The Republican League

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Bullpen
Game Date: November 1, 2000

As top-heavy and shallow as our organization is in terms of starting pitching, at least Buddy Davis and Esteban Feliz are talented enough to make it top-heavy. There’s nobody even close to that talent level amongst our relief pitchers.

POSITION REPORT: Relief Pitchers & Closers
(All ratings by Stan Johnson, Scouting Director for the North Carolina Aeros. I’ll give actual ratings for big-league veterans, potential ratings for prospects, and both for the handful of prospects finishing their development in the big leagues.)

To start with, our “closer” is the perfectly average 26yo RH Juan Morales (Stuff 3 / Movement 3 / Control 3). His K/9 is 6.90, his BB/9 is 4.50. He was actually a much better pitcher in 1997 and 1998, regressing the past two seasons. We’ll have to talk to him about that, but hopefully he can be effective again in middle relief.

The recently acquired Joe “Electric” White (3/3/4) is actually the best righty we have in the pen, and so will probably end up with the mythical and much-coveted title of “closer.” He has a great fastball into the mid-90s, and he’s already becoming a team leader despite his youth.

Bob Murphy (2/3/4) is our crafty junkballing lefty. He’s 27, and just wrapping up his rookie year, mucking his way through 63 IP with 25 BB and 33 K. That’s not crafty. That’s crappy.

Our other lefty is Angel Garcia (3/3/3) and he’s one of our myriad examples of “replacement level player.”

At just 21yo, RH Robbie Workman (Actual:4/4/3 Potential:8/8/6) is probably best suited to close in the near future: he throws hard, gets a ton of ground balls, and loses effectiveness quickly after 20 or so pitches. His numbers in AAA this year (57/21 K/BB in 54 IP) are very encouraging.

I don’t really have to write anything about Chris Griffin (2/3/4), do I? I promise he’s not going to be here long, despite my predecessor signing him to a one-year extension in July.

Thirty-year-old RH Carlos Roman (3/3/4) should be better than he’s been, at least according to my scout. He’s a AAA+ sort of player who wouldn’t sniff the majors in a decent organization.

On the farm, big righty Bobby “Ping” Woods (Actual: 5/4/3 Potential:10/8/7) is going to get a shot at the majors in Spring Training. He’s got control issues, but he’s only been in professional ball for two seasons, and we have time to be patient with him. (No, I didn’t give him the nickname.)

Arnold Martin (9/6/5) is a 25yo journeyman who might be major-league roster-filler soon. Also worth watching include 21yo LH Tommy McCoy (7/6/5).

And that’s it. Out of about 45 minor league relievers, we have three who might be worth something some day.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Catchers
Game Date: November 1, 2000

Curt Moore (3/3/2/4/2) is 26, a switch hitter, and pretty good with the bat. His arm is a liability, but he’s certainly an acceptable backstop, and he’s not yet arbitration eligible.

Our other catcher is Tyler Wright (Contact 3 / Gap 2 / HR 2 / Eye 4 / Avoid Ks 3), a 37 year-old former All-Star who still thinks he’s 27 and is signed through 2001 at $6 million. That sound you hear is my head pounding on my keyboard.

For prospects, we’ve got just one in Paul Lger (Actual:3/3/1/3/4 Potential:7/6/1/7/7), a 22yo Canadian who hits from the left side. He’s better defensively than Wright, and has a higher upside, and hopefully might a longer-term option at catcher.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: First Basemen
Game Date: November 1, 2000

Our best player is 1B Cody King (Contact 4 / Gap 3 / HR 4 / Eye 4 / Avoid Ks 5), a 29yo who had a breakout year this year, winning the ML batting title while hitting 333/403/523.

King is entering his final year of arbitration, so we’ll need to make a decision about extending him or trading him this summer.

Lonnie Parkinson (3/3/3/2/3) is the backup. At 33yo, he has a total of 76 major-league Abs. He won’t get any more with North Carolina.

In the minors, 20yo Texan Glen Thomas (Actual:4/5/1/1/2 Potential:9/10/6/6/5) is actually a better prospect at third-base, IMO, with an adequate range and a great arm. He was acquired last year from New Jersey, and did very well (355/391/479) in Rookie ball, and will get a chance at AA or higher in 2001.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Second Basemen
Game Date: November 1, 2000

We have a little depth at second base, with two youngsters with decent potential both fighting for playing time. The older player will turn 26 in April: Jim Price (Actual: Contact 3 / Gap 3 / HR 2 / Eye 4 / Avoid Ks 3 -- Potential: 6/6/3/8/6). He’s mediocre at best defensively, and probably should be a backup, but he gets on base pretty well and has the potential to get better.

