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OOTP Dynasty Reports Tell us about the OOTP dynasties you have built! |
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04-14-2014, 09:59 AM | #1 |
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The American Pastime - Baseball's Alternate History
I'm starting a new dynasty - The American Pastime (TAP) - that will eventually become an online league after I build up some history.
The main concept behind TAP is simple: replay baseball history with real players in a real-world universe where the leagues, teams and ballparks are all fictional. This will allow us to go in directions that MLB did not go, while keeping the familiar names and personalities from MLB's history. I'll be running the league itself on my website, so much, if not all of the content you see here will be duplicated there, but thought it would be interesting to post here too. This way, anyone who has interest can follow along without having to visit my site. As I do not want anything to be predetermined, I have come up with some methodology to handle some of the work to setup the initial league outline. Step one will be described in the next post. I hope you follow along as we take baseball history in a new direction!
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04-14-2014, 10:10 AM | #2 |
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TAP Setup Part 1: Cities
This is the first in a series of posts that will describe the setup and launch of The American Pastime, the new OOTP 15 league that will place historical players in a fictional, though historically plausible, universe that will evolve over time into an alternate history of Major League Baseball.
The initial "league" will be the Federal Association of Professional Baseball Players (better known as the Federal Association). The first order of business: determining the initial franchise locations for the 1871 season. The pool of potential cities includes any U.S. city fitting the following criteria: *Population of at least 20,000 according to the 1870 census *Located no further south than Richmond, VA nor further west than St. Louis, MO These criteria were reached based on having a large enough population to support a fledgling professional franchise and also being in the most densely populated, and most rail-connected portions of the country to accommodate the necessary rail travel for teams to reach their opponents. This leaves out large cities such as San Francisco and New Orleans which more than meet the population requirements but are too far from the other cities for contemporary transportation in the 1870s to have made it plausible for them to participate in the league. The methodology of determining the cities is based on using the lottery results from several states' daily lotteries. The three-digits numbers produced will determine which cities earn the "starting nod" for TAP. The states used: New York (Win 4, last three digits) New Jersey (Pick 3) Massachusetts (Numbers Game, last 3 digits) Pennsylvania (Daily Number) Ohio (Pick 3) Kentucky (Pick 3) Michigan (Daily 3) Indiana (Daily 3) Illinois (My 3) Those are nine states and nine cities will be chosen. In cases of "ties" the next earliest lottery drawing from the second state (using list above) will be used instead. The cities' chances are based on population with the largest city (New York) having a 16.3% chance and a slew of small cities having a 0.4% chance apiece. This chart details the cities and their chances: Code:
