Yet Another OOTP6 Dynasty: The Pale Hose

[NYJuggalo45]

well the explanation for the releases makes more sense now. and you kinda hit it on the head, strange moves that make sense. i guess the key is to always remember, the cpu ai doesn't know names, just ratings and stats

[cknox0723]

The Kansas City Royals were pretty darned bad last year, seeing as they finished with a worse record than that awful team from Chicago. They dubiously managed to lose over $6 million in the process, so you'd think that they'd be one of the more active teams in free agency. Instead, much of this offseason was apparently spent dwelling on last season, as the Royals' biggest move was keeping everyone's favorite journeyman shortstop, "Shane-Rod" Halter, in the division. With that in mind, it would be folly to predict the Royals to make many strides this season, but at least they'll be cheaper and younger.

Why Pitching Doesn't Win Championships

Remember, OOTP6 only knows ratings, not names. (By the way, it will be released when it's been fully tested and found ready!) So the names will throw you off here, but try to set that aside and be objective - like me, of course. Jeremy Affeldt hasn't had those annoying blister problems that so plague him in the real major leagues, and he's just two years removed from a 2.86 ERA and All-Star appearance. He is, however, gopher-prone, but even that doesn't hinder him too much. Last year's splits - .523 OPS against lefties, .877 OPS against right-handed hitters - suggest that he'd make a terrific LOOGY (Left-Handed One Out GuY), but for now, he's just another guy, albeit one with a lot of potential. Aside from one of the more interesting guys on the roster, the Royals also feature solid middle-of-the-rotation types in Miguel Batista and Jimmy Gobble (though J.G.'s strikeout rate was rather miserable last year), and solid front-end guys in Carl Pavano and Todd Ritchie. For a team that finished in the cellar last year, they sure have starting pitching that's a heck of a lot better than ours...

There's Using the Waiver Wire, and Then There's Using the Waiver Wire

Danys Baez. Pedro Feliciano. Chad Paronto. What do these three relative unknowns have in common? They're all waiver wire pickups, and all three look to be in the Royals' bullpen alongside such luminaries as Brian Schmack. To be fair, Tom Gordon and Nate Field wouldn't look out of place in a contending team's bullpen, and Schmack has had some success over the past few years despite iffy peripherals. But there's little depth to the 'pen and not much waiting at Omaha. I'm not a big fan of throwing a lot of cash at guys that will only toss 70 or so innings, but if there's ever a team where that kind of move would have been smart, it's this one. Enough innings at replacement-level will really hurt you, when it's all said and done, and the Royals will be painfully aware of this fact by year's end.

The Man In The Iron Mask

Chad Moeller may not be much, but as of now, he's the Royals' lone hope at the catcher position, mostly because the alternatives are Mr. Veteran Presence, Brad Ausmus, a guy who, in 2004, put up a .461 OPS in AA (Mike Tonis), and a 22 year old prospect who's never played above AA named Adam Donatchie. Moeller desperately needs a platoon partner who can hit lefties, but the Royals would probably be thrilled to get someone who can hit like a platoon partner, only worse, because they don't even have that.

Mike Sweeney's Aching Back

When Mike Sweeney got his rather large contract extension in the not-too-distant past, there were two worries for Royals fans. The first concerned the clause in his contract that would have allowed him to become a free agent had the Believers stunk up the joint for a few years. That hasn't happened, so it's irrelevant (not to mention that it's not possible in OOTP - but ignore that), but the second quibble is still quibbleable (able to be quibbled?). This, of course, is Michael Jack Sweeney's back, and whether or not OOTP knows names, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Kansas City first sacker go down with an injury. That, of course, would literally cripple the team's chances, as their offense is comically bad if Matt Stairs is at first. The only Royals aside from Sweeney who were even marginally above the league-average OPS last year were Kevin Mench, whose big head will supposedly be on the bench this year, and tanned, tested, and ready Marty Cordova. The rest of the lineup is filled with the typical replaceable dreck. David Bell, Rich Thompson, and Henry Mateo are precisely the type of guys you would want - on your bench.

The Royals won 91 games and the division in 2004, and fell 30 games and four slots in the division a year later. It's much harder to climb the ladder than fall off it, but the Royals' schizophrenic behavior in the standings in recent years gives them more than just a prayer. It's not much more, though, as they desperately need to rebuild their lineup and bullpen. They've got some solid prospects, most notably power-hitting second baseman Ruben Gotay, but they're all a good distance from helping out the big league club. For that matter, so are some of the guys that are purporting to start for that same club. That, not the typical "small markets can't win!" argument, is what will drag the Royals down. How far? Depends on how much confidence you have in the abilities of the immortal Shane-Rod.