The other is a year younger: Jack Nicholson (Actual:3/3/3/3/3 Potential: 6/6/5/5/6). He’s really never been all that effective in AAA, and probably should start 2001 down there rather than continue struggling so badly at the plate in the majors.

On the development side, we’ve got Byron Parker (Potential: 6/8/4/5/7) in AAA, and he looks nearly ready to contribute. And that’s about it.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Third Basemen
Game Date: November 1, 2000


Jose Rosario (Contact 3 / Gap 3 / HR 4 / Eye 4 / Avoid Ks 3) is a surprising bargain for a 35yo two-time All Star. He’s making just $1.3 million through 2001, and he hit 286/374/417 this year. His power has been fading for three years, so that’s a concern, but at his price it’s a small one.

At AAA, we have 24yo Dan Hurt (Actual: 3/3/2/3/4 – Potential: 6/5/3/6/7), who actually has 400+ major-league ABs already, with a 237/279/337 career line.

The long-term solution at 3B, though, is Javier Camacho (Potential: 10/10/9/4/4), a 21yo with a great glove and amazing bat control and power potential. He was the first overall pick in the 2000 draft, and needs to do better than the 277/297/364 he hit at Rookie League Asheville this year.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Shortstops
Game Date: November 1, 2000


Somehow, in September, Illinois snuck SS Rafael Gutierrez (Contact 4 / Gap 4 / HR 1 / Eye 2 / Avoid Ks 4) through waivers and traded him to us in exchange for terrible SP Andy Sonier. Gutierrez is 27yo, and has been a consistent 295/340/410 batter for the past few years while playing very good defense (winning FL Most Outstanding Fielder in 2000 despite now playing in the ML). He’s relatively popular, has at least two more full seasons before free agency, and is a solid, cheap player around whom we can build.

We have one marginal prospects at SS in Chris Charles (Potential: 6/5/2/8/3), 24yo at AA Greensboro.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Outfielders
Game Date: November 1, 2000


We have the worst starting left and center fielders in all of baseball. In LF, Mike Rasmussen (Contact 3 / Gap 3 / HR 3 / Eye 3 / Avoid Ks 2) was just awful in his age-31 season, hitting 231/288/319 in an astonishing 712 unproductive plate appearances. He did manage 71 stolen bases on those too-rare occasions when he did reach base. His salary ($3.9 million per year through 2003) is going to be tough to deal with, and dumping it is going to be a top offseason priority.

CF Nick McDonald (Actual: 3/3/3/3/2 – Potential: 5/6/5/7/4) is also offensively challenged, but at 24yo (and $122,000!), I’m willing to be a bit more patient. McDonald is also an excellent baserunner and is worth keeping around as a fifth OF, lefty pinch-hitter and pinch-runner.

The one bright spot in our outfield isn’t all that bright on closer inspection: Antonion Canales (4/3/4/4/2) is very good at putting fannies in the seats, but at 37 years old, his best days are at least three seasons behind him. Luckily, his $7.9 million-per-year contract is expiring, and his request for an extension at a similar salary will not be granted by me.

Backups are immobile Curt Brown (3/4/3/3/3), a RH journeyman, and 33yo Matt Walker (3/4/1/3/3), who is Brown’s left-handed counterpart. Walker is entering free agency.

The only prospect worth mentioning is Augusto Hernando (7/5/4/5/7), a 20yo toolsy slap-hitting 20yo who is struggling to put up numbers to match his physical gifts.

That wraps up an overview of the sad state of the North Carolina Aeros’ organization as it stands at the beginning of the 2000 offseason. I’m going to work on getting an organization chart, and then we’ll move into free agency and hopefully be able to start turning this ship around.

[TribeFanInNC]

Wow, Rasmussen was pretty sucktacular last year. Somehow he still managed 95 runs even with a .288 OBP. He does have some history of success, although I agree - I'd sell him for a bus pass and a Coke too.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Organizational Chart
Game Date: November 1, 2000


Here's my organizational chart, as of 11/1/2000.



This is the organizational chart I use to keep myself a bit organizing while playing OOTP. (I stole the idea years ago, from TigerFan, I think.) Players are listed, by level, at their primary position, with their age in years after their name.

You can see from the color-coding key at the top that the talent level is pretty slim.

