Doublin' Down, with Ruben Amaro, Jr.

[jaa36]

Hello, I'm Ruben Amaro, Jr. You know, general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies? If you don't believe me, ask me anything from my wikipedia page and I'll prove it. Like, who was my dad? Ruben Amaro, Sr. Which team originally drafted me? The California Angels.

One impressive fact from my distinguished career is that I was a member of four championship teams. First, the Crispin Gardens Fightin' Tulips, in little league. Next: batboy, 1980 Phillies. Third was a member of Stanford Cardinal, 1987. I never quite won a World Series as a player, though I was a useless fifth outfielder for two pennant winners, the 1993 Phillies and the 1995 Indians. But in 2008, I was the assistant GM for the World F*****g Champion Phillies. It's been quite a ride.

Now, a lot of people have been critical of ol' Rube these last few years. But those people don't understand what makes a championship team. As you can see from my resume above, I do. It's heart. And production, which means dingers. And never going beyond three years on an extension for pitchers, except when you do. And knowing that when your left fielder looks like he's on roller skates when he tries to play his position, that he'll probably hit some dingers to make up for it. And that you never know what you'll get from a rookie, but you always know that what you'll get from a veteran is leadership.

So I'm tired of all the criticism. It's time to double down, Amaro Jr. style.

[jaa36]

I want to introduce you to my team, the 2014 Phillies. Now, the Phillies have had a down stretch these last few years. It's really hard to understand, because a lot of these guys are the same guys that won the championship in 2008: Ryan Howard (we call him "The Big Piece"), Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins, Chooch. Now, sure, they're older, but who would have guessed they would have gotten worse over those six years? I'm sure some saber-magician would have said something like that, but they don't have scouts like we do. And those scouts told us "these guys are going to be good for a long time." So when you hear things like that, you sign a guy like Howard to a really long extension to lock in his value.

It all starts with pitching. You may remember that just a few years ago, we had a staff full of aces. Well, Roy Halladay's arm fell off, and Roy Oswald's back acted up, and now we have just two aces and some other guys. First off, there's Cole Hamels. We call him Hollywood, because he's from LA and has some sunglasses. I signed him to a seven-year extension a few years back even though our team policy is to not go beyond three years for a pitcher, because he's just that good. And I intend to hold onto him. Then there's Cliff Lee. He's under contract for $25M these next two years, and then we've got a team option for $27.5M or a buyout for- gadzooks, $12.5 million? I must've messed up a decimal point on that one... I felt like the rotation needed another veteran, so I signed A.J. Burnett as the third starter- he's 37, so I'm pretty sure he's got a few years left in the tank. Then Kyle Kendrick, who I keep signing every years, because why not? And the fifth starter, this guy Roberto Hernandez who the stats guys told me to sign because of a FIP or WHIP or WAR, I don't really know.

The bullpen is headed up by Jonathan Papelbon, a proven closer who I locked in for four years a few years back. Him too, I knew organization policy was to not go more than three years, but Paps is special, and I knew that paying him an outrageous salary would keep him happy and productive. Then Mike Adams, who made a lot of money to not pitch last season. And then a bunch of young guys you can't trust, so I just signed Octavio Dotel (who's 40) and Pedro Feliciano (who's 37) to get some more veterans in there to show the kids how to play. I gave Feliciano a player option to sweeten the deal.

[jaa36]

Now the offense, I don't really know what's happened the last few years. Because I know that to build an offense, you need run producers, which means you look for guys who can get production, or runs batted in. The stats geeks don't care much about runs batted in (I call it "RBI" for short) but the only way you can score a run is to drive it in, and the only way you can win a game is to score a run- therefore RBI equals production equals wins equals championships, baby!

So it starts with The Big Piece, Ryan Howard. It would have been impossible to predict that he would have gotten really bad just after signing that huge $125 million deal a few years ago. I'm pretty sure he's still got some dingers in that bat of his. Then there's Chase Utley, who's still pretty good, and we intend to run him out there every day at age 35. And Jimmy Rollins, I'm still waiting for him to win another MVP award like he did in 2007. Our catcher, Chooch, was a free agent this off-season so I snagged him for three years- and a team option for a fourth year! Isn't that great?

I knew we had to build on that core, so I added another veteran bat this offseason in Marlon Byrd. Now, Marlon was with the organization once before, but he didn't know a lot of the things he knows as a veteran now, like how to really produce- he had a career high in home runs last year! So we got him for two years with a third-year option. Then there's Domonic Brown, who is still a little young for my tastes at age 26- he did hit for a lot of production this year, but I almost swapped him before the season for Alfonso Soriano, who knows a LOT about production, let me tell you. The center fielder is another young kid who I don't trust, Ben Revere, and I don't even really know our third baseman's name, but I definitely miss Pedro Feliz, Placido Polanco, and Michael Young- now THOSE guys were veterans you could count on.

