Losing for Winning: A PCL Dynasty

[Mike Donlin]

How does a team have the best record in the league and not make the playoffs? Impossible, you say? Tell that to the Portland Beavers, who went 95-73 in 1920, four games better than second-place Hollywood Stars, yet stayed home in October.

How did Portland accomplish this dubious feat? The answer is the split season playoff format. In the Pacific Coast League, the 168-game season is divided into two 84-game seasons. The winner of the first half plays the winner of the second half in the playoffs. If a single team wins both halves, then the team with the next overall best record makes the playoffs.

In Portland’s case, the team got off to a blistering start, going 20-8 in April. They cooled off in May and June, but still found themselves three games ahead of second-place Hollywood with just six games to go in the first-half season. Then they crashed to the ground like an early Wright Brothers’ aeroplane. They lost six straight to end the season, including a three-game sweep by Hollywood, finishing the season three games behind the Stars.

Crushed, the Beavers picked themselves up and began the second-half of the season. They played well in July and August, but the Oakland Oaks, who were terrible in the first-half of the year, played even better. Then injuries began to take their toll. In July, the Beavers lost their left-fielder, Ryan Martin, for the remainder of the season. After a hot April and May, Martin had been struggling, leading some to believe that the hernia that ended his season had been bothering him for longer than anyone realized. A week later, the Beavers lost starting pitcher Jason Poe. Unlike Martin, Poe had gotten off to a wretched start, but in June and July he had been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Martin’s injury cleared the way for Brendon Davis, who replaced Martin and immediately started raking. The Beavers had more trouble replacing Poe, though, and when starting pitcher Carlos Monge went down in early September, the season was more or less over. Oakland cooled off a bit in September, but they still played well enough to cruise to the pennant in the second half--leaving Portland with a great record and a leisurely spot from which to watch the playoffs.

Portland was far from the first team to suffer from this dubious distinction. An earlier Beavers team, in 1913, led the league without making the playoffs, as had Los Angeles in 1907 and 1917, Hollywood in 1908, and Seattle in 1913. Oakland, meanwhile, has never finished with the best record, yet has made eight playoff appearances and won four world series. Asked about how he felt about losing for winning, Mike Donlin, the Beavers General Manager hired in 1919 to turn things around, was even-keeled. “Considering how poorly we played the last few years,” Donlin said, referring to the Beavers three-year stretch of bottom-half finishes, “it was great that we were in two pennant races. Obviously, though, it’s disappointing to play that well and have no pennants to show for it.” Waxing poetic, Donlin added that “What makes the split-season format so exciting is also what it can make it, in our case, so tragic.”

[Mike Donlin]

The context to the above post is that I started a Pacific Coast League in 1901 with the eight classic teams:

Hollywood Stars
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Oaks
Portland Beavers
Sacramento Solons
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Seals
Seattle Rainiers.

The league has modern-day financial rules, as well as four levels of minors: the Western (AAA), Northwestern (AA), California (A), and Pioneer Leagues (S A). The league exists completely independently of the real-life MLB. For all practical purposes, it does not exist. Scouts and coaches are on.

I began by simming twenty years and then took over the team with the lowest Fan Interest, a pretty good indication of futility. That happened to be the Portland Beavers, but I got lucky because the Beavers had a lot of good if not great young talent. As you can tell from the first post, after a few trades, I was able to compete almost immediately.

The stats are era-specific, so even in 1920 there aren't a lot of home runs, some strikeouts but not many, and lots of errors. It's still very much a deadball era. Four-man rotations. And, as noted above, the league plays a 168 game schedule split into two seasons.

I love small leagues like this since you can get to know the players and teams very quickly.

The next couple posts will bring things up to the present--i.e. the offseason before the 1921 season.