PREDICTION: 73 wins, 89 losses, another long offseason

Craig

[Dagrims]

This really is a great read, Craig. It may be the first time in history I've actually rooted for the White Sox to do well. Not that I have ever rooted against them, either. I've pretty much ignored them for the past 28 years. In that way, they're like dentist visits. But I digress - excellent style and nice way of interjecting humor into the write-up.

[cknox0723]

Originally posted by Dagrims
This really is a great read, Craig. It may be the first time in history I've actually rooted for the White Sox to do well. Not that I have ever rooted against them, either. I've pretty much ignored them for the past 28 years. In that way, they're like dentist visits. But I digress - excellent style and nice way of interjecting humor into the write-up.

Thanks for the kind words. Since it's just another dynasty with moden rosters (hence the title), I figured I'd at least try to make it different. I'm glad that some folks have been able to appreciate the somewhat rambling style and rather offbeat humor. Ir's somewhat odd, actually, because I absolutely love analyzing stats when comes to the real major leagues (or minor leagues, or independent leagues...), but for some reason, I just can't get too deep into dynasties that are just rows and rows of numbers. I'm much more interested in something that's got more of a personal touch to it, whether it's your excellent foray into softball, Chappy's thing with his online league, or metsgeek's Random Chaos League (just to name a few).

I, too, have digressed. But I'm sure that's become expected of me. If not, you'll get used to it. I suppose you'll have to - same as those dreaded dentist visits.

Craig

[cknox0723]

The Detroit Tigers were able to erase memories of that wonderful 2003 season by winning 83 games in 2004. They regressed slightly last year, and they're not a whole lot more than an average club. But it is a nice change-of-pace to see a decidedly average club with a lower-echelon payroll - especially in Detroit, a club which always ended up as a big market wheeling-and-dealing team in my Mogul days.

However, there is a reason that I'm praising an organization for mediocrity. It's somewhat unfortunate, I suppose, but Detroit seems to be slowly slipping back into the foul pool that they were immersed in during the late 90's and early, uh, 00's. Among other things, the farm system needs to be restocked, and the major league club has some real weaknesses. But hey, at least they won't be losing 119 times. I mean, there's just no way that could happen, right?

An Argument for a 4-Ma...uh, 3-Man Rotation

The good news is that the Tigers' rotation features Rich Harden, who looks absolutely destined for super-stardom and is still only 24. Mark Redman is also back for his second go-round with the club, and he's a reliable number two starter who's nearly a Legend's Lock (TM) for a sub-4.00 ERA. Beyond that, though, there are more questions than answers. Josh Fogg has been kicked to the curb by both Pittsburgh and Florida in the past two years. The Rocket is obviously slipping at age 43, as his strikeout rate and hit rate went in the wrong directions last year. Justin Jones is a Rule 5'er, and Kenny Baugh doesn't look to be much more than replacement-level. Jon Connolly, the team's top prospect, is at AAA Toledo and holds promise, but doesn't look like he's ready yet. Mr. Dombrowski, dost thou havest John Schuerholz' number?

Where Scouts and Statheadzz Diverge

According to the scouting reports, the Tigers have a bullpen teeming with quality relievers. But I just don't see it. They've got some nice pitchers, that's for sure. But once you get past closer Fernando Rodney and veterans Toby Borland and Nelson Cruz, there's not a whole lot. Franklyn German is one of those lightning-in-a-bottle guys, but like so many, hasn't been able to harness it completely. And T.J. Tucker is just one of those guys who gets chance after chance despite little logic behind it. And he's listed as the set-up man. I don't understand it, but that's not to condemn it, either.

Step 1 To Contending - Sign A Catcher

The old adage is that you need a veteran catcher who can work with the young pitchers and hold baserunners in check. Apparently Pudge didn't get along with Josh Fogg or something, so Detroit management inked Mike Lieberthal to a 4 year deal this offseason worth...over $20 million altogether. On its face, it seems inexplicable, and looking at the Tigers' depth chart, it seems moreso. But considering the team is going to make huge profits this year, I can see the seeds of a trade being planted. It's almost irrelevant that the Tigers will end up with a pumpkin, in whatever form you choose. They at least deserve credit for trying.

Tony On The Spot

It's a sad time for Alan Trammell right now. He may have a man on the roster who shares his last name in Bubba, but what he doesn't have is someone to man his old spot. 23 year old Tony Giarratano has easy appeal to the fans due to his humble, blue-collar Italian-American roots, but that won't matter if he's hitting .200. Giarratano isn't the team's only hope - heck, they still have Omar Infante lying around, and he can certainly pick it, if nothing else. But Giarratano is the only shortstop in the system that has even a slight chance to be more than an offensive zero. His track record is spotty, but he shot through the system last year, playing at every level from A-ball all the way up to a 10 at-bat trial in the bigs. The rest of the Tiger infield is solid, with proven veterans Carlos Pena, Junior Spivey, and Adrian Beltre. But their contributions will be severely limited if the shortstop position hacks its way to a line like Omar Infante's last year: .246 batting average/.289 on-base percentage/.302 slugging percentage. Giarratano truly is the man on the spot.