Players whose names are "struck through" (like RF Antonio Canales) have expiring contracts.

Players whose names are in red are players I'm planning on releasing immediately, both to create opportunities for younger players and to clear some room for new, younger talent. As you can see, I'll have lots of room for new draftees and for minor-league FA signings, so I can take some chances on some longshots.

One player of note is Rookie League MR Arnold Martin, who has an expiring contract which I'm trying to extend with a minor-league offer. Martin may be good enough to see some time in the majors next year, depending on how awful my bullpen is. If I can keep him as insurance for free, I'd like to.

Hopefully later tonight I can find some time to actually release these guys and start looking for minor-league FAs to pursue.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Beginning of Free Agency
Game Date: November 11, 2000

I’ve started the housecleaning by releasing the overaged, underdeveloped dregs of my minor league system: SP J. Russell, SP D. Sherman, SP R. Watson, MR D. Turner, 1B C. Murphy, SS M. Conway, CF M. Zamora, CF N. Weston, RF E. Ayala, SS L. Roberts, 2B C. Weatherly, 1B J. Montalvo, SP L. Fernández, SP M. Flint, SP J. Montoya, SP P. Murray, SP T. Wood, 1B M. Smith, 3B J. Kirkpatrick, 3B W. Phillips, 1B D. Benson, SP R. Drake, C P. Barr, C D. Calhoun, C J. López, 1B E. Barlow, 1B S. Pate, and 3B M. Morales.

In addition, a number of other players became free agents because of expiring contracts rather than a deliberate release: RF M. Walker, RF A. Canales, 1B R. Sandoval, 3B D. Simmons, SP J. López, MR M. Forbes, MR B. Wilson, MR D. Tucker, C A. Espinoza, C J. Navarro, CF D. Whitehead, 1B J. Washington, CF J. Curry, 3B J. Vallés, MR G. Williams, MR R. Pérez, MR R. Hicks, C R. Walton, 2B A. Rodríguez, SS J. Samuels, SS E. Ayala, RF J. Carr, 1B E. Bly, LF A. Shepherd, SS B. Jones, SP K. Hunter, SP D. Williams, C G. Miller, C G. Díaz, C P. Hernández, 2B J. Leonard, 1B W. Mathews, RF J. Lee, LF W. Cooley, MR J. Castro, and CF D. Hernández.

Nevertheless, the effect is the same – they’re gone. The only two that are really significant in any way are the two major-league outfielders (Canales and Walker). Canales’ departure is already hurting ticket sales, but he is 37 years old, and bringing him back isn’t even worth considering.

I’ve also managed to pick up a trio of infielders to minor-league free agents. The first is Leon Benabe (Talent: Contact 7 / Gap 8 / HR 2 / Eye 4 / Avoid Ks 7), a 19yo 2B/3B who was a very late pick in 1999 and has bounced around a few organizations in the past 18 months. The second is Montae Lambruschini (Talent: 6/8/3/6/6), a 22yo Italian who is an excellent 2B and is going to start the season in AA at least. The third is Norris LeBlanc (Talent: 5/7/2/6/4), another 22yo. LeBlanc has already shown a bit of a flair for getting on base - .369 OBP in AA last year – and is a great baserunning threat. He’s going to start in AAA at least, and would probably be a candidate for a major-league roster spot if he were more versatile in the field.

Sadly, this may be as exciting as free agency gets during this first offseason. I do have a number of other targets for minor-league contracts, but the owner has expressly forbidden any major-league signings until and unless payroll can be reduced.

As of the opening of free agency, here’s my organizational chart:



I’m not going to spend a lot of time promoting and demoting guys in the offseason, so a lot of these guys will move between levels as we approach Spring Training.

For now, my goal is to get creative and see if I can trade Tyler Wright and Mike Rasmussen so that we can get this franchise back into the black in one season rather than two or three.

[gordyhulten]

OFFSEASON ROSTER EVALUATION: Free Agency: November 2000
Game Date: November 30, 2000

Team Payroll: $18.34 million
League Average Payroll: $25.67 million
Team Cash: -$15.27 million
Team Budget: $26.86 million
Fan Interest: 49



North Carolina Transactions

At the beginning of Free Agency, my primary goal was to reduce my payroll, preferably by trading C Tyler Wright and LF Mike Rasmussen, who combined earn about $10 million. Wright is a decent catcher, but he’s old and replaceable. Rasmussen is formerly productive, and one of the league’s premier basestealers, but had an awful 2000.