[Mike Donlin]

Going into the 1920 season, Beavers’ fans had five questions about the team—principally, who were these guys? When Donlin was hired in October of 1919, he cleaned house. Gone were starting left fielder Jose Galvan, second baseman Jarod Major, starting pitcher Harry Gibson, and closer Matt MacNamara. When the Beavers took the field in April, they had 5 new faces, including Martin in left field (acquired in the MacNamara trade with San Diego), free-agent Miguel Soto in centerfield, free-agent shortstop Palmer Reynolds, starting pitchers Poe and Monge (both acquired in the Galvan deal with Sacramento) in the rotation, and former set-up man Brett Peterson as the closer.

These new faces prompted the remaining questions, mostly about pitching. Who would be the #4 starter? Was the pitching any better than the 1919 staff, which gave up the second-most number of runs in 1919? And could Peterson could replace MacNamara as the closer?

Although veteran Steve McElroy, Poe, and Monge were guaranteed spots, going into spring training at least three different pitchers were competing for the fourth spot in the rotation. Rafael Vargas, who had had a very good 1919 season, was the inside favorite, and had a good spring, but not enough to hold back Russel “Maverick” Spencer, acquired from Seattle in the Jarod Major trade. Vargas started the year in long-relief and was subsequently traded to Los Angeles at the deadline.

Before injuries decimated their rotation, the Beavers’ pitching had in fact improved—immensely. It gave up the fewest runs in the PCL, and Monge, Poe, and Spencer developed into a trio of exciting young pitchers anchored by McElroy, who was having his best year ever at age 35 and would go on to win the Outstanding Pitcher Award.

The Beavers’ bullpen tells a far less happy story, though. As good as the rotation was, the bullpen was just as bad. It finished dead last in runs allowed, and the newly-installed closer Peterson lost 7 games and blew 4 saves—a large reason why the Beavers barely won more one-run games than they lost and went an astonishingly bad 3-9 in extra-inning games. If MacNamara, who had another fine season with Seattle, had remained, Portland might have been playing in October.

One last question haunted Beavers fans as the season began. Namely, was Palmer Reynolds worth all that money? In January, the Beavers signed Reynolds to a six-year contract that would pay him upwards of $48,000 per year—making him, by several thousand dollars, the highest paid player in the league.

So was he worth it? Offensively, Reynolds turned in another consistent year, hitting .293 with 33 extra-base hits and leading the league in walks with 110 bases on balls. As usual, the Angels’ Pedro Velez was better, but Donlin claimed he signed Reynolds as much for his defense as his offense, and there may be something to that, as the Beavers led the league in preventing hits on balls in play, due in no small part to Reynolds’ slick glove--yet more evidence that Reynolds was robbed of the Glove Wizard award, which went, inexplicably, to the Seals’s Will Wilcox.

[Mike Donlin]

After their disappointing 1920 season, Donlin was almost equally active this off-season. After flirting with signing star starting pitcher Tom “Hammerhead” Reeves, the Beavers ultimately passed. They did sign catcher Danny Holmes to an affordable deal and hope he will give them more production behind the plate than Steve Eldridge, who was again excellent defensively but had a disastrous year at the plate, hitting only .219.

The big moves came on the trade front. On the first day of the winter meetings, the Beavers traded Oakland minor-league infield prospect Mike Jackson, the inconsistent but talented starting pitcher Leonard Cooper, who had lost his job to Vargas and then Spencer, and career minor-league outfielder Roland DeGenville for a trio of prospects, most prominently catcher Joe Corbin, but also outfielder Jack Evans and reliever Terry Childress. Neither Corbin nor Evans is expected to contribute immediately, although both are highly regarded by Beavers’ scouts, and Childress will compete with the hard-luck Chad Prince for a bullpen slot.