The Modern-Day Nursery Rhyme - A Nook, A Reed, And A Rondell

While their names may be superfluous, the men that will patrol the vast alleys of Comerica are pretty lacking in that part of the game where you have to hit the ball. To be fair, the trio (Rondell White, Nook Logan, Reed Johnson) is strong defensively, which is of utmost importance in such a big ballpark. And they do have their limited strengths with the bat. White actually is , at least when he's healthy and not hacking at 57-foot sliders that land on the chalk of the left-handed batter's box. Logan may have a .299 career on-base percentage, but he stole 66 bases last year, so he doesn't clog the bases. So he's valuable! And Johnson, despite a .295 on-base percentage last year, does have some power, and he hustles! So he's scrappy! In all seriousness, the outfield has to improve on last year's totals, just through regression to the mean (which, in this case, is upward). But still, would Detroit fans appreciate a Trot, or what?

The Ferocious Felines, seemingly like always, don't have much help coming. They've got journeymen up the kazoo in AAA (So, that's where Craig Monroe went!), but the only prospect there (or anywhere else, to be honest) is Jon Connolly. The key for this season and next rests with Mike Lieberthal, which seems as unlikely as it gets. But some contending team will undoubtedly need a catcher, and Lieberthal is a nice chip to have. He'll net the Tigers some needed help. Unfortunately, that help probably won't be able to save them from dirtying their nice uniforms.

PREDICTION: 67 wins, 95 losses, disappointing Canadians and Fools alike

Craig

[NYJuggalo45]

those are some great previews. 1 questions, and this may take a bit of investigating. Where did Carlos Beltran and Angel Berroa wind up? Was it a case of KC not affording them?

[cknox0723]

Originally posted by NYJuggalo45
those are some great previews. 1 questions, and this may take a bit of investigating. Where did Carlos Beltran and Angel Berroa wind up? Was it a case of KC not affording them?

Yep, you pretty much nailed, at least in Beltran's case. He had a down year in 2004, so he stayed with the Royals throughout the year, but they couldn't quite meet his demands, and he ended up on the free agent market. After all the dust settled, he ended up in Atlanta on a four year, $32 plus million contract. By the way, his 2004 stat line was as follows:

.269/.352/.478 (That's batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage, for those scoring at home) with 56 stolen bases.

This was in Kauffman Stadium, a hitter's park, so it obviously wasn't the season everyone was expecting from Carlos. It was still a nice move by Atlanta to snag him for a reasonably low price, considering his talent, and he improved somewhat last year, as his three rate stats all jumped 20 or so points. I guess singles really are more valuable than walks.

As for Berroa - well, he's certainly somewhere. But I'll keep exactly where to myself because...well, you'll find out soon enough.

Craig

[cknox0723]

Jeez, just what is it with this division? I look at the Cleveland Indians' last two seasons, and I see:

2004: 74-88, 5th place
2005: 88-74, 2nd place

Enough already...I'm trying to do some prognosticating, and you've got teams jumping up and down the standings like frogs! Wait a second...that means the Chicago outfit is due for some jumping, right?

Anyway, enough of that, and back to the Indians talk. Unlike the majority of this division, the Indians actually upgraded during the offseason, adding former White Sockers Paul Konerko, Ray Durham, and Scott Eyre. And Dan Reichert, too. Four guys that used to play for us. Eerie. The number four, in my opinion, is definitely past the point of coincidences and oddities. Unfortunately, I don't see any logic to the Indians' behavior, except that these guys actually have some...talent. Moving on...

Thank Goodness There's No Poise Rating

Remember all the controversy that the once-imminent addition of the above caused? Well, I can't say I was for such an extension of the "Clutch Proven Veteran" rating, but it would have been interesting to see if it would have wreaked some havoc on this rotation. The Tribe don't have a single starting pitcher older than 26 years old, and they're not throwing Ryan Rupe out there, either. I'm sure you're familiar with C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett (That's World Series Hero Josh Beckett to you, mister), but Jake Dittler and Fausto Carmona, at ages where they could still pitch in the Sun Belt, both posted ERA's below 4.00 last year. That's not to mention Cliff Bartosh, who won 16 games last season and is rated as "ace-caliber" by my scout. But something isn't adding up. I don't know, maybe it's my inherent distrust of scouts, but I'm going to make an outlandish, incredibly vague proposition by declaring that Cleveland's youth will hurt them in the end. I'd better hope it does, because they certainly don't appear to be lacking in talent and stuff and all of those things.