I thought trading Wright, at 37yo and nearly $6 million in salary for 2001, would be the more difficult deal, but three teams expressed some interest as we entered free agency, and Colorado seemed like the best fit. Their starting catcher in 2000, Arturo Arellano, was now a free agent. Down in AAA, they also have the #63 prospect in baseball, C Ramon Rivera, who is 23 years old but not quite ready for regular duty in the big leagues. Also, the Chiefs are financially healthy, able to afford Wright for one season while waiting for Rivera to further develop. That said, they still weren’t willing to give me anything but Trent Rodgers (Talent: Stuff 5 / Movement 7 / Control 6), a 24yo RH MR who my scouts don’t like. In addition, after getting their preliminary approval for the deal, they balked until I included Anderson Hart, a 21yo corner OF who spent 2000 at AA Greensboro. Regardless, I’m happy to be rid of Wright, and hope he justifies his salary in the rarified air of Colorado.

For Mike Rasmussen, I wonder if the difficulty in trading him was due to the length of his contract ($3.89 million per year through 2003) versus the size, relative to Wright’s. Or maybe the former All-Star had reached such a level of Neifi Perez-like suckitude that nobody really wanted him. Either way, our good friends the New Jersey Curve expressed an interest. After discussing the deal with them, our scouts fell in love with two of their young players. The first is 21yo C Jose Cervantes (Talent: Contact 9 / Gap 3 / HR 2 / Eye 5 / Avoid Ks 8). The scouting services love his ability to make contact, but that’s about it. He’s been released once, and despite an .816 OPS in 2000 in Single A, wasn’t going to be promoted by the Curve.

The second player is a young pitcher for whom they had little regard: 22yo southpaw Tom Harris (Talent: 8/8/6). The conventional wisdom on Harris is that he throws hard, but that he has little upside; my scouts disagree, although his record in Single-A as a 22yo is troubling.

To get both Harris and Cervantes, I had to package Rasmussen with include another veteran, 35yo RH SP Cory Lewis, who has been a cheap workhorse in losing 30 games for NC over the past two seasons.

The two trades reduced my Aeros’ players’ salaries to about $6.5 million for 2001, which is about $8 million less than the next cheapest team. In 2000, we generated about $22.7 million and ended about $15.3 million in debt. In 2001, if we can generate similar revenues while holding our payroll to between $7 million and $10 million, we’ll be nearly out of debt, and able to participate in free agency a little more fully in the 2001-2002 offseason.

In the meantime, we have to find a way to avoid losing 120 games in 2001.

I also signed the following to minor-league contracts:

• C Jeremy Baldwin (Talent: 5/8/5/6/4)


• 3B Johnny Branch (Talent: 6/6/3/6/5)


• MR Malcom Slim Clyne (Talent: 8/4/4)


• OF Jose Davila (Talent: 5/8/8/4/5)


• RH MR Dave Lee (Talent: 7/6/4)


• RH MR Ryan Stevenson (Talent: 7/5/4)


• 1B Carlos Torres (Talent: 6/6/7/5/5)


• C Todd Wilkerson (Talent: 7/8/4/5/3)


• LH MR Dave Williams (Talent: 10/4/4)

Other Significant Transactions

1B Kyle Rice had a career year in 2000 for Kentucky, hitting 322/404/528. He cashed in by signing with Mississippi for six years at $4.69 million per year, which seems way too high and way too long for a good, but eminently replaceable player.

Excellent young 2B Albert Stoltz, one of the better young players in baseball, is inexplicably shipped from Washington to Tennessee in exchange for the very mediocre 31yo SP Jorge Vega.

The Texas Drillers traded 27yo CF Charles Clarke, who was just coming into his own before fighting some injuries this past season, to the Florida Oranges for 31yo MR Rod Nicholson and a scrub minor leaguer. This one baffles me too.


With Wright and Rasmussen gone, and a light at the end of the financial tunnel, it finally feels like I’m making some progress. I’m anxious to progress more through free agency, which feels like it’s moving slowly so far for the rest of the league.

HTML is generating, and will upload in the morning.

[Vris]

There is something funky going on with your links, Gordy.

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by Vris

There is something funky going on with your links, Gordy.

And.... I'm an idiot!

Fixed!

[Siv]

Is there a template of this posted.

[gordyhulten]

Originally Posted by Siv

Is there a template of this posted.

No. Nobody's ever asked, and I've never shared it. I hadn't really put any thought into sharing it.

It's a flattering question, though.

[Vris]

bump