New York city, NY *................ 001 163 Philadelphia city, PA.............. 164 280 Brooklyn city, NY *................ 281 349 St. Louis city, MO................. 350 403 Chicago city, IL................... 404 455 Baltimore city, MD................. 456 501 Boston city, MA *.................. 502 544 Cincinnati city, OH................ 545 581 Buffalo city, NY................... 582 601 Washington city, DC *.............. 602 620 Newark city, NJ.................... 621 638 Louisville city, KY................ 639 655 Cleveland city, OH................. 656 671 Pittsburgh city, PA *.............. 672 686 Jersey City city, NJ............... 687 700 Detroit city, MI................... 701 714 Milwaukee city, WI................. 715 726 Albany city, NY.................... 727 738 Providence city, RI *.............. 739 750 Rochester city, NY................. 751 761 Allegheny city, PA *............... 762 770 Richmond city, VA.................. 771 779 New Haven city, CT................. 780 788 Indianapolis city, IN.............. 789 796 Troy city, NY...................... 797 804 Syracuse city, NY.................. 805 811 Worcester city, MA................. 812 818 Lowell city, MA.................... 819 825 Memphis city, TN................... 826 832 Cambridge city, MA................. 833 839 Hartford city, CT.................. 840 845 Scranton city, PA.................. 846 851 Reading city, PA................... 852 857 Paterson city, NJ.................. 858 863 Kansas City city, MO............... 864 869 Toledo city, OH.................... 870 874 Portland city, ME.................. 875 879 Columbus city, OH.................. 880 884 Wilmington city, DE................ 885 889 Dayton city, OH.................... 890 894 Lawrence city, MA.................. 895 899 Utica city, NY..................... 900 904 Charlestown city, MA *............. 905 909 Lynn city, MA...................... 910 914 Fall River city, MA................ 915 919 Springfield city, MA............... 920 924 Nashville city, TN................. 925 928 Covington city, KY................. 929 932 Salem city, MA..................... 933 936 Quincy city, IL.................... 937 940 Manchester city, NH................ 941 944 Harrisburg city, PA................ 945 948 Trenton city, NJ................... 949 952 Peoria city, IL.................... 953 956 Evansville city, IN................ 957 960 New Bedford city, MA............... 961 964 Oswego city, NY.................... 965 968 Elizabeth city, NJ................. 969 972 North Providence town, RI *........ 973 976 Hoboken city, NJ................... 977 980 Lancaster city, PA................. 981 984 Poughkeepsie city, NY.............. 985 988 Camden city, NJ.................... 989 992 Davenport city, IA................. 993 996 St. Paul city, MN.................. 997 000 1 (NY Lottery): 703 = Detroit 2 (NJ): 491 = Baltimore 3 (Mass.) 829 = Memphis 4 (Penn.): 182 = Philadelphia 5 (Ohio): 708 = Detroit 6 (Kentucky): 511 = Boston 7 (Michigan): 885 = Wilmington DE 8 (Indiana): 835 = Cambridge MA 9 (Illinois): 268 = Philadelphia Since Detroit and Philadelphia were drawn twice each, secondary results for Ohio (Detroit) and Illinois (Philly) were used resulting in 619 for Ohio = Washington DC and 803 for Illinois = Troy NY Both New York & Chicago missed out on getting an initial franchise. This is a situation that is likely to not last very long as franchise survivability is tied to city size and several of the cities that did earn an initial team will probably not be able to keep them long unless they perform very well on the field. Several cities with small chances earned a nod with Memphis, Wilmington, Cambridge and Troy all having between 5 & 8% chances of getting in. From a geographical standpoint, the league is skewed to the east (which could set up an interesting second league in the West at some future date) with Detroit & Memphis being the greatest outliers. The Troy-Cambridge-Boston group forms a nice northeast block while the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Baltimore-Washington group forms a nice block to the south of the northeastern block.
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04-14-2014, 10:11 AM | #3 |
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Sounds fun!
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04-14-2014, 11:19 AM | #4 |
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TAP Setup Part 2: Overall Thoughts
This really should have been part 1, but I posted this on my site's forum for the potential GM participants and the info is pertinent here as well.