Why Would You Copy the Yankees' 2003 Bullpen?

That is to say, of course, that the Tribe didn't just randomly end up with this bunch of guys. I'll assume they didn't, if only because that makes a better story. But the similarities between the Evil Empire's much-maligned collection of arms in 2003 and this motley crew are numerous. David Riske will play the Mariano Rivera role, and quite well. Aside from that, there are a lot of question marks, though Scott Eyre is a good comparison for the underappreciated Chris Hammond, and Luther Hackman doesn't need lessons from Juan Acevedo in how to be a replacement-level, back of the 'pen guy who gets bombed, scapegoated, and unceremoniously released. Actually, there aren't that many similarities, but I needed to say something besides the stock "Look, a team with a lousy bullpen!".

Rob Deer, Redux

Russell Branyan, of course, is Rob Deer transplanted to third base, but without one key aspect: the walks. Deer may have had some hideously obvious weaknesses, but he hit so many home runs and walked so many times that he brought value. Branyan's value lies in the long ball, probably moreso than anyone else in the history of baseball. Cleveland sees fit to start him at third base, and much as I have a morbid fascination with the Branyans and Hernandezes (that's Jose, for those of you scoring at home) of the world, there's got to be some logic behind it. In this case, there is - it's either swing-from-the-heels Russ or, well, Jarrod Patterson. But Branyan would have a lot more value to a team that needed some power - Cleveland can expect double-digit home run figures from Jody Gerut, Ben Broussard, The Man Featured Below, and former Royal Angel Berroa, among others, so they're not really it. Whaddya think of Joe Crede, Indians fans?

A Bit More On A Certain Shortstop

Since NYJ asked, I figured I'd provide some more information on the talented Mr. Berroa. (By the way, if anyone ever feels the need to ask about a certain player, team, or whatever, feel free - I have a blast writing this stuff.) One of the more surprising rookies of 2003 (along with Scott Podsednik and Reed Johnson) had a solid 2004, and was well on his way to a similar '05 - he continues to hack at anything within shouting distance of the esteemed pentagon, which would drive me absolutely nuts, but you'll take it when his OPS is near .800, he's a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, and he's a thief on the basepaths. Apparently, though, the Royals wanted to go in a different direction towards the middle of last season. I suppose his easily visible weakness, quickly escalating salary, and their up-close and personal view of the cellar were all factors. So they dealt him to the rival Indians for a couple more hackers, but at least ones that were less expensive: Tike Redman, a nondescript outfielder, and Ian Stewart, a nondescript 20-year old third base prospect. It's curious that everyone involved in the trade seems allergic to the free pass, but perhaps that's just because I've got such an affinity for it. In any case, I'd rate the Indians as the big winners in this trade, but give the Royals credit for trying, if you so desire.

As Baseball Prospectus Would Say, "Hidden Hitters"

One thing that's always frustrated me about OOTP is the nebulous talent rating. I've always felt that the player's results - statistics - should play a much bigger role than this seemingly subjective, random rating. For example, I've always hated seeing a player struggle for years only to put together a huge year because he's reached a certain age and his ratings are starting to catch up to his talents. I tend to think that there aren't many players who struggle (to various extremes), only to suddenly blossom into a star. I may be right, but Aubrey Huff disagrees (Check out his stats here), and the Indians' Ryan Ludwick does the same. His 2004 line was ugly, with a .604 OPS only driven that high because of 14 home runs in 374 at-bats. But last season, he blossomed into a star, dropping a .368 on-base percentage and .522 slugging on the league, along with 25 long balls. This may not be the typical path to stardom, but it's clear that there are guys like Ludwick out there, and I'm glad to see that sort of development in the game. It'd be a lot more appreciated if they were playing for Pittsburgh.

If this was Baseball Tonight, the Indians would be a sleeper team and Jayson Stark would be raving about Frank Tanana's work as an advance scout. But this is my preview, and while it might be tempting to pick a team with an almost limitless ceiling to actually reach it, I'll play the realist card here. Cleveland is missing that big bat in the middle of the order, and their reliance on youth to such an extreme makes me uneasy. They've got enough talent to reach or even surpass last year's win total, but it's not impossible to envision them in the same boat they were in two years ago, either. It's clear that they are a better team than the Detroits of the world, but they're also lacking that Sweeney/Pudge star player to carry the load. Like I said, I'm waffling back and forth on this club, and I've found that when you're torn between two extremes, it's probably best to just split the difference.

PREDICTION: 83 wins, 79 losses, "If they only had Shoeless Jack, they would have won the pennant."

