

I ran the same exact sim 10 different times. The results:

National League

BA - SLG - ERA - R/G

SIM: .258 - .371 - 3.76 - 4.27
REAL: .255 - .367 - 3.62 - 4.15

American League

BA-SLG - ERA - R/G

SIM: .259 - .373 - 3.69 - 4.17
REAL: .258 - .371 - 3.62 - 4.10

The results were much closer to RL than I expected. Notice that offense was slightly elevated in both leagues (corresponding to the slightly higher ERAs). I did not notice any single-season anomalies (though I only did a quick review of the leaderboards). This is quite different from the same type of sim using Neutralized Stats, which tend to produce even higher offensive stats and more single-season anomalies.

. . .


Winning Percentage

sim (real)

AL East

NYY .533 (.549)
BAL .510 (.562)
BOS .496 (.519)
MIL .488 (.469)
CLE .488 (.475)
DET .408 (.444)

COMMENT: BAL-NYY flip-flopped the top two spots. This is reasonable.

AL West

CAL .531 (.420)
KC .531 (.475)
CHI .527 (.475)
OAK .509 (.556)
TEX .478 (.525)
MIN .465 (.506)

COMMENT: CAL goes from last to first, while OAK (the '74 WS champs) drops to fourth.

NL East

PIT .552 (.543)
NYM .521 (.438)
STL .493 (.534)
PHI .483 (.494)
CHI .460 (.407)
MON .459 (.491)

COMMENT: NYM jump from fifth to second. Otherwise, no big surprises.

NL West

LA .581 (.630)
CIN .561 (.605)
HOU .489 (.500)
SD .448 (.370)
SF .447 (.444)
ATL .446 (.543)

COMMENT: ATL drops from third to last. Otherwise, no big surprises.

The AL West produces the most head-scratchers. It looks as though, from perusing the sims, that OAK's pitching staff never lives up to their reputation. They led the league in staff ERA in RL, but they show below-average results in the sims. I guess I'll take a closer look at that.

. . .

I checked the injury situation for Oakland and California in each of the 10 sims. Guess what: Oakland was regularly devastated by injuries, while California had few severe injuries as a rule. In 1974, Hunter, Blue, and Holtzman combined to make 119 starts with ERAs near or below 3.00. In almost every sim, one of them (and sometimes two) suffered long-term injuries.

[pstrickert]

1974 SIM x 10 (more results)

sim (avg.) vs. real

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

AB - H - HR - BA - AB/HR

George Scott

SIM: 597 - 167 - 17 - .279 - 34.5
REAL: 604 - 170 - 17 - .281 - 35.5

Pedro Garcia

SIM: 348 - 67 - 9 - .191 - 40.5
REAL: 452 - 90 - 12 - .199 - 37.7

Robin Yount

SIM: 420 - 106 - 5 - .251 - 87.5
REAL: 344 - 86 - 3 - .250 - 114.7

Don Money

SIM: 596 - 163 - 14 - .274 - 43.2
REAL: 629 - 178 - 15 - .283 - 41.9

[No Pepper]

Thanks for the results pstrickert. These results seem real close to real life. Do stats like 2b, 3b, hr, etc match up, within reason? In previous versions, the first year in the sim always tended to vary from expected totals, then would get closer the next year when the league total modifiers were automatically adjusted. Is that reduced in OOTP9?

[pstrickert]

I'm not sure how to explain the good results. It could be that the improvements overall in historicals have reduced the problems with the initial import season. The beta team hasn't done nearly enough tests, though, to make that claim.

[skunkle333]

These are certainly impressive 74 replay stats.