Here are some overarching concepts for the league:
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04-14-2014, 01:00 PM | #5 |
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TAP Setup Part 3: Nicknames
The next step is setting up is determining initial nicknames for the clubs. In keeping with the era, I wanted to assign nicknames based on possible club names for the cities involved. I looked at the history of Cambridge, MA for instance and found that there was a big glass-making industry in the city in the 1870s. That led me to name the Cambridge club the "Glaziers"
I did the same for each of the nine initial club locations, trying to find nicknames that were not used by that city's professional baseball team historically (where applicable) and could be considered fitting for that city in the 1870s. Here's a recap of the process for each city: Baltimore - a reading of the city's history led me in the direction of a railroad theme. The first commercial RR, the B&O started in the city, so this seemed a fitting nickname that didn't fall into the familiar "Crabs, Marylands, etc" category. The winner here: the Engineer Club of Baltimore (Engineers) Boston - Some obvious nicknames jump to mind (Patriots, Minutemen, etc) outside the boundaries of the traditional Bean-related themes. In the end I went with the Brahmin Club based on the nickname for the Boston "aristocracy" of the late 19th century, thus dubbing the team the Boston Brahmins. As a further nod to this theme, the team owner will be Ivers Whitney Adams, who was a member of the famous Adams family (the two President family, not the Cousin It variety - that's Addams, but I digress). I.W. Adams was the actual founder of the Boston Base Ball club, which lives on today as the Atlanta Braves. Cambridge - as mentioned above, the Glazier Athletic Club of Cambridge is the official moniker of the club that the team's supporters refer to as the Cambridge Glaziers. Detroit - at this point in time Detroit was not yet the Motor City. I would have liked to call the club the Wolverines - George Custer led the Michigan brigade in the Civil War and referred to them as Wolverines (leading to the usage of the nickname by the University of Michigan in later years). Alas, there was a Detroit Wolverines in the NL, so that would violate my own rule. In the end I landed on the Woodwards in honor of the man who laid out the plan for the city following a big fire in 1805 - Justice Augustus Woodward - whose plan led to a coordinate system that birthed Detroit's "Eight Mile Road" by designating all points in the city originating from Campus Martius Park at the intersection of Michigan and Woodward Avenues. Memphis - this was an interesting one because the city had several yellow-fever epidemics in the 1870s (the first in 1873) that caused it to lose its city charter in 1879. So Memphis is likely to be the most temporary of locations in the fledgling league. Obvious nickname choices would play on the city's being named for the ancient capital of Egypt (Egyptians, Pharaohs, etc). I decided to go with something more river-based due to the city's location on the Mississippi and went with the relatively unoriginal "River Citys" based on the actual 1871 Cleveland Forest Citys team and one of the actual nicknames of Memphis itself. Philadelphia - While I was bummed about New York missing out on the initial launch, happily Philly got in because this city was a big hotbed for early baseball and to have it missing would have been a shame. Anyway, there were plenty of options here, even without being able to use Quakers, Athletics, etc. In the end I went with something honoring the city's place in the history of the U.S., and called it the Independence Club. The team will be referred to as the Independents. I wanted to use Centennials, but there was an actual NA team with that name in 1875. Bah. Troy - This city was always a bit of a mystery to me as it seemed too small to be a major league city, but actually had two major league teams (one in the NA and then another later in the NL). Troy was actually a thriving city in the late 19th century thanks to it being situated where the Hudson River meets the Erie Canal. It was also big in the textile industry. Wanting to avoid classical references based on the city's name (the NL team was the Trojans after all), I kept it simple and went with the Hudsons. Along with Memphis, this is one of the least likely cities to stick around for more than a few seasons. Washington - The nation's capital that along with Baltimore, Wilmington and Philadelphia forms the southern end of a four-city cluster in the initial setup. The choices here were fairly obvious, even with names like Senators and Nationals being eliminated from contention. I ended up going with Columbias. Wilmington - The last of the nine cities, and like Troy and Memphis, a location not expected to remain in the league long, Wilmington was a Civil War boom town that by 1868 was the nation's leading producer of iron ships and gunpowder and was second in leather and carriages. So something with a military bent seemed appropriate but in the end I went a little less militant and chose Tanners in honor of the leather industry.
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04-14-2014, 01:12 PM | #6 |
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Sounds great Legendsport... I'll be following.
I'm also rooting for Memphis and Wilmington, and hoping to see Buffalo get a team soon!
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04-14-2014, 03:24 PM | #7 |
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Very interesting set-up. I'll be following along.
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04-14-2014, 10:56 PM | #8 |
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Go Memphis !
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04-15-2014, 10:44 AM | #9 |
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Glad to see that some are following - thanks for the support!
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04-15-2014, 10:45 AM | #10 |
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TAP Setup Part 3: Team and League Evolutionary Matters
How do we determine which teams fold, how we trace team history/ownership for eventual human management, and other matters pertaining to league evolution in the 19th century.