[NYJuggalo45]

wow Cleveland raped KC for Berroa huh? Stewart should be a solid player, in like 2 seasons. And Redman is a leadoff hitter who doesn't walk and can't hit (atleast he is in real life with the Pirates). You should give Baird (or whoever KC's scout is now) and see if you can make it a gang rape, trying to pry some of those young arms from them

[cknox0723]

Originally posted by NYJuggalo45
wow Cleveland raped KC for Berroa huh? Stewart should be a solid player, in like 2 seasons. And Redman is a leadoff hitter who doesn't walk and can't hit (atleast he is in real life with the Pirates). You should give Baird (or whoever KC's scout is now) and see if you can make it a gang rape, trying to pry some of those young arms from them

Yeah, K.C. kind of got taken to the cleaners. Redman's the same guy he is in real life. Stewart may be decent some day - I'll watch him pretty closely, since he seems to have a lot of raw talent but also a long way to go before he reaches his ceiling. Similar to Ryan Sweeney in our system, and hopefully I can start to get some sort of idea as to how these guys may develop.

Oh, and young arms? Boy, Kansas City has 'em in spades. Colt Griffin...Brandon League...Ronald Bay...Brian Bass, all solid prospects. That'll go on the to-do list somewhere below "Find Middle Infielders That Can Hit". But not too far below.

Craig

[cknox0723]

And this is the argument against all of Bud Selig's nonsense. The Twins aren't one of those evil stathead teams, but they are a small-market. Yet their real-life success has continued on to our little parallel universe, with 84 wins in 2004 and 91 and a division crown last year. While every other team in the division has battled the pratfalls that come with a rebuilding effort in a smaller market, the Twins have just kept on winning and with that, moved to more of a mid-market. Well, good for them, and I'm glad OOTP is not mirroring the hand-tying that Carl Pohlad does. It's been a realistic progression, and continuing that, they didn't sit on their hands this offseason, either. While I disagree with some of their moves (ahem, 4 years to Darren Dreifort?), there's no point in questioning them, at least not yet. They're the ones with the hardware and I, like Barry Bonds, am just the poor sap on the outside looking in. For now, at least.

A Real, Live Major League Rotation

The Twins immediately have one big advantage over the rest of the teams in the division - they have at least four quality major league starters (and only four because I hesitate to call Joe Mays anything other than utter rubbish), and to add insult to injury, they have depth. Now that I'm looking at it closer, Mays, Kyle Lohse, and Torn Labrum Man (Dreifort, that is) may be getting the millions, but guys like Brad Thomas, Elmer Dessens, and Carlos Silva (all currently at AAA Rochester) aren't much worse. Well, we knew that already, and we also know that it's not wise to pay millions out for guys that can do roughly the same job as someone else who's cheaper. But like always, I digress - the Twins have two excellent pitchers in Barry Zito and Ben Sheets, and enough behind them to ensure that they'll have the best rotation in the division.

They Could Fill Up Three Bullpens With These Guys

I'm not real interested in extolling the virtues of yet another lousy bullpen (Sense a theme in this division? It's really, really bad!). I mean, they have their bright spots - Joe Nathan made the All-Star team because he is now a Proven Closer and had the requisite save totals ... Jesse Crain allowed only 1 home run in 68.2 innings and still had an ERA over 4 ... Mike Stanton, Veteran Leader will set up... That's all well and good, but their AAA bullpen is actually a lot more interesting than Juan Rincon and Aaron Fultz. Why? Well, for starters, Grant Balfour has a great name and as much potential as a 28 year old with a career ERA over 5.00 can have. But, as Ron Popeil might say, "Wait, there's more!". There's Proven Veteran LOOGY Buddy Groom, sort-of Proven Closer Lance Carter (who's ended up down there because he was a DIPS victim in 2004 - 97 hits in 77 innings), and some other warm bodies of various interest. I'm not exaggerating when I say that the bullpen for their top farm club could easily outperform mine - and perhaps theirs.

The Good Old Age-22 Breakout Season

Conventional sabermetric wisdom says that a player's prime year is their age 27 season. This may or may not be correct, but it's at least a reasonable estimate. But Joe Mauer looks poised to break out this season, his third in the bigs. The hitch is that he's still just 22 years old. He scuffled in his rookie year, back in 2004, and nearly all of his value was in a strong walk rate and his throwing arm. Last year, the walk rate dropped a bit, to about one every ten at-bats, but he decreased his strikeout rate considerably. With that, his batting average jumped sixty points to nearly .300, and he doubled his output of doubles. If Mauer can continue to identify pitches that he can drive into the gaps, he could make a run for a batting title -- this year. The only hope for me, purely from the perspective of the GM of a rival, is that he's a tall catcher, and they don't really develop well. But somehow I think that's a longshot, and I like seeing good players develop anyway.