The blockbuster move came a few days later, though, when the Beavers traded Outstanding Pitcher award winner and fan favorite 35-year old Steve McElroy to San Francisco, from whom the Beavers had signed McElroy as a free agent five years earlier, as well as oft-injured starting pitcher prospect Garrett Abbott and promising starting pitcher Jesus Garcia. With staff ace Sean Ivey turning 36 in 1921, the Seals wanted to make a run. McElroy will give them another ace in the staff, and while Abbott and Garcia are unknowns, scouts think they’ll be league-average or slightly worse. These three starters will make up for the loss of the excellent young starting pitcher Carl Elkins, who went to the Beavers. Elkins is 38-33 with a 3.41 ERA over the last two seasons. The Beavers also received second baseman George Young, whom they feel is one of the better, most consistent hitters in the game. In a little over four years of play, Young has hit .321 with good extra-base power. The Beavers also received infielder Dale Courtney, who has never played above Short-A ball but whom the Beavers scouts’ were impressed with.

Other than that, it was a quiet off season.

[Mike Donlin]

1. How do you pack six infielders into four cases?

Young’s arrival presents the Beavers with a bit of a log-jam in the infield, which is one of many questions going into the 1921 season. Russell Peoples had a fabulous rookie year at second base, hitting .335 and playing excellent defense. Reynolds is locked in at shortstop. Last year, Antonio Olvera spent most of the time at third, but he could not repeat his promising 1919 campaign. Eddie Galvin, who spelled Olvera at third or when Olvera spelled others around the infield, did play well, especially against right-handed pitchers, and the Beavers would like to give him more playing time since they like his bat. There is talk of moving Young to first base, but that spot is occupied by Gary Wise, who, unlike most of Portland’s young players, made good on his promising debut, hitting .300 with good power and winning a Glove Wizard award at first. Look for the Beavers to make a trade before long, perhaps even one involving Wise.

2. How do you pack five outfielders....

The outfield is similarly crowded. At the start of last year, Martin, Davis, and Soto were sharing time in left and center field. After Martin went down, Davis took over and hit like a man possessed. Soto turned in a good year as well, and he is one of the best defensive center fielders in the league. There is another wild card. Johnny McCarty, who came over with Martin and Davis from San Diego in the MacNamara trade, raked his way through the Western League, hitting .333 with decent extra-base power, and performed well enough in in a September big-league audition. He feels like he’s earned a starting role, perhaps rightly.

3. Who is Bill Wells?

Wells had a fantastic 1919 year, hitting .335 and playing outstanding defense in right. (He has good range and an amazing arm.) In 1920, the defense stuck—he won a Glove Wizard award—but, after a strong first half, his offense returned to the disappointing 1917 and 1918 levels in the second half, including an atrocious September when he hit .236. 1919 is starting to look more and more like a fluke, in which case Wells may be in danger of losing his chair when the music that is the Beavers outfield suddenly stops.

4. Can the rotation stay healthy?

Injuries to Poe and Monge hurt the staff last year, and the Beavers traded away a lot of their starting pitching depth and upper-level prospects (Abbott, Cooper, Garcia) over the offseason. Donlin has pinned the Beavers' season on his four promising pitchers. If one or more go down, the season could go down with them.

5. Really, the Beavers are going with the same bullpen as last year?

Yes. The Beavers did little to improve it in the offseason; they seem to be hoping that closer Peterson or reliever Prince will suddenly develop into stoppers. That’s a foolish hope to have. They could, ultimately, trade some of their excess, major-league-ready talent for a closer, but Donlin seems reluctant to do that. Indeed, one of the reasons he traded MacNamara, he has said, is because he didn’t want to pay his salary. But you get what you pay for.

[Mike Donlin]

In sum, what does 1921 hold for the Beavers?

“We’re going to try to have the best record in baseball,” GM Donlin said recently, grinning, and “and make the playoffs.”

[Mike Donlin]

I should post my house rules for those interested:

1. No more than 3 players per team per trade; goes up to 5 if you’re trading an established player for prospects.

2. Cannot trade players until winter meetings.

3. Cannot trade for Top 10 prospects from rebuilding teams.

4. Cannot trade players in the final year of their contract, except for other players in the final year of their contract or to contenders (no more games behind making playoffs than number of games remaining divided by ten.)

5. Cash can only be used in trades to overcome opposing team’s budget constraints.

6. No more than 3 trades per year, and then only during the winter meetings or during the week before the trading deadline.