[jaa36]

Well, we got swept in the first series by Texas, but this team didn't quit and is up to a 9-11 record so far. The bad news is that Cliff Lee, our horse, injured his radial nerve and will need surgery, so he's out for four months. I'll be on the lookout for a veteran replacement. Fortunately, we've got some young talent I can dangle in Domonic Brown (I never liked that guy), Cody Asche, or Freddy Galvis. In the meantime, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (who isn't old, but is out of shape!) will replace Lee in the rotation.

The reason we've won those nine games is on account of the offense. Jimmy Rollins has seven dingers and 19 RBI, Chase Utley is hitting .360, and Domonic Brown is hitting .338. Ryan Howard is at .288 with 2 home runs, and I bet he'll pick that up soon.

[eternal]

This might be your best dynasty premise since the Seattle Mariners Zombie Apocalypse.

I know Amaro loves his dingers, ribbies and veteran presence, but what's his stance on those other oft-overlooked-by-statistics-geek attributes, Grit and Hustle?

[jaa36]

Originally Posted by eternal

This might be your best dynasty premise since the Seattle Mariners Zombie Apocalypse.

I know Amaro loves his dingers, ribbies and veteran presence, but what's his stance on those other oft-overlooked-by-statistics-geek attributes, Grit and Hustle?

Excellent question from the audience. Grit is not a characteristic that you see in today's younger ballplayers. That's why I decided to make the move from a folksy manager (Charlie Manuel) to a gritty manager (Ryne Sandberg), to instill a sense of grit in the players that we have. Hustle is also very important- I require that all my players hustle at all times, except when they don't, like Jimmy Rollins. But he knows he's supposed to hustle, or I won't sign him to another three-year extension.

Now, I'm no math whiz, but to keep up with the nerds that do the Moneyball and WARs I did come up with a simple formula for how much grit a player provides. The owners will kill me, but if you promise to keep it a secret, here it is:

Grit = (Times you run out a ground ball - times you don't) * The Will To Win * Years of Experience * Percentage of uniform that is dirty.

You'll see that by this measure, we are a moderately gritty team, a lot grittier than say the Oakland A's or the Mets, but I think we can always get more experienced and thus grittier. It's simple math.

[jaa36]

Well, my biggest offseason acquisition Marlon Byrd just hit the shelf for three months with a torn thumb ligament. Fortunately, John Mayberry Jr. can step right in- he's not quite as old, but is probably almost as inept defensively. And even better, we've got Jayson Nix, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Darin Ruf as our reserve outfielders, so that should work out well. Carlos Ruiz also got injured, but Wil Nieves has ten years big league experience, so we're OK there.

As an aside, did you notice that I've got both John Mayberry Jr. and Tony Gwynn Jr. on the roster? It's always nice to have a gritty older player where you know his father was also an old gritty major leaguer- just like my father.

In the meantime, we've gone 3-6 and we're now 12-17 overall. Somehow, A.J. Burnett hasn't panned out the way I'd hoped and has a 6.68 ERA, but I'm sure he'll turn it around, with all the experience he's got.

[bobfrig]

How do you plan on actually winning a world series?

[jaa36]

Good news: we were able to acquire a valuable source of production in Mike Morse. I've had my eye on him for years, after he had 31 homers and 95 RBI three years ago. All it took to get him was Freddy Galvis, who just seemed to inexperienced to really make a difference. Morse was hitting .371 so far this season for the Giants, so it's amazing he was even available. He'll be able to help us out in the outfield, especially while Marlon Byrd is out.

Bad news: A.J. Burnett tore his meniscus, so he'll be out three months, and we're now down two veteran starters. Our rotation is pretty thin right now, consisting of Cole Hamels, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Kyle Kendrick, Jeff Manship, and Roberto Hernandez, and there aren't any veterans available on the market right now. Gonzalez is 0-5 with an 8.41 ERA so far, which is pretty bad even for a rookie.

Our team has fallen to 17-28 overall, but I'm still optimistic we'll turn things around. Jimmy Rollins might get that second MVP after all- he's hit 11 home runs already. And Domonic Brown is hitting .301 with 8 home runs so I might stick with him a little longer and see if he turns into anything.

[eternal]

Originally Posted by jaa36

As an aside, did you notice that I've got both John Mayberry Jr. and Tony Gwynn Jr. on the roster? It's always nice to have a gritty older player where you know his father was also an old gritty major leaguer- just like my father.

Nice observation. Although sadly a gritty father doesn't lead to a gritty son... just look at Griffey.

But now imagine Pete Rose Jr. actually made it and didn't turn into a career minor leaguer/drug distributor. The combined father/son grit and hustle levels would have been off the charts.

[captaincoop17]

Originally Posted by bobfrig

How do you plan on actually winning a world series?