The Sucking Mass That Is...Torii Hunter?

The Human Highlight Reel, to recycle an old nickname, broke onto the scene with a whole, well, reel of amazing plays in 2002. It was not widely-publicized just how much he struggled in 2003, but it was bad enough that he was only an above-average center fielder because of his excellent defense. At the very least, his walk rate spiked upward, so there was hope. Flash forward to now, two years later. Hunter is back to the hacker that he was early in his career, and last year, his power couldn't even make him worthwhile. His final numbers were ugly, and while he was decent enough against left-handers, his numbers against northpaws tell the tale pretty well - .198 average, .236 on-base, .340 slugging. Donnie Sadler would be proud. Anyhow, the Twins are absolutely desperate for Torii to bounce back. In fact, they're banking on it, because he's the number two hitter, and not out of choice. In addition to the aforementioned Golden Gopher, the Twins still have Corey Koskie and Shannon Stewart, and Michael Cuddyer has a nice power stroke, even if his position/spot (to borrow NYJuggalo's phrase) is yet to be determined. But they're also planning on handing lots and lots of AB's to Lew Ford, who might give them a league-average OPS (sounds good, but he's their right fielder, and I don't need to tell you that you want a bat there), Rule 5 Pick Casey McGehee (remember Torii Hunter's numbers? McGehee's peak is probably somewhere in that area), and banjo-hitting middle infielder Jason Bartlett. So all that means, basically, is that they're going to be lacking in the hitting department. Hunter may not be Kirby, but he can't be Bobby Mitchell, either.

Jacque Jones, Cristian Guzman, and J.C. Romero aren't stars, but they were key members of last year's division winner. With those three on to greener pastures in Chicago (no, not that Chicago! I'm not that sneaky!), Los Angeles, and Boston, respectively, this club now has some notable holes in it. A trade or two could do a lot of good, and with their starting pitching, it'd be foolish to completely discount them. But they're just not the so-called powerhouse that they once were, and that's giving them all the credit in the world for their track record. Still, can I really pick the Indians to win the division?

PREDICTION: 86 wins, 76 losses, one frustrated Greek mathematician

Craig

[cknox0723]

If you don't know what's happened this offseason for the hometown Chicago White Sox, I have no idea how you're now reading this post, but here's the Cliff's Notes version anyway:

Cry poor.
Kick everyone making over a million bucks to the curb.
Make all the scouts throw a fit by getting rid of everyone who didn't put up huge stats.
Bring in a whole bunch of cheap pitchers.
Wait 'til next year.

Except it doesn't have to be that way. I may not be the best GM, and I know that my managing skills aren't teriffic. But what we do have is heart! And fortitude! And intangibles! So even if we don't win, it'll be a fun ride, instead of just playing out the string.

Buerhle and Loaiza and Pray For...Consecutive Off Days

Now this is why OOTP needs to add in rainouts (not just rain delays), STAT! I've little to worry about when my top two pitchers take the mound, as Mark Buerhle and Esteban Loaiza would be aces on most teams. They're a great one-two punch. Aside from that, Jon Garland is in a pivotal year. He's never put up great numbers, but has always had youth on his side. However, even the scouts have soured on him now, so I don't know how much patience I can have with him. Jorge DePaula seems to make a much better number three starter, though it remains to be seen how much he may have benefitted from the 'halo effect' that's always present in New York. Nate Cornejo, the projected fifth starter, has put up some decent ERA's. With that said, he's pretty close to nothing - he doesn't strike anyone out, doesn't have great control to compensate, and is generally hittable. That's still probably more than we had, so we might be back to having something.

And The Bullpen-By-Committee, The Brainchild of Bill James, Blows Yet Another Save...

When the Red Sox, led by The Man himself (as well as Boy Theo), tried to put one of The Man's theories into practice early last season, the media was all over it. As would be expected, the idea of optimizing a bullpen's usage by throwing the best pitchers out there in key situations (not just when there was a sace to be had) was blasphemy to most baseball talking-heads. I guess the term "bullpen-by-committee" was easier to digest, and to be fair, it's not a complete misnomer. But this was all irrelevant, as Grady Little (Best. Manager. Ever.) turned Brandon Lyon, then B.K. Kim into the team's closer. That situation is only relevant because the same ideas are going to be implemented on the South Side of Chicago in 2006, with one important difference. If anything is ever to be called a "bullpen-by-committee", it's this amalgam of castoffs and wanton souls. I don't have any idea who I plan on making the "relief ace", or anything beyond that. All I know for sure is that P.J. Bevis will be on the roster the entire season, and that's because the rules say he will. But if I ever do figure out the talented pitchers in this group, then they'll be used in tie games in the seventh, I promise you that.