7. Exception to #6: if a player requests to be traded, he must be traded within the week.

8. Cannot trade signed free agent until at least one year after signing.

[jtb]

Enjoying the thread Mike!

Any chance of a quickstart with this setup?

[Mike Donlin]

Originally Posted by jtb

Enjoying the thread Mike!

Any chance of a quickstart with this setup?

I don't see why not--except of course that I have no idea how to do that. I imagine someone would have to host it somehow, right?

[Mike Donlin]

We've started spring training, and I'll update as soon as we're finished, but I can add this now, which is that two of the prospects I got from Oakland--a catcher and an outfielder--are, now that my scouts have gotten a better look at them, career minor leaguers. So too the third player in the big San Francisco-McElroy trade, a third baseman/infielder.

The good news is that SP Elkins and 2B Young are for real, I only gave Oakland spare parts, and the third player in the Oakland deal, a reliever named Childress, looks like he might be as good if not a touch better than I thought. Nevertheless, note to self: be wary of very young players who have not been in the league for long and who were not drafted very highly. Chances are better than not that they didn't get a big talent bump, as I told myself.

I know that some people are ambivalent about them, but I love playing with scouts. It makes it seem so much more realistic and difficult: some prospects aren't as good as you thought, and even some young-ish position players--like my struggling RF Bill Wells--will be reevaluated and graded down over time. (That explains why he had a disappointing year; it wasn't disappointing--that's who he is.)

I never used to play with scouts, but Markus and team did a great job of implementing them in this version.

[Carplos]

Originally Posted by Mike Donlin

I don't see why not--except of course that I have no idea how to do that. I imagine someone would have to host it somehow, right?

I'm sure All Sim and PadresFan would host it, or even if not, you could use a filesharing service like MegaUpload.

[Mike Donlin]

Just a quick update to say that we're 34 games into the season, and yesterday (May 6th), the Portland Beavers are now tied for first with the surprising Los Angeles Angels, each with records of 21-12. (Los Angeles finished in last place last year. IMO, they can't keep it up. They've won mostly because of their pitching, and their pitching ain't that good.)

It seems like we got off to a slow start, but glancing back the Beavers were 18-10 in April. What's happened is that a bunch of teams are bunched at the top fighting for the pennant. Until San Francisco went on a 6 game losing streak, 5 of 8 teams were within two or three games of first place. In contrast, the remaining three teams--San Diego, Seattle, and, surprisingly, Oakland--have been just awful. Like losing 2 out of 3 games awful.

As far as Portland goes, like I say, it seems like we have a better record than we've been playing. It took awhile for the offense to get going. We lost our best hitter, Brendan Davis, for nearly two weeks when he bruised a cheekbone. (His son ran into him with a tricycle, god damn kid.) The other problem is our 3B, Eddie Gavin, who has been just awful. He hit .163/.213/.163 in April. I didn't even know it was possible to have a lower slugging percentage than on-base percentage, but of course it is if you don't have any extra-base hits. Fortunately, he platoons with another player at third, and he's really had a good first week of May, so maybe his troubles are over.

Our pitching has been decent. Carl Elkins and Russel Spencer, our number two and three, have been especially good. Our #1, Carlos Monge, has been only OK, a little worse perhaps. League-wide, offense is really up. In general, though, the starters have been solid, but we lost Jason Poe, our #4 starter, for a month--this after losing him for 7-8 months last July. I'm afraid he may be a little injury prone. His replacement, David Bennett, has been OK, mostly very unlucky. He has a .331 BABIP on a team with a collective .282 BABIP. Poe will be back soon, but my scouts think he's regressed because of the injuries, and I'm not sure he's much better than Bennett at this point. It's disappointing.

The bullpen has been as bad this year as they were last year. Like then, I'm convinced a lot of this has been bad luck. The bullpen has a .305 BABIP. Even so, our middle reliever, Chad Prince, who was especially bad/unlucky, has lost his job to Terry Childress, the pitcher who came over in what is now appearing like the very foolish Oakland trade. Oh well, at least Childress panned out. The closer, Brett Peterson, has been decent, all things considered.