When I was going over the concept for this in my head, I wanted to make sure that I had an outline to take the league through the 19th century as quickly and efficiently as possible while allowing enough time to enjoy this unique time in baseball history and building a backstory for the eventual online league to emerge from this foundation. Looking at actual baseball history helped a bit in determining how we'd start and give a basic framework for how we'd proceed. While not wanting to be tied to actual history, I did recognize that the somewhat "wild west" style of early baseball was only to be expected - this was a brand-new concept: an organized circuit of clubs comprised entirely of athletes who are paid for their performance. It was only natural that there would be both hiccups along the way and also no shortage of individual and entities "trying to horn in" once the concept proved to be potentially lucrative. As the NA evolved out of the amateur clubs of the 1850s and 60s, so too our Federal Association of Professional Base Ball Players (FAPBP) will emerge as the first professional baseball league. And like the NA, it will have its trials and tribulations and eventually, its successor (or possibly successors). Since the TAP universe is meant to be organic, I wanted to have some way of determining which teams "make it" and which do not. The first step in this was figuring out some criteria for success. The most basic, and probably most important, was money. Since a team has to pay its players, a team that makes no money and can not pay its players won't remain a team for long (this has been proven again and again over the years). Luckily OOTP does track finances, even in the reserve clause era, so that information will help. Another part of this is team market - the larger the market, the better the chance a team has to succeed as its potential fan base is that much larger - you need a smaller percentage of population to visit your park to fill it and make money. Obviously there are a lot more people in Philadelphia than in Troy - so the percentage of Philadelphians who need to attend a game and allow the team to be financially successful is smaller than the percentage of Trojans(?) who would have to head to the ballpark in Troy for that team to make money. OK, so that's the first issue - the question is how do we find the answer? Team Survivability What I landed on was giving each team a percentage score each season. The higher your percentage score, the better your chances of sticking around. The components going into the percentage score will be attendance, financial profit/loss, market size and owner. If the guy with the deep pockets isn't willing to reach into those pockets, your team may be written off as a bad risk. These guys were out to make a profit and could be very cutthroat where money was concerned. Therefore each club, at the end of the year, will get 0-25 points in each of the four areas: attendance, profit, market, and owner. The owner's ratings are randomly set by OOTP - I don't plan on editing them. So if a team gets a stingy owner, that's going to hurt. Market is simply based on the size of the city the team plays in and is relative to the average sizes of the other cities in the league. So a small city in a league of small cities will be fine. A small city playing in a league with a bunch of medium and large cities is going to score low. The other metrics will come out of the game and are easy to track. The clubs total score will be added up and a state lottery will be used to determine whether the team survives or not. Each team will use a different state lottery, so everyone's "magic number" will be different. League Size Changes I will also use state lottery numbers to determine if the league expands (contraction will be handled by the team survivability check). Smaller leagues will have a greater chance of adding a club (or multiple clubs), larger ones will be less likely. When we get to the 20th century this process will change as I envision league size remaining mostly static (at least at the major league level). So let's say that at the end of 1871 two teams fold from the FAPBP leaving seven carryovers to 1872. The "sweet spot" for league size will be eight (at least until we get to the expansion era), so the league will have a slightly larger chance of adding at least one team. I'll have to work up a chart but it would be something like this: No Expansion: 25% 1 Team Expansion: 50% 2 Team Expansion: 15% 3 Team Expansion: 7% 4 Team Expansion: 3% Using a state's pick3 type lottery each choice would get a range of numbers (like 001-250 for no expansion, 251-750 for 1 team, and so on). When a league does expand, the city choice lottery will be run to determine which city gets a team. At some point I will have to give larger cities like New York and Chicago that are without teams, better chances so the chart will almost certainly change (as it will also change based on city