Championship Teams Are Strong Up The Middle

I'm really not entirely sure whether this media myth holds water. For every example (2003 Marlins, any Yankees team of recent vintage), there's a counterexample (2002 Angels, 2001 Diamondbacks). But assume for a second that you need to be strong at the positions where talent is much harder to come by. That would lead us to think that the Pale Hose are in deep trouble this year, which makes me think that the theory makes sense. And it's absolutely astounding just how poor we are up the middle. Mike Piazza is 37 years old, and his OPS has declined each of the last five years. That's without mentioning the fact that his throwing arm is the punchline of many jokes. (Know a good one? Shoot me a PM, and you might just make a guest appearance in my next post!) Miguel Olivo is the backup, and can't play much more than once a week because, against right-handers, his bat invokes fond memories of the deadball era. Other than that, though, he's a fine, fine catcher. I've already wasted too many words on our second baseman, The Out-Sucking Machine that is Juan Uribe, and our shortstop, the Violently Hacktastic Julio Lugo. But Enrique Wilson is the alternative, so those guys will be playing. Finally, Joe Borchard is in centerfield, and he gives us some hope, since he can hit the long ball. Of course, if his on-base percentage is .291 like it was last season, it won't matter how many homers he hits. But I can rest easy knowing that the media is wrong about almost everything, and this "strength up the middle" thing probably isn't an exception. Of course, that really doesn't matter for us, but I can at least pretend it does.

If This Was Softball, We'd Be In Great Shape

I really do wish we could play a fourth outfielder, because we certainly have four players that could start most anywhere. Normal logic in this sort of dynastic foray would be to trade Magglio Ordonez and his nearly $10 million contract, but he's a career South Sider, and I can't realistically see that happening, so he will be my right fielder and number three hitter for a long time, I hope. Dmitri Young, our last minute free agent signing, slots into left field for now. He's a left fielder as much as I'm a grapefruit, but the man can hit, and Frank Thomas isn't going to move from first base. So D.Y. will lumber around in the pasture, with Joe Borchard making up for his neighbor's misadventures. Of course, this leaves 24 year old Jeremy Reed riding the pine. Reed may not be completely well-rounded like his real-life counterpart (insert link here), but he slugged .500 in 278 at-bats last season, and he's fast and excellent defensively to boot. For now, he'll be a superb bat off the bench, but he has options, so I might explore sending him to Charlotte as well. Time shall tell, but this is the one area that I'm confident about.

Boy, our rotation, our bullpen, our lineup, our bench. All in all, I can safely say that I don't have a lot of confidence in any of the above. We have our strengths - some good pitchers, my adherence to what I think is a bullpen strategy that will help us, and some decent bats. I'm willing to make deals, and this isn't exactly a division full of heavyweights. And since it's my first year and my first dynasty, I may as well do something completely asinine. I'd trade for Jeff Weaver, but then I'd have 1000 people on my back. And I'd play the Steinbrenner card and rip off the AI for Mark Prior and Roy Halladay and Javy Vazquez, but I'd be bored of that real quick. So failing all of that (and finding a market for Ryan Sweeney), I've only got one possibility left.

PREDICTION: 88 wins, 74 losses, one division crown, one playoff drubbing, 1000 replies

Craig

[NYJuggalo45]

quick question....Crede and Konerko still man the corners?

And 1 point...your decision to kill the DH seems to have hurt the major strength of your team...the ability to put a power hitter who can't play a lick of defense at the plate 4 times a game (see Thomas, Piazza, DY, etc)

[cknox0723]

Yep, Crede and Thomas are at the corners. And yes, I'm regretting getting rid of the DH already, since I don't really have a spot for Reed and D.Y. isn't much of an outfielder. But I figure if I change it now, I'd be giving myself a bit of an advantage over the AI, which I'm not looking to do. Plus, I just love double-switching.

I'm hoping to start the season tomorrow - I've still got one more spot on the 25-man roster open, and am trying to decide between Brian Buchanan and Matt Diaz. Diaz, since he is a decent outfielder (whereas Buchanan is merely a first baseman), has a slight edge, but Buchanan can mash lefties, which might been nice with 2 outs in a 1-run game in the eighth.

I'll toss out a peak into the future, too - I hope to trade some lower-level talent in the minors to get some more guys like Hector Made that can produce a bit. I'm specifically looking at moving the "scouts' guys", the underdeveloped ones like Ryan Sweeney and Rob Valido. Hopefully I can pick up a third baseman - I have a feeling Crede is going to flail away the first few months, and Jose Hernandez just isn't going to cut it.