He doesn't plan on winning a world series…just like the real Ruben Amaro

[baseballonly]

Phillies fan here, but this is hilarious! Great work, and you could be mistaken for the real Ruben Amaro Jr. Next offseason, are you planing on "getting younger" by signing 34-year-olds. How many years till we're ready for the 40-and-over mens softball league?

[phillyboy19]

I like how all the people doin coops prospect thing are reading this

[phillyboy19]

Trade rollins 4 jeter cuz he is the grittyist player in the league and maybe try for A-Rod while ur at it

[jaa36]

Originally Posted by bobfrig

How do you plan on actually winning a world series?

Again, an excellent question. Please keep them coming; I've always considered myself a teacher by nature, and I still work with some of the younger players on things like productive outs and being aggressive in the count- too many walks makes you lazy!

I actually just a wrote a manual that I called the "Phillies Way" and distributed it to our staff. Basically, it boils down to five key points, which I put in a very large font, and in bold.

1. When you have a choice between experience and a rookie, go with the experience. I consider anyone under the age of 30 a rookie. Dominic Brown, for example, is a fifth-year rookie this year.

2. Your corner guys should hit a lot of dingers- even if they can't play defense. Pat Burrell. Raul Ibanez. Domonic. Delmon Young. Those names spell "Production," with a capital P.

3. Prospects are good, because they can get you veteran talent. I learned a long time ago that you need prospects to get guys like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt. You don't just give them up for any aging star- you've got to wait for the right one.

4. If you've got a productive veteran, give him a contract extension while you can. If you wait too long, they can get away in free agency. With Ryan Howard, I knew I had to strike quickly to get him signed to that long-term contract. If I hadn't, I'd be paying him $300 million like Albert Pujols is getting!

5. Pitchers should try to pitch like really good pitchers, like Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. I had Kyle Kendrick follow Roy Halladay around for a year or two, and I'm pretty sure he's just about to turn the corner.

Anyway, that's my plan for taking us back to the World Series. I've been in baseball a long time, and let me tell you, this is what works.

[jaa36]

I've already solved one hole by acquiring Mike Morse. So let me tell you how shocked I was when Jack Z from the Mariners called me offering Corey Hart as well. He wanted Darin Ruf and shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford- but see Rule 3 in the "Phillies Way"- I know to hang onto my prospects for something special.

So I said, look, Jack, you know I want Corey Hart. You can have Ruf, but how about you take this other guy named Diekman instead? And he fell for it! What a sucker!

Hart brings most of what Darin Ruf brought to the table- production, poor defense, and injury potential- but is more experienced and gets paid more, so I think he's more likely to succeed.

In the meantime, Domonic Brown won the NL Player of the Month for May after hitting .326 with 7 homers and 15 ribbies in the month. This guy has the potential to turn into a pretty good veteran with a little more seasoning.

We're 23-33 overall now, but we've got a deep bench of veteran bats now and I'd take our offense and our production against anybody.

[jaa36]

One of my favorite days of the baseball season is draft day. It's when you get a whole new crop of prospects that you know you can trade for veteran talent later on down the line. Most of these guys are ten or fifteen years away from being a productive major leaguer, and I'm always thinking, I'm in this to win a championship THIS YEAR.

So I picked a guy with no future on our club, Todd Isaacs, with our first-round pick. He's a high school guy who's a good outfielder with no power- kind of like I was all those years ago! I had a lot to learn. I just wish I had hung on long enough in the bigs, because I think I was just about to get real productive. Anyway, I know lots of other teams will want him, just not me.

The next guy I drafted, D.J. Peters, is my kind of player. He's built like an ox and should play the outfield like one. I think he's got a shot at being the next Corey Hart, or Mike Morse. The bad news is, we ran out of money after getting the current Corey Hart and Mike Morse and probably won't be able to sign him or pretty much any draft picks other than Isaacs.

And more bad luck on the diamond- Cody Asche and Ryan Howard both will miss a week or two with an injury. I called up Maikel Franco to replace Asche- Franco was hitting .318 with 14 fingers this season, so I think he has a real chance to be a run producer four or five years down the line. I plan to break him in real slow over that time, like I did with Domonic Brown. You don't want to over-expose your rookies.

[jaa36]

We're running out of room on our disabled list, which is now populated by A.J. Burnett, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Cody Asche, John Mayberry Jr., and Marlon Byrd. Fortunately I've got some versatility in Corey Hart and Mike Morse, who can help fill in for Ryan while he's out, and provide some thump in the middle of the lineup. Despite the injuries, we've won nine of our last fourteen and I think we may be about to make a run at the division lead.

Our pitching staff is not doing well this year. Cole Hamels has pitched fine, but no one else in the rotation has an ERA under 5. I think this may be due to inexperience, and partly related to having a couple of wounded elephants playing the outfield. Nonetheless, we'll look forward to getting Lee and Burnett back later this year. Paps has been a good leader in the bullpen, he's got 18 saves and a 2.37 ERA.

[Izz]

[rpriske]

This... is... awesome.