population changes). Tracking Team "Ownership" for eventual Online League GMs For those human GMs who sign up, each will be given a slot number that will equate to the teams currently playing. So Baltimore may be slot 1 in 1871 - whoever gets slot 1 will "own" Baltimore for online league purposes should that team make it to the 20th century. If it doesn't, its slot will be moved to another new team whenever a new team is added. So it is possible that some human GMs will be without a team in some years, but as this is the "pre-play" period that has no real impact as the human GMs aren't managing the teams, they're just following the league's evolution. Teams do have the potential to move to a new city - though that will not occur until sometime in the 1880s as teams were much more likely to simply fold up than to move. When I decide that a team may move, we'll use the lottery system to determine where that move occurs. The eventual demise of the FAPBP and the rise of rival leagues Like the NA, the FAPBP is a "player's league" with the players essentially being co-owners of the club. This didn't work historically, and it won't work forever in TAP either. So each season after the third year the "health" of the league will also be checked with the percentage chance of the league folding rising each year until it reaches 100% in 1880. At that point the ideal of player-ownership will be proven faulty and the power will shift to the "magnates" - those financial powers who had the wherewithal and desire to own and run baseball clubs. This will also give birth to the first true "league" - whose name I won't reveal yet. Once that "National League-style" league has been launched it will give rise to potential challengers in the style of the historical American Association, Union Association and eventually Players League and American League. Each year after the "League" is established, the chance of a rival will increase - by 1885 there is a 100% chance the rival league will emerge. Chances of a third league will also exist once the second league arrives but the third league's chances of survival will be slim - though there may be the potential for the third league to supplant the second league (as there will also be a chance for the second league to "kill off" the first league). War isn't pretty, but it can be interesting. Conclusion The goal is to have a relatively stable two-league alignment by the time 1901 rolls around. It doesn't have to be 1901 - it could be earlier, and it could be later. It also doesn't have to be a brand-new second league challenging a 19th century survivor - if two leagues manage to survive the 1890s, those will be the two who will go into the 20th century as the top leagues and play the first World Series sometime in the first decade of the 20th century.
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04-15-2014, 11:45 AM | #11 |
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Unless you're really wedded to the notion of using state lottery numbers, it would probably be easier to use one of the many random number generators on the web. This one would probably fit your needs:
Random Number Generator |
04-15-2014, 12:04 PM | #12 | |
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Quote:
I trust myself - but that doesn't mean everyone else will.
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04-16-2014, 09:50 AM | #13 |
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I always love your leagues and their setups. I'll be following along for sure. Although your premise is to stay with a somewhat organic evolution, the fact that New York and Chicago have no teams scream to me an independent city league in each.
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04-16-2014, 11:43 AM | #14 | |
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Quote:
The good news is that both those cities have a fairly large chance at any new teams that may come along - and once they have teams it'll be difficult for them to lose 'em (but not impossible).
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05-09-2014, 11:00 PM | #15 |
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bump... just because I'm excited to see this. I check for updates regularly
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05-09-2014, 11:05 PM | #16 |
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Troy is the Collar City
Back in the day, you had a shirt and a removable collar, the latter were made in Troy, so it was a pretty big Tri City area (Albany-Troy-Schenectady) Also, Haymakers is the more well known nickname
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05-11-2014, 03:29 PM | #17 | |
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Quote:
Thanks for following!
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05-11-2014, 03:31 PM | #18 | |
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I decided to go with a more geographical nickname, that's why I went with Hudsons.