Craig

[darkcloud4579]

Originally posted by cknox0723
I'm a Baseball Mogul vet, so it's only natural that for my first OOTP dynasty I do what I did so many times with BBM. After getting the 6.01 patch, I simulated until I found a team craptastic enough for me to want to try to turn around. It's October the 4th of '05, and I've found just the club - the Chicago White Sox. But aren't the Sox pretty darned good in real life? After all, they've been over .500 the last few years...they've got a good shot at the division this year, too. What could have possibly happened? I guess we shall see...

Craig

BBM writers unite You were one of the loyal readers of my old Centurion Dynasty in BBM2K3. You've got a great style going here, fun read.

[cknox0723]

Originally posted by darkcloud4579
BBM writers unite You were one of the loyal readers of my old Centurion Dynasty in BBM2K3. You've got a great style going here, fun read.

Indeed, Ron - quite a blast from the past. I've been reading your dynasties on here, too - enjoyable as always. Certainly appreciate the compliment.

(Update tonight ! Anybody ready for some Opening Day baseball?)

EDIT: OK, not quite. I was too busy downloading Ankit's stadiums, which look awfully nice. But tomorrow, perhaps - or Monday, or Tuesday...in any case, you'll be the first to know once we actually play Kansas City.

Craig

[cknox0723]

It's Opening Day, and in a fit of clarity, I lower the ticket prices to $5. It's part of my harebrained scheme to bring fans out to the ballpark, at least for one day. And as I peruse the Royals' lineup, it looks like the hometown club just might have a shot. Kansas City's lineup should be a bit odd since they're facing the left-handed Mark Buerhle, but Henry Mateo in right field, Carlos Febles at short, and Miguel Cairo at third? Hmmm...interesting.

Oh, look - only twenty two thousand and change show up, less than half of full capacity. This year might just be longer than Fernando Hernandez's name.

But the old adage is that you can tell how a year's going to go by the first batter. Well, I sure hope that's true, because Mark Buerhle starts off the 2006 season by firing an 89 mile per hour fastball past Carlos Febles on a 3-2 pitch. The next batter, Miguel Cairo immediately puts a damper on my thoughts of grandeur by lining a rocket up the middle for a single, but Buerhle retires Mike Sweeney and Marty Cordova without too much trouble, and we're through my first half-inning without giving up a run.

In the bottom half, Julio Lugo leads off with a single, and after a fielder's choice and a Magglio Ordonez single, Frank Thomas steps up.

"The pitch to the Big Hurt is swung on and lined into short center field...Mench hustles in, dives and makes an incredible catch! Dmitri Young, like everyone else in the stadium, thought that ball would drop in and is in the area of third base as Carlos Febles receives the throw in from Mench and steps on second base to complete the double play. What a fantastic play by the 28 year old Delaware native!"

The game proves to be a pitcher's duel, with no runner advancing further than second base until the seventh. The greatest threat was in our half of the sixth, but Mike Piazza flew out with runners at first and second and two out. In the top of the seventh, Mike Sweeney and Marty Cordova lead off with base hits. Mark Buerhle had cruised to this point, so I normally wouldn't pull him. But in this case, I had to, as Buerhle was apparently injured at some point during the inning. Mr. Zero, Shingo Takatsu, then enters. These are dire straits, two on and no one out, so I'm thrilled when he induces David Bell to tap a 1-2 sinker to short. Of course, the ball evades the glove of Julio Lugo - so much for the routine 6-4-3 -and the run scores, everyone's safe, and Lugo has just gotten in my doghouse. Too bad Enrique Wilson won't be any better. A few batters later, the floodgates open, as Chad Moeller, Tike Redman, and Eric Owens all hit singles. We're only bailed out when Owens tries to steal second and Mr. Piazza guns him out with one of his dying quails - irony, much? But the damage is done.

As it turns out, the Royals add some more runs late, most of it due to the long ball. David Bell hits a two-run shot off of Kiko Calero, and Chad Moeller added a solo shot courtesy of a hanging curve from Rule 5 pick P.J. Bevis, who also walked in a run. But it's all irrelevant, as Carl Pavano makes us look silly, and someone named David Sanders dominates the last three innings to earn one of those cheap saves. Yep, White Sox baseball is definitely back.

FINAL SCORE: KC 8 - CHW 0

WP: C. Pavano (1-0) - 6 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 K
LP: M. Buerhle (0-1) - 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
S: D. Sanders (1) - 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Game Ball Goes To ... Carl Pavano, who was absolutely dominant and never really gave me a chance to show off my managerial skills...

Craig

[NYJuggalo45]

ouch tough opening day for the ChiSox. Gotta love DY showing off the brains in his 1st game in a Chicago uniform, although it sounds like he didnt have a shot. And that bullpen of yours....wonderful day

Hopefully Buehrle isn't hurt too long