Historical settings

tycho32 · 06-27-2008, 10:24 PM

I have a couple of questions.
1. When importing a historical player what does neutralized stats do?
2. I started a best of all time historical league in 2004 and imported almost 1000 players. What is the best way to make sure that the stats would be as close to accurate as possible?

I have been importing as base current ratings on real stats and potential on peak seasons of career. I will probably import them as nuetralized stats into a different saved game and run both for one year and see which one I like better.
Thanks

rasnell · 06-28-2008, 05:09 AM

I don't know enough about neutralized stats to answer. However, other historical settings that I think are important is to have three-year recalc on (game default setting). You also have the option to turn on RAH (Retire According to History). I personally don't use RAH because I like the alternative of getting to see JR Richard and Lou Gehrig continue with their careers and the possibility that Cal Ripken might be injury prone and quit early.

tycho32 · 07-01-2008, 08:32 PM

Anyone have any answers? I saved the base league and then we have a draft every year so the recalc after three years doesnt really apply. any help on these questions would be appreciated so i could have th emost accurate league possible.

pstrickert · 07-01-2008, 08:52 PM

This is how Garlon introduced the Garlon/Spritze DB (which, I believe, is used to create neutralized stats in OOTP9):

Spritze and I started working on a new modified historical DB for OOTP recently. Spritze has done 99% of the work on it and has made (and is still in the process of making) many meticulous edits to provide the best results with OOTP.

The biggest modification we have made with the DB is that it will have park-neutralized player stats. We are using the method described by Bill James in his Historical Abstract to both park-neutralize player stats and convert them to a 750-run environment. If you go to baseball-reference.com you can look up any player and click an option to neutralize stats to a 750-run park-neutral environment. The stats in our DB will essentially be the same as what you would find there since we are using the same conversion technique.

Don't be too concerned with the fact that teams weren't scoring 750-runs per season in the Deadball Era and that this conversion will have a negative impact on simulation results. In fact, just the opposite will happen and we willl see even better results across all eras. OOTP's League Totals Modifiers control the environment and ratios of things like BA and HR per AB, the conversion of the stats in our DB to a higher run-scoring environment just changes player ratings...not the results of the simulation. The important aspect of player ratings in OOTP is how players compare relative to one another, not the absolute value of the ratings. This park-neutral 750-run conversion puts all players on an equal footing for comparison so that players who played for the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium for instance who have poor hitting stats because that is perhaps the worst hitter's park in baseball will benefit from the conversion, while players who played in Coors Field have their statistics reduced. Willie Davis who played fo the Dodgers 1960-1979 had a career .279 BA, after conversion he goes to .301. This is the primary advantage this DB will provide - better representation of a player's abilities.

We are also normalizing player fielding stats to their year and league. Players who played on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs had fewer opportunities to make plays in the field. We adjust player Put Out and Assist totals to adjust for things like this. We also adjusted Double Play totals of all players on teams based on thei teams Expected Double Plays Per Game compared to the League Average Double Plays Per Game of that season. Both of these adjustment formulas come from Bill James' book Win Shares.

06-27-2008, 10:24 PM	#1 (permalink)
tycho32 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 37	Historical settings I have a couple of questions. 1. When importing a historical player what does neutralized stats do? 2. I started a best of all time historical league in 2004 and imported almost 1000 players. What is the best way to make sure that the stats would be as close to accurate as possible? I have been importing as base current ratings on real stats and potential on peak seasons of career. I will probably import them as nuetralized stats into a different saved game and run both for one year and see which one I like better. Thanks

06-28-2008, 05:09 AM	#2 (permalink)
rasnell Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,646	I don't know enough about neutralized stats to answer. However, other historical settings that I think are important is to have three-year recalc on (game default setting). You also have the option to turn on RAH (Retire According to History). I personally don't use RAH because I like the alternative of getting to see JR Richard and Lou Gehrig continue with their careers and the possibility that Cal Ripken might be injury prone and quit early. __________________ Author of new book, "Root for the Cubs: Charlie Root and the 1929 Chicago Cubs," to be published by Wind Publications and available to public by Opening Day 2009. Charlie Root is remembered for one pitch to Babe Ruth in the 1932 World Series. But baseball's biggest lie has overshadowed the career of the winningest pitcher in Cub history. Beta tester, OOTP 2007/08/09. Commissioner in fast-paced, historical Arcanum Baseball League. Member, Society for American Baseball Research.

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07-01-2008, 08:32 PM	#3 (permalink)
tycho32 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 37	Anyone have any answers? I saved the base league and then we have a draft every year so the recalc after three years doesnt really apply. any help on these questions would be appreciated so i could have th emost accurate league possible.

07-01-2008, 08:52 PM	#4 (permalink)
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,689	This is how Garlon introduced the Garlon/Spritze DB (which, I believe, is used to create neutralized stats in OOTP9): Spritze and I started working on a new modified historical DB for OOTP recently. Spritze has done 99% of the work on it and has made (and is still in the process of making) many meticulous edits to provide the best results with OOTP. The biggest modification we have made with the DB is that it will have park-neutralized player stats. We are using the method described by Bill James in his Historical Abstract to both park-neutralize player stats and convert them to a 750-run environment. If you go to baseball-reference.com you can look up any player and click an option to neutralize stats to a 750-run park-neutral environment. The stats in our DB will essentially be the same as what you would find there since we are using the same conversion technique. Don't be too concerned with the fact that teams weren't scoring 750-runs per season in the Deadball Era and that this conversion will have a negative impact on simulation results. In fact, just the opposite will happen and we willl see even better results across all eras. OOTP's League Totals Modifiers control the environment and ratios of things like BA and HR per AB, the conversion of the stats in our DB to a higher run-scoring environment just changes player ratings...not the results of the simulation. The important aspect of player ratings in OOTP is how players compare relative to one another, not the absolute value of the ratings. This park-neutral 750-run conversion puts all players on an equal footing for comparison so that players who played for the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium for instance who have poor hitting stats because that is perhaps the worst hitter's park in baseball will benefit from the conversion, while players who played in Coors Field have their statistics reduced. Willie Davis who played fo the Dodgers 1960-1979 had a career .279 BA, after conversion he goes to .301. This is the primary advantage this DB will provide - better representation of a player's abilities. We are also normalizing player fielding stats to their year and league. Players who played on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs had fewer opportunities to make plays in the field. We adjust player Put Out and Assist totals to adjust for things like this. We also adjusted Double Play totals of all players on teams based on thei teams Expected Double Plays Per Game compared to the League Average Double Plays Per Game of that season. Both of these adjustment formulas come from Bill James' book Win Shares.