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11-18-2014, 03:41 PM | #19 |
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1871 Recap & Info
It's been a long time, but I finally have launched The American Pastime. Since it'll eventually be an online league, I have added it to my website, so it has a home for its HTML reports, a forum dedicated to it and a homepage where I have laid out the rules and will post "annual" update articles as I progress. 1871 is completed - one note is that I changed things a bit because I wanted to ensure that New York, Philadelphia and Chicago all were represented in the initial group of teams. The recap of that season can be found here. For anyone wanting to take a gander at the HTML reports, you can get there via the menu on the league website OR just click here. The initial nine member clubs of the Union of Professional Base Ball Players turned out to be: Baltimore - nickname Engineers Boston - nickname Brahmins Chicago - nickname Lake Citys Detroit - nickname Woodwards Memphis - nickname River Citys New York - nickname Imperials (Empire City Club) Philadelphia - nickname Independents (Independence Club) Washington - nickname Columbias Wilmington - nickname Tanners This post is going to be a bit lengthy, as I want to include the information I posted on the TAP forum on my site for you guys here at OOTP, and it covers a series of posts I made there today. So brace yourself, here goes.... The 1871 recap is done and is posted on the league's homepage. In a nutshell, three teams had very good seasons (New York, Wilmington & Baltimore); Washington had a good season, Philadelphia, Boston & Detroit were of varying degrees mediocre and Chicago & Memphis struggled. Based on that, plus financial factors and the Great Chicago Fire (which destroyed most of the city - including the park and all the equipment of the Chicago club), here are the likelihoods of each team's folding: Code:
1871 WIN ATTEND FINANCE % FOR FOLD BALTIMORE -15 -28 -11 -54 BOSTON 7 -8 -1 -2 CHICAGO 16 6 2 24 DETROIT 8 22 4 34 MEMPHIS 28 5 2 35 NEW YORK -21 -13 -1 -35 PHILADELPHIA 6 18 2 26 WASHINGTON -5 0 -2 -7 WILMINGTON -19 -2 -6 -27 What this means is that Chicago's likelihood of folding is 74%, followed by Memphis (35%), Detroit (34%), Philadelphia (26%). Teams with negative scores are guaranteed survivors. --------------------- IL Resuls: 1045 - Chicago FOLDS MI Results: 2009 - Detroit FOLDS TN Results: 7151 - Memphis SURVIVES PA Results: 1490 - Philadelphia FOLDS Surprisingly (to me) - Memphis somehow comes out unscathed. They'll need to improve as they get half of their 35% chance from this year added to next year's score when we do the health check after 1872. In addition, a Yellow Fever outbreak in Memphis in 1873 will give them a penalty similar to Chicago's this season (25% added to their chance of folding). I've decided NOT to do the relocation check for the Union teams*. I'll revisit once we hit the first club-based league. * - Note for OOTP Dynasty readers: I have a rule in place for a 5% "save" chance at relocation instead of folding ------------------- With three teams folding after 1871, there are six member clubs left in the UPBBP. With 151 players available, that would *technically* mean we'd stick at 6 teams. However, I'm going to bend my own rules here because: 1) There were actually 11 teams in the 1872 NA 2) Team rosters were still really small So we will have four teams join the fold for 1872 to put a 10-team league in place. Based on random chance, the lucky cities are: NY Lottery # of 840 - gives a team to.... Hartford NJ Lottery # of 441 - gives at team to.... St. Louis** CT Lottery # of 032 - gives a team to... Brooklyn RI Lottery # of 781 - gives a team to... Troy, NY! ** Chicago was actually drawn, but because of the fire, I will give Chicago a guaranteed team in 1874 - as happened historically. If St. Louis folds in 1873 they will instead relocate to Chicago. I'm happy that Troy got in as it was a location for real clubs in this era when the city was a major hub on the Erie Canal/Hudson and the home of a pretty large textile industry. The new clubs nicknames: Hartford Colts (the Colt Firearms company was founded in Hartford) St. Louis Bluebirds (The Eastern Bluebird is the state bird of Missouri, can be shortened to Blues if the team survives, and it's a nice contrast to the whole Cardinals thing...) Brooklyn Kings (Kings County Base Ball Club) Troy Hudsons (Hudson Base Ball Club of Troy) This means the lineup for 1872 consists of: Baltimore Engineers Boston Brahmins Memphis River Citys New York Imperials Washington Columbias Wilmington Tanners Hartford Colts St. Louis Bluebirds Brooklyn Kings Troy Hudsons
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11-18-2014, 04:08 PM | #20 |
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Will the players enter the game when they actually played or will it be Random Eras?
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