I know it sounds strange to complain about a team that's playing over .600 ball, but there it is. With all the other teams in shooting distance of first place, I'm worried about a repeat of last year. Great overall record, never quite good enough in any single split season.

I never did sort out the infield situation, but a lot of platoons have given playing time to everyone. Same for the outfield, although Manuel Soto, last year's starting CF, is now splitting time and is not happy about it. Even more unhappy--"very unhappy"--is Ryan Martin, who got hurt last year and while injured lost his job to a youngster, Chris Griffin. Griffin is an interesting story. He was an 8th round draft pick by the Solons (Sacramento) in 1916. He had his big-league debut in 1919 and was just horrendous, hitting .198 in 88 games before he was benched. Yikes. That off season, he was the throw-in player in the trade I made with Sacramento for our then-left fielder Navarro, who was good but not great and making upwards of $20,000 in arbitration. Griffin tore up AAA pitchers last year, and in a September call-up had 13 hits in 26 at bats. Wow. He hasn't kept that pace up this year, but he's still been quite good, and he's an excellent corner outfielder defensively. Thus far, that's been my best trade. It's netted me my #1 pitcher, Monge, my #4 Poe, and my starting left fielder. The only mistake was giving Sacramento Aaron Norton instead of David Jacobs. Jacobs' defense is too terrible to play him in the field, and Norton looks like he might be quite good. Even if Norton does pan out, though, we'll still have come out on top.

As I think about trades, I have flirted with trading Palmer Reynolds, our VERY expensive shortstop, since a prospect, Ron Bunten, looks like he may be ready, had a fabulous spring, and is playing well as the backup at a couple of infield positions. Even so, house rules mean I have to wait until the deadline to make a trade, and the only team who could afford Reynolds is Sacramento. They have a great farm system, including some pitching prospects my scout likes, but they're also one of the teams in the hunt for the pennant. I would hate to trade them a great player like Reynolds and get nothing to help the team in the short term. My fantasy is that we win the first half of the season, which ends in July 1, and then trade him. I doubt I'll be so lucky, but that would free up a lot of payroll room for next offseason, when a couple of very good players, including a catcher who could fill my current yawning hole behind the plate, come on the market. It will be hard not to pull the trigger. The good news is that Reynolds has been on fire, with a .931 OPS. That ought to keep his value high if I do need/want to trade him.

Go Beavers.

[Mike Donlin]

After taking two out of three to tie Los Angeles for first place, the Beavers have played well and been lucky. We swept Seattle, including winning the last two by one run each. And then we hosted Hollywood who, after Los Angeles' seven-game losing streak, had moved into second place. We won the first two series of the games in extra innings, and we play the third today. We're now 9-4 in one-run games and 3-2 in extra inning games. That's as many extra-inning games as we won all last season. I would love to sweep the Hollywood Stars. Not least because as you'll recall, Hollywood's the team that dispatched us from the first split-season last year.

Go Beavers!

[Mike Donlin]

Win! We beat Hollywood 6-3! That's seven straight for us, and that puts Hollywood five games back. While we've been embarrassing Hollywood, though, the Sacramento Solons have won four straight and are now three back. And wouldn't you know it, we head down to Sacramento for a three game series. It would be nice to take this series, to say the least. It would suck to get swept, which would put us tied for first. I'll take anything in between.

[Mike Donlin]

Well, no surprise there. Our bullpen gave up two runs in the bottom of the eighth and that was that, we lose 5-3.

Just don't get swept!

[Mike Donlin]

Lost, 7-6. Carlos Monge had a bad outing. Carl Elkins on the mound tomorrow. Still one game up.

Don't get swept!

[Mike Donlin]

WIN!!!1111 9-3.

Thank God we didn't get swept.

Two games up over Sacramento, and Hollywood's won two in a row so they're three back. The first half of the split season is now over.

Hold on Beavers!